Middle East Tension Causing Turmoil To The Crude & Global Market | Ed Yardeni's Analysis | ET Now

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중동 긴장으로 유가 변동성 확대, 강한 고용지표로 미국 금리인하 기대 후퇴 및 금리 상승 가능성. 중국 리커버리 랠리는 구조적 문제(인구 고령화, 부동산)로 지속성 낮다고 봄. 미국 증시는 Magnificent 7에서 S&P 493으로 확산 예상, 미국 중소형주에는 관심 낮음. 인도 증시는 유가 상승과 금리 하락 지연 시 부담. 현재 조정은 매수 기회로 봄.

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01. all right let's uh take stock then of all that's happening across the globe and uh the FI selling with Ed yini who is now join uh yard Deni rather who is now joining in on the show thank you so very much for taking the time out Ed um just given that we're going to have these Central Bank decisions in Focus there's been a lot of turmoil across the globe that has still not abated with respect to the Middle Eastern tensions crude oil prices as well have oscillated a lot due to that how are you looking at the set up for the global markets well I think you're absolutely right to focus on the Middle East because uh that is having an impact on the price of oil and this recent increase in the price of oil reflects that the Middle East conflict is uh spreading and it's becoming a more direct confrontation between Israel and Iran and Iran and that certainly could impact the availability and the price of oil and so that's got everybody jittery of course and then meanwhile in the United States there was a lot of talk about interest rates being Cuts aggressively by the FED but now people are having second thoughts about that following the very strong employment number that we had on Friday so and what are your thoughts on this China comeback trade uh most of the money managers some are beathing s of relief because China is finally moving up some are happy that the Contra call is working is the China comeback trade the real deal I don't think so I agree with your uh the position you took uh a few minutes ago and and in pointing out that a 25% increase in a basically a week doesn't happen very often and so the market really discounted a lot of the good news and you know a lot of it probably with short covering uh and we probably are seeing some rotation out of um India and into China but I don't think that's going to last very long because I think China's problems are structural a lot of it has to do with their rapidly aging demographic uh profile in addition uh they've tried to offset the weakness in consumer uh by dumping Goods in global markets and they're getting some push back from Europe from the United States and and other areas of the world and uh the Europeans recently responded with some tariffs on their electric vehicles coming out of China so I I think uh this China trade is not going to last very long I think the fundamental problems in the property market and underlying demographics are structural and can't be cured with um policy okay uh so what to your mind could be the Tactical trade for rest of the year could it be long bonds could it be long Emerging Markets or just St on cash well I I think the market is uh moving towards a more uh plausible outlook for interest rates which is Le at least in the United States and that is that they're probably not going to come down as rapidly as people thought and the bond yield actually has been going up on the perception that the FED might actually have uh eased too much on September 18th when they did 50 basis points that they may be overstimulating the economy and that has to be a concern after the strong employment report so I I I think bonds are going to provide better uh better yields here but I wouldn't say that any reason to to chase them meanwhile I think the US Stock Market broadens it's been pretty much focused on the Magnificent 7 but I think it's broadening out to what I call the S&P 493 there's lots of other good companies in the S&P 500 that will actually use the technologies that are made available like artificial intelligence to increase productivity I'm not as keen on small cap and midcap in the US and in India I think you know if you uh continue to have a correction here which is probably all it is I don't think this is any more than a a correction I think it'll be a buying opportunity look if interest rates are going to come down as much anytime soon in the United States and if oil prices are going to go up naturally that's going to weigh on India stock market yeah it is uh too many moving paths at great to have you on the show as always thanks for your thoughts my pleasure the comes a time when your heart calls for you to arise plant your feet solid into the ground decide your own limits and then break right through them become something more it's my time to rise