저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 S&P 랠리가 성숙 단계이나 마진 부채·현금 등 고점 신호는 아직 없다고 봄. 상반기 중 조정 가능성은 인정하되 단기 탑은 아니며, 현금 보유자는 분할매수와 인내를 권유. 금리 인하는 올해 가능하다고 보며 경기는 안정화 국면이라 평가. 비트코인은 ETF 수요와 반감기 효과로 올해 최대 15만 달러까지 가능하다고 주장하고, 블록체인 보안성과 가치 저장 수단으로서의 유용성을 강조. 랜섬웨어 등 불법 사용 논란에도 투자 자산으로서의 가치를 옹호.
다듬은 글
our next guest who is Tom Lee says he expects stocks to draw down at some point in the first half but hasn't seen the signs of a near term top term top let's bring in Tom Lee managing partner head of research at funstra Global advisors as well as a CNBC contributor I referenced our conversation we weren't in makeup per se sometimes we talk of makeup this just happened to be outside of the makeup througho yes but we're still talking um I like it better when we're actually sitting down and sort of you know I I feel like that stimulates me when when we're you said immediately uh there's some dry powder left it's not it's not over yet although there are some signs of fatigue yes I mean we've rallied 16 weeks up 23% the last two sort of long rallies were 16 to 19 weeks and 21 to 22% so it's mature but we don't see the signs of the top normally like margin debt is only 700 billion it was 900 billion in October 21 and there's still 6 trillion of cash on the sidelines and even this week into Nvidia earnings I kind of see the stock kind of weak into the report which makes me think the stock could surprise to the upside and I think that would sort of help us get some more juice on the upside from here that's interesting the the one of your calls which uh and I remember at the time we just stopped doing that uh it was like a weekly call for for the S&P based on an inflation number on on a friendly inflation number last week uh we did not get uh friendly inflation numbers but do you think that the trend is intact yes I think there are some difficult seasonals uh because you know companies raised prices in January that made January look like a hot CPI number and I think February CPI which comes out next month it's going to reverse some of that and it's going to put investors on the bond market thinking inflation is again oh my God that'd be a great time for another one of your calls if you hadn't sworn off making a call on where the S&P will be in a week that would be a good time to do it but don't yes I i' I've promised myself not to do that okay um can I just ask one question given this sort of um shortterm bearish is what you call it short-term bearish well I think we're there's going to be a moment where investors have to get cautious but I yeah I mean it's a maturing rally so I don't think you know this is so I guess the question is for those folks who are sitting around with cash right now everyone's always trying to figure out I have a little cash if they have cash what am I supposed to do are they supposed to wait for this some kind of grand moment to put it in the market and of course timing is always sort of a challenging thing to do are they supposed to put it in Bitcoin and it will probably get there in about a second what would you what would you be doing with your money if you if you knew that if you knew things were about to get worse and not better well uh we know markets have a pretty good 12mon Runway from here and I don't think investors should be 100% cash I I think if they Happ been sitting on cash and missed a lot of this 20 yeah 4% move I think they need to dollar cost average you know put a little bit in on weakness and this has been a kind of a a weak week um and then just be patient I think patient money is really the money that's been working the last few years but you don't think that uh that the FED needs to stay uh tighter longer because inflation is still a major problem you think that we will get some rate Cuts this year yes and you know I think again I know the statistics don't show up but I think the job market has weakened a lot um you know one of the big drivers of inflation for the past eight months has been auto insurance you know up 23% I'm not sure monetary policy really gets auto insurance rates down it just has to play out and you know housing is stting starting to really come out the other side so we can get lower inflation a soft Landing or is it getting harder uh I think the econom is actually stabilizing and then if we get lower interest rates it actually really stabilizes Theon we we I teased Bitcoin because I I have no idea I don't know what it's trading on I don't know what you think it's trading on now the ETFs obviously that that was something usually it likes the FED to e so you just said some positive things about about that maybe for more for more printing for but I said and I was just throwing out a number we at 50 I said you said it might be U strong for the remainder of the year I said 75 what did you say to me I I think it's you know could be as high as 150,000 this year so double what I thought was 150,000 so we're tripling at this point yeah because you've got demand improving with the ETF and you have the supply shrinking with the happing and if monetary policy eases which we expect you know that's supportive of risk assets and bitcoin's holding up I me that's another reason why I don't think a draw Down's going to start that soon I mean bitcoin's been rallying last couple weeks wow so think that's in the bank those are big numbers um I don't know any and are you in all the LI go back are you in the camp of this is like a $500,000 valued over yeah over five years are you yeah it is sound money um and I think it's proving to be useful and proving to be useful how well very useful if you're an investor right now yes it's been a great store value uh it's been a good risk asset it's also incredibly secure you know there hasn't been a single fraudulent entry on the blockchain since Inception I don't think any bank can say that's true of their p&l and accounting you know 6% of banking transactions are suspicious 0% on the big what did gzo say the other day that he trust the Oracle database more than the the blockchain the thing distributed Lea does that that was bizarre wasn't it well I mean the blockchain is just one big piece of software but you know I would trust uh the proof of work concept that you now instead of having five people manage an Oracle database you have a consensus mechanism and that's here's the the flip side of that and you you've heard from the Jamie diamonds of the world maybe even Elizabeth Warren and others who say despite what you what you said about sort of how how good the blockchain is to be able to find where things are it is the medium of choice for ransomware I mean just you go through the list of sort of terrible terrible illegal Behavior people in that world seem to love Bitcoin what does that say about this well Pirates were the first people that like gold so we we knew gold was a good store value um but I think equally important you know the dollar is used in more illicit activities9 we talked about obviously 99 Joe made that point before but you don't so you you ascribe nothing to the idea that Bitcoin is a beloved uh currency for those who are trying to do nefarious things well here's a way to think of it criminals don't trust anybody but they trust Bitcoin and so if you want to say what is a trusted asset it's really what would be the least this is like saying you follow the technology that starts with PN right no I I because because that's I think it's like remember like videotapes and it's like blaming the object for itself for for the nefarious behavior when it's the humans that are that are using the I mean would can you imagine the World of Pain Management without without strong pain medicine look what happens when you abuse the pain med but can you imagine with with and I've even you take a a car or a truck no of course but some more utility no but but this is the this is the difference and I will I will take Gary gendler's side on this particular description of the situation yeah a car has immense value to society economic value to societ there's a utility why does it resonate with you arue that a strong Tylenol actually has a history of the world in the history of the world right if 99% of the nefarious activities were were using dollars why don't you have the same negative Viewpoint towards a dollar has a great utility in the same way the car has a great utility well you don't know you don't because you don't appreciate the utility of Bitcoin doesn't mean that other people don't appreciate it the only people right now that appreciate the the no that's not true that's not true I don't appreciate it because I'm using it for ransomware I appreciate it value value or value would stay one price no no like gold was $300 not too long ago it's now $2,000 it doesn't stay at the same price it goes up as you print more money more of a speculative no I don't think that's I don't think that's why it turned out to be a great investment for those who are investing in it I'm not saying it's a bad investment I'm just saying long term we're all sitting on this table explain how it's sound money it's sound money I don't not that I don't understand conceptually what's what's going on why do you say that it has no use then other than the feris uses no no I think the use case is as a speculative tool as a way potentially even to hedge against other things if you think that it's correlated or non correlated to other things that is the use case that's the utility as an investment that is
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