저자: RamdevAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
예산안이 소비를 부양하면서 타 부문 희생 없이 긍정적이며, 자본지출 기조는 유지된다. 신용 성장 둔화(15%→10%)가 경기 회복의 핵심 변수라 RBI 통화정책 완화가 중요하다. 총수익(어닝) 추정치는 하향 조정 가능성이 있으나 내년 회복 기대는 유지. 디지털 소비주(Zomato 등)에 긍정적 흐름이 보이며, 자동차 판매는 점진 개선 전망.
다듬은 글
Ramdev Aggarwal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, is with us. Ramdev Sir, good afternoon. The budget has made everyone happy. There is no tax up to Rs 12 lakh and it has been given for consumption, so it is not taken out from anyone else's pocket. Generally, what happens is that people take money from one place and give it to another.
What is clear here? They have given a boost to consumption, but not at the cost of any other sector. So that is a very good thing. There are only positives, there is not much of a negative in this budget. Sir, one thing which the market initially took as a little negative was the Capex numbers, that it is okay.
Look at the consumption, I heard the commentary. Your actual numbers are like 10, 10.11 or 10.2 for this year. For 24/24, I think that too will not reach the full figure. So clearly, you are spending Rs 1.25 lakh this year, so next year you are spending Rs 1.25 lakh, and on top of that, you will take an even higher number, which means the last year's budget estimator will give you growth.
If it was done then obviously it has not happened because I think execution quality is also an issue. So from my point of view it seems to me that for this year, you repeated the capex budget of last year in 2011. So if that is executed completely, then growth will start again. So I do not think that there is any change in their direction for infrastructure build up and whatever cap is required where it is needed.
The only change is that brother, you were completely ignoring the consumer. In the first budget, the despine industry had completely stagnated, you have perked it up a little by giving this tax free up to 12 lakhs. So, because of that booster, was the entire market stagnant on the capex side and a little tail wind came on your consumer side, so that change which is happening is what is visible in the market today.
Sir, many of these things have been addressed in the last one week, I mean, see, you have addressed the concerns of the liquidity, did the RBI address it today? Consumption is one thing which to a large extent RBI decides is data driven. Now you are thinking that Sir, is there a possibility of a rate cut in the upcoming policy or the current inflation policy at least does not permit that right now, no, no, all that should happen, see monetary, fiscal, everything means there is all sorts of things, if you want growth at 7-8, then you will have to address it in all ways, it will not happen only with fiscal, monetary has a huge role, I would say 90% monetary role, if there is no credit flow in your economy, then no matter what you do, it is not going to go back, it is a matter of no credit, no growth, so until your credit is 14, 15, 16, I don't know what number it is, what should it be, right now it is around 10, until this credit flow level does not come back, according to my little understanding, I do not think that economic growth will pick up, well economic growth will not pick up, your tax sir, so in the clear market, as you were saying, now there will be a shift in focus and consumption will not only reach an all-time high.
It can be put in place and can go even further or it would be a bit hasty to think so far ahead. I think Anuj, what does RBI do, whatever is the mood of what the Prime Minister said, from what the Prime Minister said, one thing is clear from what he said that for their developed India or the large growth objective, they will push the economy to 7 or 7 percent growth because if that growth does not come then there will be a lot of trouble in the state, tax collection will not come or other problems will come, so clearly they, even at a little cost, will push the growth.
Now, the biggest thing for that, in my opinion, apart from fiscal, right now there is a lot on monetary, which will come from RBI in the next budget meeting, or the credit flow which has almost reduced in the economy, it has reduced from 15 to 10, I think that will be understood in the next month or 15, that way the wind is blowing, if we assume that the credit flow still remains at 9 or 10, then I do not think that despinas The result will be very good and this credit growth has reached 15-17, then you will see how much color will come in the overall growth, well Ram ji, today's top gainer is Zomato and Dodo, positive news has come, firstly, money is coming into the hands of more people, so there will be expenses and a very positive news has also come for gig workers regarding the insurance scheme, is this the brutal correction that we saw in these stocks in the last few days, is it giving a chance for re-entry, see, brother, if you drop the stocks by 20-30 percent in one day and increase it by 5 percent, then this is the market trend, it will continue, maybe anything else can happen on Monday, the color may be different, but as it is, today it is sentimental, volume is also low, there will be a little short covering as well, I think in many stocks, due to that you can't read everything for one day, but directionally I think it looks like better times are ahead for consumer companies, particularly digital consumer companies.
We, well Ramdev ji, now this Will some market adjustments be seen after the budget? There are still more events ahead, be it RBI policy, what stance Trump takes in the future and most importantly, how will the earnings be in the future. But if we look at the earnings, one major concern was urban demand, urban consumption, which has been tried to be pushed, so keeping all these parameters in mind, should we expect some market adjustments from here?
Let's see now, now the analysts will use their brains and maybe tomorrow or day after tomorrow, people will talk to the company and tell us how much impact there will be on the actual earnings because right now there is a bit of a pessimistic atmosphere, this quarter's results are also coming out bad, there is growth of 5-6, so I think March 25 is over, in 5, instead of 1000, your earnings will be 1050, which means the estimator of 1200 for next year 25-26 means 150 to 1200, that is, for that there is an up or down.
I was thinking that now there is a chance of 12 paise, 1200 for 25-26, so if it becomes 1200 then your bottom becomes 20 p for next year, I feel like this is a very comfortable spot to be in, but whether it will be 1050 to 1200 or not, that means let's see what kind of mood the analysts create, as you always say, whatever numbers Gautam gives you, you automatically cut a little bit from it and you had said one thing that this real recovery will start next year, but this time for the first time you seem confident that those numbers will be achieved, it does not mean next year, I feel that the monetary policy will follow the sentiment set by the budget, your monetary policy will follow the same sentiment in the next two-three weeks or fortnight, so I am keeping that in mind, I feel that Gautam's original estimator is a good chance of coming There is a chance and one last question is that although we have talked about it to some extent, I was just looking at auto sales, it will get a little better, then it will get even better, then we will get more boosters, so right now this cycle will last for two-three years, it has just been consumed, now some good days will come for these too, sir, thank you so much for joining us today and we will probably meet you again in some time, then we will understand in a little more detail, thank you so much for joining us today and
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