저자: PalantirResearch채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 1분기 실적 발표를 앞두고 핵심 지표를 점검. 영업이익·매출 성장률 관점에서 가이던스(1분기 6.12~6.16억달러, 전년비 16~17%)가 다소 보수적이라 우려를 표하며, 미국 상업부문 고객 수(총 497명, 500명 근접 실패)와 AIP 부트캠프 성과가 핵심 체크포인트라고 주장. 정부부문 성장 둔화와 국제 상업 부진도 짚음.
다듬은 글
crucial pounder earnings are coming out in just a week for q1 2024 and these are for financial results up to March 31st 2024 so will pound approve themselves once again they set their guidance low in my opinion last quarter but here's what to look out for for the latest results in increasing importance in my opinion now first from the latest earnings back in February Gap net income came in better than my original expectations with them still growing and expanding this above and beyond just being slightly positive with their Fifth Quarter in a row on the books already from last quarter we're looking to see continued expansion for their six quarter in a row of profitability at a gap basis note all I care about for this metric at least is that pter maintains profitability with more Focus still on the growth phase which I'll be touching on for Revenue later the only reason why this is important per se is because of S&P eligibility next we have top customers and this is still an interesting metric to me as well we just want to keep seeing more and more spending from all customers of course but still some may get concerned if the top customers are driving the majority of Revenue growth since those will level off at some points since their baselines are so huge but regardless we just want to see more overall growth alongside their overall Billings now we have also operating cash flow something I pay attention to closely poun is obviously in no danger of bankruptcy or even just taking on debt as seen on their balance sheet because they produce so much cash and this cash pile continues to grow to 3.7 billion where they are just continuing on and collecting interest on this treasury horde now I brought this up when covering earnings before but I still trust management to figure out what to do with this cash over time and it seems the FED is not in a a rush to cut interest rates if inflation stays fussy so in this case being conservative as long as you're still able to pull off growth in your business it is great but still remember a lot of this cash is crushed by stock-based compensation whereas a lot of people are on different sides where if it's worth motivating the top employees building their products but also on the flip side of also diluting us shareholders and finding that right balance now next is net dollar retention we hit 108% last quarter it at least stabilized from the previous 107% from that previous quarter there they continue to make this small ER and smaller as I pointed out in previous videos on their slides where it used to be showcased so prominently but has now fallen Into Obscurity from what I've seen as performance has not Thrive recently for this metric specifically but if they provide it for the upcoming earnings we'll see if this continues to hold hopefully now for Gap operating income this is the real scorecard for me profitability wise showing their businesses sustainability and continuation to grow responsibly while making money from their business itself and not just say relying on interest income and really I see this as the long-term metric to look out for if their business is growing in the way we want it to and not necessarily a grow at all cost Model A lot of earlier stage companies need to do so to get their next investor proving their products so no issues here from last quarter and I expect this to keep expanding as long as Topline growth comes in and management is responsible with operational expenses now onto the first make or break metrics in my opinion commercial Revenue which was excellent last quarter in my opinion they had 32% growth for overall commercial so this is combined with International commercial Revenue but breaking out the US commercial side is the real growth driver showing 70% year-over-year for the quarter so that is still mind-boggling to me and we still need to remind ourselves that means International commercial is dragging them down but if we see outperformance in US commercial growth which is where management has been concentrating on their efforts then we need to see a continuation of strength here not necessarily 70% but something still very very high to keep overall commercial healthy but if they can get some unexpected help with International commercial Revenue I'd be even more pleased but I'm not expecting it at all honestly B on the sentiment given by management over the last quarter now government revenue wise it's still not the bright side here from last quarter but maybe with some of the announcements we get at least a decent surprise here with q1 earnings overall from last earnings government came in at a small 11% year-over-year growth with US Government only at 6% so if this lumpiness is a bottoming at last quarter that would be nice but I wouldn't be surprised if we still see them struggling here even with the recent win like say the next Titan phase the payments are spread out there and it's still a Reliance on existing contracts to to continue but as I was covering with commercial if they do Stellar there I think investors will forgive any bad numbers here as long as we aren't seeing actual decline or negative change in quarterly Revenue so seeing the two sides of the story contributing to this how will this affect overall revenues growth and their approach with guidance so last quarter we hit that 20% quarterly growth rate which is a nice turnaround from the previous 17% so with guidance given by pounder I noted before that I like the full year much better than the q1 guidance but for q120 24 they're expecting $612 to $616 million this is only a 16 to 17% corly growth rate from $525 million my personal opinion is that this won't cut it even if they're aligned with expectations because this is showing a decline in growth rate and way below 20% now some may forgive it due to the q1 slow start of the year since we know signing contracts accelerates closer to the end of the year around Q4 but with quarterly comparisons and also the great things we keep hearing about the demand and AIP boot camps I'm not so sure if just hitting guidance will acceptable here so a lot of attention will be on this number as well as commercial Revenue just to see if that they can even exceed what they set out themselves now for guidance in general as well for the Q2 2024 numbers we're hoping that the expectations for management returns above 20% or something significantly higher of course the better and this is the same for also full year 2024 guidance which last quarter they gave the 2.65 2 to 2668 billion which is around a 19 to 20% full year growth rate from overall 2023 so if we can see any adjustment higher for full year Revenue then we are on track for above 20% but obviously none of this is guaranteed so if they keep it the same it won't necessarily hurt them but won't be awesome and any revisions downwards of course would be devastating but I'm not seeing a high chance of that at least based on pound Management's guidance to be typically in line or sandbagged now the most important and primary numbers I believe for everyone is looking out for this upcoming earnings is this customer count last time for only us commercial they had a 55% year-over-year growth rate with 22% in consecutive quarters this was much higher than expected when these came out before but that's only part of the story when looking at the overall customer account they barely missed the 500 total customers at 497 but I think this was forgiven considering they hit that 20% last quarterly growth in revenue and I think with the amount of Runway we've been given for AIP boot camps to play out Management's comments on its success as well as the recent PR and marketing from pounder themselves and others alike from the say article from Bloomberg basically saying that there's exponential demand I think if we don't see any outlier here in growth which is a predecessor for Revenue since customers that generate Revenue are counted here this is the biggest make or break risk to The Narrative of pounder but if we finally see the bump of successful boot camps then this basically confirms that the strategy is showing signs of working now the earnings call is what's going to happen as well we will always look out for nuggets and clues about the strategy I will not be surprised to hear from them continue to tout about a boot camps as long as they're working and from the clues we get in the media this is my expectations now with the latest AIP con as well they released AIP now so I believe they will probably try to push this considering their latest webinars and video demos have been highlighting the use cases on there and if they see this as a continued strategy this is probably one of the roads to scalability for them I see out of the box or almost out of the box ready for use cases of onboarding of existing customers as well as new customers and expanding their usage of pounder and maybe there's some customization needed so also alongside AIP boot camps and AIP now it won't be surprising to get some information maybe about certain clients or or areas of expansion that they're trying to do so that's different I know they mentioned running boot camps for government clients as well so if they're seeing anything promising there it would be nice rounding out their efforts outside of commercial just a little bit and then also geopolitically I won't be surprised to hear about their work with Ukraine or maybe even Israel depending on what they can tell and even if they keep it generalized around geopolitics I'll be keeping my ears open for a New France like East Asia it still continues to sound like the natural next step in their Military Work Not only for active conflicts like Israel and Ukraine that we know but also upcoming tensions with China and US allies in the region mainly I'd say Japan and South Korea but possibly the Philippines as well and then outside of these maybe we'll get a surprise from management that's hopefully positive from growth expectations or how they see the upcoming landscape for the business and more context around their numbers especially for the forward-looking guidance I'd rather not hear excuses for poor numbers if they perform poorly but hopefully if we can get a delivery of better than expected numbers and a good story on the drivers then that'd be nice but let me know your thoughts below and I'll see you in the next video
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