Where Will Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Be in 2025 (and Beyond) | TSM Stock Analysis

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AI 수요 호황으로 TSMC의 2024년 실적이 기대 이상이었고, 2025년 자본지출은 약 400억 달러(전년 대비 약 33% 증가)로 계획됨. 파운드리 산업은 2024년 6%, 2025년 10% 성장 전망이며, TSMC 매출은 2025년 20% 중반(약 24~26%) 성장 예상. AI 가속기 매출은 2024년 3배 증가 후 2025년 2배 전망. 발언자는 AI 수요를 구조적 장기 성장으로 해석하며 인텔 점유율 하락 수혜를 언급.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. thanks to boom business was better than expected in 2024 but where will the business be in 2025 and Beyond that's what we're going to talk about in this video that's going to be the topic of discussion management gave investors a great Outlook about itself and the industry it operates in for 2025 and Beyond so let's take a look at some of these key factors I want to thank the mly f in 2024 the company spent $30 billion on capital expenditure on o make sure that it stays in the lead in advanced semiconductor Technologies the company says they're well positioned to capture the multi-year structural demand from the industry Mega trends of 5G AI and high performance Computing in 2025 they expect their capital budget to be between 38 and 42 billion in other words $40 billion at the midpoint if you compare that with 2024 at $30 billion it looks like they are increasing their capital expenditure budget by roughly 33% that's a big increase and this goes along the lines with big capital expenditure increases at several of the large tech companies including several other semiconductor manufacturing companies it seems like these large businesses are bullish on growth for the next 5 10 years to be spending this much to be increasing their spending by this much year over year over year we've seen this over the last I would say three years now two or three years now as a result the primary generator of this demand is artificial intelligence that's what has unlocked all this capital expenditure from companies like Taiwan semiconductor asml Intel Micron and then some of their customers like Amazon Microsoft meta platforms Apple Etc they're all increasing their spending alphabet to capitalize on this growth Trend they don't want to miss out they see this as a no-brainer to increase investment they go on to say that 2024 was a mixed year for the global semiconductor industry and that's true AI demand was soaring through the roof but everything else was limited uh consumer sentiment consumer demand for electronics uh the whole electronics Industry was mediocre at best you can say less than expected it was all AI related that was driving growth the consumer industries were like low single digits in smartphones and personal computers and laptops and other areas as well not very strong demand but uh artificial intelligence was absolutely soaring so the overall industry The Foundry industry manufacturing according to Taiwan semiconductor increased by 6% in 2024 but Taiwan semiconductors Revenue increased by 30% indicating that the company gained significant market share most of which came from well I shouldn't say most of which but some of which came from Intel Intel is losing significant market share in this category Intel is actually even though they have their own manufacturing they're Outsourcing some of their can do what it does a lot better than what Intel can do unfortunately for Intel stock investors the company saying that they forecast The Foundry industry to grow by 10% in 2025 so in 2024 the industry grew by 6% Taiwan semiconductors expecting the industry to grow by 10% in 2025 so a big increase in demand for the overall semiconductor manufacturing industry is expected and of course this is going to be supported by artificial intelligence and a very mild recovery in every other segment smartphones computers tablets Etc very mild recovery in those markets but a robust increase in demand for anything related to artificial intelligence uh Taiwan semiconductor forecasting their own full year Revenue to increase by close to Mid 20% in US dollar term so mid the 20% growth means 24% 25% or 26% between 24 and 26% is what Taiwan semiconductors forecasting in Revenue growth in 2025 and so another year of big market share gains for Taiwan semi conductor is basically what they're saying if the overall Market is only growing by 10% Taiwan semiconductors is growing by 25% then it's gaining market share because it's growing faster than the market that means it's taking some share away from companies and some of it is growth for the industry overall and some of it it's taking away from other companies they go on to say that even after tripling in 2024 they forecast revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025 as the strong surge in AI related demand continues so one of or two of Taiwan semiconductors customers are in this area Nvidia of course the most notable customer and if Taiwan semiconductor is saying that their AI accelerated revenue is going to double that's a lot of orders coming from Nvidia most likely and Nvidia has talked about how they are pretty much sold out of most of their technology in the upcoming year so Nvidia probably is just going to Taiwan semiconductor and saying we want to buy as much as you can produce and that's what I'm imagining the conversations are like between these two Nvidia just saying whatever you can produce we'll take it because we are sold out and we have a waiting list so if you can produce more for us we'll take it because we have so much demand that we can sell it the question is can you produce it and so Taiwan semiconductor tripled its Revenue in this category in 2024 and then after trip Ling it's expecting to double again in 2025 these are massive increases here to adjust the structural increase in the long-term market demand profile tsmc is working closely with their customers to plan their capacity and investing in Leading Edge specialty and Technologies to support the growth and so these are conversations between Taiwan semiconductor and Nvidia and AMD and Intel and apple and all of its Partners so that Taiwan semiconductor can get a better idea of what their orders are going to be like not just for this year but also for next year and the year after that and if they can secure commitments from their partners for products two three four five years in the future that'll give Taiwan semiconductor more confidence to invest in manufacturing to invest in research and development to make sure they have what their customers and partners are looking for they don't want to miss out on an opportunity to make sales they also don't want to overinvestment growth and excellent profit margins and earnings increases over this last decade and over the last two years specifically and it would be reasonable to assume that Taiwan semiconductor will continue managing this surge this structural increase right when a company says structural increase what they mean is durable longer lasting this isn't like a oneoff thing where this year in the next two years demand will be strong but then it'll level out right no what they're saying is there's a structural shift going on where demand is higher because of this technology because of artificial intelligence there's just been a bump up in demand for our semiconductor manufacturing process and so to adjust to that structural increase we need to make sure that we invest and we have the capacity to catch that opportunity so we don't miss that opportunity and that opportunity goes to some of our Rivals who can potentially leap fraud us if we don't invest in having that technology available