저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어가 미 육군 Titan 프로젝트 3단계 주계약사로 확정됐고, 최근 RFI에서 생산단계 비용이 최대 15억 달러로 제시됨. 다만 RFI는 RFP가 아니며 계획용이고 구매 확약이 아님. 5년(FY26~31) 기준 연 3억 달러 수준이며 하청업체 분배 고려 필요. 그럼에도 장기적으로 정부 수주 확대의 발판이 될 수 있다는 낙관적 시각. 상업 부문이 성장을 주도할 것이라는 의견도 제시.
다듬은 글
we've got big news for those following pounder closely but please tread carefully and honestly I think it's important to at least comb through the facts so far around this potential $1.5 billion being shared around now first I was just scrolling through X and came across goar's really eye-catching breaking news posts and I've shared some of his stuff before actually on previous videos where he's pretty quick at finding a lot of the government centered work so if you're interested go please give him a follow now take the time to read through the post if you'd like but you can also just go to the sam.gov website just so you know I'm referencing the direct source for the video but I think there are some big caveats a lot of people should at least understand before taking into everything at face value and definitely not trying to dilute or devalue the importance of this news but still the devil is in the details now just for the quick background on where paner is today at least for the Titan project the latest awarding of the $178 million was for phase three essentially cementing pounder as the prime who will be going forward as the Prime with the development of these vehicles this was essentially them versus RTX or formerly Ron where they competed in the previous two trial phases but paler came out on top the latest phase that they're in right now is still technically for development but paler is actually the sole winner as the prime for the project and running that and they are running this alongside a bunch of subcontractors especially since they need those Hardware aspects fulfilled and the most recent news about this is that there's been at least one vehicle delivered already to to an army base out in Washington and that's to probably go through some rigorous field testing and provide feedback to the team and so in a nutshell that's where we are today and they're really just trying to improve the vehicle and there are three major things to look out for and I'll Point those out throughout the documentation here but for reference just to show this is a Brands making new kind of RFI is the original publish date for this is August 15th 2024 so just a day ago and also note the original response date being requested is for September 4th 2024 so this is literally around the corner in about 2 and 1/2 Weeks as of this recording so it seems there are expectations around a pretty quick turnaround time at least to receive a response even though we and the public may not hear anything immediately at that point but it's still interesting to see how quick this is now in the description we've got some meaty stuff right at the Top This is for a RFI posting or request for information essentially where the government is looking to have responses from the vendors around whatever they're seeking for this specific project which is Titan production and it's important to note that this is blatantly pointed out this is not an RFP or request for proposal which anyone working in Corporate America knows this is where you're looking for companies to give you essentially the checklist you're asking for of requests to determine who should win your business and whatever you're looking for and to fill that so this is blatantly clear this is not an RFP and will be for planning purposes only and even not this is not a commitment implied or otherwise that a procurement action will be issued so it's very important this doesn't mean something will happen just because they did this RFI but they are seeking to get thoughts for the production continued updates and initial support of Titan and honestly I'm like 99% sure it makees sense just for pounder to put this together anyways because first it helps them figure out the economics essentially on their side behind delivering on this contract profitably in a substantial manner for if SL when this becomes a full-blown product but also on the government side who wants info on their end obviously for budgeting and political purposes honestly when it comes to prioritization and if it wasn't clear enough there's no money getting exchanged here and clearly the government doesn't want to show any expectations of money being at play here but this is standard stuff now we get these synopsis and honestly this isn't new information too for those following the project closely and shouldn't be a surprise to Panter either and the subcontractors but it's clearly spelled out here the real big reason for this is to scope out really the next phase of tiin once they get to that point it won't be an instant process especially since they are getting through those initial 10 prototypes which will most likely all be iterated on and throughout the whole phase but like anything once they found what they like or is good enough for a large scale rollout how will this actually be going out there and work especially on the cost end of things and read through the mission too if you haven't but essentially Titan is providing 21st century technology to the military and be a vehicle that's actually developed with a holistic perspective of hardware and software together and not one or the other being an afterthought or something slapped on and to add to the early look we are getting at at now their program status is at least planning out a fiscal year 2026 start of production phase so we've got some time here for any fruition of actually starting this then we get through some standard requests for the RFI response but here's where all the eyeballs are looking at first is the requested information and the scope which makes sense confirming this is for the production phase of Titan vehicles but the cost is ranging from $1 up to $1.5 billion so nothing is guaranteed here of course it's a range but it is a big clue at least from the government's perspective where they can see the costs of this production phase going now schedule-wise which some do and don't like this is fiscal year 2026 to 2031 so 5 years even at $1 1.5 billion total if you get all 100% is only 300 million a year and the biggest thing to remember too that I mentioned is that pounder is the Prime on this but there are plenty of subcontractors too in the mix one really notable is andil so the ratio of how much goes to who really is my best guess and I won't even attempt to figure out this even given how early and scant on details we are so some may see this 300 million a year and really get divided up pretty fast on a per year basis and down to a per quarter basis and that's even assuming the whole amount is even going to be required considering $1.5 billion is the max at least for this RFI so it's really important that the details are at least considered before running with the headlines and we do get more juicy details of showing from the government side they think this is around 94 Titan vehicles for this $1.5 billion 36 being Advanced where they get all the bells and whistles essentially while 58 are basic and they list a bunch of the other needs too like the hardware and software compatibility the level of security everything so I know we went through a lot but I think it's important to note the $1.5 billion is a sexy headline but really it may not be the most optimistic look and this is only an RFI so we weren't even at a point to say this is an RFP that pouncers up for grabs to win and sign of course now it would be nice if that was at the case but it looks like it's a bit too early to even consider that but maybe that's pessimistic considering the government is always slow and I think getting a sneak peek still of what's to come is still very encouraging and positive and something to look forward to it's just balancing this without getting too ahead of ourselves honestly in my own personal opinion at least now we won't get too in depth on this as well but also just recently noted Alex karp got showcased on the New York Times with a huge piece that you can read through it's quite long actually and it's detailed and honestly they get a lot of things right when it comes to Alex karp concerning the author was able to sit down and really get the chance to have him speak his mind and give his perspective now there's plenty of things to agree and disagree with of course and you know that's probably going to be different from every person but it's not going to be surprising at all for those who follow the company and the CEO closely but one really big thing to note though is kind of related to Titan and super broadly though just to warn you is this world Outlook and that the us is going to possibly find themselves in a three front war with China Iran and Russia the main adversaries essentially now not saying he wants this to happen or it's going to happen or anyone wants this to happen but at least from an investor perspective and someone who knows what paner does and the work they do and leading the charge for the Tian project it is kind of interesting being on the edge of technological development for defense is a pretty interesting place to be especially if you expect to find ourselves in the near future somewhere precarious like that now it really means his personal belief is set that we got to prepare for the worst where even nuclear deterrence doesn't seem to be enough at this point and really this pursuit of defending the west through a very strong offense and of course still having a good defense is necessary for survival it may sound a bit extreme but it doesn't take a genius to know that war is also one on the logistical end of things where if you're juggling three fronts things can get pretty complicated hence you want to leverage technology and just utilize the information you have at hand which is the point of Titan so not wanting to get too into the weeds we get all this interesting government business information out of poun here this weekend but honestly I still see the growth being driven by commercial because the lumpiness of these contracts and unpredictability can hit later than expected or even end up smaller especially if we get diluted amongst a bunch of subcontractors but hey it's still a great way to prove your value for more projects down the line for the government especially if we see a jumbo number like this but what are your thoughts still below and I'll see you in the next video
Comments 0