저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 트럼프 정책 기대(규제완화·법인세 인하·금리 하락)에 따른 친기업 환경을 낙관하며, 산업재·금융 등 경기민감주와 대형 고품질주(granny shots), 크게 저평가된 소형주의 반등 가능성을 강조한다. 엔비디아는 블랙웰 사이클 기대로 긍정적으로 언급되나 구체적 가격 전망은 증권사 인용 위주다. AI 모델 발전 둔화 우려와 관세·무역정책 불확실성은 리스크로 제시하며, 연준 독립성 훼손은 자본시장에 부정적이라고 본다.
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do you think there is real reflation risk at in the next say 6 months uh that is something that we can see how markets are repricing and there's a measure called onee inflation one year forward so what do markets think one year inflation is a year from now that has been creeping up it's actually now at 3.6 it's been a trigger point in the past where the market starts to worry so whether it's the you know the ex the deportation that's causing that or fiscal you know fiscal spending I'm not sure but you know it is markets are starting to think about it Tom Lee of fundstrat global advisers shared his optimistic Market Outlook with in San P Target of 6,300 in confidence in granny shots highquality large cap stocks across key investment themes he highlighted the potential for cyclicals particularly in Industrials and financials benefiting from deregulation and lower interest rates despite challenges in energy and commodities Lee emphasized the opportunity in small cap stock which are trading at steep discounts and poised for recovery after years of underperformance faster earnings growth less trade exposure and potential boosts from mergers make small caps particularly attractive in the current market environment on broader Trends Lee discussed inflation risks deregulation and trade policy uncertainties expressing overall optimism about a pro business climate he also noted emerging concerns about the pace of AI advancements and their potential impact on economic growth and productivity you like to call them granny shots uh easy plays in in your view I I have to imagine that list has gotten longer MH yes uh it is it but it stayed around 35 names you know but just high quality names that are in the right sort of themes you we have seven themes and as long as they're more than one theme they become a granny shot um higher conviction on those names I imagine yes higher conviction and these are names that I think most people are going to be famili familiar with cuz they're large cap stocks there's some discuss question about uh cyclicals today um that they make sense and a lot of you know people are looking to 2016 for analoges but some argue that there's not the commodity price support that you might have had in a prior cycle you buy that uh you don't necessarily need commodity prices to help cyclicals yeah energy but even materials to some degree some are yes that's right yes so for those I I would say yes I'd say the outlook for energy stocks isn't great uh as good as people might expect under a trump president just because expanded drilling is lower oil prices but for cyclicals like Industrials and financials this is you know for all the things you guys were discussing a great environment including m&a and cost of money falling and animal spirits and deregulation let's take a check on shares of Nvidia this morning Piper Sandler naming the stock a top large cap pick and saying it's a must owned for the ramp up of its black Blackwell chip rating that stock in overweight with the price target of 175 the price today $148.7 um you mentioned some of the hyperscalers guys Nvidia couple Nice Notes One is the piper makes it a top pick and then this melus note is pretty interesting Ben writes just goes to 185 he says we're even more excited about black well than we were before giving up on Nvidia with hopper meaning the current cycle Ben says is like giving up on Apple after iPhone 1 or two and they've got some fresh estimates David on hyperscaler capex 28 28 82 is their number 282 282 billion billion over what period of time uh uh year on year it be up 24 year on year and that's including Oracle Amazon meta I'm not sure how it compares to some of the Morgan Stanley numbers we got that was over 100 yeah I mean over right they were they were 300 that's right yeah that or I got to check the numbers you know something has been interesting though that that I've sort of um been trying to focus on there was an information story from last week I also listed listen to this um podcast that uh Mark Andre and and men harowitz do it was actually done prior to the election but has nothing to do with that it was about or at least they raised the idea that the progress of the large language models particularly at open AI is slowing dramatically from one model to the next so to speak and the information in the story also talks about Orion that's the upcoming Flagship model model I guess it's code name there its performance did exceed that of Prior models but the increase in quality was Far smaller compared with the jump between chat gpt3 and chat GPT 4 those are the last two models of course and uh andreon said the same thing on that podcast I I just flagging it because it's kind of interesting if are they running out of data what is the reason is it true uh is there really is slowing in progress because that wasn't expected uh if in fact and they're using as many or more CPUs so it's not like they're it's a chip related issue it simply may be an either a data related issue or unclear certainly for me unclear Carl but that would have big ramifications if the progress suddenly stops I know uh the other and not to get too far a field from what you're saying Andre tweeted the other day called America and economic coiled spring saw that we should be growing at at least four and ideally 6 to8 plus% on GDP um he says growth has been brutally suppressed since before I was born that would be interesting but then we get back to these we had these discussions during the first Trump term and that is you need people and how you going to get that kind of growth with with without people right well maybe it's going to be uh robots generative AI That's again but maybe if it stops progressing Sarah that's the point listen I'll listen to Mark Andre and many other experts on this certainly Jensen I have no idea but that story uh citing people at uh at chat GPT is the sources and then Andre just basically saying it on the podcast as well I thought was interesting it is because we all think it's on a one-way ticket faster and higher correct correct I mean and and and by the way the rate of change will only increase exponentially exponentially so you know perhaps Bears or more just better growth Outlook could help inflation expectations rise I guess where Trump trade 1.0 ran into trouble was around trade policy and and once we see what he delivers there in terms of tariffs something he's been very very consistent on do you think the market is looking past that or everything else the deregulation the lower corporate taxes is going to offset any weakness on trade um I mean I think that if someone was trying to paint a negative picture that's the the tariffs and the trade is is what's on people's minds but of course that's the one where we don't know what the ultimate sort of policies will be I'm sure markets will actually provide a lot of realtime feedback and I think that's going to help shape what the policy is so I think in general we should expect a pro business environment one that's probably Equity friendly as well uh where are we on uh fundamentals and just you know in terms of this recent rally in terms of multiples and your expectations on earnings as we head into next year uh I mean earning season I think actually as as we're wrapping up is is still been very solid as you know the drag earnings has been energy and some of the commodity groups as well as Healthcare but you know groups like Industrials and Tech are are still producing good numbers I think next year the Outlook should be good because cost of money is coming down and we're seeing housing activity pickup and if there's mergers um this is actually much better for small caps and small cap earnings growth has been around 40% so I think it's still sort of guides us to the same trades which is we want to be more cyclical over the next 6 months and then also look at things like small caps and Bitcoin small caps why merges just give me a little bit more on why small caps are going to be a bigger beneficiary well part of it is the backdrop small caps have underperformed for the Last 5 Years by really the largest margin in 25 years they're now trading at 10 times median PE relative and for the S&P that's almost 18 times so a 7 PE discount small earnings growth is faster and not only that but roughly uh 44% of it is I'd call very cyclical and that's things like Regional Banks and Industrials that's going to that's a bigger weight than in the S&P and then finally you know there's a lot of cash on the sidelines and I think if people are looking for Mark breath expansion at small caps well they also don't have the trade exposure they get the they get the benefit from lower taxes and regulation that's a good without the tariffs also so it feels like they're in The Sweet Spot that's right and the the margin of outperformance could be sizable I mean they've underperform by almost 100 percentage points so I think you can recover that over the next few years we were mentioning Elon mus a moment ago um and over the weekend he endorsed this notion from Senator Lee about End the Fed essentially Journal over the weekend with the piece about pal preparing or or being ready to defend a removal if in fact he's asked to leave uh do you think the Bond Market would Revolt at any kind of attempts to influence the fed or re executiv eyesee the FED yeah I mean absolutely I mean the FED uh is the most powerful entity in the world and part of it is its independence and it's something that even the bond market is scared of uh I I think changing this this structure of the central bank would be not good for Capital markets Tom Lee of fun Strat highlights opportunities in high quality large cap stocks and cyclical sectors like Industrials and financials driven by favorable economic conditions and deregulation he also sees small cap stocks as undervalued with strong growth potential making them attractive for recovery after years of underperformance however challenges like Rising inflation and trade policy uncertainties remain Lee also points to concerns about slowing advancements in Ai and their implications for economic growth as markets navigate these opportunities and risks investors face critical decisions in adapting their strategies our small cap stocks a focus in your investment strategy given their growth potential how do you think slowing AI progress might affect future market trends
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