저자: 미상 · 외국인
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팔란티어 4분기 실적 프리뷰. 3분기 조정영업이익률 38%, 룰오브40 68%, 미국 상업 고객 77% 성장 등 지표 양호를 짚으며 매출 성장률 30% 이상 유지와 가이던스 상향 여부가 핵심 변수라고 봄. 4분기 매출은 약 7.9억 달러 이상(30% 성장 기준) 필요하다고 계산. 주가는 80달러대에서 기대가 선반영된 상태로 평가.
다듬은 글
it's time to get hyped another quarter down and we've got Pounders Q4 2024 earnings released in only a couple days after hours this is for quarter 4 and for full year 2024 earnings preview where we'll go over last quarter's earnings presentation for Q3 and the metrics there but also give my thoughts after on the upcoming earnings and what could be the make or break moments in my opinion so diving right in they started out last earnings highlights getting right into some anecdotal data points on how their AIP boot camps are doing and how quickly they are turning this around there's no official metric here per se but I hope to see them continue to highlight how these boot camps are performing and maybe they've come up with a metric here officially after running so many at this point but always great to see them tout these total contract values getting signed into the multi-millions from weeks to months of work where we know these are huge decisions for these clients to sign on for multiple millions of dollars but it attests to the value proposition demonstrated with these boot camps and also as usual they showcase the highlights throughout the quarter big things happen back in Q3 2024 especially like the S&P but for Q4 even with the price runup they'll probably tout the deals they've gone through and signed on on the US and Commercial side so it'll be interesting to see what they want to draw attention to and who knows they may be Clues on the theme of what they're trying to achieve going forward now onto the earnings numbers refresher Gap net income first rising to 143.5 million in a single quarter so this has continued to grow as expected meaning they are responsible managing their expenses while keeping their eligibility in the S&P 500 and as always I just care to keep this positive and really just want this for S&P eligibility following the typical Growth Company plan of course of focusing on Topline and then turning on the faucet later on to maximize Gap net income when they need to and this is similar to the Gap operating income I definitely keep a closer eye on this because it's on a gap basis and for their operating income I want to know if they're able to make money with their business and continuing to Trend this up words and saying positive is what I care about now the rule of 40 which is still a more recent metric being showcased on their earnings presentations obviously looking back in 2022 and early 2023 you can see this wasn't necessarily trending in the way they wanted to and they weren't sharing that at that point but since then they've continued to build this up and this is simply a rule of thumb use for SAS companies to show how sustainable their business is while achieving growth as the name implies 40 is the goal and they are clearly exceeding this at 68% as of last quarter now I don't necessarily care for them to Max us out out of the woo because this is a byproduct of them already performing well so even if this is maintained in the high 60s to 70s that's still good in my book honestly now the numbers with the most eyes on them Revenue first for us Revenue growth breakdown which we know is their bread and butter for both commercial and government they grew 44% for their last quarterly figure this is something a lot of folks are writing on and seeing overperform and hopefully considering this is their strongest market and then beating out that 44% will be very important to see if money is still flowing in the direction but just remember two this Baseline will be based on Q4 2023 for the next earnings and for us Revenue numbers that's so at $368 million so achieving 44% will be exceeding the $500 million Revenue Point around $530 million actually so we'll see if that actually comes true and looking at the breakdown too of us Revenue the government side grew at 40% while commercial commcial was 54% so obviously with the lower Baseline in commercial we're expecting this to overperform in order for them to hit higher and I just pointed out here as well for the US government that's still important for their business and it is a big part of it so even though it's a lower growth number we still want to see them to achieve this higher than that 40% and further if we look at overall commercial Revenue growth and government revenue growth so this is including both International and US International obviously brought this down and weighed down the metrics one thing to note two is if they bring back the international graphs which they took out here it means it's something to highlight again and they may be expecting something in my opinion maybe for future quarters because management hasn't been shy about switching things around on these presentations as they should I believe personally you might as well highlight your strengths and you can always get that filing and then just do some simple math here to see what that International side is so overall Revenue growth is going to be the number I think a lot of people are going to highlight on yeah we can take the Nuance of international drag but the whole narrative now seems to be that growth is accelerating meaning probably just holding 30% constantly which is still amazing in my opinion and very hard to achieve anyways regularly but it may not be enough considering that is a stagnation of growth although the higher Baseline means they are bringing in more dollars technically on a nominal basis so for Q4 2023 they had $68 million so that's around $50 million more than the baseline from last time in Q3 meaning their 30% growth on top of 608 million means that they have to bring in around $790 million for Q4 2024 and we'll talk about the guidance here later on but obviously they didn't guide that high although we know about their constant sandbagging and it takes two to tango as well expenses and what you keep is important too pounder continues to tout their adjusted operating income representing a 38% margin this rate has been increasing over time as they've brought in more money which is the trend we want to see pounder needs to be able to maintain their growth activities without spending too much to capture these dollars and so far they been keeping up now the other big numbers are customer counts for me it didn't blow me out of the water last time but obviously there were other points that carried harder for the last quarter their first highlight is that one they always want to show us commercial count this has been growing quickly and year-over-year achiev 77% in the numbers of customers in this bucket we know this is where future growth is supposed to come from and expected by Wall Street and Retail Alik Panter needs to continue growing this us commercial customer account because it's touted as their most successful market so we want to see that pipeline start to get filled up at the top and hopefully Revenue figures will follow as long as the numbers reflect this hopefully this quential growth is higher than the 9% turning this around or showing an inflection point for Q4 2024 or even if it stays the same too I guess that's okay but we want to see this trend turn around a little bit faster and similar for the overall customer count here continuing to add on and breaking the 600 customer point which was a huge achievement in Q3 turning around this sequential 6% growth rate simar to the US commercial customer account would also be a nice surprise for Q4 earnings now the juicy deals next Q3 2024 they closed4 deals of at least $1 million 36 at least 5 million and 16 at least 10 million so continue to rack up deals like this although anecdotal in my opinion because these deals all have varying time periods it's still cool to see how they're able to get customers to sign on for millions of dollars it's not easy to do considering the commitment and investment these customers have to risk and probably expecting a return if you're spending this much money but probably like those boot camp numbers given earlier there's something underneath the hood that is convincing customers once they get their hands on the software with data that makes it all worth it now the treasure holder of $4.6 billion on their assets here ready to deployed or sitting in US Treasury Securities locking in a safe percentage while they determine the best course of action for this money now for me personally I still don't see a rush to just dump all this money and try to get growth out of it while rates are where they're at obviously in a very low low interest rate environment my tone will change but the flexibility this cash provides means they're able to take on a little bit more risk and test stuff out but maybe pounder is just that amazing of an efficiency machine where the additional cash doesn't even deploy here and make and drive growth but rather their culture can continue to maximize their current spending trajectory with outsize returns and continue to grow cash we'll see if management pivots considering they have the inside look and whatever pounder decides to do with this cash is best for shareholders we do know they may be partic participating in funding rounds one getting a lot of attention recently around Shield AI who we know they already working with pounder and are aligned with Mission wise and serving the US government so we may get a pleasant surprise once we get confirmation now guidance this is another make or break attention getter for earnings they've got revenue between 767 million or 771 million which if you remember what we talked about for Revenue that that's below 30% however we know Panter has been smashing their own guidance each and every earnings for the recent quarters so honestly everyone is expecting more than 30% myself included and this is where I know I stand with a lot of folks where I think it's crucial for them to continue this and growing this Top Line rate above 30% to justify the price that they're trading at today now no one is saying they have to achieve monstrous points today this very second but the trend needs to keep going in the right direction where I personally think just staying right at 30% might not be enough to keep their multiple but who knows now that was a quick review of last quarter's earnings going onto investation website if you need to review them yourself but what does this mean for Q4 2024 now we already touched on them sandbagging guidance and what I think they need to hit for Topline Revenue what I also think will be crucial for Q4 earnings is what is their guidance in general so not only hitting and beating their goals but continue to set Higher Goals going forward or at least higher than what's expected honestly now if we see an outsized growth rate in guidance exceeding 30% especially for full year 2025 I think everyone would be pleasantly surprised and will no doubt cause excitement however if there is a stagnation in guidance or maybe it's just not as large of growth that people expected even though we know they typically sandbag this could be a point of contention now for the margins their cash pile continues growing as well and other points that they reviewed I honestly think everyone is still really focus on the big high level numbers revenue and guidance because what's under the hood seems to be pretty consistent here now over several quarters where pounder is a good Steward of keeping expenses in line and keeping their profitability and on top of the numbers themselves paler management no doubt will spin things positively especially with the domestic US market around government guarding a lot of positive attention recently considering the new Administration that's in but it will be interesting to see what their exact thoughts are or if they'll even disclose that because we know they're a big military and US Government Administration contracts on the line all while The Narrative of cutting cost in the government is floating around so I'm just curious to know how they view this and probably see themselves on the winning side of things if I were a betting man at least so I'll be looking out for earnings on Monday lots of excitement going into the weekend closing out well into the 80s where pounder has a lot of growth and expectations priced in and maybe for good reason and really it only does take one jumbo unexpected contract or maybe a change in narrative to blow things up in either direction so excited to see Q4 earnings coming up curious to know your thoughts below and I'll see you in the next video
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