저자: RamdevAgrawal · 외국인
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2025년 2월 예산 발표 후 소비 촉진 효과 긍정 평가. 12lakh까지 세금 면제로 소비가 늘어날 것으로 봄. 다만 자본지출(Capex) 수치는 전년 예산 반복 수준이며 실행 여부가 관건이라 지적. 성장률 7~8% 달성을 위해선 재정뿐 아니라 통화정책과 신용 흐름(현재 약 10% 수준, 과거 15%에서 하락)이 중요하다고 강조. 소비재 기업 전망은 긍정적이나 도시 수요와 실적 하향 우려 존재. 2025-26 기업 이익 전망치(약 1200) 달성 가능성을 언급하며 현재 수준이 편안한 위치라고 봄.
다듬은 글
Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services has joined us. Ramdev Sir, good afternoon. The budget has made everyone happy. There is no tax up to Rs 12 lakh and it has been given for consumption, so it is not taken out from anyone else's pocket. Generally, what happens is that people take money from one place and give it to another.
What is clear here? They have given a boost to consumption, but not at the cost of any other sector. So that is a very good thing. So there are only positives, there is not much of a negative in this budget. Sir, one thing which the market initially took as a negative was the Capex number, that is, okay, consumption.
Look at the commentary, I heard your actual numbers, they are like 10, 10.1, 18 or 10.2 for this year. For 242, even that will not reach me completely. So clearly, you are spending Rs 1.25 lakh this year, so next year you are spending Rs 1.25 lakh on top of that, by taking an even higher number, meaning you will get growth on top of the last budget estimate.
If it was to be done then obviously it has not happened because I think action quality is also an issue. So I think it seems to me that for this year, you have repeated the last year's capex budget in 2012, so if that is executed completely, then growth will start again. So I do not think that there is any change in their direction for infrastructure build up and whatever capex is required where needed.
The only change is that brother, you were completely ignoring consumption. In the first budget, the despine industry had completely stagnated, you have perked it up a little by giving this tax free up to 12 lakhs. So because of that booster, was the entire market stagnant in favor of capex and a little tail wind came, your consumption went down, I mean, see, RBI addressed the liquidity concern, today you addressed the consumption, but one thing which to a large extent the decision of RBI is data driven, now you feel that Sir Is there a possibility of a rate cut in the current inflation policy or the current inflation policy at least does not permit that, no, no, all that should happen, see, monetary, fiscal, everything means there is all sorts of things, if you want growth at 7-8, then you will have to address it in all ways, it will not happen just by fiscal, monetary has a huge role, I would say 90%, monetary has a role, if you do not have credit flow in these, then no matter what you do, it is not going to go back, it is a matter of no credit, no growth, so until your credit is 14, 15, 16, I don't know what number it is, what should it be, right now it is around 10, until this credit flow level does not come back, according to my little understanding, I do not think that economic growth will pick up, well, economic growth will not pick up, your tax Ramdev sir, hold on for a second, just Prime Minister Modi is commenting, let's go over that once again, Ramdev, we have many sectors opened for the youth, the common citizen, this is going to drive the mission of developed India.
The budget is a force multiplier. This budget will increase savings, boost investment, and rapidly increase consumption. I congratulate Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her entire team for this, the people's budget. Friends, usually the focus of the budget is on filling the government's coffers, but this budget is completely the opposite.
This budget lays a strong foundation for how this budget will fill the pockets of the citizens, how their savings will increase, and how the citizens will become partners in development. Friends, important steps have been taken towards reform in this budget. The decision to promote the private sector in nuclear energy is historic.
It will ensure a major contribution of civil nuclear energy to the country's development in the times to come. All sectors of employment have been given priority in the budget, but I would like to draw attention to two things. I would like to discuss those reforms which will bring about a huge change in the times to come.
By granting infrastructure status, the construction of big ships in India will be encouraged. Self-reliant India The campaign will gain momentum, and we all know that shipbuilding is the largest employment-generating sector. Similarly, there is immense potential for tourism in the country. For the first time, a lot of emphasis has been placed on tourism by bringing the hotels built at 50 important tourist destinations under the ambit of infrastructure.
This will boost the hospital sector, which is a major employment source, and tourism, which is the largest employment source, in a way, will create employment opportunities and energize the region. Today, the country is moving ahead with the mantra of development and heritage. Important and concrete steps have been taken in this budget as well.
The Gyan Bharatam Mission has been launched for the preservation of one crore manuscripts. Along with this, a national digital repository inspired by the Indian knowledge tradition will be created, technology will be used to the fullest, and the nectar will also be extracted from our traditional knowledge.
Friends, the announcements made for farmers in the budget will form the basis of a new revolution in the agriculture sector and the entire rural economy. Development of irrigation and infrastructure in 100 districts under the PM Dhan Dhanya Krishi Yojana. The Kisan Credit Card limit will be increased to Rs 5 lakh, which will provide them greater support.
Friends, in this budget, income up to Rs 12 lakh has been exempted from tax. Taxes have also been reduced for people of all income groups. This will be a huge benefit for our middle class. Those who have jobs and whose income has been stopped will benefit greatly from this. Similarly, for those who have entered new professions and have got new jobs, this exemption from income tax will become a huge opportunity for them.
Friends, this budget has a 360-degree focus on manufacturing, so that special support has been given to many sectors ranging from the Entrepreneur Mission to clean tech, leather, footwear, and the toy industry. The clear goal is that Indian products can shine in the global market. Friends, special emphasis has been placed in the budget on creating a vibrant competitive environment for investment in the states.
An announcement has also been made to double the credit guarantee for MSMEs and startups. A scheme for loans up to Rs 2 crore has also been introduced for SC, ST, and women who want to become new entrepreneurs. This budget is also without guarantee. Keeping the new age economy in mind, a major announcement has been made for gig workers.
For the first time, gig workers will be registered on the e-shram portal. After this, these colleagues will get the benefit of healthcare and other social security schemes. This reflects the government's commitment towards Dignity of Labour and its cause. From regulatory reforms to financial reforms, steps like Jan Vishwas 2.0 further strengthen our commitment to minimum government and trust-based governance.
Friends, this budget not only keeps in mind the current needs of the country but also helps us prepare for the future. Deep Tech Fund for Startups, Jio Special Mission and Nuclear Energy Mission are such important steps. I once again congratulate all the countrymen on this historic People's Budget and once again congratulate the Finance Minister.
Thank you very much. I cried. Okay, so this was Prime Minister Modi and now let's go back to Ramdev Sir. Ramdev Sir, in the clear market, as you were saying, now there will be a shift in focus and If consumption and the economy will grow more than 7 per cent this year because the base effect has also reduced a bit now, should we believe that a market can not only reach an all-time high but can also go further or is it a bit hasty to think so far ahead?
I think Anuj, what does RBI do, whatever is the mood, whatever the Prime Minister said, from what the Prime Minister said, it is understood that their developed India or larger growth objective is that they will push the economy to 7 per cent or 7 per half of the growth because if that growth does not come then there will be a lot of trouble in the sense that tax collection will not come or other problems will also come, so clearly they, even at a little cost, will push the growth.
Now, the biggest thing for that, in my opinion, apart from fiscal, right now there is a lot on monetary which will come from RBI in the next budget meeting or the credit flow which is in the economy has almost reduced a lot, from 15 per cent it has reduced to 10 per cent. I think it will be clear in the next month or so.
Which way the wind is blowing, if we assume that the credit flow still remains at 9-10, then I do n't think how much color will Dispina bring in the overall growth. Well, Ramat ji, today's top gainers are Zomato and Dodo. Positive news has come. Firstly, if money is coming into the hands of more people, then there will be expenses.
And there is also some very positive news for gig workers regarding the insurance scheme. Is this the brutal correction that we saw in these stocks in the last few days, is it giving a chance for re-entry? Look, what is this, brother, if you drop the stocks by 20-30 pence in one day and increase it to 5-7 pence, then this is the movement of the market, it will continue, maybe anything else can happen on Monday, the color may be different, but as it is good, today is sentimental as well, volume is also low, there will be a little short covering as well.
I think in many stocks, due to that reason, you can't read everything for one day but directionally. Think it looks that better times are ahead for consumer companies, particularly digital consumers, what stance Trump puts forward and most importantly how will the earnings be in future. But if we look at the earnings, one major concern was urban demand, which has been tried to be pushed, so keeping all these parameters in mind, should we expect some market adjustment from here?
Now let's see, the analysts will use their brain and maybe tomorrow or day after tomorrow, people will talk to the company and tell us how much impact it will have on the actual earnings because right now there is a bit of a pessimistic atmosphere, this quarter's result is also coming out bad, there is growth of 5-6, so I think that by March 25, in 5, instead of 1000, your earnings will be 1050, which means the estimator of 1200 for next year 25-26 means that from 1050 directly to 1200, that is for the ups and downs that were happening.
I feel that now there is a chance of 1200 coming. 1200 for 25-26, so if it becomes 1200 then your bottom becomes 20 for next year. I feel that this is a very comfortable spot to be in, but whether it will be from 1050 to 12 or not, that means let us see what kind of mood the analysts create. As you always say, whatever number Gautam gives you, you automatically cut a little bit from it and you had said one thing that this real recovery will start next year, but this time for the first time you seem confident that those numbers will be amazing, it does not mean next year.
I feel that the monetary policy will follow the sentiment set by the budget, your monitoring policy will follow the same sentiment in the next two-three weeks or fortnight, so keeping that in mind, I feel that Gautam's original estimator of 25526 is a good chance of it coming. There is a chance and one last question is that although we have talked about it to some extent, I was just looking at the auto sales and after the budget, perhaps there will be a little more growth in these numbers, yes there was a little turnaround, rural rural rural rural consumption and we will probably meet you again in some time, then we will understand you in a little more detail, thank you so much for joining us today and talking on all these topics, Mar m
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