저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Fed 금리 인하 기대와 경기 초기 사이클 신호로 소형주 반등 가능성을 주장. 러셀2000은 S&P500 대비 5년간 연 5.7%p 부진했으나 밸류에이션 갭(약 8포인트 PER 격차)이 회복 여지를 준다고 봄. 주택·내구재는 이미 리세션 경험, 주택담보대출 스프레드 정상화 시 금리 추가 하락 가능. 엔비디아는 PER 1배 미만 성장률로 저평가, 반도체 전체는 AI 외 수요 부진으로 관망. 전력 소비(EV, AI 데이터센터, 암호화폐) 테마 유망.
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well for instance housing has been in a recession durable goods has been in a recession um you know if you like a transport SE breaking about but they're cyclically they've been actually acting like they've been in a recession so I think a big chunk of the economy has been recession like and the Skeptics have thinking this would pull the whole economy into recession but instead I think the FED is turning doish and it's the stock market this year reflects midcycle versus Nega 125 basis points by year end end which is the Fed cut expectation so tell us what we're looking at and why it's important to you yeah what we have here is several segments of the economy small business loans mortgages including adjustable rate in home equity line to credit car loans and credit card rates and we're showing how much these things will drop when the FED Cuts okay this is understanding what mortgages will do because the mortgage spread today is it's w yeah super wide it actually historically is 170 basis points to 200 I think yeah so it it could drop almost another percentage Point what the mortgage rate versus for 30-year fix today 30-y year fix versus what 10 funds rate so if the 10 year doesn't move but the mortgage spread normalizes we we'll have a sub 5% in this video the discussion focuses on the current market dynamics especially regarding small cap stocks and the Federal Reserves policy shift the conversation begins with the view that the market is showing signs of of a significant breakout with certain stocks reaching multi-year highs such as Chinese internet stocks and US Stock despite some skepticism about an extended rally there is a growing belief that the economy which has been recession likee in Parts is actually early cycle signaling positive conditions for future growth the video then delves into the impact of the federal reserve's potential interest rate cuts on the economy particularly how various sectors like small businesses mortgages and Consumer Credit will benefit it also highlights how small capit stocks have been underperforming in recent years but with the potential for a strong rebound as market conditions improve and multiple factors such as mergers and biotech growth come into play there's also a focus on how AI electric vehicles and energy consumption will drive future growth in the market the final part of the discussion addresses the semiconductor industry where nvidia's strong performance contrasts with broader struggles in other sectors like automotive and Consumer Electronic the video suggests that while air related demand is thriving other segments of the semiconductor Market are facing challenges leading investors to adopt a cautious wait and see approach as earning season progresses uh our stance at fun Strat is to treat it like a real move uh so we did a webinar yesterday for our clients and Mark Newton uh really pointed out this is actually a pretty significant breakout because we've moved to levels that you would expect uh a much bigger retracement and he was talking about how many of these stocks then kind of approach multi-year high so Chinese internet stocks I'm guessing yeah like kweb KB or fxi and so hours yes the US and so uh people who have the 6 trillion cash on the sidelines or low leverage this now suddenly looks like a really good way to there yeah if if I made a a measurement gap between like perception of macro versus like logically macro it's a huge gap because I think many people think this is an extended rally an expensive Market and a business cycle that's late cycle but so much of what you can point to is early cycle so that's a huge gap that is a positive the Russell 2000 is underperforming the S&P 500 by 5.7% annually over the last 5 years so I'm reading this correctly which is the worst period of underperformance since the peak of the Doom bubble correct and look what happened after yeah because unless you can fundamentally make the case that small caps are worse businesses now because valuation Gap is eight points a multiple um if there's a chance for the multiple to catch up including fed Cuts mergers you know Regional Banks biotech rallying all of this would argue that should flip so small cap should be outperform yeah and and it's actually a dollar multiplier thing that you're talking about on top of that cuz I know like Dan IES has said there's like I forgot $3 $5 of non- AI spend that follows AI spending yes and if that's infrastructure or if it's uh people getting jobs or if it's software or services or advertising that does not AI spending that happens because of previous AI spending that's right yeah and then on top of that as you know China's been dormant for for a long time and relative outperformance cycle you know several hundred basis points a year and that was a great time for investors because they could find a lot of great stocks that were and what is coming out very loud and clear is that the opportunity is much larger the competitive position is much stronger and then finally when I look at uh the stock right we have a stock that is trading less than one times earnings growth and if you were to take an average of the other so-called Max 7 they are trading at 1.9 times uh their uh average earnings growth for next year that is why we think that uh we are in front of a large opportunity the company is executing well and the valuation is very compelling even at these levels VC let me ask you today is interesting because Nvidia is doing well but the rest the semis are actually struggling and the stocks is lower what what explains that yes Skelly I think uh you know this week we had uh the start of uh earnings uh we had one very tough report from asml very uh then we had a very strong report from uh tsmc uh next week we will have a number of other earnings report from uh semiconductor companies and the challenge the industry is facing is that this you know one shiny area of AI is doing extremely well but it is less than 20% of the overall industry whereas the rest of the industry which has to do with industrial and automotive and PC and smartphone demand that is just not doing as well so I think it's possible that investors are taking a wait and see attitude uh before uh we get into the heart of this uh earning season so I think it's that kind of very uh normal uh earnings volatility that we uh usually see that might not be the case this time because they were never reliant on overnight rates what do you think about that idea um small caps yeah uh what what I think happened is the Fed signaled to the business World in 2022 uh there that there's a hurricane coming and so I think businesses got cautious and the Really ones with plentiful cash weather storm well small caps really got destroyed because of the cost of money isn't that crazy the government said or the FED said hey we're putting the brakes on prepare for a recession the company said okay we'll prepare for a recession no recession yeah yeah and as you know there's obsolescence so 5% of Capital stock depletes what even Tower companies you know 5% of Towers fall so there's been deferred expansion and that's why hiring is stronger because when you defer Capital spend you actually have more employment uh so I think that there's not only deferred capex there's mergers that have been on basically on hold IPOs too yeah Capital markets and at a time when there's probably a lot of things that now could be done and now with some confidence and Boards can approve so I I think it's going to be very expansionary but obviously biggest beneficiary should be small caps cuz they got hit actually if you only did profitable it's it's like 12 point something okay and in the S&P it's close to 18 times now yeah so you could just have an 80% move in the Russell just by the multiple expanding okay but earnings are growing faster and typically they trade at a premium so you have many ways to win on the Russell there was some sort of storm and it shut down business so he said claims were going to just go a little wacky and so I think some of this was seasonality not isolating and do you remember the labor reports were really funky around then too yes so I I'm sorry I do remember that Spike and I do remember s even walking back her rule when it was triggered credit to her credit to her she said yes what are we looking at here you have a chart of a lot of the components of CPI back to pre-pandemic levels yes that's right and what that red line says that before the pandemic historically 50% of CPI components are below their long-term average oh wow uh so that's like that's a sign of inflation's under control we crossed 50% as you can see in late 2023 and that number now has crept to 55% so by this measure world and data center is us and so that means power has to be built around here or maybe in the Middle East I mean who knows but right both kind of move in lock you like you like that theme you believe in that theme I I I we actually had our summer interns work on that theme because there are three sources of sort of extraordinary power consumption one is electric vehicles the second is AI and data centers and the intensity of energy and third is is crypto okay you know is digital money so all three are going to be sort of Tailwinds for cons I don't actually have the numbers off to my head cuz Okay but so the conclusion of that research was this this theme has legs yeah so power production and it could be even things like Ceramics and other ways to uh to optimize energy production or cooling like cool it's energy production and cooling but all all related to efficiency of power if Mark Newton were sitting here what would he say about the internals and the technicals let's do this percentage of members above the 200 day yeah or it's a test because if it's then if it's strong it strengthens from there okay all right uh is this something that's important to you the behavior of stocks inside of the indices when you're like like the internals the internals in general I think it's important I I think people can sometimes over interpret internals like for many for a long time people were criticizing the market because it was led by seven stocks but that's that's actually wasn't a sign of weakness it was just I think yeah I think the dynamic would be different if people were fully invested and the Market's narrow because then you realize you have no more oxygen but we have so much cash on the sidelines margin debt is still low where it was in 2021 so there's Firepower and now the fed's doish right and China's turning so like as you're saying Matt Michael it's like a lot the current market environment presents a significant gap between macroeconomic perceptions and the reality of early cycle conditions while many remain cautious expecting a recession parts of the economy including housing and durable goods have already experienced a recession likee State small cap stocks having been hit hardest by tighter monetary policy are now well positioned to benefit from improving conditions especially as the FED signals a more dobish stance as valuations narrow small caps are expected to outperform offering a potential for growth driven by multiple expansion and positive earnings momentum additionally sectors like AI electric vehicles and digital currencies are driving energy consumption which may fuel further growth with global Trends indicating increasing demand for Energy Efficiency this could have long-term positive implications for the economy the current valuation gap between large cap and small cap stocks offers an opportunity for significant returns especially as the overall Market stabilizes are we seeing a recovery in small caps and could the expected fed Cuts be the Catalyst for this how do the current macroeconomic trends influence stock market volatility and sector performance
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