저자: Kevin · 외국인
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7월 나스닥 급락 이후 시장 약세가 지속될 것이라 주장. 구글 실적 호조에도 AI 수익화 우려로 좋은 뉴스가 나쁜 뉴스가 되는 국면이며, 2년물-10년물 금리 역전 심화와 금리인하 기대 급증을 경기침체 신호로 봄. 단기 반등 후 대선 전까지 추가 하락 전망, 현금 비중 확대 권고(25~30%). 나스닥100 435 하락 가능성, 테슬라 180 복귀 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here at this point you've probably heard that the market is doing pretty dang miserably it's very red at the moment and this sort of volatility really started back on July 11th on July 11th we had this sudden drop in the NASDAQ 100 and folks thought oh it's just a rotation into small caps and I argued that there is a chance we could be going into an environment where even good news turns into bad news that's because of two simple reasons concerns over valuations being stretched and an election coming up well folks exactly that is starting to play out at this very moment now this V video is not to Pat myself on the back this video is to tell us what do we do next because look at the disaster my friends the triple leveraged iwm so the Russell 2000 down 5.2% verive continues to crash all day long they do cooling for AI chips in other words uh AI like Nvidia h100s or whatever Blackwell chips they're deemed to be that supplier of water cooling for those Blackwell chips whoops I guess all of a sudden when open AI comes out and says yeah we're going to lose $5 billion running new models for our system and now Elon is suggesting that Tesla investors should support a $5 billion investment into the money losing like money losing I don't know what certainty grock if open AI is losing money I can only imagine how much money grock is losing then what we're really doing is we're throwing more good money after bad remember that five billion I want to make sure I said billion not million five billion open AI projecting five billion do loss Elon wants to raise $5 billion from Tesla money into Gro mind you that could build half of a gigafactory but let's be clear he's long given up on expanding capacity at this point this is not a Tesla video though point is we are being told by the market now and it's been going on for two weeks now H 13 days that this valuation growth might not last unless we actually start seeing some profits from artificial intelligence and Google yesterday told us the answer to profits from artificial intelligence is no yes we can make more highquality ads we can make more highquality products we could be more efficient within the company but guess what we're not making big dollars on the headline thanks to Ai and my warning that good news might turn into bad news because Google's report was actually very good has come true and again this is not to Pat myself on the back it is to ask the question what is next because when verv is down 12% Google is down 5.2% you've got socks up 14% it just keeps going and going and going this is a semiconductor short ETF it just keeps running made money traded it today send alerts this morning I go look calls on socks baby I'm up I hope you're up too but we'll talk about strategy going forward but let's be clear there's a lot of pain Tesla 11% arm 7 and a half the NASDAQ look at it it's fall it continues to fall crypto selling off just this weekend I sent an alert to my course members hey we might end up seeing a Bitcoin selloff with what's going on with a potential NASDAQ 100 sell off we're seeing it it's happening right now but again what's the game plan going forward that's the hard thing what do you do going forward because paler down 6.2 AMD is down five meta's down five this is a huge sell off 10% on super micro computer my goodness Dell's down seven crowd strikes down another 3.6% Cloud flare is down 5.9 this is a complete disaster rocket mortgage down three Apple's down three nothing is safe today the volatility index is up 20% today it's kind of wild so what's the solution well here's my take in my game plan my take is this Market's probably going to bounce over the next couple days mostly because the earnings that we have over the next couple of days after what we already had which was Google and Tesla in my opinion aren't that critical Chipotle Ford service now maybe Las Vegas Sands Royal Caribbean American Airlines Deckers Texas Roadhouse Lending Tree 3M fine but that's not really going to move this Market you know next week we'll have like Sofi and PayPal but then next Tuesday you're going to get into some that might make or break the market like again that's AMD Microsoft and otherwise that's when we really start getting into it we get Qualcomm meta uh arm all next week lamb research these are going to be pretty critical uh we also get apple and Amazon and Intel and coinbase next week so next week's going to be huge but here's my take I think after this insane sell-off that we have today there's a good chance we we have a bounce tomorrow I think there's a good chance Tesla will bounce uh iwm the q's all this stuff will bounce people will look at it again and go ah you know what it was just another you know one day healthy correction this is what everybody told me on July 11th they're like oh Kevin it's just a healthy pullback okay okay it's not the sign of anything larger fine fine so today we'll have our little healthy pullback quote unquote uh and then we'll bounce we'll bounce over the next few days that's fine it's very very rare to have multiple days in a row of the NASDAQ 100 being down 3% look at it on the chart here okay so we're going to be supported uh by probably the 460 line here you've got that nasty Head and Shoulders that's really starting to build out uh but I think what'll happen is you'll finish building out the shoulder well I mean quite frankly this shoulder was very short and we already broke past it we might even recover might recover back to 476 I don't know what's going to happen within the next two weeks but I want to be crystal clear about what I think the game plan is between uh August 1st you know give it a week from now or whenever uh and the election I think the Market's going down almost straight down and that makes me very nervous because I think it's going to be unfortunately recessionary I don't like saying that but I think it's going to be recessionary it's bad there's a reason why the fund that I manag went to 25 to 30% cash over the last uh uh you know two weeks here because we started to see the signs there's a reason why I've been saying hey I'm like I can't go super bullish here you know like I'm nervous I'm nervous about some issues here we're not too far off from the greed and fear index going to straight extreme fear but look at the bond market what is the bond market telling us the 10-year yield just jumped 4.3% or 4.3 basis points rather it's up at 4.28% now what's wild about that well you have to compare to where the 2-year is right now so you can do this with me let's do it look at this 10year 4.2 28 look at the 2year the 2year is Right Here 4.41 we are now just 13 basis points inverted in other words this 2-year yield is crashing while the 10year is going up that is a sign the Market is getting more and more nervous about recession in the near term and of course rate Cuts but likely forced rate cuts and at the same time as the market gets nervous about rate Cuts in the near term the market prices in those rate Cuts could lead to more inflation in the longer term so hence those longer term yields go up now I want to be very clear about this I want to try to make this as simple as possible okay I think the positioning is wait for some bouncing over the next few days here maybe you just want to be in now or go in small now and grow that position over time be be willing to DCA that could be an option too I think the positioning not personalized advice is quite frankly NASDAQ is probably going to go down to 435 that's NASDAQ 100 so it's down you want to increase cash or go short you could go call options on sle Q or or whatever buy shares of it I suppose if you want uh I think the semiconductors will continue to roll s Soxs is an interesting option again it could be readed tomorrow because I think there'll be a little bit of a bounce that'll be a DCA opportunity I think Tesla's probably going back to 180 I hate saying that but it's probably going back to 180 and honestly going back to 180 would be generous for the pain that Tesla still has between now and when we actually get to like really affordable interest rates uh you don't to revisit 140 but what's interesting is it's not just the yield curve that's steepening so substantially increasing the odds of recession it is also the market starting to price in substantially more Cuts listen to this for January we are now pricing in 3.3 Cuts uh that is the highest level we've been at 3.3 yeah 3.3 we are pricing in a full first cut uh for September we're pricing in 1.7 cuts by November so you could be getting a September cut November cut and a December cut in December we're also pricing in 2.64 rate cut so unfortunately and and I and I really hate this I think after a bounce here you're just going to keep bleeding between now and the election so I'm not trying to like hop on this bandwagon and go Oh look The Market's red today see look Market's red haahaa I've been screaming this for the past 2 weeks especially to everybody in the course member Liv stream it's been almost every single day that I'm like raise cash I'm nervous here's why things are about to roll over they don't have to roll over all at once although today feels like it's an all at once day but again I think we'll bounce off that I think what you'll end up with is a bleed and so some sideways the occasional day up leg down some sideways occasional up leg down I don't want to say that because I think it could lead to a recession it's not great but in the event we go into recession we're going to see rate Cuts rapidly and that will be glorious when the Federal Reserve dramatically Cuts that's when we might actually signal a bottom for the market the question is how much cash are you going to have in your pocket between now and then anyway if you want some more of my perspective have lifetime access join the courses on building growth linked down below go to meetkevin.com it's really simple the price is going to go up in a few days the price is guaranteed to go up over time so consider joining uh it's not personalized Financial advice you just get my perspectives like this raw and on a daily basis here's what I'm seeing here's what I'm thinking here are the plays that I'm thinking of making here are the plays I'm thinking of not making and people look at that information and they can do whatever they want with it you know some people are like yes Kevin I'm going to go on calls on end phase with you this morning because you're right it's probably going to go to 119 your boy Kevin actually paper handed it a little too early anyway uh despite that what's hilarious is I need to listen to myself more often because look at this straight up from the 113 which I always call out these lines to 119 it's it always matches these lines and then look what happened as soon as you lost 119 oh wow right back to 11340 in fact I sent course members an alert when it was at 119 and I said hey ding ding ding ding it's at 119 this could be a good opportunity to take some money in case you haven't taken some money out yet uh on that end phase trade and so that way like if you're not paying attention but at least you get an alert it's like oh nice that's awesome thanks Kevin again no guarant es we can make money but uh that's that's always my goal is to share really quality perspective uh anyway uh other people have asked me what about um Bitcoin Bitcoin is going to go down too and so are small caps it's all going to go down together now again I think we'll have a bounce but that bounce is in my opinion just an opportunity to raise a little bit more cash and and just take your time slow slowly move out of this market and let's get through the election season I'm saying it here in July and I I I don't want to be the Perma bear fearmonger but I am nervous and again I think we'll get green tomorrow but it's just going to go even more red between now and the election sorry folks what
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