저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 하락 시 무조건 매도보다 투자가능자산 규모에 따라 대응이 달라진다는 주장. 자산이 소득 수준 이하라면 매도보다 소득 증대(연봉 협상, 이직, 기술 습득)에 집중하라고 조언. 자산이 소득의 수배 이상이면 거시경제 사이클(연준 긴축, 인플레이션, 경기침체 우려)에 따라 일시적 현금화 후 저점 재진입을 고려할 수 있다고 설명. 시장은 현재 최선의 시나리오를 반영 중이며 연준이 더 매파적으로 가면 변동성이 클 것이라고 경고. 다만 장기투자와 시장 타이밍 실패 후 복귀 실패의 위험도 강조.
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the stock market was green today and it begs the question should you sell or should you huddle in this video i'm going to provide you a formula for whether or not you should buy huddle or sell let's get right into it after i mention this video is brought to you by life insurance that you can get in as little as five minutes by going to mckevin.com life so that way if somebody shoots you with a dragon crossbow at least your family's got some life insurance proceeds it's really easy to sign up for and you can apple pay or android pay for it via the link down below go to med kevin.com life and stay away from those dragon crossbows at least the bad end the business end of them all right folks let's now talk about whether or not you should sell so in my opinion you should always buy and dollar cost average and especially buy when there is pain and blood on the streets when stocks are going down bye bye bye bye bye why because you should be focused on building the investable portfolio that you have with quantity of shares because generally in 5 10 15 30 years talked to me in 30 years it does not make sense to try to always spend your day timing the market day in day out swing trading day trading or even a long term macroeconomic cycle timing but in this video i'm going to talk to you about the two differences because one of these scenarios is appropriate for one type of investor and another scenario is appropriate for another type of investor so let's break this up with a formula first here's what you should do right now in my opinion and this is not financial advice you should write down what is your total net worth of investable and tradable assets so you're probably going to want to add up your stocks your crypto and rental real estate or any kind of investments that are not locked away that you could actually trade and consider investable assets add those things up do not add things in here that are going to be very difficult to sell maybe like trading cards collectibles cars things that are difficult for you to sell or that you definitely want to keep don't even bother with those now add up that figure again stocks real estate tradable assets add that figure up now take your total annual income subtract taxes out of it so let's say your income is sixty thousand dollars a year and after taxes you're making uh let's go with fifty thousand or forty five thousand dollars a year somewhere around there if your tradable and investable portfolio is less than forty five thousand dollars per year in my opinion there should be a very very clear red line and you should probably just not financial advice but you should probably just buy huddle don't worry about it instead you should focus on taking advantage of something that you could take advantage of today and you generally cannot take advantage of and that is asking for a raise asking for more money the labor market is the tightest it has ever been not only is the labor market extremely tight but if you have skills which a lot of other people do not have skills then you could easily easily demand more pay because the last thing people want to do is hire more employees right now businesses don't have the money to train new employees uh you have a lot of leverage to negotiate your salary in this kind of market you're going to lose that leverage if we go into a recession so if you're not already planning to ask for more money or make more money i think you're making a mistake now if you can't make more money at your current job then you should probably consider switching jobs so a ask for more money if you're actually providing value to your business b switch jobs and make more money or c get the skills that you need to make more money i don't care if that means getting certifications getting a license in something learning or studying some kind of skill or whatever it could complement your business as well i mean here's just an example if you are a robo or i shouldn't say if you are a forklift driver what are you going to do if your job gets replaced by a robot in the future a robo forklift well hopefully you're taking the time now to study robotic engineering so that way you can become a forklift robotic engineer so you're hedging your job with another skill set and even if we didn't go into a recession or even if robo uh forklifts never came you could take that and translate that to potentially getting an engineering job and making a lot more money because there's really i mean the sky is the limit in engineering whereas there is a limit in how much you could actually foreseeably get paid uh in in in driving a forklift so keep these things in mind that you want to hedge your line of work one of the things that i did as a real estate agent five years ago was i said oh my gosh red fence coming in and potentially taking over and if they they take all of my clients uh which which didn't end up becoming a reality but that was always a concern of mine is oh my gosh what if they come in and then they take over right what can i do to to hedge myself and i thought oh i know i'll just buy redfin stock because if they take over my business the odds are their company's going to the moon so that was a style of hedging so what what have we decided here well number one the rule is if your investable base is and tradable base is less than what your income is focus on increasing your income ask for the raise get a different job learn to provide more value by getting a skill certification or license or hedging yourself in your industry so that way you are an expert in your industry and you are making as much freaking money as you can in your industry only you have the opportunity to do that and if you could increase the top of the funnel you're gonna have a much bigger bottom of the funnel it's that simple now i don't want to just say oh you want more money go make more money investing is nice especially over the long run in 10 20 30 years is anybody going to care that tesla's 900 instead of twelve hundred dollars is anybody gonna care that oh maybe tesla went down to six hundred dollars and it went back to a thousand dollars no nobody's gonna care and it doesn't freaking matter so what are you gonna do i highly recommend you focus on your top line your money your dollar hollas okay very very very important now when does it make sense to actually sell well we know in according to my opinion on financial advice it does not make sense to sell when your investable base is less than your income after taxes now there's going to be a little bit of a gray area between this and it's really up to you to determine where this line comes up but there does come a point where your investable base is actually multiple times the size of your income for example let's say your household income is 200 000 but you have an investable base of a million dollars that could be a combination of stocks or real estate or whatever but it's actual net worth it's a million dollars it's like man our investable base is five times our income before taxes let alone after taxes might be as much as six times well there are situations where it might make sense to get out of the market not to day trade it not to try to time little you know meetings or uh cpi reports or this that or whatever right time in the market beats timing the market we know that uh but there are opportunities to time a macro economic cycle as long as you're not out of the market generally for more than 6 to 12 months because see here's a downside before i tell you potentially what i'm doing or how to do this there is a downside risk of you turning into some of those people from 2012 or 13 who are like that's it we're going into a double dip recession and guess what happened the double dip recession never came and prices went up and then they got sad and thought well prices are up now i'll just wait for them to come down and then they wait 10 years and they never invest that is a big mistake that is the most fatal mistake you could ever make is thinking you're timing the macroeconomic cycle failing and then not accepting that failure and getting back in the market so this is where we've got to talk about that macroeconomic cycle i made a very detailed video about the psychology of market cycles i highly recommend you watch that because i'm not going to go through all of it in here i'm going to give you a quick synopsis the market cycle is very simple whether it's the real estate cycle or the business cycle doesn't matter cycle markets are cyclical prices go up we have expansionary support we have fiscal support from congress we have monetary support from our central bank and assets grow in value well assets grow in value like a balloon not necessarily a bubble we're not necessarily over inflated but we inflate up as we inflate up more people get better jobs pay goes up the workers ability to negotiate goes up and everybody feels richer and when everybody feels richer everybody likes to go spend money like crazy and so this is where there are a lot of folks who say things like but kevin how could we possibly go into a recession when there's such little unemployment or when people are spending money like crazy look how good the economy is well what do you think comes right before a recession a really good economy usually right so the macroeconomic cycle is such that everybody tends to feel very very rich at the top of the market in 2006 and even the beginning of 2007 before the market really started showing any kind of jitters folks were buying new boats new rvs new clothing people going on vacations people buying jets people are going nuts spending money like there's no tomorrow like the money's never going to end and this in my opinion is very intoxicating because it's fun to spend money businesses like it they they raise prices like they're doing now they create inflation because they can and people are willing to pay it because they have more savings they have more income they can pay pay pay so what do they do they take on debt they use their savings they use their higher pay and they spend spend spend spend spend this is why we are seeing higher levels of margin than we've ever seen in the history of america before in the stock market because short of the last really seven eight weeks here the stock market has done really well borrowing to invest in the stock market has been a great bet buying the dip has been a phenomenal bet but not when the macroeconomic cycle changes and this is where in the event we start seeing fiscal stimulus that stops which we've already seen congress can't seem to get any stimulus done because of fears of inflation so fears of inflation are making congress not our friend on top of that fears of inflation have now made central banks not our friend anymore so now we have these two very large headwinds actually three we have fiscal headwinds the end of stimulus we have monetary headwinds the central bank saying they're going to tighten policy and we have inflationary pressures that even though folks say oh but kevin the inflationary pressures will go away once supply chains resolve themselves i think folks forget that just because supply chains get better does not mean prices are coming down it just means businesses for at least the first probably six to 12 months are gonna be making a lot more money so supply chains could actually be fixed tomorrow and we can still see inflation for the next six to 12 months that's because businesses are able to raise prices because why people are paying them and if people are paying higher prices without businesses losing customers what does that mean that means businesses make more money and they can report more profits for shareholders and hopefully stocks go up which is kind of what we saw over the last couple days because we had phenomenal earnings out of uh for example amazon and snapchat and pinterest okay good so the economy's booming unemployment is very very low very very characteristic of the top of a macroeconomic cycle but then again we've had low employment before we we had low unemployment going into 2020 right we had a very strong economy going into 2020 and we had a federal reserve that you know wasn't like super accommodative we didn't have stimulus in 2019 this is true this is something to consider but what did we also not have in 2019 seven percent inflation potentially now the next survey is suggesting we might see seven point three percent inflation pmis are saying prices paid or going through the roof these are purchasing uh in indices or surveys uh tracking prices wages are going up everything that we look at in terms of inflationary data suggests prices are going up now there's a limit to inflation expectations and a lot of folks wonder but kevin everything's priced into the market right maybe but here's what's not priced into the market inflation not going down as quickly as we think the markets right now are pricing in four to five interest rate hikes in 2022 but unfortunately if the federal reserve comes out in march or in their may or even in their their june meeting and suggests wow we are not capable of getting inflation down we are going to have to get substantially more aggressive and double our rate hikes that sort of fear and that sort of posturing by the federal reserve and unfriendliness so to speak is not priced into markets and there is a risk that when the federal reserve raises rates substantially that prices of of goods can stay elevated while all of a sudden consumers stop spending if consumers stop spending there is a risk that we will have lower sales in this year in certain quarters compared to last year negative gdp comps mean recession two quarters in a row you're in recession uh and in 2021 was a big spend year so if we don't spend more than 2021 we will have negative gdp at certain quarters this month or this year which is a problem and unfortunately if inflation remains stubbornly high even if supply chains start bettering themselves then unfortunately the federal reserve will be forced to become more aggressive increasing not only bond yields bonds will sell off bond yields will go up but also increasing the risk of the federal reserve pushing us into a recession now if you believe that the federal reserve has to become more aggressive and if your portfolio your investable and tradable portfolio is multiples of what your actual annual income is or it's somewhere between that that line of being below and being multiples of to the point where you feel comfortable sometimes it makes sense to wait until macroeconomic cycles provide evidence to you that we are either going to continue on a bull run or we are going into a bear market recession this i believe is only opportune when your investable portfolio is substantial enough i would guess at least three four maybe five hundred thousand dollars to where you could actually stand to do something if the market fell substantially now the market falling substantially under recession fears could mean stocks going down to levels that could potentially be hopefully not lower than what we saw in march of 2020 why because the federal reserve stopped the bleeding in march of 2020.
the federal reserve swooped in and said hey we're going to bail everything out and that's when the market bottomed on march 23rd you could perfectly line it up with the fed just like the fed bailed us out and ended the market created a bottom of floor for the market in 1987 in 2003 at the bottom of the dot com bubble in 2009 in february at the bottom of the 2008 recession and of course at the end of 2018 it's always the federal reserve that marks the bottom when they finally relax their aggressive and hawkish stance and if your portfolio is large enough to actually make a difference in your life where if you stepped out of the macroeconomic cycle and got back on on a lower portion you don't have to be perfect you don't have to time tippy top to bottom bottom but if you could get off on the top half and get back on in the bottom half if factors continue to reiterate that thesis you could probably make substantial bets you could probably find real estate substantially cheaper you could probably find stocks substantially cheaper than anything that we are seeing today now i know that prices have already come down a lot on some stocks some stocks are down 50 to 90 percent and folks argue that now these stocks are cheap possibly but nothing's going to look cheap if we go into a recession yeah stocks have gotten cheaper but that doesn't mean they're cheap and so this is where i do recommend individuals express some prudence in their portfolio now i want to make this crystal clear i do not want to see a recession because if we see a recession we are going to see pay go down for a lot of people maybe you negotiated higher pay but then you get laid off risk factor right maybe i can't monetize youtube videos anymore because youtube decides you know what we're turning off advertising because we can't pay anymore because we have no advertisers it's entirely possible and so you have to prepare that in a recession that is like one of the worst things that you could ask for next to of course a depression which we'll talk about in just a moment but potentially preparing uh for for something like that is always prudent that doesn't mean it's going to happen and that doesn't mean you want a confirmation bias that says every day oh the market better be read otherwise you're wrong that's not how macroeconomic cycles work so if you are deciding okay i'm gonna sit on the sidelines here until we get a more accommodated fed until i start seeing evidence that inflation has played itself out until i see evidence that supply chain's loosening which is barely happening but until you see evidence that supply chains loosening is actually translating to prices going down then maybe it makes sense to be a little bit more cash heavy in your portfolio now than ever before in my opinion that does not make you a paper hand in a weenie baby although that is very easy for individuals to say and it's a uh it's very easy to say oh somebody's a flip-flopper one day you said by the next day you said sell whatever it's kind of like the titanic is one day driving one way and the next minute they're like oh crap we hit an iceberg we're sinking yeah things change and if you want to leave mean comments and stick your head in the sand that's that's totally fine but then you're probably not even watching this far along in a video so this is where you have to remember that macroeconomic cycles are natural they're normal macroeconomic cycles especially falls and cycles remove risk speculation debt and zombie companies from markets they actually do weeding they clean out the bad macroeconomic cycles rotating to the downside are a good thing what is not a good thing is a depression and i can tell you if we end up seeing hyperinflation we could potentially see the end of the dollar we could see the collapse of the dollar as a monetary system if the federal reserve does not respond to inflation so this is why i think it's laughable when individuals say oh the fed's not going to raise rates because that's going to increase the interest rate the united states has to pay okay well first of all not all of the bonds the federal reserve has to or the government has to make payments on uh you know have their rates go up we have bonds expiring at many different uh points along the curve two years five years 10 years 30 years right it doesn't all float up and down right away we're paying substantially less in interest as a percentage of our gdp than we paid in the 90s we could probably double the interest we're paying we'd still be at a 90's level and with how honestly strong the economy is right now it really doesn't matter the united states government could just sell bonds and uh and raise money to to pay these higher uh interest charges that's that's not an argument it's the wrong argument uh neither is the argument that uh the federal reserve doesn't want to raise rates because they don't want to cause a recession during uh an election year okay well first of all have you heard of 2008 okay that was a recession during an election year uh and and second of all if if the argument is oh but you know maybe they didn't choose to do it in 2008 or whatever the federal reserve has nothing to do with politics technically we know behind the scenes they they collude together all the time probably we expect that but anyway uh what's most important to the federal reserve is preserving the dollar because if we don't respond to inflation the dollar could lose its standing in the world we already have russia making deals with china to trade oil in euros which is a big slap in the face to the united states dollar as the petrodollar the collapse of the dollar could potentially be the worst thing that would happen well probably would be the worst thing that would happen sort of like war to the united states and so the federal reserve will act aggressively to respond to a falling dollar or a weakening dollar in some form the full faith and credit in the united states dollar must be maintained at all costs and this means if the federal reserve has to push us into a minor recession which i think if if we had a recession to be relatively minor if they have to push us into a minor recession to finally get inflation down then that's what they'll do but at least it'll prevent a hyperinflation paul volcker style depression in the future by acting sooner rather than later and so this is where it would make sense for the federal reserve to raise rates substantially and sooner to do whatever they need to do to prevent inflation and inflation unfortunately is already here and even if they raise rates people have so much money businesses have so much money it's possible the economy won't actually contract or or reduce inflation for quite a while at least until a supply chains clean up then b the six to 12 month lag goes by and rates go up and businesses and consumers actually need to borrow money and honestly it could be we are fighting higher levels inflation for the next two years and if we had a minor recession between now and then there could be an opportunity if you're timing the larger macro economic cycle to get out now and to get back in at a lower point in the future now i believe this only makes sense for those with larger portfolios just to give you an example there are a lot of things that i could do first of all let's say in six to 12 months i'm wrong and you know what we didn't have a macroeconomic transition inflation came down as soon as i start seeing inflation come down or the fed become more accommodative i'm back in this market that might be in a month that could be in three months that could be in six months i could be in 12 months once those conditions line up that's when i'm back in the market obviously i'll send an alert to everybody in the courses link down below and i'll probably make youtube videos on this as well once i have all my thoughts put together but that's what i'm looking for to get back in the market so that way if i'm wrong i'm back in uh if i'm right and we do go through a macroeconomic transition then i'm also waiting for those factors to u-turn it's just prices around me will be getting a lot cheaper everybody keeps talking to me about how oh but kevin if you're sitting in cash the inflation is going to eat your cash away that's wrong inflation does not eat your cash away inflation only eats your cash away if you're spending it on stuff where the prices are going up if i'm putting cash aside to buy stocks and real estate in the event the market follows i'm actually increasing my purchasing power by being in cash as the market falls rather than decreasing my purchasing power which is actually deflation not inflation inflation is bad if if a high proportion of your spending is on things like natural gas or gasoline for your car or food or rent that's when inflation is bad that's when your cash is trash but if you're an investor with a larger portfolio that's multiples the size of your income then you're probably best off considering do you want to play this macro economic cycle i think there's still time i don't know that we are going to see inflation go down anytime soon and the market is pricing in the best case scenario right now everybody keeps telling me oh kevin the market's pricing in uh all of this uh this inflation going away and everything's going to be fine i'll show you exactly what the market is pricing in and it's kind of sad because it's not good uh here we go we got a picture it's a chart and it shows you uh what the market is pricing in in terms of financial conditions and what you're looking for is the white line is going to tell you how much pain or potential fed hike pain is being priced in so let's go ahead and pull this up right here there we go i'll go over here in the corner take a look at this over here if we just zoom in right here to that white line you can see when we have a lot of pain like we did at the beginning of 2020 the white line goes up look how much pain right now is being priced in compared to 20 20.
in 2020 we had the fed on our side today the fed is not our friend the fed is doing the opposite of us so shout out to bloomberg uh for for this uh particular article but folks the best case scenario right now is being priced in if the federal reserve has to turn more hawkish the markets are not going to be very happy we've seen an endless amount of volatility so far and i just expressed caution to everybody but i want to make it very very clear that i believe if your portfolio is of smaller size it does not make sense to try to macro economic time this cycle if your portfolio is larger i think there could potentially be opportunities but you can't put the blinders on and sit out of the market for more than six to 12 months because you'll get left behind you have to be ready and able to pick up on signals in the market that you are either correct or that you are wrong and you have to be willing to change your strategy that's very very important uh in the event that uh i'm wrong for example i also have opportunities and so this is something else you should look at for your portfolio if i sell stocks and now i have capital gains that i have to pay which i have to pay maybe it makes sense for me to take that money and buy a big multi-family building cost segregate it and offset some of my gains in stocks with a cost segregation on on a rental property on a big building maybe that makes sense talk to your cpa if something like that makes sense for you so there are a lot of things that you can do if your portfolio is is multitudes the size of your income if the if your portfolio is smaller it probably doesn't make sense you should focus more on your income then you should focus on your portfolio and so hopefully this provides a little bit more insight i always want to make sure that i'm most transparent with everybody on this channel and i want to make it critically clear that everybody in the world knew within 30 hours of me selling stocks that i sold stocks uh there there is no there's no hiding uh i'm always extremely clear if i'm short the market if i'm selling what i'm doing the only thing i'm short on is lucid there's a lot of misinformation i've never been margin called right i always want to be extremely transparent with you and i believe that's why you watch my channel so that way if i see changes in the market you hear what my perspective is on those changes anyway hopefully this helps you out
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