저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 2023년 금리 인상 사이클이 거의 끝나 주식시장이 바닥을 지나고 있으며, 블록체인·AI·로보택시 등 혁신 기술이 기존 질서를 대체해 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. - 비트코인·이더리움: FTX·셀시어스·쓰리애로즈(3AC) 등 불투명·중앙화 기업은 무너졌지만 탈중앙 블록체인은 거래가 멈추지 않아 신뢰가 높아졌다고 평가. 화폐·금융서비스·디지털 재산권 3대 혁신 중 머니 혁명은 주로 비트코인, 금융서비스 혁명은 이더리움이 담당한다고 봄. - 비트코인 역할: 공급이 제한된 규칙 기반 디지털 통화로, 초인플레이션과 재정위기 시 부의 몰수에 대비하는 보험 역할을 한다고 설명. - 금리·연준: 연준이 금리를 25~50bp 더 올릴 수 있으나 이미 거의 도달했다고 봄. 시장은 미래를 선반영하므로 시장 바닥 통과가 임박했다는 인식. 2022년 장기 듀레이션 자산 타격은 인플레·금리 충격 때문이었다고 설명. - 혁신 기술 투자: 2000년대 초 닷컴 버블 당시 씨앗이 뿌려진 AI·딥러닝(2012)·트랜스포머(2017)·챗GPT로 이어지는 혁신이 지금 진행 중. 투자자들은 벤치마크(전통 질서)로 도피하지만, 전통 질서는 역사상 가장 큰 혁신기에 와해될 것이라고 주장. - 테슬라: 가장 큰 포지션으로 보유해 왔으며 확신이 높다. 10% 이상이면 일부 매도해 차익 실현 후, 하락 시 재매수하는 전략을 씀. 로보택시가 핵심이며, 2만5천달러 수준 가격 가능성과 배터리 기술 우위(경쟁사 대비 3~4년 앞섬)를 근거로 경쟁사가 따라오기 어렵다고 봄. 자율주행 모빌리티로 마진이 폭발적으로 증가할 것이라 전망. - 인플레이션·디플레: 인플레이션은 결국 연준 목표 2%로 내려오고, 통화량 수축과 암호화폐·블록체인에 의한 디플레 효과로 -(마이너스) 영역까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 이로 인해 제품·서비스 붐과 시장 충격이 올 수 있다고 주장. - 나스닥: 1월 나스닥이 2001년 이후 최고 성과를 기록, 기술·혁신 강세의 신호로 해석하며 올해 큰 급등 가능성 언급. - 리스크: 유동성 축소와 금리 변수 언급, 고위험 혁신주 과열 경계 필요성은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
uh sambachman free didn't like Bitcoin why didn't he like it completely decentralized transparent he couldn't control it FTX and Celsius and 3ac completely opaque and centralized those were the companies that went under the blockchains whether you're talking about Bitcoin or ethereum and many others they didn't skip a beat transactions did not stop and I think that has given us a lot of confidence that actually they're on the right track we think there are three revolutions taking place simultaneously there's the money Revolution which is mostly Bitcoin a bit ether there is the financial services Revolution which is ethereum as is this notion of digital property rights first time that's web 3 digital property rights with an economics background I know that the best way to lift people in countries out of poverty is to give them immutable property rights hey guys welcome back to Library of wealth today we have the CEO of Arc invest Kathy Wood sharing her insights on the recent marketing conditions and how Bitcoin will play a major role in the coming months the world of crypto has seen its fair share of ups and downs over the years and in a recent interview with CNBC Kathy Wood shares her thoughts on the current state of the stock and crypto market and highlights the resilience demonstrated by decentralized and transparent systems like Bitcoin she views Bitcoin as a rules-based digital monetary system with a cap Supply and believes it to be an insurance policy against the confiscation of wealth in scenarios of hyperinflation and fiscal crises brought on by recent Global events in the larger economic backdrop she discusses the impact of the federal reserve's monetary policy on the market and reflects on the recent inflation and interest rate scare that hit long duration assets hard in 2022 let's get right into the latest interview with Kathy Wood as she gives her prediction for crypto the fed's impact on the stock market and what we can expect in 2023 don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe to the channel if you enjoy the content we do here let's let's get right into the video the FED really wants to make sure that it has done its job and job owning is part of it but I do believe the equity Market certainly the way we've started the year are beginning to see to the other side and sure maybe they go up another 25 basis points maybe 50 I don't know but I think we're we're just about there and the market is a discounting mechanism after all so if you can see to the other side uh then we should be okay early in my career in the early 80s it was the same thing but those who bet on Lower inflation and interest rates long term were the winners and it's always the the data the data are very volatile especially when you have the warmest winter on history in history here in the Northeast so I think that's distorted the numbers quite significantly and the interesting thing about seasonal factors if that is the Distortion they all have to work out to one over the full year so if they bumped the numbers disproportionately in January it'll come out of others I don't know February is a little warm too some people look at your Arc Innovation fund Kathy as a as a barometer for what the FED is doing right and and they say it's back on the rise speculative bat behavior is back unprofitable tech companies are getting bit again the FED has more work to do you know it's very interesting that the people do link the two together I think that the muscle memory has more to do with the tech and Telecom bubble and bust and people fearing that we may be in the same situation we are not in fact the seeds for everything that's happening today all of the Innovation that's happening today they were planted in the 20 years that ended in the tech and Telecom bubble but the Technologies back then were not ready the costs were way too high we didn't get the big breakthroughs in artificial intelligence until deep learning 2012 uh Transformer technology 2017 and now finally we have a chat GPT people are beginning to understand that the ground is Shifting underneath us when it comes to Innovation unlike in the late 90s investors rushed into the late 90s weren't ready for them now they're running away they really are running for the hills and what are the hills they're benchmarks that's where they think safety is but if we we're right the benchmarks which represent the traditional World Order are going to be disintermediated disrupted by the most massive Innovation period in in history we've been criticized for owning too much actually and it has been our largest position for the most part for years so our conviction remains very high one of the reasons we do sell as it moves above 10 percent in in the various strategies is that gives us the psychological wherewithal after we've taken profits to buy when it is falling to a hundred which it did not too long ago so that's part of our trading around our opportunities that volatility gives us how are you thinking about competition that's come online in the last 12 months yeah we're very interested in the news coming out of this uh March 1st day and we think it will be about Robo taxis effectively uh Elon has said that uh he believes that he'll be able to cut the price of a car in half we think that a robo taxi could start at 25 000 and you know if you've got tax credits that to take you into the High Teens it's going to be very difficult for the competition to beat that in fact they won't be able to come anywhere near it given their current battery technology and uh so not just the dealer network not just their marketing costs no just the battery the the battery is critical and elon's writing down the Consumer Electronics battery curve other automakers chose a different curve that was higher cost to begin with so they're writing down a curve but Elon because he's innovating in Battery Technology and we'll hear more about that as well is We Believe three to four years ahead of the competition which means for the same power and range another company if they wanted to price at the same level as Tesla will have to lose money especially if he cuts prices in half if they're so ahead of competition why does he have to cut prices this is the beauty of innovation he's following a learning curve there's the drive train is following a learning curve and for every cumulative doubling in the number of vehicles produced globally cost declined 28 so he's passing them along as you'll notice as prices have come down his margins have gone up he's enjoying economies of scale and we do believe that margins for Tesla are going to become explosive with autonomous Mobility most of our companies are going to be sleepers because of that proprietary data chat GPT if if you've been reading about it is really scraping the internet from all its history for information so far this year year Kathy believes that inflation will eventually come down to the two percent Target level set by the Federal Reserve and predicts that inflation could fall below and even enter into negative territory due to the ongoing contraction in the money supply with technological innovation such as cryptocurrency and blockchain Technologies being deflationary she believes this will in turn cause a boom in the products and services and a shock to the market after getting battered by 2022's bear Market the tech heavy NASDAQ in particular had its best showing in January since 2001.
this is an indicator that technology and Innovation is on the rise and we could see a massive surge this year what do you think about Kathy Woods prediction for crypto the stock market and what's to come in 2023 comment down below thanks so much for watching don't forget to like And subscribe this is library of wealth we'll see you in the next video
Comments 0