저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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FOMC가 금리를 동결하고 연내 인하를 1회로 낮췄지만, 6월 CPI 양호로 인하 기대가 커졌다고 봄. 에너지 가격 하락이 물가를 낮췄고 6월 휘발유도 하락 추세. 9월 인하가 가장 이른 시나리오. 기술·AI 모멘텀 랠리가 당분간 지속될 것이라 주장. 단 경기 둔화 시 변수 존재.
다듬은 글
the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closing at record highs after the FED left interest rates unchanged but the Central Bank dialed back its forecast to Just One Rate cut this year let's bring in Jeremy seagull he is Professor ameritus of Finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business and the chief Economist at Wisdom Tree um Jeremy help us read the smoke signals here we got a better than anticipated CPI number showing that inflation was not quite as hot and yet the FED sounded more poish was that dialed in before we got the CPI number or how how should we be looking at the totality of information we learned yesterday yeah Becky I think you got it right um they were given the opportunity to change as chairman pow said you know most of them didn't change their prediction uh my feeling is we get if we get one more the next CPI as a good one you're going to have almost everyone in the two cut Camp uh uh and by the way I think the prospects are looking good for uh the uh the June CPI I mean gasoline for instance was down from April to May 2% uh energy was a big reason why we had a low number uh from uh May to June gasoline is down 4% twice that amount now there's other factors of course but uh one has to realize they really don't know what the future is if you take a you know historical look at at how good they've been at predicting what uh the rat's going to be it is it is not good they are a 100% data dependent it just depends on how that inflation data and the real economic data uh comes in even if we get one more month of good numbers it's probably going to be September before you see a rate cut because the July the June numbers wouldn't come in in time before the July meeting you've got August off that's going to be when we could po hear from pal um at Jackson Hall maybe setting things up so I think probably the earliest case scenario would be September you agree I I I agree I think he'll Tee It Up another good uh report he'll te it up at uh the July 31st meeting um reinforce that at Jackson Hall uh and then go for it at the September meeting and and then depending on if the data keeps on going good we you know we we might have it again uh in the next meeting and the December meeting I'm not saying even three is very possible um you my reading is that CPI is going to come in well in fact he hinted on that you know the rental rates are still high you know plus.
4% even though as PA said the real data is still coming in much better than that comes in second half of the year you're going to have good data there what what could get in the way what could change the Outlook I I mean Energy prices have cooperated you've got oil below $80 if if that were to change would that take all bets off the table uh All That Could I mean kamod is going back up now it looks like a lot of those kamis copper tin oil have peaked gone down but you know there's a lot of a lot of volatility up out there and if they start going up uh and we don't see any softening whatsoever in the labor market then they they would remain firm I don't think that's my median case but certainly uh it's it's in the range of possibilities but I actually think that uh uh uh if you would take a vote even right now as I said most of them didn't change their vote because they had put their vote in I think you'd get more people on two changes than one change and all we need is you know one more good report and uh I think uh I think we'll have it I think the danger is if the real economy slips now I know we got good payroll household wasn't as good unemployment up to 4% is pal ready to go fast enough or is he going to go you know 20 te it up 25 basis point 25 basic Point don't forget I mean we know we did inflation going up on 75 uh you know he has to be reactive he can't be setting up things all the time sometimes you might have to surprise the market if things do soften I mean we've seen the NASDAQ hitting a new high every day the S&P hitting a new high every day and I was I was going to say this is really a goldilock scenario the econom is not collapsing and you've got the FED where it looks like there's a situation where they could cut rates so the market gets everything it wants unless the point you just brought up something happens with the economy what do you what do you do with the markets right now where do you think they're headed oh I think that momentum trade on on the tech and the AI related is still there uh um uh you know that that has been so powerful it takes a lot uh of bad news to break a momentum trade and we just haven't gotten it I mean let's face it those those stocks have delivered the bacon as they say and uh as long as they do uh you know those momentum Traders are going to crowd into those stocks so I don't see that ending anytime soon um of course often times it gets overdone at the end but uh the end is often further into the future than many people believe Professor seagull thank you um you've been talking about this for a long time and I have the feeling we will have you back as the situation adjusts thank you I hope so thank you Becky it is just
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