저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Fed 금리 인하 사이클과 좋은 고용지표로 주식시장 지지. 중국 경기부양책은 글로벌 성장과 유동성에 긍정적이며 대기 현금이 미국주식으로 유입될 수 있음. AI 수요는 여전히 강하고 하이퍼스케일러 투자 지속, 테크 섹터 15~20% 추가 상승 전망. 엔비디아 우위 유지, 브로드컴(VMware 효과)과 램리서치 추가매수, 팔란티어 등 주목. 변동성(VIX 약 20)은 남아있을 수 있음.
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Tom uh we've seen some changes in in the swaps Market with regard to expectations for future uh rate cuts at least in terms of magnitude how does that alter the Calculus if at all for the equity markets if it is now looking more like a 25 basis point cut in November instead of 50 Paces points uh in those waiting changing does that impact expectations in the equity Market or that's not really priced in at this point in time well the we know that uh fed fund Futures and expectations about the magnitude of cuts over the next couple meetings does affect the bond market and we're seeing that reaction today and you know of course I'm even seeing some folks think the FED made a mistake with 50 but for the stock market I think what matters more is really the fed the FED is actually in an easing cycle and we're making our way towards neutral and so I I think that there is going to be times where the stock market where the S&P is going to rise even if yields are up I think we're in an instant there because is yields can be rising because the economic data is better and so we're kind of rising for good reasons on yields and I think that's supportive a stock so I'm I'm not too bothered if if the odds of a 50 have dropped today because of a good jobs report because I don't think it means the FED is suddenly backpedaling and and back to hiking mode Tom Lee from fundstrat Global advisors discusses market dynamics following a strong jobs report and a vix close to 20 he views the positive stock market response as encouraging indicating economic resilience despite lingering geopolitical risk the vixs elevated level however suggests volatility May persist limiting a clear path to a strong year-end rally Le's technical strategist predicts a market low setting the stage for potential highs next week depending on CPI data and rate cut expectations regarding interest rates Lee explains that lower projections for Fed rate cuts are weighing on bonds but might not dampen stocks due to optimism around the fed's overall easing stance with Rising yields potentially reflecting better economic data he believes stocks particularly in Tech could Thrive Lee highlights China's recent economic interventions as a boost for Global growth and sees excess cash on the sidelines as supportive of us equities Lee is especially bullish on Tech noting AI driven demand and investment Trends he anticipates robust gains for companies like Microsoft Amazon and Google positioning tech stocks for further growth his view is that Nvidia will likely continue its market dominance despite emerging competitors while other semiconductor companies like broadcom and new IPOs offer alternative growth Avenues what what do we make of the market in light of the jobs number and a vix which I know you're watching but is still close to 20 today uh yes I mean I think we're in a tricky period um because there are these sort of complications which is um geopolitical risk we've got the Port strike out of the way and I know October has these seasonals I I think it's very good news to see the stock market react positively to a jobs report because it is in fact a good report showing the the economy's actually not only holding up but the unemployment rates down uh but I agree with you the vix is important to tell us how much we could rally um I know our head of technical strategy Mark Newton thinks that we're making intraday lows today and it's setting up for us to make new highs next week I I mean to me that makes sense just because it has been a resilient economy and then next week we get CPI but I do think it's hard to say this is a green light into year end because as you're pointing out the vix is just staying stubbornly High everybody that you come in contact with and I mean everybody says to you oh you're in the investment business what do you think about Nvidia and there there are people who have no idea what Nvidia is I feel like don't you feel like that's cooled down a little bit yes yes but that's good that is healthier for the market it's like GameStop it's like we should all own GameStop because we heard it from the person cutting our hair I don't think so so it's the same Dynamic you have to have something broader and the professionals who are buying these stocks I mean we know the companies we're buying it's not just the S&P index that's that's moving higher it's other buying in addition to it I'm not suggesting we're not going to have Nvidia earnings watch parties anymore because there's still going to be a thing but it does feel like a little bit of the fervor about that has cooled a bit which is which is good I mean you make the argument that that that's good now you know outside of the mega caps you do have the filing of an IPO by a chip maker it's uh Sarah Bross maybe they'll take on Nvidia uh the latest funding round value that company 4 billion backers include Sam Alman code2 altimeter Benchmark uh plant to go public in the NASDAQ I don't know B OFA today says the highest owned semis still are relatively underweight if you if you want to believe that Steph what do you make of that the that the highest owned semis are still relatively underweight I know I am well yeah but that's what happens when you're at 8% of the S&P you know or or 6% 6 and a half% with Nvidia and whatever it is 2% with broadcom that's 10% and two names close to I mean you can't you can't be overweight otherwise you only have six stocks in your portfolio so that so so that's not that that stat is not telling of not an opportunity that exists that's how it's being painted I think it's interesting actually I I've been adding to broadcom and lamb research on on the kind of the the declines if you will they're volatile stocks you get a look every once in a while right so I think that broadcom to me is just the one that I wanted to bet on and versus Nvidia I mean I'm still up quite a bit in it hasn't done as well but I think you can still make a lot of money I mean why I like broadcom only because that their AI business certainly is growing three to fourfold right but they also have VMware and that actually changes the story completely in terms of software in terms of margins and free cash flow and so to me that's the one I'm betting on but I kind of like the fact that if if that is in fact true that people are underweight semis that's not a bad sign well it it's mostly because they're underweight Nvidia and it's like saying people are underweight Apple almost everybody is or underweight Microsoft because again very very I I yeah I get that but if you added up everything what would it be now I don't know 14% of the S&P I I don't know it's a big number it's hard hard to be overweight I know it's too soon for you to talk about this company specifically but at least it raises the issue of companies that are out there that want a piece of this AI piie how should we be thinking about these newcomers relative to the heavyweights like Nvidia yeah yeah you you yeah so there's there's a number of areas of competition for NVIDIA which makes sense it's an enormous potential opportunity and all the dollars right now are flowing to Nvidia and you've got other Merchant suppliers like like AMD or even Intel um you have hyperscalers doing their own products and then you have startups as as as well right and I think for a lot of the startups it it look it's difficult they don't have scale um you know they don't have ecosystem and if if they're pitch is you know we have a chip that's better than Nvidia I think that's that's hard because you know with every generation Nvidia has a chip that's better than Nvidia and they have the software and all the ecosystem support that goes with it so um I'm not going to comment on cerebrus but they're doing some other things I mean clearly you know you know they're they're they're going to they're going to try their best at this point um but in general like you know so far it's been a winner take all like in and I as I said this before it it seems like it's invidious game to lose like like more broadly well I mean it's winter tick most right I mean it's not like broadcom hasn't hasn't done well the issue though the the issue though is that you know as it's done better it's multiples gone up hasn't it so it's not as cheap as it was viewed to be before on China Tom uh is it is it good for Global growth uh but how is it offset if at all uh by any kind of drains to liquidity or just the rush of hot money uh to either cover shorts over there or try to play along with us uh I think on balance it's very good news that China's pboc and the government have launched a bazooka series of measures uh because it has been you know on a relative basis a drag not only on the global economy but a huge underperformer for the past 10 years um I don't think us investors are selling their us equities or even small cap stocks to buy China I I think it's coming out of all this cash on the sidelines we know margin debt hasn't moved for 4 months and it's still way below the 2021 highs of 936 billion and we know there's 6 trillion cash on the sideline so I think this is motivating money into action but it it's overall I think a positive back I mean I just got back from Asia's second trip in the last 6 weeks it's more firm I I'm actually more incrementally more bullish because everything we're seeing in terms of Chip demand the use cases that are ultimately driving Ai and the hypers scale I mean to Microsoft I believe this is actually just the next leg in Microsoft I think numbers go up much higher for 2025 just given our view the AI Revolution we're in the early days and I think it's a risk on envirment for Tech going into your end why why is the chip trade been so squirly then I think the concern concerns about ultimately is demand softening and but that's why we spend so much time in Asia we think demands out shm and Supply 15 to1 and it speaks to the bullishness not just on Godfather of AI Jens and Nvidia but it just when you look at overall the hyperscalers it's Microsoft it's Amazon it's Google that's the foundation that's now what I've viewed the second third fourth derivative that's why names like pal Ander front and center in terms of the use case names where I think many institutions kind of put it by the side now front and you think there's enough that's not in the stocks cuz a a lot of what we're talking about is known it's expected at this point and that's why the valuations and the prices have been bit up I mean in our opinion I believe streets underestimating numbers across the board in Tech 15 to 20% when you look out next 2 to 3 years and that's you know that's really our thesis is that as these use cases build out you only have 3% Enterprise that have actually gone down the AI path you have a trillion dollars of AI capex coming and Scott I see it feed on the ground in Asia and that's why I get the Bears come out of hibernation mode and you know try to scare many but I think when I look at Tech I believe this is a tech Market that goes up another 15 20% going into next 3 to four months he's too bullish or no I so people were saying he was too bullish last year and here's what's happened over the last year Nvidia is the second best performer in the market up 167% um people at the start of this year in January they said okay now they're going to rotate away from the AI Darlings we're going to do something else it's 8 months later guess what the number one performing stock of the year is NVIDIA is tied with v de Corp they're both up 136% so at a certain point Nvidia can't be up 136% every single year but this idea that we're all going to be smart enough to know when this is it this is the top and it's time to rotate out it continues to fool people and Nvidia continues to stay bid Tom Lee from fun Strat is optimistic about the Market's resilience seeing strength in the economy and positive job data despite High vix levels he expects stocks to Rally if CPI data aligns with China's recent economic moves and the fed's easing stance adding potential support Lee is particularly bullish on AI and tech stocks highlighting companies like Nvidia and Microsoft due to Growing demand he views nvidia's strong position as unmatched despite new competition and expects significant gains for Tech in the months ahead do you agree with with Lee's positive outlook on tech stocks despite volatility how do you think China's economic policies will impact Global markets soon
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