저자: Library Of Wealth · 외국인
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to demonstrate this is in all of this chaos if Bitcoin or crypto Assets in general were truly a legitimate off-ramp and salvation from US dollar hegemony and all of this stuff why isn't Bitcoin at least at 35 000 a coin right now it's barely above 28 000 it really hasn't moved that much and I think the real answer is that most people in Bitcoin are not trying to hedge their existing fiat currency exposure they're just picking off people in retail [ chamoth from the all in podcast giving his thoughts on the current state of the economy the fed's excess money Printing and the impact of Bitcoin on a global scale while acknowledging the importance of having winners and losers in a well-functioning society shamath criticizes the fed's current practice of printing money to create a society without either he says this practice reinforces the US Dollar's dominance and increases other countries dependence on it in times of stress one of the key failures reported of the FED recently was risk management for nearly a year Central Bank leaders have aggressively hiked interest rates to curb inflation while this may have been the right policy decision it placed stress on the banks the FED did not test Banks last year to check if they were handling this headwind and shamath has pointed out the recent banking crisis has shown us the consequence of that let's check out the latest interview with shamath and the all-in podcast mmt yes I am was in hindsight idiotic in the moment it never quite made sense but in hindsight it's clearly idiotic and I think that we can properly dispense with that but the reason that we print so much money is sort of what free Brook says which is that we just want a well-functioning society and the simplest and shortest way to do that is to make sure that there aren't any winners and lose anymore and the most effective way to do that in the markets is with money print a bunch of money and there are no more winners and losers and so everybody can kind of win some people may may win more but nobody really ever loses so I think that's the that's the mo that we're operating under the thing is there's something unhealthy to that your mouth you're sort of alluded yeah but no losers that's a more philosophical and a commentary on capitalism and a bunch of other things and you're right I don't think it makes sense I do think you need winners and losers to really make Society function well but the other part of it is like does it reinforce or does it decay U.S dollar hegemony and I think it actually reinforces it and the reason is just very practically speaking when you look at how dependent other people other countries are on the US dollar in times of stress they actually become more dependent and that has a lot to do with their boring patterns the amount of dollars central banks need outside the United States and so what did you see in a moment of stress actually the FED opened up swap lines to all the central banks that they work with uh their most important operating partner so Europe Canada Japan Etc Switzerland and they moved the liquidity window from weekly to daily and they pounded the swap lines so I don't know I think that most people that that kind of like it's like a boy crying wolf maybe at some point somebody will be right but you're gonna lose so much money trying to take a point of view around this topic that it's more practical to just look at Dollar flows and dollar flows go up in moments of stress not go down and they go up in a distributed manner across the monetary Plumbing of the world chamoth also shares his thoughts on the connection between Bitcoin and rumors about FTX getting SEC approval before going out of business he believes that this connection distracts us from more important topics such as the fragility of the financial system and the development of systemic shocks that's the latter I mean I think that there was a rumor going around I don't know how true it is that FTX was days away from getting a critical approval by the SEC to actually even further legitimize their U.S exchange before they went out of business so I think Gensler had to Pivot very hard from at a minimum being very Pro FTX and there's all kinds of stories about his interrelatedness with Sam and his family to very anti-bit or anti-crypto in general that's clearly happened but look I think that this is like a lot of tin hatting which I don't think is very productive if you look at the total number of non-zero Bitcoin wallet addresses in the world and let's be extremely generous and say it's a hundred million there's still seven billion people in the world and so I just think everybody that tries to speak about the fragility of the U.S and worldwide banking system is right but and that part I think is quite lucid and unemotional but every time they try to connect it to bitcoin they sound like a crazy person because they're just talking their book and that is exactly the case by the way with this kid Nick Carter yeah and the best example to demonstrate this is in all of this chaos if Bitcoin or crypto Assets in general were truly a legitimate off-ramp and salvation from US dollar hegemony and all of this stuff why isn't Bitcoin at least at 35 000 a coin right now it's barely above 28 000 it really hasn't moved that much and I think the real answer is that most people in Bitcoin are not trying to hedge their existing fiat currency exposure they're just picking off people in retail and they're just day trading this thing I mean I think that explains how else do you explain an asset that is not absolutely ripped in the face of all of this terrible news about the financial system and I think the answer is because it's still a cul-de-sac of users it's not broadly available not broadly adoptable not broadly used I I still believe that it's valuable I was the earliest proponent of Bitcoin 2011.
yeah 2012. so I believe that there's a place for it in one's portfolio but I just think connecting these dots misses the point and I think the point is much much bigger than a crypto off-ramp the point is that we have a lot of systemic shocks that are building up in the system we have broken a ton of the systems that caused the financial infrastructure and the world to work properly and we are just starting to uncover how they're broken so I think we need to focus our energy on that and dial down a little bit of the Bitcoin Maxi stuff because it distracts from a really important set of topics that are more inclusive and actually touch seven billion people my point is put this in the who cares bucket and get back to the facts Friedberg mentioned it we have a debt ceiling problem that's in the offing sax mentioned it we have a commercial real estate crisis we just talked about the fact that he didn't raise rates enough nor did he cut enough so we're in this weird middle path that Jay Powell we're talking about so those are the facts on the ground that I think we should focus on because those will have implications to how people can borrow start businesses capitalize risk assets that's a big problem shamath questions why Bitcoin is not valued higher than its current price if it's supposed to be a legitimate off-ramp from the US dollar hegemony He suggests that most people in Bitcoin are not hedging their fiat currency exposure but instead day trading and picking off people in retail chamoth believes Bitcoin and crypto assets have a place in one's portfolio in general but people should not over emphasize it instead He suggests we should focus on more inclusive topics such as the debt ceiling problem the commercial real estate crisis and the middle path taken by Jay Powell he says these topics have significant implications for borrowing starting businesses and capitalizing risk assets in the market what do you think about shamat's Market prediction for 2023 as well as his perspective on Bitcoin in the current economic landscape foreign
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