저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 1월 29일 실적 발표를 앞두고 매수 여부를 분석. 매출 8% 증가(252억달러), 영업이익률 10.8%로 상승, FCF 27억달러. 4분기 인도량(495,570대)이 생산량(449,445대)을 초과해 재고 감소. 저가형 모델은 1H 2025 출시 목표지만 약 3만7천달러 수준으로 낮아질 전망. 포워드 PER 105로 고평가, 자율주행 관련 구체 정보 기대 낮음. 결론은 매도 평가 및 실적 발표 전 매수 비추천.
다듬은 글
Tesla is January 29th 2025 which has investors asking if they should buy Tesla stock as well as preview other big picture items investors should look out for from Tesla in its upcoming earnings release so let's get right into the detailn its latest quarter Tesla's total revenues increased by 8% to 25.2 billion and the operating margin jumped impressively by 323 basis points to 10.8% the operating margin in the same quarter the prior year was just 7.6% and I was impressed how the company was able to increase profit margins despite the fact that they have been lowering prices on basically all of their models several times right they've offered lower prices they've offered financing incentives they've offered discounts on charging discounts on full supervised driving etc etc and yet the margins increased despite that fact that goes to show how good the company is at learning its operations and getting better and better at producing these vehicles at lower cost free cash flow also jumped to 2.7 billion up from 848 million in the same quarter last year so one thing we already know about Tesla's fourth quarter is how many models they produced and delivered so in the latest quarter they delivered 495,000 570 vehicles and they produced 49,4 45 so you could see more deliveries than production that means inventories likely decreased in the quarter as the compan rightfully adjusting to the lower than expected demand for electric vehicles Rising competition and they don't want to offer too many discounts and if they produced more they would have to offer more and more discounts to sell these models in the latest developments their newest model the Cyber truck was announced that they were offering discounts across the board on Cyber Tru models because those are building up in inventories and parking lots and they don't want the inventories to rise too much so that figure 49559 was much higher than the previous quarter in the third quarter of 2024 in the third quarter of 2024 they delivered 462,000 000 unit increase of deliveries from the previous quarter and if their margins were relatively the same as in the third quarter then it's going to lead to a significant increase in operating income profitability and cash flow if they were able to increase operating margin in the previous quarter at 463,000 deliveries it's going to be much higher with 490 something th000 deliveries in the current quarter all right one of the bigger things that investors need to look out for from Tesla when they report these quarterly results is an update on the lower priced model the company in the third quarter press release said that they have plans for new vehicles including more affordable models and that remains on track for production in the first half of 2025 so here we are in 2025 we're halfway through January and when the company reports it'll be towards the end of January so they should have a pretty good idea if the more affordable model is still on track for the first half of 2025 if you've been following Tesla stock I don't need to remind you about how many times the company has delayed production gave you a promise of having some product or service at a certain point in time and then when it came time to deliver on that promise they told you to not pay attention to that anymore to pay attention to something else and delayed the product at some Future Point already this lower priced model which was initially promised to be around $25,000 is going to be much more expensive excluding the tax credits if there is still tax credits right the incoming Administration is threatening to remove tax credits for electric vehicles without those tax credits the rumors are that this new model will be at the $37,000 price point instead of the initially promised $25,000 price point but it would still be an improvement from the current prices which are over 40 in the mid 40,000 price point so this will help and it'll be a fresh new model which always creates demand from consumers car sales are heavily dependent on new models people don't just look at the performance of the car how many miles per gallon it gets or how much miles per charge it gets and all of these things a lot of people just look at the car the way it looks it's new it's relatively uh lesser owned not as many people have it and so there's though that facilitates demand for car sales right PE cars can last 10 15 years years but people usually only keep a car for maybe four to six years because they see a new model and they go in and they buy it so that would be the primary driver of sales of this new model is that because it'll be new right the price reduction is not going to be all that much maybe 10 15% lower than the current models available for Tesla so that um story that Tesla was telling investors 5 six seven 8 years ago about having this lower priced model and it's going to facilitate millions and millions of new car sales that's not going to happen right that's not going to happen it's going to be around $37,000 it looks like if the initial rumors are true but it's still going to drive more sales for a company that's already expanding profit margins it's already the best electric vehicle company in the world and this will only help the company facilitate and further improve that lead and of course the other big thing investors although you're probably not going to get very much new information on their driverless car technology uh you're probably going to hear more of the same Promises of how they're on track for some future date and you know those repeated statements I don't expect anything concrete on driverless cars in the upcoming earnings release however I do expect something more concrete on the lower priced model in the upcoming earnings release so should you buy Tesla stock before it announces these earnings well it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 105 105 this mean this makes this stock about five times as expensive as the average stock in the S&P 500 it's about three or four times as expensive as Tech peers AI Tech peers like Nvidia Microsoft it's five times more expensive than alphabet and so I've been saying this for a while Tesla stock is very expensive it's incorporating all of those excellent prospects it's already incorporating that into the valuation and so it's already trading it's already selling at a price that assumes all of those things are going to happen for sure on the dates that Tesla's management team has said is going to happen so if you believe Tesla's management team that they are going to deliver the lower priced model in the first half of 2025 they are going to deliver driverless Robo taxis in 2026 or 2027 and it's going to be a huge hit if you believe all of that then maybe Tesla stock is right for you but for everyone else I don't think Tesla stock is a Buy in fact I have Tesla stock r as a sell and so going into earnings I would say uh no do not buy this stock at the very least if you're interested in Tesla stock wait till the earnings come out digest the new information and then make a decision on Tesla stock Val
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