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테슬라·구글 실적 발표 후 AI 수요 둔화와 높은 밸류에이션으로 시장 조정 우려를 제기. 테슬라는 규제 크레딧 덕분에 마진이 개선됐으나 FCF 미스, 슈퍼차저 성장 둔화, 로보택시 이벤트 연기로 단기 약세 판단. 테슬라 비중을 50% 이상 축소하고 현금 비중을 24~30%로 확대. 구글은 AI로 광고 효율과 검색 수익은 개선되지만 AI 직접 매출 폭발은 단기 어렵다고 봄. 테슬라 장기 전망은 긍정적이나 현재 가격은 비싸다고 평가. 엔페이즈는 수요 회복 기대 속 매수 기회 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
well Google and Tesla just reported earnings and they might be the Catalyst for pushing the market over the edge and not in the way that we want it to go right before election season let's get started with what the heck just happened first of all sort of an intro here the expectation and concern was that we might hear something about slower artificial intelligence revenues slower growth combined with higher valuations and the election and with well that's kind of what we got Google confirmed a Slowdown or more patience being required before seeing uh AI profitability keep in mind quality of their products is increasing and the output of their AI Innovation is increasing we'll talk more about that in just a moment and Tesla complained that Nvidia chip demand is so high that they're basically forced to make their own Dojo chips which once again reiterates that Dojo is more of a side project even though Elon does think Dojo will be competitive at one point with Nvidia they still need their Nvidia chips and despite all of this nvidia's stock is down about 1 and a half% in the post market now that could change and fluctuate rapidly and it seems like demand should still be pretty dang well there for NVIDIA especially with what we heard from Tesla but the question now is what are the details of what happened here and could this lead to an AI selloff I'll start broadly yes this earning season could lead to a market smaller kind of Correction before the election but I've had that thesis for about a week and a half to two weeks now and what I've been doing is I've been trimming positions in my course member live streams I've been explaining my positioning I'm about a five out of 10 on the bull bear scale and I've increased the cash positioning in the fund that I manage to up to about 30% somewhere between 24 and 30% we also trimmed our Tesla exposure by more than 50% going into these earnings and we talked to course members this morning about the concerns going into these earnings some of those concerns that we talked about going into this earnings that we kind of already had a little bit of a short squeeze over the last period where Tesla ran up to 265 we also talked about how it's right here this is like just slap together some notes uh this was our course live stream this morning uh and uh we talked about Robo taxi the delay killing momentum Robo taxi event likely to be by the rumor sell the news going to be years before Robo taxi is commercially viable euphoric pricing implies that these are all right around the corner but they're not uh and today for the stock you need what you really need is even better margin in q1 a lot of that unfortunately we saw in the earnings came from regulatory credits a return to free cash flow though look at this I even wrote the Market's pricing in 1.9 billion in free cash flow and I wrote yikes that's a huge ask and sure enough we missed on that free cash flow we have to beat Market enthusiasm to justify maintenance of 250 which I didn't think it was going to happen uh and uh Elon will be drilled about Robo taxi sure enough this is what happened and this isn't the place for announcements sure enough that's exactly what he said although we did get a few insights none of them enough to actually create any kind of sustained Euphoria and therefore I wrote Ken it rally of course but I lean towards not and that's why I went in trimming uh going into this earnings uh release so what did we hear uh well let's get into some of the details quick shout out we got prices going up on the courses on building your wealth soon so check those out at meetkevin.com bundle coupons email us at staff meetkevin.com we've got a mastermind at meetkevin.com Mastermind that's really popular we've got small groups and private one-on-one masterminds now uh so check those out at meetkevin.com Mastermind and architect and Structural Engineers if you are an architect or a structural engineer and you want to relocate to California we'll pay your relocation pay you a great salary even if you're both gosh but we'd hire separately as well like a licensed architect licensed engineer will help you get licensed out here in California we need you send us a uh a jobs request uh send us a resume and sort of a 60-second uh pitch on you to jobs meetkevin.com stru R engineer and architect could be two separate people all right folks let's get into it Tesla regulatory credits increased 3x year-over-year 2x sequentially from q1 all the way up to $890 million this is remarkable and it's in part because what you're seeing is a reduction in well frankly other oems competing for these regulatory credits as they're leaning away from well quite frankly uh you're leaning away from producing electric vehicles interest rate buy Downs helped Drive the production and delivery numbers that we saw in Q2 but I worry that this is a little bit of what I call a good kitchen sync quarter in other words it happened to be the best quarter for Elon to have a stock comp plan vote and so what did we get in that quarter capex reduction now it's ramping again in Q3 production reduction now it's ramping again in Q3 interest rate buy downs and those are also here in Q3 which is lowering the average selling price of these vehicles uh your average selling price right now is down to about $447 74 and it does look like the average selling price uh is a reflective of the interest rate buy Downs so those interest rate buy Downs are coming off that Top Line apparently uh anyway you've got uh you've got a lot of expenses that are still coming later this year you do have a lot of cash you've got over 156 billion doar of free cash now about $2.5 billion of that did come from debt that they just raised but but you definitely have expenses that are going to grow in the rest of the year they still and they reiterated they still expect to spend $10 billion in capex and uh given that uh they slow down their spending in Q2 it means we got a lot of spending ahead of us supercharger growth slowed to just 3.5% sequentially which annualized to about 14% which is down about 10 percentage points year-over-year this isn't great this might lead to more congestion as Tesla invites other charging customers uh to use Tesla's supercharging Network so you would actually expect the supercharger Network to grow faster not slower not seeing that at the moment the Tesla did start delaying some of the roll out to some of these other thirdparty oems and you did end up seeing uh some of the Tesla supercharging team rehired uh Tesla still focused on cost reductions they were actually pinged on this they're like why are you focusing on cost reductions if you're trying to grow more uh the same question came up about Giga Mexico which I actually thought the answer was pretty interesting about when about this we knew that gig of Mexico was on pause but why was interesting it was previously on pause because macro is concerning now it's on pause because well if we manufacture more outside the United States like in Mexico we could get screwed by tariffs via a a you know president Trump Administration which is also interesting because we have essentially Elon himself has confirmed that yes he is donating about $45 million to a super pack that is his which is supporting Donald Trump for president anyway uh margin beat at 18% but again that margin growth mostly moved because of that expansion in regulatory credits so not great increased deliveries from Shanghai that's good audibles now available on the car fine more affordable options remain on track for 2025 and they are expected to be built on the same manufacturing lines as current Vehicles only the robo tax is supposed to use the unboxed method of uh Manufacturing this is where you're not going down an assembly line but rather multiple parts of the vehicle are being assembled by let's say Optimus robots at the same time energ may continue to grow at a faster Pace than cars that's exactly what we're seeing right here you did get a profit Miss EPS Miss again this is the fourth straight time in a row Tesla uh is also likely to go negative year-over-year on vehicle deliveries Elon on the conference call says competing electric vehicles haven't done well they do expect again that more affordable model to begin production in the first half of next year and it sounds like one of the reasons They delayed the robotaxi event to 1010 October 10th which is a momentum buzz kill which isn't great for for the stock uh is because they want to introduce other models at that moment as well which could be the lower cost model and we also got a hint on the uh the Roadster here that the Roadster announcement might be coming for production next year so you could see something at the robo taxi event as well for uh the Roadster higher end vehicle now I personally have what I call a uh sort of a I call it my this is inspired by rust it's a video game Sorry I call it my 2 by two foundation for investing in stocks and the 2 by two Foundation is built on four premises valuation pricing power sentiment and momentum and bankruptcy risk Tesla does not have bankruptcy risk however Tesla's valuation is very high before this earnings report we were sitting at a 3.1 Peg for the next four years of growth at 32% EPS growth priced in that's expensive that's because the PE Ratio right now sits for this forward year at 100 now obviously you're going to have about a 7% discount to that now given that the stock is falling 7% the valuation is very high for a Manufacturing Company though which should be closer to about 1.67 Peg pricing power in the industry though pricing power in general for Autos is substantially weaker than pricing power at other companies sentiment and momentum just got Buzz killed and again I don't think there's bankruptcy risk here so you're really missing two of these foundations right the valuation is high they do have in-class pricing power they don't have bankruptcy risk but sentiment and momentum really started dying after that Robo taxi event got killed and unfortunately this earnings call is probably just going to accelerate sentiment in the negative Direction which isn't great uh so near-term pricing not super excited about it again there's a reason why it r reduced my exposure to it by over 50% leading into this earnings report and we've been talking about this and sending alerts about this uh in the uh uh in the course member live streams and talking about this as well but anyway continuing on uh Elon believes we have the scale uh and production capabilities to be the most efficient EV producer in the world and that that will be really useful for Optimus production I just want to be clear as much as I love the whole idea of robotaxi and as Elon puts at the Airbnb on Wheels you know introduce your car to the fleet we've heard all this crap before we're not there yet and and I understand the market can get really enthusiastic about pre- pricing in these things but until we actually see Revenue it's almost impossible to price it in and to stand on that valuation because we haven't gotten to full self-driving unsupervised yet we're still trying to get to you know more than a few miles between interventions and it's probably going to take years before we get there this doesn't mean I'm bearish long-term Tesla but short-term it's not good you don't want to price in Robo taxi and you don't want to price in Optimus in the short term yes Optimus was doing something productive they alluded to initially uh in their uh their press deck release and then in their slide deck release it's funny because I I joked and you could fact check me on this I joked about it live I'm like what are they going to have the Optimus putting batteries in a box because they're like oh yeah we have the Optimus working with batteries and uh well I'll just I'll just let you look on screen and yeah anyway 12.5 release for FSD should be a big shift now we're going to merge the highway and City stack that's great uh this idea about other oems using uh FSD have has once again resurfaced in the earnings call I'm tired of hearing this they literally say yeah yeah other oems have expressed interest they've been saying it for over a freaking year now I'm overhearing it it ain't happening especially when you have the CEO at Ford going we're going to make money with software they want their own crap and guess who's going to give them their own crap Nvidia you could literally just take the Nvidia Drive platform and plug it into your garbage at Ford and build your own software rather than paying Tesla for it I'm not saying it's going to be close but in five years they're all going to have their own FSD and they're all going to use their own crap this OEM stuff uh licensing Tesla FSD I put a 1% chance on it happening and if it happens by all means I will eat my words I was wrong about Google mind you and we're going to talk about Google in just a moment they really impressed so I absolutely can be wrong and I I guarantee you I will be wrong in the future again just saying I'm I'm highly confident this whole OEM licensing thing sorry anyway uh Optimus is already starting to perform T whatever this is nonsense uh eventually yes he expects that Optimus will will be able to perform tasks inside of the facility uh at Tesla for Tesla uh and that they'll have maybe a thousand robot or um Optimus robots doing things practically uh inside the facility so that'll be Optimus version one and they expect to get to Optimus uh version 2 in 2026 which maybe third parties can then license license rent or buy uh long-term Optimus achieves arcs valuation several times over says Elon Musk but again that implies that you don't have substantial robot competition which you will also have a substantial amount of robot competition anyway uh when do you expect the first Robo taxi uh ride the answer was depends when we can get to unsupervised FSD so it doesn't actually sound like robotaxi is anything other than just here's a car that uses FSD so if you really want to know how well FSD is going you just need to uh own a Tesla and then watch the FSD upgrades now I want to be clear FSD is really good when I drive I use it all of the time uh so I'm a big fan of it and it's gotten better you know some of the first versions of of 12 like 121 2 3 weren't that great 124 is fantastic I absolutely love it so don't get me wrong it's great is it going to be driving itself anytime soon no uh next uh we've got uh this potential Osborne effect Elon was talking about which is where people cancel their current orders because a new uh product is announced and that's why he doesn't want to announce any kind of uh new product yet sure okay Elon uh let's see here FSD and Europe is well behind working on approvals to get supervised FSD in Europe and China hopefully by the end of the year uh in the future you'll be able to open up your app and we'll send a car to come pick you up I understand this Arc thesis that you know you're going to get 25 cents per Robo taxi mile or whatever I also think that is broadly bull sh9t the reason for that is I think every if literally everyone who owned a Tesla in every city submitted their car to the robo taxi Network when they weren't using it the value of a taxi will plummet the cost will compress so freaking rapidly you'll barely make a dime uh over your cost vehicle depreciation charging cost that it it is going to compress instantaneously now that'll destroy uberon lift but I think you still got a few years for that all right uh Google so okay Google I actually have to say I'm really impressed with oh yeah anyway so short-term bearish Tesla longer term I like it but I'd like it cheaper uh so yeah you really also need to get back over 230 otherwise on a technical basis you're going to probably go back under 200 for Tesla anyway it's something I've been warning about for a few weeks in the course member live streams as well people keep asking me like oh what's going on with Tesla I go it's going to go down like Q3 Q4 it's by then it's going to go down it might happen a little sooner than we thought this going me be bearish I'm just trying to be realistic and you go back and get the receipts uh anyway when you join those courses mind you you get all my course member live streams going all the way back to like 2017 so you just pick my brain all throughout the evolution it's kind of cool Google wants to bring AI to everyone you know they're they're trying to do a very similar to Apple thing it's like oh what did I eat in that restaurant at Paris last year I I don't know why that's super functional but whatever I guess it's cool uh and um it sounds very apple-esque what they're finding is that they're able to increase efficiency uh for advertisements uh for example their pmax product which is performance Max it's what you could set your uh ad account to uh it converts 25% better than the non- pmax version that's AI pmax uses Google's AI so what you're finding is AI is just making products better quality of products is going up costs are going down within companies but they're not really driving incremental revenues they're not necessarily increasing the revenue line they're just decreasing costs and making all products better like more functional and useful for end users which is a good thing like net net AI is great but is it really going to be this Revenue windfall everybody's expecting probably not in the in the very near term uh and at some point we don't know when that is that could be you know quarters from now it could be years from now at some point the cost of AI chips will collapse because the AI infrastructure will be built out uh YouTube second most watched after Disney for streaming YouTube's benefiting from connected tv YouTube benefits uh from more advertisers as well search remained the largest contributor to revenue growth retail search specifically uh and they are really kicking butt because they're integrating Gemini right into Google I actually think this was well played I was wrong on this I thought people would just use AI search apps as opposed to Google and it would replace it but frankly AI 40 or uh Google AI Google 4D chest this and just basically built the AI search results right into search and now they put ads above and below it and they're expecting to have product ads within the AI results brilliant absolutely brilliant hands down loved what I heard from Google loved what I'm seeing from Google I'm a Google Cloud user all my companies use Google we we're big fans uh 32% operating margins YouTube subscription revenues were growing healthy watch time much slower pace of hiring with a slight pace of growth going into Q3 this is great that's anti-recessionary you don't want to hear more layoffs they're already negative like 2,000 it's about 1% smaller Workforce than what you had year-over-year uh and and you are growing so that's good but it shows you you're kind of on a little bit a little bit of a teeter there right planning to invest $5 billion into way self-driving car unit we uh are they're committed to privacy but they're not getting rid of cookies yet which I'm not really sure how that is going to affect trade desk because getting rid of cookies was kind of what trade desk was really excited about with uid 2 and this is their sort of solution to cookies but then again maybe you can get better data if you do have access to cookies so it could just be a net net neutral there for trade desk so but anyway uh yeah it seemed like markets reacted pretty negatively to this idea that you weren't going to get more revenue from AI n phase uh despite a 19.5% Miss on micro inverter shipments the stock is remarkably up 4 and a half% and afters I think people were expecting the worse they're expecting a big collapse so hence the stock is up and they indicated that customer demand is up 5% in Q2 that 85% of Q Q3 shipments are already booked inventory is normalizing the sales Channel and uh sales outside of Cal California is flat sales are up 7% in Q2 outside of California so you know for me you know if I'm looking for Bu The Dip uh maybe it's end phase or honestly it's just waiting because I think there's a chance going into this election you're going to want a little bit of a cash buffer and that's why I've been increasing like I put my money where my mouth is I I I can't advertise uh my Fund in here I'm not trying to advertise my Fund in here I I use it most I it's my own sort of tool I I love it I think it's fantastic but I just put my money where my mouth is there so that's uh that's a sort of a long-term uh vehicle and and uh when I see opportunities for short-term balancing uh I do that so I like building cash uh and then when the market dips bang I personally think broadly not personalized advice for folks now might be an opportunity for some cash building so with that said let's go ahead and pull up the sticks here Tesla now down 7.91 per.
I want you to see we lost the 250 support this was a really critical line we got rejected there mostly throughout the day uh was able to also uh make some profitable well actually we had one profitable I only made one trade today uh but anyway profitable trade today if you want all my uh short-term or long-term Buy sell alerts can't guarantee you'll make money but you'll get all my perspective make sure you join the stocks and psychology money group any of the courses on building your wealth will give you access to the course member live streams for Life uh including all the the TA we talk about short-term long-term alerts the Discord Community you name it Tesla's almost down 8% here the next support level right now is sitting about 225 and if if we lose these 220s unfortunately we're going to be back to the 195s so watch these levels here at Tesla uh Nvidia down after that Google earnings call and NASDAQ futures also down half of a percent Bitcoin is sitting roughly around the levels that we saw when Biden resigned I think there could also be some near-term risk offness in the cues that spills over to bitcoin uh Google negative about 1.76 1.8 so not too much of a big move here uh on Google however it is getting rejected by that 194 line you can pretty much see that perfect rejection here next stop is 152 if we do start a downtrend I don't think Tes um Google's earnings were bad enough to really support that kind of downtrend you'd really need a larger market correction but we might end up getting that so there you go thank you so very much for watching really appreciate you all uh remember we've got that amazing Mastermind uh it could be one-on-one in person or small group with uh c-level Executives from companies who are in it business owners Real Estate Investors Hotel years you name it you want to be in it uh check it out at meet kev.com Mastermind that is a higher ticket option uh the next uh you know the best option I think everybody should be a part of for those course member live streams uh and what you get in those courses on building your wealth at me kevin.com CR
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