저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라는 로이터의 저가 모델 중단 보도 이후 흔들렸으며, 이를 수요 문제로 본다. 1분기 실적은 열차 충돌급으로 나빴고 저가형 3만달러 차량이 핵심인데 불확실하다. 단기 고난은 있으나 1년 내 저가차 출시를 믿고 매수 유지, 목표가 300달러(기본 시나리오). 마이크로소프트는 AI 수혜로 시총 4조달러 가능, 목표 500달러. 팔란티어·DB·구글도 긍정적이며 AI 강세장은 2025년까지 이어진다고 본다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the watch list I'm Nicole penales we've seen Tesla move about 10 bucks throughout the day um on breaking news from Reuters no the EV the lower model was going to be discontinued the strategy was changing and then Elon Musk came out and said Reuters is lying again you know what I can only talk to Dan Ives here Dan IES is with us of wed Bush Securities last week those deliveries came in and you said I'm paraphrasing they were disaster and that darker days were ahead unless Elon Musk made a reversal of some sort what's your interpretation of what happened here today not good I mean look obviously must denied it and that's the important thing but Nicole it just speaks to the broader worries right now in the Tesla Story I mean it was a train wreck 1q you need the low cost of sub $30,000 vehicle you know to really be announced going into the next 18 months and this is It's a fork in the road period I think he's able to navigate it but let's just be clear I mean if he just kind of you know dog ate the homework type excuses on Supply this is going to be some darker days look and they they said that it was the model two they were going to you not the model 3 um you know I I couldn't quite understand because Steve Wesley yesterday he said if I were talking to Dan if I were talking to Elon Musk today I would say get the cheaper model out now get it done something like that um is there going to be a cheaper model or not is there going to be a $225,000 model or not there's not an option in other words if they decided not to go that route it would be a disaster of Epic Proportions because that from a mass demand perspective in terms of cop between two waves that's the next wave from a lower cost vehicle and obviously you're going to have some other models come out and obviously you're seeing competition across the board and you can't just have these conference calls give new guidance and just say that it was a supply chain or factory issue I mean this is It's a demand problem that they're seeing and that's why the Stock's reacting like it like it should did you say it would be a disaster of Epic Proportions is that what you said yep well I mean it may be happening I mean by the end of the day we may actually hear that happens what do you do with your stock is the stock then valued completely differently in your eyes yeah Nicole I look I still believe over the next year and I'd be shocked if there's not a lower cost vehicle now look obviously Reuters you know report it I think the big focus is okay is there a pivot in China versus Us in Europe that maybe could be more of the story right in term but I Still Believe in Us in Europe sub $30,000 vehicle look for China the problem is you can't continue to have the death by a Thousand Cuts and that's right now what's playing out for Tesla in China yeah let me ask you this do you think there will be um a shift in strategy or or at least more focus on self-driving taxis that was something I read today look I mean that's much longer term I mean obviously Kathy and others talk about it but I mean you're going through a category five storm the near term so th this is do you believe do you believe that those are coming maybe I mean is that what differentiates Tesla from everything else look longer term down the road but that's like talking to a 5-year-old saying that they're going to be in the NBA so the so the point is like there's a lot that needs to happen that's different no that's different there that's different that's a long shot now and then okay all right so you're not a believer of that right now in a big way I think is a a good way to sum that up your target Nicole I'd also Nicole I'd also say at this moment investors need to get handheld through the one you debacle and how you going to turn this around looking out four or five years from now that in $4 get you a coup of coffee wow all right look Tesla's at 164 today what are you telling people to do on that stock look we're we're continue to buy because I believe that they're going to be able to navigate through this you're going to get to ultimately price stabilization demand will start increase as we go into the second half of the Year China will start to turn around and we'll be looking you know over 2 million units and into next year hopefully something closer at 2.3 2.4 million but a lot of hard work ahead and it's a White Knuckle period and that's and the stocks properly reflecting that in the near term all right so 2.4 million vehicles and um the price Target did you say above 200 is that base cases 300 300 okay let's move on because I know you have a lot to say about Microsoft today and um I want to hear about this iPhone moment what does this mean for Microsoft which has been great to its shareholders no doubt yeah look I mean when I look at the AI Revolution I think for Microsoft to an iPhone moment I mean in terms of what's happening on co-pilot on Azure I think this is a get out the popcorn moment heading into Microsoft earnings I think it's it's going to be robust numbers based on everything we're seeing and I think we sit here a year from now and we're looking at a $4 trillion Mark cap for Microsoft $4 trillion do market cap so right now it's at 424 your target is at or above what level 500 yeah 500 yeah I mean you and I have talked about paler and zaler and so many other names what else is on your radar and maybe even with AI um as the potential real winners in your mind look domessy of AI pound tier I think that continues to be the best Pure Play AI name out there DB is another one that we're very bullish on and then look when I look at Google I think from large cap that might have some of the best upside potential that we see going into earnings given what we see on digital advertising and the cloud that could add $3 $40 per share are you waiting for some great things out of the worldwide developers conference for Apple well I think that's where cook is going to unveil the AI strategy in terms of the what I the star the AI App Store and this is going to be so important as AI now comes to the Apple ecosystem and I think this is going to be a watershed moment for apple as AI now comes to the golden install base which is why look I obviously China numbers have been soft in the near term but Nicole me and You' have talked for many years I don't view it quarter by quarter I view where is of 69 12 18 months from now I this Stock's massively higher from here we have a 250 PT oh 250 CU right now it's at 169 I mean so that you're saying these are some great opportunities that are happening here um what about these names like Nvidia Netflix any other ones that you want to chime in on so I love to hear what you video look the The Godfather of AI Jensen will continue to outperform I mean you know we just got back from Asia checks continue to be robust from an AI perspective this is a 1995 moment not a 1999 moment I believe this Tech bull market has begun and it will continue going into the next what we believe 2025 in your mind do you do collaborations and say I wish Elon Musk could this or I mean you must come up with your own sort of ideas in your you cook some stuff up in your brain I mean what would you love to say well I wish I mean if I wish I wish you actually had an adult in the room on like on the conference call right I think ever since Zach left it's been a big issue but I mean for for for Tesla my big issue is a buyback and ultimately the distractions that we've seen with musk I think that's contributed 30% to the demander I'm not saying it's all of it but you cannot dismiss those distractions and say it's nothing yeah Dan it's great to see you thank you always love having you on the show appreciate it yeah Dan IES at W bush Securities thank you for joining us e
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