저자: RaoulPal&TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Raoul Pal은 레이어1 블록체인 중 3~5개 네트워크가 가치를 독점할 것이며, ETH가 가장 큰 경제적 밀도를 가진다고 주장. 시장 급락(80%)에도 ETH·SOL·SUI만 경제적 밀도를 유지했다고 언급하고 SUI 기반 4~5개 레이어1 바스켓 보유를 권함. Tom Lee는 AI·에이전트·로봇 확산이 블록체인을 기계경제의 정산 레이어로 만들어 크립토 슈퍼사이클을 촉발할 것이라 주장. Chamath 언급 구간은 AI·로봇 확산 및 장기 주식 성장 관점. 가격 방향 구체 예측(1~3개월)은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
This multi-trillion dollar crypto market is entering a phase most investors still don't fully understand where a handful of blockchains could capture the majority of global value as finance, AI, and the internet itself move on chain. Raoul Pal believes that only three to five layer one blockchains will ultimately dominate the entire space absorbing massive amounts of value as every asset, transaction, and financial system migrates onto crypto rails.
He argues that networks like Ethereum are already deeply embedded into the system to the point where removing them would collapse entire sectors of the industry. At the same time, Tom Lee is connecting crypto to something even bigger, the rise of AI, autonomous agents, and robotics. According to him, the future internet won't just be humans interacting, it will be machines, and those machines will need a financial and coordination layer.
That layer is blockchain. What makes this moment different is that both of these narratives are converging at once, infrastructure dominance on one side, and a machine-driven global economy on the other. In this video, we're breaking down Raoul Pal's layer one dominance thesis, his framework for identifying winning chains, and Tom Lee's vision for how AI could drive the next massive wave of crypto adoption.
Because if they're right, this isn't just another cycle, this is the setup for ; So, that means for you that the layer one, whichever you choose, ETH, SOL, Sui, should be a majority of your portfolio. I still think, you know, [clears throat] I've done a lot of work, I just presented this Sui live about this, is for me, and I know I'm biased cuz I'm on the board, but but this is from deep analysis, is it is clearly ETH has the largest amount of economic and intelligence density of any of these.
Solana has is proven. And then we're talking about remember three or four. Who else? The only one through the analysis that I got to was Sui. Because it has more TVL per user than Solana does. And it's a lot younger. No and when the market fell 80% it didn't lose any economic density. In fact maintained it.
There was only three tokens that maintained economic density. ETH, Solana, Sui. And when you look at Sui on a bunch of other bases, you've got the output of intelligence cuz it's programmability, the speed and all of this stuff. So I just think there's a basket of four or five you can own layer ones and you can go to the beach and in 10 years time you can fly back from the beach in a private jet.
When Raoul Pal looks at crypto today, he is not trying to pick one winner. He's identifying a very small group that captures almost all the upside. His core idea is simple. You do not need dozens of layer one blockchains. You need exposure to a handful that already show real economic gravity. These are networks where developers build, users transact, and capital stays even during brutal downturns.
That last part matters more than people realize. During the last major drawdown when prices collapsed across the board, most chains lost activity, liquidity, and relevance, but a few held their ground. Ethereum continued to anchor decentralized finance and real-world asset tokenization. Solana proved it could recover usage and attract new demand.
Sui showed early signs of maintaining strong value per user despite being much younger. This is what Pal calls economic and intelligence density. It is not just about price, it is about how much real activity a network supports and how resilient that activity is under pressure. Recent data supports this shift.
Stablecoin supply has been expanding again across major chains and on chain activity has picked up as capital flows back into decentralized systems. That signals underlying strength, not speculation. So, instead of chasing every new token, the strategy becomes clearer. Own the networks that already behave like core infrastructure.
And once you see crypto through that lens, the opportunity starts to look much bigger than just another cycle. For the first time we've got a globalized infrastructure, digital infrastructure, unlike the internet, that we can participate in. That the AI and others will use and we get to reap the benefits of them.
Right, this is this is the trade-off we're giving to them taking part of our knowledge work away is they're going to give us the ability to make money from their economy that they create. Over time, the layer ones, people don't understand this, is the layer ones, if you think of all big networks that are important for infrastructure, whether it's operating systems, uh whether it's cloud, all of that, there's basically three to four main players.
Then there's a a bunch of specialists and then there's a tail of stuff. But it really accumulates to three or four to five people. This will be the same. So, it's going to be around three, four, five chains as layer ones. Then there'll be specialists, like Hypers are specialists. You know, can that continue to one vertical niche thing.
Okay, great. Um there'll be somebody who does something slightly different, privacy, but that's really on the Bitcoin side of the ledger, which is a non-smart contract. Um So, the infrastructure layer becomes much more important than people understand. We've talked about in the past, yeah. Every ticket becomes an NFT, you know, every All of these things, the the finance system comes on board.
that's all accruing value to layer ones. How I try and explain the value of a layer one is Ethereum. Okay, so if you were to pull the plug on Ethereum today, how much economic value do you destroy? I mean, huge. Every layer two, all of DeFi, all the real world assets, all of NFTs, everything that's been built on ETH goes to zero.
ETH is probably undervalued for that already, let alone the growth rate of these things, and let alone thinking, well, the finance system's going to come a lot on ETH and layer twos and stuff like that. So, that's how you got to think about what is the value of that infrastructure. Uh and so, if you think of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has one job, and it has one target, which is global savings.
And so, Bitcoin is a power law distribution, cuz over time, you can only get to 100% of global savings. Infrastructure layer can scale infinitely, which is why again, Google and all of those companies have just been like that on a log regression channel. Raoul Pal takes the argument further by framing crypto as something much larger than a financial trade.
He sees it as the foundation of a new global system that anyone can access and participate in. For the first time, there is a digital infrastructure layer that is not controlled by a single country or corporation. Unlike the early internet, this system allows users to own part of the network itself.
That changes the incentive structure completely. As more activity moves onto these chains, value flows directly to the participants who hold and use them. To understand the scale, think about how major industries evolve. Cloud computing ended up dominated by a few giants. Operating systems followed a similar path.
Pal believes layer one blockchains will follow that same structure with three to five dominant networks capturing most of the value while smaller chains fill niche roles. This is why networks like Ethereum are so important. If it were removed today, entire sectors like decentralized finance, tokenized assets, and digital ownership would collapse overnight.
The value is not just in fees, it is in the economic dependency built on top. At the same time, Bitcoin plays a different role. It focuses on global savings acting as a store of value rather than a programmable platform. But the real shift is what happens next. As more financial systems move on chain, this infrastructure does not just grow.
It compounds in ways most investors still underestimatntelligence comes in many forms. Firstly, intelligence of human capital. How many builders, programmers, developers. Then, what is the programmability and efficiency of that programmability? How fast does that blockchain convert energy into programmable outcomes.
So, ETH in this case is actually not great. But ETH wins massively for the number of developers, and economic density, the Lindy effect, the security, all of that, right? So, it's it's very solid. As I've said, it's like the Microsoft. You know, you don't get fired for ETH. You got Solana, which is much more efficient, much faster, much cheaper, um easier to deal with the NEATH.
Uh less developers, but good good density. Um you've got Sui, which is much earlier, but as we said, it's uh it's things like programmable um block times, block transactions of thousands transactions within one block. It's like a different order of magnitude than anything else. It's speed to finality is a different order of magnitude.
It's programmability is a different order of magnitude. So, what you've got is provable intelligence. Now, doesn't mean anything unless you can prove that Hey, how many applications does it have built on it? How many applications per user? You know, that kind of stuff. You start to see these metrics and you can see density forming.
It's still not there. It's still early. You know, you want to see you want to see a large portion of stable coins versus TVL, which is like that is stored energy in the system ready to be deployed into the system. Right now, Sui is like um Sui's TVL is equivalent to the stable coin size. You want to see twice that or more.
When you get to ETH, you see huge amounts. So, there's a there's a bunch of indicators, but what you're looking for is what can you do with the chain how little cost. So, when people look at blockchains, they look at discounted cash flow analysis to value them. How many How much fees does it generate?
It doesn't generate fees. ETH is so expensive. It's [ __ ] nonsense because because the very purpose of a network like this is to be the cheapest fastest. Yeah, absolutely. So, if you use discounted cash flows, you miss the actual signal, which is cheapest, fastest, most programmable will outperform over time.
Raoul Pal builds the case that crypto will not expand evenly across hundreds of competing networks. Instead, it will concentrate into a small group of dominant systems, similar to how cloud computing and operating systems evolved over time. His reasoning comes down to efficiency and survival under scale.
In every major digital infrastructure shift, value does not stay distributed. It clusters around the platforms that attract the most developers, liquidity, and real usage. Everything else slowly fades into the background. In this framework, Ethereum is treated as the base settlement layer for a large portion of decentralized finance and tokenized real-world assets.
Even critics who question its speed or cost still acknowledge its deep developer base and security record, which has strengthened over years of continuous usage. Solana represents a different design choice. It prioritizes speed and cost efficiency, which has helped it capture retail activity, trading volume, and new application growth during recent cycles.
This gives it a strong position in user-facing markets where performance matters most. Then, you have newer systems like Sui, which experiment with different execution models and claim higher throughput and faster finality. While still early, these designs point toward a competitive pressure that forces every chain to improve continuously.
The key insight is not which chain wins individually. It is that only a small number survive at scale. Everything else gets absorbed or ignored as liquidity consolidates. And as that consolidation happens, capital does not leave the system. It concentrates into the strongest networks, increasing their dominance even further.
And uh . But, of course, you're still going to wonder why crypto uh is so weak. And I think it's because people are forgetting that crypto is the future of money. Okay, the first thing I want to cover is agent and agentic and robotics and why crypto will play a role. This is a list of all the milestones since ChatGPT was introduced in 2023.
Okay, and there's been significant advances in the last 3 years. Of course, the first was the launch of ChatGPT. The second which happened in 2024 was when the agent systems began to develop capabilities to work with websites, interact with websites. Then the third big advancement has been robotics, Optimus Prime and their dexterity, and of course the in the Ukraine uh building drones at industrial scale.
And then finally, we're seeing uh superhuman capabilities develop. So, OpenAI developed a uh solved an 80-year-old puzzle and uh and then Figure AI launched a robot that could actually build uh and operate at scale in a warehouse. Okay. So, that means in the future, robots are already going to dominate most traffic on the internet.
And this is why Marc Andreessen and others have talked about this as being the grand unification if you got robot systems, you're going to have to control them. And that's where blockchain is much more effective than traditional rails at controlling uh what robots do. Chamath Palihapitiya connects the next major expansion in markets to a mix of demographics, productivity growth, and accelerating artificial intelligence.
His view is that long-term equity growth has historically tracked the expansion of the working-age population and gains in productivity, and that structure has not broken even through recent macro volatility. The more important shift in his framework comes from artificial intelligence. Since the launch of chat GPT in 2023, development has moved from early experimentation into real deployment across industries.
AI systems are now being embedded into coding, research, operations, customer support, and data-driven decision-making at scale. He then extends this into autonomous systems and robotics. Agent-based AI tools are beginning to execute tasks across digital environments without constant human direction.
At the same time, robotics development is moving into logistics, manufacturing, and controlled environments where machines can perform repetitive or structured work with increasing precision. The key insight is not just technological progress, but speed of adoption. These systems are scaling faster than most market participants expected, and that creates a gap between real-world capability and financial pricing.
As these AI and robotics systems expand, they will need mechanisms to coordinate actions, verify outcomes, and transfer value across borders and platforms. Traditional financial rails were not designed for autonomous machine-to-machine activity at global scale. This is where the long-term implication becomes important.
Blockchain systems could evolve into infrastructure that supports this machine-driven economy, enabling settlement and coordination without centralized intermediaries. The result is a potential supercycle where markets are not only driven by human activity, but increasingly shaped by autonomous systems operating continuously across the global digital economy.
The long-term thesis shared by Raoul Pal and Tom Lee is that crypto is moving into a phase where infrastructure dominance and technological acceleration merge into a single narrative. On one side, Raoul Pal's framework focuses on layer one blockchains as the core infrastructure of the digital economy.
In his view, only a small group of networks will survive at scale with value concentrating into systems like Ethereum, Solana, and emerging competitors such as Sui. These networks are evaluated not by traditional financial metrics, but by usage density, developer activity, and their ability to retain economic value during extreme volatility.
On the other side, Tom Lee builds a macro narrativutonomous agents. Since the rise of ChatGPT in 2023, digital systems have rapidly evolved from passive tools into active participants in economic workflows. Agent-based systems are now interacting with platforms directly, while robotics is expanding into logistics and industrial environments.
The overlap between these two views becomes critical. As AI systems scale and begin to operate autonomously, they will require infrastructure for coordination, verification, and settlement. Traditional financial systems were not designed for machine-driven global activity, especially at high frequency and scale.
This creates a convergence point where layer one blockchains could become the backbone for both human and machine economies. The same networks that host decentralized finance today could evolve into settlement layers for autonomous systems tomorrow. What emerges is a single structural thesis. Infrastructure becomes concentrated into a few dominant chains, while demand ex pands through both human adoption and machine participation.
If this trajectory continues, crypto is not just entering a new cycle. It is moving toward a fundamentally larger economic layer of the global system. .
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