저자: TomLee · 외국인
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S&P500 사상 최고 부근에서 상승장 여력이 남았다고 주장. 증거금 잔고가 2021년 대비 낮고 센티먼트가 여전히 부정적이며 사람들이 '의심'하는 동안은 버블이 아니라고 봄. 엔비디아 FCF수익률 3%로 비싸지 않다고 판단. 연준은 2024년 내 금리인하가 필요하며 3월 인하 확률이 시장 반영보다 높다고 봄, 1월 CPI는 자동차보험 등 이상치 영향. 시장 전략으로 산업재·소형주 선호, 소형주 상대수익 +50% 전망(P/B 1999년 수준).
다듬은 글
all right we're back the S&P 500 stabilizing a bit after hitting another record high breaking up of 5100 for the first time and my next guest says there is still quote a lot of gas in the tank for this Market rally let's bring him in fun strats Tom Lee back with us it's good to see you again welcome back great to see you Scott well you've been right on the money so tell me why there's more gaps in the tank for this incredible run well uh I think foremost there's a lot of evidence of dry powder on the sidelines meaning there's still a lot of potential buying margin debt for instance is only at 700 billion it was 710 billion in October just a few months ago and 900 almost 950 billion in October 2021 so investors aren't that fully invested sentiment also still pretty negative based on all the conversations uh we do with our clients and the best evidence is that stocks are going up on good news that means the good news isn't priced in and then as Mark Newton our head of technical strategy says there's no technical breakdown so I I don't think there's any signs of a top near term but those are the things we'd be looking for for when maybe this current rally could run out of gasoline it's F I mean you you really think that sentiment is is still negative I I read a few moments ago you know from Tony pascarell at at Goldman Sachs how you know sentiment is is pretty stretched you know everybody's long you really think there are that many people who are still non-believers in this now I know there are some out there cuz I hear from them but you really think there are that many uh yes I mean I think there's a couple of reasons one is many people uh think the stock market's very concentrated and the the fangs or the MA 7 are expensive but you know nvidia's free cash flow yield is 3% it's it's the same as the S&P it's actually not expensive and I think there's still this inflation mindset that inflation is stalling or could come back and so investors are kind of inclined to short the market and I think the best evidence that sentiment still pretty negative is I hear people talk about the market being expensive but outside of the fangs it's trading at 15 times forward I mean that's never been an expensive multiple it's just people look at the price appreciation of the market and and and because they may not have participation think it's a bubble you don't have any concerns at all that it might be especially you know stocks like Nvidia which as we say seemingly you know went from 1 trillion to 2 trillion in market cap quote unquote overnight uh I mean in some ways I think um you know stocks rise rapidly when either estimates change or they they want to repic the Future growth what's interesting is nvidia's free cash flow was 7 billion a year ago it's now close to a 50 billion run rate so it's it's gone up by you know seven times and the stock price hasn't risen by that much um I don't think we will have a bubble until the consensus declares there's no bubble and there's no risk and then that's when we're likely to bubble but I I think a lot of folks raising the the prospects that this is a bubble means it's it's still early the market seems to be giving the fed the benefit of the doubt that though it might not cut as early as it once thought it's going to cut at some point this year there has to be the expectation in in this bull run that cuts are coming sometime this year I I would imagine what happens if they don't um I mean if the FED doesn't cut I I think it would pose quite a lot of risk for the stock market um I don't think the fed's going to hesitate just because the stock market's risen or the isms have turned up you know the fed's policy rate of close to 5 half% is the highest policy rate in the world for any developed country look at the US tenure it's at almost 4 and half% Germany's 10e yield is 2.6% I I think that the bond market itself is telling us that uh the FED is overly restriced right now you think they should cut in March I think that probability of cutting in March is higher than what's being priced in and and a lot of it will depend on what February CPI looks like which comes out March 12th but you know we think there are some anomalies in the January CPI including poor seasonal adjustment and the fact that auto insurance is actually accounting for almost more than half of the rise in the super court services number and if those start to show improvements I think whatever sort of hot CPI we saw in January and the repricing reverses to a large extent what happens if it's not March and what happens if it's not May um you know it it it it if it's not March and May and it's not even looking like 2024 I do think it puts pressure on stocks but if it's a Fed that does isn't satisfied with six out of seven good inflation reports and they suddenly move this B you know the guide post to has to be n out of 10 I think the the stock market gets impatient and just rallies anyways but it it just really depends on the path of inflation the other you know issue I suppose as some are talking about is this whole loosening of financial conditions because of this AI boom in the stock market do you think that's an influencer on the fed and on one hand we're we're all revved up as Bulls because we look at Nvidia going up every day and we're like wow this is incredible at these new records but there's a price to pay potentially for that and that is perhaps putting off these rate Cuts further than we're able to tolerate um you know the the AI boom is creating wealth right people who own the stock uh but as you know that isn't been translating into to necessarily consumer spending incrementally especially for the average American and if the AI boom is actually replacing ing the labor market because that's really what is being targeted right turning a service job into a piece of silicon which 98% goes to Nvidia that's actually deflationary and it's actually deflationary to the labor market so I think the FED doesn't necessarily have to be worried if AI stocks are actually booming okay so let's let me make my final question away from AI aside from that your best idea in the stock market today is what well I think in vors really kind of have to realize this looks like a cyclical early cycle stock market trade Scott meaning you know October 2022 was the low and and the Market's getting stronger this year with breath expanding so I I like Industrials and and I like small caps I think those are good ways to add sort of equity exposure and if you wanted to avoid uh Tech and AI That's it's a good way to actually take advantage of what's happening man I know you like to make big calls you still sticking by this 50% gain in small caps for this year yes uh and you know it's premised on the idea that small caps are trading at 44% of The Price to Book of the S&P exactly where it was in 99 and If the Fed starts cutting and it's you know when or if uh I think it's a launch point just like 99 for 12 years of relative gains for the small capat so I think it's a good risk reward right now all right we'll leave it there Tom appreciate it good weekend to you we'll see you soon Tom Lee thanks
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