저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 금리는 예상보다 높고 오래 유지될 것이며, 시장 컨센서스에 반대로 베팅하는 것이 수익적일 수 있다는 주장. 금리 전망: 연방기금금리 5.5% 수준이 유지될 가능성을 제시. 2년물 금리가 한 달 사이 4.1%에서 4.9%로 급등해 시장이 금리 인상 지속을 반영하고 있다고 설명. 10년물은 약 3.2%에서 4% 근처로 상승. 기업 실적 분석: S&P500 기업의 순이익(장부상)과 영업현금흐름 간 격차가 1990년 이후 30년 중 가장 크다고 제시. 회계 기법(발생주의, 재고 등)으로 실적이 실제보다 건전해 보일 수 있다고 주장. 이에 따라 실적 침체(earnings recession)가 이미 시작됐을 수 있으며, 이 경우 S&P500이 15% 조정되어 3000 중반까지 내려갈 수 있다는 비관론을 소개. 반대 시각: 일시적 조정일 뿐이며 시장이 안정화되고 있다는 시각도 언급. 다만 본인은 결론을 명확히 하지 않음. 경기·재정 관련: 사회보장 생활비 조정(COLA) 등 숨은 경로로 재정 지출이 계속 경제에 유입되고 있으며, 납세자가 이를 부담하고 있다고 지적. 단일 지표로 소비자 상황을 판단하는 것은 위험하다고 봄. 시장 전반: 연초 컨센서스는 S&P500 3200 재테스트와 실적 침체였으나, 주식시장이 금리 급등에도 버틴 점이 가장 큰 놀라움이라고 평가. 종목별 언급: 개별 종목 가격 예측은 없음. 지수 및 금리 방향에 대한 발언 위주.
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the white line is what you tell Wall Street in terms of what you make on paper the blue line is what actually appears in the bank account so why could there be a gap between what you tell somebody you made I made a dollar versus what's in the bank 50 cents well the reason is that there's all kinds of accounting tricks that you can use accruals inventories and all of these things allow you to present a healthier earnings report than is actually true foreign on the all in podcast discussing the current state of the market and the ever-growing concern over the inflation that's coming in 2023 while the market braces itself the consensus view is that inflation will continue to run hotter and the upcoming Prince over the next eight weeks will be crucial chamoth emphasizes that if allocators of capital are unsure about the direction of rates and inflation everything can shut down which is detrimental for the economy he suggested it may be profitable to go against the consensus View and predicts of the Fed fund's rate increase could be a sign that the market is overvalued let's check out the latest interview with chamoth as he gives us his Market Outlook and what we can expect from the FED heading into the first half of the year don't forget to like And subscribe if you enjoy the content we do here on this channel let's get right into the video my governing principle I think I probably said it too many times but I'll say it again rates are going to be higher than we like and they'll stay here longer than we want so if you use that as a principal whenever the consensus thinks we're done it's been pretty profitable able to be on the other side of consensus and so I still kind of maintain that we're probably going to have a five and a half percent fed funds rate which means that I don't know maybe Credit Suisse will offer me seven and a half percent soon on three month T bills but we're going to have higher rates and I do think Brad's right though in the sense that as long as we know that then that's it and we can forecast it into the future without it changing too much it'll be okay but right now what you're seeing is a lot of Make-Believe going on in the stock market so Nick if you want to just throw up that image so this is a really this is the chart of uh Cash Flow versus earnings yeah so this is something that I saw in Bloomberg which I thought was really interesting and if you focus on the period of 2020 to 2024 what you see is the white line which is net income adjusted for depreciation and amortization and the blue line is cash flows from operation so what does that mean and this is for uh S P 500 firms this is the best 500 companies in the world yeah and the white line is what you tell Wall Street in terms of what you make on paper the blue line is what actually appears in the bank account so why could there be a gap between what you tell somebody you made I made a dollar versus what's in the bank 50 cents well the reason is that there's all kinds of accounting tricks that you can use accruals inventories and all of these things allow you to present a healthier earnings report than is actually true and so right now we have the worst earning situation so the worst gap between what we are telling people versus what is actually in the bank account that we've had for 30 years since 1990.
and so it just brings into Focus the fact that we may be in the last few innings of trying to make sure this all looks okay in which case one faction of the investing world who thinks that this earnings recession is actually at hand would be kind of right and then what they would say is that once we all realize that these earnings are fake and you reset down 15 that's where you get to the mid 3000 in in the S P 500 right now it's around four thousand I don't know if that's true or not but there's more and more evidence that would support that the way that they see the world could be credible the other side says Hey listen this is a bump in the road we're getting a handle on things and it's stabilizing so even though it's higher than we'd like it's not going to change that much so now just think about 10 and 15 years from now and let's go you have to understand stimulus is still entering the economy it's just harder to measure so for example take Social Security you have cost of living adjustments in Social Security that's lifting payments by 10 and 15 because it's backdated for what was going on last year and remember last year we had two three four five percent inflation rates so there is more and more money coming into people's pockets that we don't realize and we're all on the hook for that as U.S taxpayers so I think it's very dangerous to kind of look at one data point and try to pick off what's happening in consumer land because there's all kinds of hidden ways in which money gets back to people German notes that stimulus is still entering the economy and is harder to measure he cites the cost of living adjustments which are lifting payments by 10 to 15 percent due to inflation rates he warns against looking at only one data point to understand what is happening with consumers and points to the hidden ways in which money gets back to people I think this is a good time to maybe talk about the public markets and inflation and what we're seeing in macro so can I set up a question for Brad actually sure go ahead yes yes so so on a previous podcast I laid out my theory of how you could just use the two-year bond rate relative to the FED funds rate to understand where the bond markets sort of prediction Market about inflation is going and a month ago the two-year bond rate was at 4.1 percent relative to 4.5 percent fed funds rates in other words the bond market was betting that interest rates would go down between now and two years from now relative to where the FED had it so therefore it believed that inflation had been conquered now fast forward just one month later and the two-year bond rate said about 4.9 percent you know the FED funds rates about four and a half percent that is a massive swing basically 80 basis points swing in the I guess the tier bond rate and so the market seemed to be saying all of a sudden not just that they expect rates to be higher longer but also that the FED needs to keep raising and that is a big change so Brad what is the basis for that and what do we now believe about inflation I think just a few weeks ago we were thinking that this problem was effect and the market took off like a rocket it ripped now all of a sudden it seems like investors are really worried that inflation is not over so where does this stand right now well I think when we started the year you know the the tenure was close to 3-2 we're now we're closer to four percent the ten minus two is is negative as it's been in the last uh probably 10 years so the market is clearly saying you know we saw some inflation prints that came in hotter I think it's now consensus which you guys have been saying on the Pod that you know although the second derivative is slowing that we're it's sticky right we're going to get stock at this four or four and a half three and a half and it's the slope of the curve down where it is going to be slower um we've gone from thinking we're going to have 225s to now thinking we'll have three or four and so I think everybody is now bracing for more inflation but remember when we started here on January 1st the consensus wisdom was we were going to retest the s p at 3200 we're going to have an earnings recession and that inflation was going to continue to run hotter the only surprise in my mind so far this year is how well the equity markets have held up in the face of a tenure that's gone parabolic charmath highlights the taxpayers are ultimately responsible for this increased spending he believes that the interest rates will definitely be higher and will persist for a longer period Jamal says that going against the consensus view could be profitable as the mar Market is still uncertain about whether this is just a temporary bump in the road or the beginning of an earnings recession he also points out the cash flow versus earnings for companies indicating that there is currently a significant gap between what companies are reporting as earnings and what's actually in their bank accounts this suggests that in the broader economic landscape things may not be what they seem what do you think about jamas economic outlook for this year and how the fed's rise in interest rates will affect the stock crypto and housing markets in thank you
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