저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
CPI 실망은 주거·보험 등 끈질긴 항목 탓이며 근원 인플레는 정상화 중. PCE가 더 우호적일 것. 금리 인하 시점은 7~9월 이후로 밀렸지만 증시 우상향 여지는 있음. S&P500 연말 5600~5700 예상(5200은 천장 아님), 밸류에이션 확장 가능. 소형주는 이익성장·저PER로 50% 반등 가능성 유지. 대형 AI주는 여전히 강세로 보며 산업재와 소형주도 선호.
다듬은 글
all right we are back with the S&P sliding again today the S&P now on track for its worst weekly loss since October but fun strats Tom Lee says it's temporary a temporary moment of pain and a buy the dip opportunity he joins me now Post 9 to make that case good to see you again I'm glad you're here in person too so so you don't think that much change this week uh I mean I think the narrative got muddled because that CPI report was a disappointment but it was driven by what what we call stubborn components shelter auto insurance you know the med core CPI component now has only 1.7% year-over-year inflation I mean inflation is normalizing it's just not evident in the total picture so the pce in a couple of weeks is going to be more favorable we think than these latest inflation reads and I know what everybody says about it's you know it being the fed's favored measure on on where inflation is but are you entertaining the idea that this is not going to be as easy as you once thought it was going to be for this Last Mile and therefore the market can't do what you once thought it could uh I mean I'd say that that's really the narrative disruption this week you know because now the FED has three inflation reports that it can't argue against that are a little hotter than expected and the Bulls can't really explain them away either can they that's right so what we would need to see is April and May CPI improvements which is in the future um and then keeps the fed from standing in the way of the economy what we don't want is a Fed that wants to further slow the economy which is rate hikes and I think if they just do even one hike this year it's still actually a good environment for stocks one one cut you mean sorry one cut yeah let's be clear see it's a Freudian slip I mean because the you know the the greatest fear of all is that they're going to have to hike again however remote that possibility seems today and even if you put into the the the soup all the FED commentary that we've gotten of late just seems to be push off rather than push up that's right and I think it's you at the end of the day it's even if CPI does look like it's somewhat sticky PC as you pointed out is more cooperative and ppi is and measures like true infation show inflation much softer you miss inflation expectations much lower so I think at some point we could also just ask is is CPI a bit aent what about the valuations of the market how do you counter the argument that they're just way too stretched multiples are just way too rich given what now is likely to be the case of cuts later on uh I mean I think when someone looks at 20 years of History that's the argument they'll make if they look at 90 years of PE multiples versus interest rates when the tenure is between 4 and 5% which is a pretty big range the median PE is 20 times so we're we're not even at a median PE multiple of what's existed whenever the 10 years's been in this range so and then if you look at a median stock it's actually at 16 times i' say that there's upside to earnings I think multiples can expand I don't think 5200 is the ceiling for stocks this year what what feels like the right the right ceiling now uh I I know this is uh going to be tough for investors to to embrace it but I think something like 56 5700 is probably where the S&P exits the year maybe even high much more backloaded into that than you once thought uh I think it's still back loaded because we'll have the cuts behind us and we'll have visibility into 20 25 earnings which probably could be 270 maybe 280 next year Well when you say we'll have the cuts behind us are you so sure right so let's just take June off the table for argument sake no June yeah you think the first one's in July or it could be September but it but that's why I asked you if the if the the move in the market that you just suggested it's backloaded because you're not going to get a big move until you see the first cut at this point now there's a lot of disbelief in the market that's right and Scott one thing to keep in mind is the probability of a June cut has been reduced but it it can come back if we have a good April and May CPI because then it's going to put back into Focus what is the trend in CPI it does feel stubborn when you look at January February March now the flip side of the argument that the Bulls would suggest is all of this is noise keep your eye on the ball the fed's going to cut they may wait they may not do as many as we thought but the regime has changed and the economy is going to remain good and earning to going to be strong enough and they're still going to cut because they're going to be able to and they'll point to the pce and say just don't be blindsided by the other noise that's the story that matters most I mean i' say that that's a story that's going as as the dust settles from this week that's what's going to sort of push back into the front lines of people's minds because it's totally different than 2022 and 2023 and we're in the middle of earning season then think deliver ears will be good and interest rates uh look it's not comfortable here 4% the economy is handling it and there for now for now yes so you made a call I think first on this program that small caps were going to Rally 50% was several months ago I can't imagine that you still believe that's going to happen now that rate Cuts have been pushed out seemingly until the fall um well I think one in the viewers need to keep in mind that small caps almost R 20% in a month last year so for them to Rally 50% over the next eight months I think it's still very plausible given that median earnings growth for a small cap in the r 2000s 19% versus 11% for the S&P and the median PE is 10 times versus 16 times in the S&P oh I know why they're cheap but they're cheap for a reason some would say sure but then if if we have corporate CEO confidence go up and so mergers start to happen I think you're going to have a very very quick adjustment and in the price of small cap stocks again okay I'm sorry finish your thought oh and you know there's Six Trillion Sidelines as well okay lastly and and and briefly Mega caps are you still as bullish as you have been yes yeah because uh you know I still think it makes sense to own what's working and that's AI related and the OIC related names but you know now on the margin the ism's turning up so you want to own some Industrials and because of f Cuts I like small caps all righty we'll see Tom Le thank you yeah Tom Ley you're at post n up next
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