저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 당선 시 비트코인·경기민감주·상업용 리츠에 긍정적, 에너지·헬스케어에는 부정적이라고 봄(유가 하락 압력, 제약 가격 규제 우려). 6월 CPI 둔화로 소형주 랠리 시작, 러셀2000은 과거 10월~12월 랠리(약 30%)보다 큰 랠리 전망. 기관 숏 포지션과 낮은 밸류에이션(median P/E 2025E 10배)을 근거로 약 10주간 최대 40% 상승 가능. 7월 S&P500은 5,700~5,800 수준 기대, 8월은 소형주 강세·S&P 보합~소폭 하락 전망. 9월 금리 인하 확률 상승이 랠리 배경이며 지역은행·금융이 러셀2000의 40%를 차지해 지지 요인.
다듬은 글
welcome back to overtime Blue Chips and small caps both rallying today the dowall setting a record close and the Russell 2000 climbing 2% meantime crypto saw a nice bounce as well with Bitcoin climbing nearly 6% let's bring in fun Strat head of research Tom Lee Tom always good to see you so uh we got to start with the big picture including politics uh fortunately former president Trump was not significantly injured in this uh assassination attempt over the weekend but talking about the the impact on Investments as well of this overall environment if president Trump were to win uh you say it would be positive for Bitcoin and for cyclicals and Commercial REITs but I'm curious why negative energy and Healthcare uh thank you John um I think the energy the reason it's negative for energy is somewhat counterintuitive but uh president Trump is favorable for drilling and he'd want to expand where we look for oil but that would put downside pressure on oil prices so that's why we think it would actually ultimately be negative for energy stocks and for healthcare I think it has a lot to do with uh you know potentially repealing Obamacare but also just the fact that pharmaceutical companies and and their pricing I think would come under a lot more scrutiny as well okay uh now I got to ask about your small cap call I think you said a few months ago that small caps could rise 50% we saw at the end of last week some interesting rotation into small caps how much further in 24 can they run uh I think the rally that started last week for small caps is going to be larger than the October to December rally of last year that was over eight weeks almost a 30% gain for the Russell 2000 this time we have a larger short position by institutions we have small caps even more oversold and valuations whether you look at median P which is now at 10 times 2025 earnings even lower so we think that this move could be something like 10 weeks and as much as 40% so I think it is just starting and a lot of it has to do with the fact that you know the June CPI was so astonishingly soft I think it's giving the green light for small caps to Rally finally because the FED will you know ultimately cut hopefully by September and how much do you expect the S&P to potentially rise over that same 10 weeks uh that's a good question I think July uh our base case remains that July should be good for for the S&P 500 so you know something like 57 maybe even close to 5,800 um in July but I think that August is is really going to be one where the rotation becomes more evident and I think it's going to be a stronger small cap and maybe flat to slightly down for the S&P okay and so that's what I was getting at is is how strong can the small cap say the Russell 2000 as a B versus the S&P 500 you're saying after July you actually think that there's going to be a significant outperformance of small caps versus that index yes and and that's kind of what happened uh in that October December rally that as you know uh the large caps actually really sputtered uh in late December and early January because of that rotation into small caps and I I think again because the positioning is even more short relative to large caps that it could be an even more sizable move how much of that move is dependent on the FED cutting in September uh John it it is important one of the reasons small caps rallied as much as they did last week is that the probability of of a September cut went from 70% to 94% so I I think it's important for inflation to kind of continue to track pretty soft I mean we'll we'll get some inflation reports but I think the possibility of a July cut is there as well because we get retail sales tomorrow if that's soft and we get soft indicators of weak labor or inflation you know could be a July cut as well okay and how much of the durability of that small cap rally has to do with either the FED indicating that it's open to continuing cutting and the overall environment not suggesting that they have to because uh the consumer has gotten so weak that that's a necessity uh you know either way John I mean the reason the consumer is weak uh and we already know parts of the economy are pretty weak it's it's durable spending like use cars are falling like a rock and housing is kind of grinding to a halt and we know there's an inventory correction these are three sectors of the economy that are super rate sensitive so a Fed cut really does turn those things around but I think Mo most importantly Regional banks have been rallying Mark Newton our technicians says they've actually broken out financials are 40% of the Russell 2000 so I think you've you've already got a lot more support for a Russell a pretty big Russell move from from here Tom I love that you give us some specific picks and predictions uh and and you've been right for quite a street Tom Lee from fun Strat thanks for joining us still ahead Google is reportedly
Comments 0