저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 은행권 위기로 자금이 비트코인 등 디지털 자산으로 이동하며 비트코인 상승 흐름이 이어질 것으로 보지만, 이번 경기 리스크의 핵심은 인플레이션보다 디플레이션과 신용·거래상대방 위험이라고 본다. 은행 위기와 자금 이동: 실버밸리은행 사태 이후 비트코인이 19,000달러에서 약 28,000달러까지 오른 것을 자금 안전자산 이동의 증거로 설명했다. 예금자들이 은행을 떠나 머니마켓펀드 등으로 옮기며 대출이 위축될 것이라고 우려했다. 상업용·주거용 부동산: 지역은행 대출의 상당 부분(약 75%)이 상업용 부동산이며 이 부문이 크게 타격받을 것으로 봤다. 주거용은 대규모 공급으로 임대료가 하락하고 속도(velocity)가 둔화해 GDP에 부정적일 것이라고 전망했다. 연준 평가: 연준이 위기 중 금리를 인상했고 시장 신호(신용부도스왑, 금리, 수익률곡선, 비트코인)를 충분히 존중하지 않는다고 비판했다. 모든 예금을 보장하는 방식이 최대 안전과 유동성을 줄 수 있다고 봤다. 비트코인 전망: 비트코인을 통화기반 및 가격신호로 포함해야 한다고 주장했고, 장기적으로 하이퍼비트코인화 가능성을 언급했다. 블록체인, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, AI 등 혁신 성장도 기대했다. 리스크: 올해 주된 위험은 인플레이션보다 디플레이션과 거래상대방 리스크이며, 은행 시스템의 안전성 의심이 확산될 수 있다고 경고했다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 비트코인과 디지털 자산 자금 유입에 긍정적이나, 경기 둔화와 디플레이션 위험을 강조하는 중립~신중한 태도를 보였다.
다듬은 글
I understand why Bitcoin went from 19 000 on March thirteenth after the weekend of signature and Silicon Valley Bank basically going into receivership it was a flight to safety 19 000 to 20 nearly 28 000. that proof of concept right there decentralized transparent Audible auditable and so forth many people had their money in deposit in deposits of the bank and this crisis actually has forced them to focus on what they're earning in the banks and versus what they could get into money market in money markets so you see them in their machines in their minds what they're saying is I am going to lower my Risk by leaving the banking system and increase my return Now isn't that upside down that's not how the world works and this I worry about from a bank deposit point of view and the reason for this is lending and ultimately lending is going to shut down foreign we have the CEO of Arc invest Kathy Wood discussing the risks associated with the current economic crisis and the role Bitcoin will play wood expresses concern about people withdrawing their money from Bank deposits and shares how it will impact lending activities she notes that many people are losing faith in the safety of Banks and moving their money to digital assets like Bitcoin in search of safety wood also shares her view on how the FED will react to this trend to prevent money from leaving the system she also highlights the economic impact of the real estate Market's current difficulties not just in Residential Properties but commercial as well noting the potential consequences on GDP let's get right into the latest interview with Kathy Wood as she discusses her outlook for the market during this time of economic uncertainty and what we can expect in the coming weeks before we dive in don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe it's a tremendous help for the growth of the channel and helps us bring you more content just like this but what people have talked about available for sale fail you mark to the market right away for that you know quarterly so that hits earnings held to maturity if you sell those you it hits Equity but what they're not talking about is the rest of the asset side of the balance sheet of these Regional Banks and it's realist yes exactly they're getting crushed on everything yes commercial real estate 75 of real estate loans out there if they're from a bank are done in the regional banking system and I would submit that uh that residential will be hit in another way because there has been so much overbuilding with the capital markets now facilitating this of multi-family homes that we have now coming online the largest number of apartments in 40 years in 40 years so when I look at that I said Okay that was real estate speculation that was inflationary but I do think that rents will now come down dramatically velocity is coming down and I again worry about GDP and economic activity most banks have some amount of unrealized loss and security how big a deal is that who the heck knows the point is though that all like like a flock of pigeons the entire Market has been spooked right cash is now a a risk asset people are you know moving to money market funds people are you know moving into big Banks all this money is now liquid it's digital and it's moving around like a cloud and it's looking for the safest thing and if some of that starts getting out of the system into Bitcoin that is hyper bitcoinization or it is bitcoinization and then eventually hyper bitronization because it's it's looking for safety and once it realizes if it realizes that actually within the system there isn't safety and it starts seeking an exit that's basically the thesis all this money is being rendered super liquid and digital and then what's going to happen is with something like fed now they're going to try to impose Capital controls or or blocks on it getting out of the system so that's kind of my thesis as opposed to micro things about what's going to happen over here people don't think their money is safe in the bank the assurances that people are getting are conflicting they're like you know oh on the one hand you're responsible for going through all of your bank's 10 cues and on the other hand yelling is saying sometimes that they're going to back all deposits uh you know you're basically not ethic but you have fed dick right where all 18 trillion gets back the net effect of that is maximum certainty plus maximum liquidity and so here we're back to the velocity question everything you have just said tells me velocity will go down and that the risks to the economy are to the downside here including inflation so here we're coming to the same as we started at the beginning I understand why Bitcoin went from 19 000 on March 13th after the weekend of signature and Silicon Valley Bank basically going into receivership it was a flight to safety nineteen thousand to twenty nearly twenty eight thousand that proof of concept right there decentralized transparent Audible auditable and so forth so we are on the same page here I worry that this economic downturn this deflation is a much bigger problem right now if you're going to say Well they're just going to throw money at it we just saw that the FED raised interest rates for the first time ever in the middle of a crisis and today this week they've been talking once again about the need to increase interest rates at the next meeting so I don't think they respect Market signals and this is a big problem they are not looking at Market signals they're looking at massively lagging and unreliable indicators that are based in a world the statistics came from the Industrial Age so they're not even looking at the right numbers pricing signals are the most important signals right now credit default swaps interest rates yield curves right Bitcoin yes I agree with that you might have your hyper inflation of Bitcoin and I think what we're coming to if you are you seem to be nodding when I say what I'm saying about the banking system and the risks to the economy it is not going to be inflation that that we're worrying about this year it will be something else it may be counterparty risk but I don't think it's going to be inflation in the prices of goods and services and many people will say uh the dollar is going to collapse well you know the dollar is measured you if you're measuring it in terms of price and goods and services right now it's going up if you're looking at Commodities right the dollar is appreciating if you're looking at it in terms of other currencies after a 25 run in a very short period of time it's come down but at the same same time it's come down in the last few months commodity prices have come down so what does that tell you wood believes that maximum certainty and liquidity can only be achieved by backing all deposits through the FED which would provide maximum safety for consumers she emphasizes the need to add Bitcoin to the monetary base to get a better understanding of the money multiplier she also discusses the role of Bitcoin in understanding the current state of the banking system wood sees the current banking crisis as an opportunity for change she believes that the stock market is levitating due to the end of rising rates and lower interest rates she's hopeful that the positive form of deflation will cause enormous growth in blockchain related Innovations like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as well as robotics energy storage and artificial intelligence wood does criticize the Federal Reserve for not respecting Market signals she argues that the FED is not looking at the right pricing signals such as credit default swaps interest rates and yield curves she emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin as a pricing signal and believes that more people will seek insurance policies or alternative options like cryptocurrencies due to the recognition of what can go wrong with the volatile banking system what do you think of Kathy Woods latest interview and the risks associated with the current economic crisis and the role Bitcoin will play comment down below thanks so much for watching don't forget to like And subscribe this is a library of wealth we'll see you in the next video
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