저자: 시윤주식 · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 시장은 관세 발언에 적응하며 횡보 박스권 상단에서 상승 중이며, 관세는 4월 초로 연기되는 흐름이라 안도감이 형성됐다. 코스피·코스닥도 장기 추세선 돌파 후 추가 상승 여지가 있으나 일부 구간은 고평가 구간이라 현금 비중 확대를 권한다. 코스피 PBR 0.8 부근을 바닥으로 보고 0.91 수준에서 1.1까지 상승 여지를 언급한다. 엔비디아·테슬라 등 주요 기술주는 반등 흐름을 보이며, 조정 시 매수 기회로 본다.
다듬은 글
10 Minutes a Day Stock Investment: Studying Practical Trading, Let's Go for Easy Stocks. Looking at the overall market, it continues to be on the rise from yesterday, showing further gains. The US stock market is currently adapting to Trump. Bitcoin is taking a break; I think that is how we can summarize it.
Last night, two things emerged that might look bad on the surface. First, as I announced, the Producer Price Index was released and came out higher than forecast by 0.1%. However, the market is currently composed. It seems to be focusing more on political issues than on indicators or earnings. The atmosphere is like, "Hey, it went up 0.1%, but that's no big deal." Right?
The day before, the Consumer Price Index also rose by 0.1%, but in the past, there could have been a significant short-term decline; however, it was immediately pulled back up. "Hey, 2.9% is not 3.0%, it's practically the same." That is the sentiment in the stock market right now. Next, tariffs were announced.
Just hearing the wording, it sounds strong, right? No exemptions or exceptions, and reciprocal tariff imposition by the US is confirmed. Looking at it this way, it looks strong, but let's look at the details in detail. If you look at it, early this morning on the 13th, he announced that he would impose tailored reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world as early as the beginning of April, taking into account both tariff and non-tariff barriers of trade partners.
However, there have been continuous delays. Right after he took office, he threatened to hit Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs, but he managed to negotiate and postpone it by a month. He threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs aggressively, and now, especially with India, he is negotiating, right? He spoke strongly, but while negotiating behind the scenes, he pushed it back to early April again, right?
It seems like what was said a week, two weeks, and a month ago is being proven true one after another. Even a week or a month ago, I predicted that although Trump speaks strongly, he needs to look after the economy and is a really good deal-maker. I thought that because he speaks strongly but tries to pull things out behind the scenes, the tariffs would likely come a little later than initially promised.
Right? Now that we are seeing that actually happening, the market is thinking, " Yeah, that's right. We know about tariffs. We heard that he would keep imposing tariffs two years ago and a year ago, and we are hearing that he will keep doing it now. So, well, now..." It will happen. As I mentioned yesterday, because it is adapting, it is not collapsing and is forming a sideways box range.
If it hadn't adapted, it would have broken this range and collapsed, right? While it was adapting without collapsing, the announcement yesterday that it would be postponed to April brought a sense of relief to the market, leading to a significant rise. Now, I've been saying repeatedly that if it goes down, it rebounds; if it goes down, it rebounds; if it goes down, it rebounds.
Right? This time too, it rebounded after falling. Whenever it drops below the 20-line, don't get too scared. Just mechanically bet 100,000 won, 100,000 won, 100,000 won, like QQQ, TQQQ, and for the S&P 500, things like SPY, USD, and 6%. Mechanically, some people bet 50,000 won, 50,000 won, 50,000 won, 50,000 won; others bet 100,000 won, 100,000 won; some bet 20, 20, 20; and others bet 30, 30, 30.
It's worth trying, right? Now that it has gone up, stop again. Now stop the scooping. If it goes up, just enjoy it. Next, for buying, you just need to wait for it to come down. Okay, the US is currently adapting to tariffs. As for Korea, well, there were four unique tariff codes, and the second target price was here, on this blue line, right?
We have reached the second level. If we use a band instead of a line for this second level, I think we can see up to about that point. Okay, let's look at it broadly like this and clear everything out now. Okay, there are the moving average lines for 200, 240, and 300, right? The long-term moving average lines that look at the long-term trend over about a year and a half.
Let's take a closer look at the 200, 240, and 300 lines. 5 points. Here, regarding the long-term trend, during the uptrend in the first half of last year, it broke out from below this long-term line, received support, and went straight up, right? Then, it broke through here, recovered, faced resistance, and came straight down after encountering long-term resistance.
After moving away from this long-term line, it broke through following the inverse shoulder pattern and is now rising steadily like this. While doing so, it is approaching the long-term band again. Since it comes to the long-term moving average line for the first time after breaking out, there is a high probability that this spot will act as resistance, right?
The probability of receiving resistance here is... There is a chance it could break through the 70% and 30% levels and go straight up, right? However, statistically, the probability of encountering resistance is higher, so we need to be prepared, right? Okay, roughly speaking, it is a band like this.
Look, it is the Lee Byung-sun concentrated supply zone, right? Since this short-term trend has been broken through and further upside is occurring, this pattern is exactly what it is, right? While there is a possibility of a further surge, above this point, it is entering an overvalued zone. For long-term trading, this is the realm for those who bought early to enjoy; you should enjoy it, but as it goes up, it is a time when you need to take out a little cash at a rate of 1%, 2%, or 3%.
If your current stock ratio is 8:2, you could adjust it to 7.5:3.5, 7:3, 6.5:3.5, or 3.5:6.4. So, starting from this breakout, would n't it be a time to watch it slide little by little? However, if a surge occurs, you can just enjoy it with your remaining volume, right? For long-term swing trading, you need to slide it little by little like this, but for short-term day trading, there are many strong themes moving right now, right?
Technicians keep chasing short-term day traders and enjoying it—absolutely not. You must not back down. We are heading towards a time where you must immediately evade any slight dip and secure cash. Now, the KOSDAQ has also broken out of its trend, and additional gains are emerging from the upper side.
It is now entering the inner band of the first band. The KOSDAQ is also heading toward meeting its long-term valuation, right? If we are lucky, a sharp surge to the second band might occur. However, since it is currently in an overvalued zone, it is too late to invest heavily. This is when you should have entered, and now is the time to enjoy the market.
Today is Friday, and the weekly chart has closed. Finally, the large bearish candlestick on the weekly chart has been broken through. Remember how much people struggled and cursed when it broke through and went down? Right? But as time passed, it eventually broke through. Because it broke through this, the possibility of further gains has increased.
However, it will likely rise in a zigzag pattern again someday, right? Therefore, while we don't know how high it will go this time, there is no need to be too scared when it goes down next; that could be a good buying opportunity, right? The KOSDAQ is also surpassing that long bearish candlestick. Now, looking at the KOSPI from a long-term perspective, we have been watching this trend continuously since last year.
Right, a rebound is currently occurring from this downtrend. Even in the past, it bounced from the bottom to the top. I do n't know if it will go all the way up, but we can set the final target price like this. Right, we can view this as an upward rebound point. No one knows yet how high it will go, but looking at the long term, we can set a guideline like this.
Right? Now, this is the PBR from last December. That was when things were at their toughest, right? I mentioned this while showing you this window back then, didn't I? It's 0.83. Considering that it might drop quickly at 0.8, it's worth buying; it's worth picking up the dip. A characteristic of the Korean stock market is that it forms a bottom around 0.8 and then creates a rebound zone rising quickly to 1.2.
After hitting 0.8 quickly, as of now, January 13, 2025, the stock price is rising to 0.91. Now, if we aim for 1.1 as the target, there is still a lot of room for gains. It doesn't mean it will go straight up to 1.2 right now. It is not that, but rather a story about the future that could take months.
Now, the US stock market is currently adapting, and Nvidia has fully recovered from the deep seepage. Right? Deep seepage is being forgotten at some point. However, since the 60-line is bending downwards, the price needs to quickly break above it to recover and climb back up from where it fell. Right?
Apple came down, formed a gap, and is now rebounding. Membership made a profit here during the first rebound, and I started split buying here for the second time. You should take profits as it goes up. Microsoft is located at a low point. I mentioned that this gap area is important as Google came down; we just need to see if it succeeds in rebounding from here.
Amazon continues to come back down in a straightforward zigzag pattern; we just need to watch for a quick rebound after finding support at the 60-line. Next, the meta is really strong. A long-term pattern of consecutive bullish candles has been formed, and after breaking through the straight upward zigzag, a sharp rise is occurring.
Then, if there is a corrective rebound, it will likely drop straight down below the upward trend. That is the extent of it. It looks like a buying zone, and let's not be too scared of Tesla here. I mentioned that it had dropped too much, right? Since then, there has been a sharp rise for two consecutive days.
However, it wo n't keep going up like this. It is currently in a zone confirming the bottom. If another rise occurs, it could quickly face resistance at the 60-line within the upward trend and fall again, right? If it goes down again, that could be a time to buy. The volatility when it hits the bottom could be an opportunity to pick up the dip.
Bitcoin continues to hold its position. Now, the US market is closed for the next Monday after today's close. Therefore, I don't think there is any need to trade too aggressively today. You 've worked hard this week. Subscribing and liking are free, and I would appreciate it if you left a comment.
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