저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
부동산·경기·연준 사이클을 설명하며 현재 연준 긴축과 인플레이션 악화를 위험 신호로 보고, 현금 확보 후 바닥에서 매수하라는 일반론을 제시. 2022년 2월 촬영 기준으로 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 드묾. 연준의 완화 전환이 바닥 신호라는 원칙 설명이 주요 내용.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here i was hoping i would not see the day that i had to make this video for course members for at least 10 years unfortunately the time may be now it is once again time to talk about the macro economic cycle the business cycle the real estate cycle and folks this is how we are going to connect the psychology of money the psychology of buying the dip the broken cell button to macro economic cycles so that way you graduate to the next level of understanding personal finance and building your wealth it is so critical to understand market cycles and this video is not designed to encourage you to change your strategies to buy the dip or to sell this video is designed to show you how to prepare for changing market cycles and to provide a reason for the confusion that can happen at different points in the cycle but first i want you to know that the very first thing that i did when i became a real estate agent during the last crash was i created a graphic for this right here this is my graphic the real estate cycle and while looking back there's so much more detail i could throw in this there's so much more i could do i want to pay homage to the fact that when i entered in the bottom of the market dealing with the disasters of short sales and foreclosures and seeing the pain of excess debt which is a problem that we have in our country right now i created this and i actually printed it out uh and i had a picture frame with the real estate cycle this on it on uh on a canvas so it looked like a piece of art and i would bring it with me when i was talking to buyers or sellers and i would explain to them where i believed we were in the market cycle and why i would use this as a tool for talking about the fears of the double dip recession uh which or the shadow inventory of foreclosures that were coming up the same thing that i do on youtube now or in the programs is the same thing that i used to do in the coffee shop with clients which is providing facts data and statistics to back up my points rather than just emotions which we have to talk about emotions emotions are very very important so let me give a quick explanation of this this is an oversimplified explanation of the real estate cycle essentially the real estate cycle back in 2010 2011 2009 uh was was clearly in in this area where we had experienced declining price rent and a new construction we clearly had had noticed this and what i would do on a daily basis is i would track inventory numbers and what was fascinating was housing inventory in the city that i live in went from about 450 homes on the market which is a massive amount normal market by the way has about 200 homes on the market we went from about 450 homes on the market where somebody would come to me and say hey i'm looking for a three bedroom two bath and i'm this particular part of town and all of a sudden i'm like okay here's your list of 20 of them you know we should probably narrow the list down to the top five that look good based on the pictures we don't have to go to 20 of them get overwhelmed right it was crazy it was really really crazy times because there was so much and people were always wondering like oh kevin i'm worried what if prices go down more it's like well look at where we are in the real estate cycle according to the real estate cycle we pretty much are at the bottom especially since what happened in 2010 actually more towards 2011 what started happening we started seeing that housing inventory number towards the end of 2011 beginning in 2012 start rotating down fast we went from 450 homes to the market to 300 homes on the market boom like that we actually ended up at the beginning of 2013 with just 80 homes on the market which was insane we had this crazy crazy uh shift in the market but we could watch this happen week after week after week for about a year and a half because real estate market moves a little slower and so we were clearly in the absorption of excess supply phase where it's like oh there's so much supply and all of a sudden that's dwindling and so when march and april of 2013 came around we actually ended up seeing prices jump 20 in the matter of two months but we saw that coming for a year and a half because of this absorption of excess supply right okay good so supply started getting absorbed we got into a tighter market uh it became a lot easier to rent properties out and then prices started skyrocketing uh they they have increased very well over the past uh probably well i would say from 2011 to about 2019 prices uh increased quite normally and substantially but we've gone into this this more almost exponential phase let me use a little bit of a better graphic than using uh just a circle here we've kind of done a little bit of this with pricing where we hit our bottom here in 2011 started rotating up this right here is where you saw housing inventory go from about that uh 450 number to uh you know 200 well 300 200 right and then all the way down to 80.
so we saw this it got so low we got to this point where folks were like oh my gosh how am i going to make money as a real estate agent there's nothing to sell and what happened prices jumped substantially about 20 and then we continued on real estate market relatively did this but now since the pandemic we've really done this uh and going back to the real estate cycle usually when you get to this sort of euphoric stage this this excessive runaway stage you tend to increase new construction as much as possible to to produce more homes for people where they want to live because the prices are so high the margins are so good this is why lennar and kb homes are killing it and they're producing more properties or you know building and planning new properties like crazy to bring these to the market the issue then becomes twofold what happens towards the top of the real estate market well as the real estate market starts potentially peaking interest rates tend to go up to to quell excessive growth and when rates go up especially mortgage rates we know that real estate prices can come down uh about 10x the interest rate increase so for example if our market is expanding at let's say ten percent per year and interest rates go up point six percent like they just did then uh we would see a negative six percent headwind to real estate prices but a positive ten percent momentum movement right uh of prices going up and so now we're net four percent growth but that can also end negative if all of a sudden we're like oh prices aren't going up that much oh it's getting a little it's getting a little expensive to go shopping again oh the stock market's getting a little funky uh oh oh right and all of a sudden euphoria can very quickly turn into over supply and all it takes is a handful of investors who own a lot of properties to start flooding the market and it can happen very very quickly with properties to start quickly dampening demand for housing and all that has to do with fear psychology so we've got to talk about that see fear psychology applies to the stock market as well generally what we want to do is buy the dip but we have to overlay cycles if we look at the cycle the best times obviously to buy the dip and i told my clients this a lot although i would always draw a line here i'm like you know if you're gonna if you're gonna try to time the market you don't need to be perfect you don't need to be right down here in the middle but ideally try to buy the bottom half and usually the bottom half is is uh we we know when the bottom half is happening because we start seeing indicators decline at a less rapid pace where we start rotating i think when folks hear oh my gosh someone's trying to time the macro economy the thought is you're perfectly trying to get out at the tippy top and perfectly trying to get out of the bottom that's next impossible right that's not going to happen just like trying to predict what earnings are going to do next to impossible just like trying to predict whether bitcoin is going to be at 50 000 next week or it's going to be a 20 000 next week who freaking knows nobody knows on that short term you could use technical analysis to help guide you but we all know you could have breaks there's breakups or breakdowns right technicals could falter so we we don't no we don't have a crystal ball but we do know macroeconomic cycles and we know that things change but let's understand the psychology of what happens when things change and this is critical this is absolutely critical and we're also going to talk about whether whether you should actually do anything okay hold on uh we're going to google this thing it's called the cell excel image for for the stock market and this this is quite quite powerful this is a pretty popular cartoon and uh here it is so the psychology of markets is that when things are really doing well everybody's buying everybody's happy and when we get our first dips you know we have little corrections in the market like let me speak a little bit towards towards example here we have uh the pre-election dip we have the february and may dip of 2021 the election dip of 2020 right those dips these are things that we can buy the dip on and the reason we can buy the dip on this is because of the federal reserve blowing wind at our back and supporting us we have an accommodative congress we have an accommodative fed and there are no massive red flags that indicate we're at the top of a cycle now we'll talk more about being at potentially at the top of the cycle but let's quickly understand psychology and and why do we feel emotional when when things turn right where does that emotion come from so this this cartoon essentially starts out with hey i've got a stock here that could really excel and somebody hears excel oh i wonder what could excel you know the curiosity when somebody says something new it creates sometimes shock or curiosity like huh what they're doing what huh that's that's kind of this face here which in my opinion uh it would be an example of let's say somebody who is regularly a long term sort of buy and hodler and then somebody sells that that creates a little bit of what and so you get more folks paying attention excel what oh did i hear cell wait what uh what's going on over here it's hell uh and then this is where where first you get anger uh you get confusion and anger of of folks wait wait no this is this is the opposite and anytime you're in a cycle and a cycle changes the macroeconomic cycle switches or changes and shifts or in a different position in it emotions flare because it's different look it is easy i'll tell you it is easy easy easy in 2011 to see why everybody didn't buy the dip you know why everybody didn't buy the dip in 2011 on real estate because everybody thought real estate sucked that's when you know you're getting closer to the bottom of a macro economic cycle when everybody is telling you oh you're in real estate that sucks man that's a tough market i would go to trader joe's the people at trader joe's like real estate match oh tough market man now i go to trader joe's you know what they tell me dude man bought a house couple years ago up 200 grand man i don't really have to work here anymore you see what i'm saying okay those are indicators of changes in where we are in the cycle i don't know that filming this here on january 28th my 30th birthday that we are with certainty at the top of an economic cycle but we have red flags that indicate we might be due for the turn in the cycle no guarantees we could always have manipulation in the market but if we are at the top of a macroeconomic cycle the pain could be outsized and last for a very long time we're going to talk about time rt of risk benefit analysis as well but first let's go back to to psychology here so once when the first people start selling you know when people are selling when everybody's buying they're just an idiot bear right when when somebody who's usually a bull turns to a bear and you have an inflection point there's a lot of emotion not only that it comes from individuals watching that person or paying attention to somebody but there's also a lot of emotion that that can come within that person like for example if uh if if you change directions because you start seeing massive five-year two-year macroeconomic changes and you're concerned about a potential macroeconomic shift then that's that's a point where you're it's almost like you have to reprogram all of what you've been doing if you're during the expansion cycle let's let's go back to that real estate cycle during that real estate expansion cycle you're like your mentality is okay buy the dip on everything every fixer-upper that comes up i'm a buy no second thought and you program yourself to being on this side of the cycle when you're on this side of the cycle the programming is it's automatic it's by the dip don't worry long-term investing rules uh we we uh you know no matter what it's it's gonna end up correcting uh back to the upside it'll be fine selloffs are normal blah blah blah blah right you are programmed to buy when you are on this side uh especially hopefully when you're on the bottom half because you're in an expansionary cycle when you get to a peak or potential peak or you believe and this is the tough part you believe you're ready peak you have to reprogram all of that you go from hey let's get the private jet let's go spend the money in cabo let's buy everything by the dip man bed's always here first that changes to uh-oh we got to start paying attention to these red flags because they're indicative of a potential top no guarantees but they could be indicative of a potential macro top not a short term top not like ah things are selling off a little bit because of the election coming up or whatever right some data's bad but don't worry those red flags aren't that bad right whatever like we get through that over here it's not like real estate was straight up either i know i drew it kind of straight up but it had vacillations you know whatever wasn't a big deal the bigger issue is when you get confounding macro red flags we're going to talk about those again in just a second then why again do we have emotion here we have emotion at the peak because now when you're at a potential peak everything changes the first thing that changes is you have to start programming into your own mind okay look i'm a big fan of guns and butter i'm a big fan of saving money but now i gotta ramp it up now we're gonna save even more now we're going to cut from our discretionary spending even more now we're going to double down and work harder and build more cash and build more wealth as soon as we can just in case we do go into an extended bear market see folks miss this and and this is what's so so critical okay people like to say oh well i'm a long run investor i'm just investing for the long term look at the the s p 500 over the long term it's basically like this all the little gyrations are this that's fine that's totally true but a problem that we run into when we look at a line like this so we end up extending a massive you know 80-year line like this and forgetting that missing one year worst case in a worst case scenario if you missed one year and this was the normal line let's say you missed the year right here maybe your returns from having been the same path might be slightly under that right if you sat out for example a year or six months like how much is the nasdaq or the s p 500 really going to go to all-time new highs in 2022 who knows it could be a minus one percent year it could be a plus five percent year okay is is that five percent worth the risk and this is something you'd have to evaluate yourself right but anyway what what folks generally miss is not only evaluating your risk tolerance in the event that we are at the top of a cycle uh but the the psychological pain of changing so again we are in when we're in this part of the cycle by the dip by the by the everything's good wind is at our back we're in this part of the cycle we everything we do changes we become again hoarders by the dippers cash orders okay now before we keep going we've we've got to address this right here take a look at this right if you invested in the s p 500 right here in 1973 i kid you not it would have taken 20 years for you to break even if you would have invested right here during the dot-com bubble and maybe you even started buying the early dip it would take you about 14 years to break even so yeah people like to draw these average charts where they just draw a line and they say oh long run investing long run investing great great great always good yes for the vast majority of folks that is the easiest thing to do but macroeconomic cycles do exist and you've got to ask yourself if you think you are at a potential top in an economic cycle is it worth just hodling maybe and not buying the dip because the first dip could just be the beginning of the dips right look look at the relative strength index hop on over to the s p 500 people use this technical indicator wrong all the time and it drives me nuts you go over to the s p 500 look at the march of 2020 dip over here relative strength index right here uh any anything under this line means we're oversold anything above the yellow line here means we're overbought and so folks like to say oh yeah yeah buy when the uh when the rsi is below 30 that's a sign that we're oversold and right now here january 28th we're in the oversold territory the s p 500 is down like what eight percent or whatever right well look at this folks the s p was down eight percent ish eight to ten percent right here and we were oversold according to the relative strength index the downside is it sold off another 30 in the month thereafter and the only reason this is the scary part the only reason and this is also going to go back full circle to the red flags of our economic cycle the only reason the market bottomed out was here on march 23rd the federal reserve bailed us out the federal reserve said they will bail us out now i wanna i wanna draw this on a real estate cycle with you but first i gotta give you some examples here so you can believe this look at this stock market crashed in 1987 you might have heard of that famous monday stock market crashed in 2000 and i'm gonna write the bottoms here okay uh well no i'm not gonna write the problem so stock market crash in two thousand uh stock market crashed in 2008.
stock market crashed briefly briefly in 2018 stock market crashed in 2020. these are your stock market crashes of the last what is that 35 years okay the stock market bottomed in 87 because the federal reserve came out and said hey we'll bail you out don't worry this was the first time the fed did that the usually it was congress that would sort of have to bail markets out this was really the first time in bubble massive euphoria you know that excel phase uh or or i should say rather that by by phase uh was was quite frantic uh in the cartoon here which i don't even think we got to that part of the cartoon yet right but uh see how excel becomes i can't take this madness anymore i'm leaving goodbye goodbye bye bye bye bye right this would be your confusion part of the market again your bottom and then bye-bye and then you get that euphoria again right which turns into a cell but anyway uh jump in over here you get the euphoria of the dot-com bubble geez this is ridiculous the market bottoms in q1 of 2003 why did it bottom out because the fed came in with massive interest rate reductions so fed bailout and discussions of continued support whatever because there's pain interest rates started going up again after two three years because things started getting excessive again in 2005 and six but anyway fed bailout 2008 market crashed one day at bottom it bottomed in exactly february of 2009 why because even though in 2008 congress authorized 700 billion dollars of spending it wasn't until february of 2009 that the federal reserve authorized one trillion dollars of bailout money and that's when the market bottom federal reserve on december 19th of 2018 said hey you know what we're not going to do three rate hikes next year instead we're going to do two that was a u-turn in the federal reserve's tenancies and that led the market to go up within within a week it started going up it didn't go up quickly it it slowly bottomed and slowly started going back up important to keep in mind in 2020 we bottomed out on march 23rd why did we bottom out because the federal reserve said we will print an unlimited amount of money unlimited qe right so now what i want you to ask yourself is if all of these years here are economic cycles where are we in the federal reserve economic cycle right now let me ask you that so let's draw instead of the real estate cycle or the business cycle let's draw the federal reserve cycle this is the federal reserve cycle market crashes market turns around folks when does the market turn around at the bottom the market turns around at the bottom when the fed bails us out that's when the market turns around at the bottom this is when we start ticking back up slowly and the federal reserve continues to accommodate the markets this is an emotional spot because it's like oh my gosh we're getting bailed out it's confusing it's like wait does this mean bye no no it's a false bottom it's a double dip recession oh no and you get people angry that other people are buying because it's like no it's a fake out that emotion is really high at turning points the most emotional times in investing are right there that's when everybody's freaking out and mad at everybody else it's also when mistakes are made in terms of uh you know not not coming across potentially as crystal clear because like when we're when we're on this turning point it it can happen so quickly that we're like um okay wow this was a really quick change we got to adapt to this in a business cycle time to start cutting back time to start saving money you know that's a quick change on families and people can get mad and people getting upset it's normal though at these periods within a cycle and so what what is the top well historically it's when the fed tightens or begins to tighten uh however this has to be coupled with and this is this is crystal clear this is like where i shouldn't say crystal because this is critical fed titans in exuberant market see the federal reserve talked about tightening in 2013 and started tightening in 2016.
the market didn't crash why did the market not crash because everything was pretty chill we were clearly uh at more of this phase of the cycle you know 2013 uh 2016 was really over here how did we know we were at these levels well because we didn't have massive glaring red flags that would indicate we're in an exuberant market and uh the federal reserve needs to tighten the federal reserve was not saying in 2013 or 2016 that oh valuations are excessively high you know what they were saying we need to keep making sure we accommodate the economy because we want this expansion to be broad-based and help people of different races and sexes and make sure that everybody can enjoy this economic recovery which we're finally starting to see so the federal reserve's tone was hey we we still got to accommodate yeah we're going to raise rates a little bit but we still gotta accommodate that's why the market actually did well during those rate cycles right because the economy was not overly hot what is the federal reserve telling us right now they are they're so clear about this i don't understand why people don't understand this they're telling us a few things number one they're telling us they don't care about the stock market that what they care about is inflation and maximum employment so in other words if prices go down that's not our problem that's not the fed's problem is what they're saying they're also telling us that what you have is a situation of massive inflation with excessive valuations they believe that excessive valuations lead to more risk in the economy why because excessive valuations ultimately mean that risk goes up people take on more debt debt becomes more burdensome if debt becomes more burdensome then the risk of bankruptcy goes up and if that spreads throughout the entire economy then it's entirely possible that the market could uh not just correct but crash and lead to the loss of faith in the united states dollar and that is can try to preserve is the full faith and credit of the united states so no they don't care about the stock market to the extent that it doesn't affect uh jobs negatively and quite frankly so what if the market corrects there's still plenty of time right now where people are like oh no there's plenty of hiring going on it doesn't really matter s p's down 10 or whatever right it doesn't matter so the fed titan's in exuberant markets right here january 20th 2020 two we have the federal reserve telling us valuations are excessive not only are valuations excessive but we don't care about the stock market we care about getting inflation down and see that's the big red flag that we have right now is inflation was thought to get better in 2022 and the big u-turn and it i tell you it comes fast this is where people like oh my gosh how do you change your mind so quickly oh it's flip flop this folks when we got hit in the face with the minutes of the december meeting from the federal reserve and we combined that with the latest data on inflation and earnings calls that inflation was getting worse not better and inflation was broadening we know we have a massive red flag and so the question is when we have a massive red flag and the federal reserve is telling us this how are we going to get how could we say we're here how could we actually expect to go to higher valuations we can't until the fed u-turns and so folks are wondering kevin what are you doing right now in a macroeconomic cycle change well we know the best thing to do in a larger change that could last years is obviously to build cash by whatever means necessary and be prepared to buy over here you can only buy the bottom when you have money you cannot buy the bottom of the market and i'm telling you you can't even buy the bottom half of the market when you have no money all the people who wanted to buy homes in 2010 who didn't build up cash during 2007 and the beginning of 2008 all those folks were not able to buy homes cheap because they potentially got wiped out they didn't clean up their debt they didn't reduce their spending they didn't build cash now the people who just bought and huddled that's fine for i would say 90 plus percent of investors that's fine if we draw an average of of uh stock prices you're good you sat through four or five years of pain or potentially more depending on when you bought you had to sit through that but sure as long as you got as long as you were more exposed to the market than not you did well it's fine time corrects all sins and so this is where you have to ask yourself are you willing to bet on your belief of the macroeconomic cycle but if you're wrong you got to get back in quickly and so this is dangerous and risky so you have to ask yourself what you want to put yourself through what kind of stress do you want to put yourself through do you believe that the red flags indicate we are at the top of an economic cycle if they are there's no harm in taking profits and preparing even if that means having to take some losses like for example let's say this is what your net worth did over the last uh you know 10 years or whatever and all of a sudden your net worth went down like 20 and it's like oh my gosh but i don't want to sell because i used to be here okay well if you believe the trajectory for the next five years is that then then potentially if you can avoid that fall here and have more cash to buy you could actually extrapolate your wealth more now i want to be critically clear this is all risky and if you're wrong about timing the macro economic cycle you've got to make sure you get back on train america otherwise train america is going to leave you behind now i want to give you exactly what my thoughts are right now as of january 20th 2020 first of all i have no freaking idea when we are going to get a u-turn in inflation data that is the red flag goes away or jerome powell u-turns i have no idea but if we got a u-turn and that red flag went away i need to get back in the market because i gotta be long train america i can't bet against train america my whole life i will get left behind i will get screwed selling uh and not being in the market you will get screwed being out of the market for the long term but but but but if you see massive red flags that indicate we are on a downward trajectory that is potentially likely to continue then it is entirely appropriate to say i believe we're at the top of an economic cycle i'm going to sell even if i've already taken a little bit of a haircut i'm going to wait on the sidelines until i get evidence that being at the top of the economic cycle is over and potentially that is when there is actually blood on the streets when people are really freaking out right and that's when you buy you don't have to be perfectly in the bottom remember you don't have to time it perfectly you have to be the bottom half of the darn cycle you don't want to be at the top half of the cycle and you got to ask yourself are we at the top half are we in the bottom half i think it's pretty damn obvious where we are uh but anyway there's been a lot of question about uh emotions involved in this uh and the top and bottom are always emotional because we're changing directions for changing strategies and when it comes to the psychology of money no matter whether it's real estate or stocks you've got to ask yourself do i want to play the economic cycle or am i willing to potentially sit upside down for four or five years you almost certainly will be positive again in the future almost certainly but are you willing to hold through that and either way you've got to determine or is is the risk of being out of the market worth it because when you get a turn sometimes it can happen fast sometimes you can get a rebound very very quickly so keep that in mind uh usually the turns uh do take more time because people regularly think that they're just fake out rallies so it it takes quite a bit of time i would say at least in the stock market uh u-turns could take quite frankly six months you're not gonna get the best pricing as if you timed the market perfectly at the bottom but but uh that's that's generally unrealistic just do your best and wait for u-turns in the macro economic cycle so i hope this helps on the macroeconomic cycle and folks we'll see in the next one quick append it's also worth noting that in japan you could have invested in the 90s and still not be break even uh but i do want to just provide uh thoughts you've uh on on resources like how do you know uh that the economic the macro indicators are shifting you've got to pay attention to what actually moves markets right now that's the federal reserve but it doesn't always have to be the federal reserve there are other things that can move markets uh there are things that move markets short term and they're things that move markets long term short term would be more like your daily kind of news cycle oh war here or you know geopolitical tensions here saber rattling here blah blah blah right that creates your sort of daily ups and downs your daily fluctuations macro you're usually looking at indicators of gdp indicators of recession the inverted yield curve you're looking at what the federal reserve is doing are they blowing wind at your back or are they providing headwinds those are critical very very critical you don't want the yield curve to invert uh that is the sign of the bond market pricing and the potential for a recession coming uh as uh short-term bonds are more expensive or provide higher yields and long-term bonds which is bizarre uh you you um you really gotta pay attention to the fed you should become a student of the federal reserve if you want to time macroeconomic cycles you should be a student of the federal reserve absolutely critical uh and reading a lot about the federal reserve studying prior crashes huge i think one of the things that they should do in schools is not teach like ancient history like egypt and stuff like that they should teach like market history that would be the best history like studying all the different crashes uh but like in detail you know it's like now we're doing egypt now we're doing it wrong why you know persia or whatever no why mesopotamia come on man teach something that's useful anyway thank you
Comments 0