저자: The Economic Diary · 외국인
다듬은 글
my overpriced assets you get a guarantee of a low return what you don't get is the guarantee of being wiped out next week my belief is that if you're trying to time the breaking of a bubble the value is not that important all of them are over this time is like no other these are the words coming from every Economist and not only the economists but also the presidents and Prime Ministers of the growing countries Joe Biden Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have declared this decade the most difficult in history and for good reasons today we have reached a point where the well-established economic order is about to collapse however this collapse started years ago the countries that were earlier maintaining this order are today standing in the crew of countries prone to the worst economic fall but what is going to happen What unprecedented has happened that never happened before Jeremy Grantham co-founder and chief strategist of Grantham mayo and Van otterlu a boston-based asset management firm said that we are in a bubble we never had in history and soon perhaps within a few days this bubble will burst what does he mean by that and how much time have we got let's listen to Jeremy Grantham who has predicted a great fall that will manifest itself within a few days watch the video Until the End so as not to miss any important part of the prediction let's get started Jeremy Grantham says that we are in the biggest bubble a bubble we have never been in history he said that during a bubble no matter where the prices stand investors buy assets and commodities and expect the prices to go up interestingly Grantham explains the psychology of every investor which you can relate to very easily he says that if you invest in an asset or stock at a higher price but still in the future you get a higher return your trust in the market increases now what you actually do is see how great the market is no matter how elevated the prices are and you invest in the assets again however the prices are actually at elevated levels that's a sign of a major collapse when the price reaches an abnormal level a collapse is inevitable that's what we call a bubble because the market is overvalued prices of Commodities are not only higher but abnormally higher however investors don't consider it since a bubble ensures that most investors are under the impression that the market is going great sufficient investors and their Capital are in the market a chain of thought process starts with a price increase compels you to invest more and more at elevated prices now imagine that the price of a stock is continuously going up no matter how exceptional the company stock is there is a limit Beyond which the price per share should not exceed however during a bubble no one sees the prices listen to what Jeremy Grantham said it's a very good economic situation and you merely extrapolate it into the future and if you do that and it actually occurred the market would be worth very high multiples of book and earnings and so on it's a very simple game believe in today's perfect conditions and assume unrealistically as it turns out that it will go on forever if you did that today and you extrapolated today's conditions which are miserable you would of course have the very opposite of the bubble so that makes it unique we're in the highest five percent of PES and we're in the lowest five percent of economic conditions today so there's never been anything like that in history and why has it happened we know the trouble is of course coveted and we know the push on stock prices is a combination of central banks Federal Reserve and fiscal spending and it's Global so we have never had such a global agreement that every government is looking to spend and every government is looking for their Central Bank to accommodate this is an enormous push and what we discovered long ago is how effective that is at moving stock prices it's as if every dollar that is not absorbed by the real world flows through line of least resistance flows through into asset pricing that is what is happening it's a very impressive struggle between the real world of productivity and employment and GDP and the paper world of PE ratios and house prices pushed by easy credit low interest rates of course being key and just plentiful supplies of money flapping around to those people who are likely to buy houses and stocks it is not necessarily the case at the small business level at all so this is not necessarily terrific for the real broad economy but it is clearly terrific for the stock market and the question is does the real world eventually catch up and since this is novel economy just like the novel virus you can't be quite as certain as you could in Prior bubbles I described our confidence in Prior Bubbles as near yes sir all of those things of course occurred and you can't be that certain this time because the forces are unique it's going to make life more intellectually interesting however my bet would be of course that reality will catch up with the high PES when you buy overpriced assets you get a guarantee of a low return what you don't get is a guarantee of being wiped out next week my belief is that if you're trying to time the breaking of a bubble the value is not that important all of them are overpriced and whether they're overpriced at 25 times earnings or 35 times earnings or in Japan at 65 times earnings it's very difficult to work out in any sort of academic way since you're dealing with craziness where it's going to Peak I much prefer to look for signs of truly crazy behavior because every bubble that really crashed and broke in a spectacular way which most of them did was preceded by craziness by legendary stories this was notably lacking as I wrote and talked about over the years of the 10-year bull market it has not been lacking really in this Valley of the coveted low we have seen not only a terrific rate of acceleration in the price rise double the normal bull market which is characteristic that acceleration is characteristic at the late stage bubble but we've also seen wonderful craziness the Sparks which are promised to use your money give me your money and trust me I'll do something useful with it there's a real Echo of the south sea bubble where we have such a spectacular opportunity we can't reveal what the purpose of your money is yet and they got lots of money and ran off with it I'm not saying the spikes will run up with your money but I am saying it's a real testimonial to the speculative nature buying hurts a bankrupt company and having it go up four five six times in a real hurry and so on and so on you read about your own having a Tesla quadruple I own a Tesla It's a Wonderful car I think they're spectacularly interesting company but are they four times the company they were before covered I don't think so these stories are everywhere and they're what you need before a bubble breaks and we saw them in early 2000 and late 99 and we saw them in late 1929 before the crash we saw them in Japan and here we are again so I think this is an indicator not a certainty but a strong possibility that we are quite close to the bubble breaking in terms of psychology perhaps a matter of weeks or months not years therefore investors start to buy assets at elevated prices if earlier an investor had not bought the share of one hundred dollars but today it's a two hundred dollars that they will buy it at two hundred dollars the reason is that the investors expect that since the stock broke the resistance level of one hundred dollars it will go even above two hundred dollars Jeremy Grantham says that today every asset and commodity in the market is being traded at an elevated price all assets are overvalued and bought and sold at these overvalue prices now that someone is selling those assets Perhaps it is doing good because he is getting his Capital back he is staying away from the Mayhem that will occur soon however those entering the market at this level will be the victims of the collapse and will pay for the great loss Jeremy Grantham said investors should see the stock housing and every industry are overvalued no doubt this happened in the past however this time is different investors never bought assets at these elevated prices as they are buying now but why they expect that the future price will go up further that's the nature of the market and that's the psychology of an investor when he gets abnormal profits however there is a market rule an asset cannot go beyond a certain price imagine that you bought one hundred thousand dollars worth of stocks at one hundred and twenty dollars per stock price you started buying and selling stocks when the stock was at twenty dollars the stock has already increased its price by six hundred percent or six times however if you still decide to buy the stocks so the price can go to one hundred and fifty dollars the next time you are becoming part of the Mayhem and that's the story of only investors governments authorities and whole countries are feeling the pain due to the economic declines and everyone is seeing the results prices of energy have increased dramatically while inflation is breaking records this further makes the public War prone to bursts within a few days instead of months and years and this has been a part of history when you keep the market deciding its own Road it ends up going toward the high prices that result in Market collapse prices cannot stay longer at Heights and thus the bubble bursts this moment is so important because Industries are being overvalued not only in the US but in the entire world if any country's Market collapses every other country which is directly or indirectly attached will also see the effects it will be like the domino effect where the country's economies will fall like dominoes that's why this time is so important and as Jeremy Grantham said perhaps we're just a few days away from this Mayhem listen to what Grantham said now the prices of assets are 25 times higher than the earnings or even 35 times higher than the earnings even some are 65 times higher than their earnings which shows how unprecedented the market is today but why are we scared about what's coming well since a gigantic bubble is its creation it means that at any time the prices of the assets can start to decline not only will they decline but they will collapse because the bubble will burst suddenly the overvalued assets would have their prices go to the lowest possible levels and the investors would be in pain the fed or no other central bank takes care of this because they aren't the ones who cause the bubble the market itself reached a point where the collapse was the only solution and this has been a part of history when you keep the market deciding its own Road it ends up going toward the high prices that result in Market collapse prices cannot stay longer at Heights and thus the bubble bursts this moment is so important because Industries are being overvalued not only in the U.S but in the entire world if any country's Market collapses every other country which is directly or indirectly attached will also see the effects it will be like the domino effect where the country's economies will fall like dominoes that's why this time is so important and as Jeremy Grantham said perhaps we're just a few days away from this Mayhem listen to what Grantham said really the FED wins many more rounds than we have but in the end we've had a knockout In the End the Fed has not been able to keep the tech bubble going indefinitely it sent it over the 21 times earnings of 1929 and send it up to 35 but it couldn't go on indefinitely even Japan that went to 65 the price they paid when you finally knocked it out was here we are 31 years later not even faintly close to the high of 1989.
if you go into their real estate market which was an even bigger bubble I think the biggest bubble including the sassy bubble ever for tulips they went down for 30 years and now they're bottoming out maybe but they're bottoming out in Central City prices at a quarter of where they came from the land under the empress Palace in 1989-90 was indeed worth the state of California to give you some idea we spent a day or two checking it out it really was true and the price you pay for that is you could be 50 years later and still not back to that level again I would say don't fight the FED if you're short-term player but if you're a long-term player you have to be prepared to fight the FED on occasions as long as inflation is not really Gathering State when you find yourself facing a slowing global economy you have to kick it and it needs massive government stimulus on a sustained basis a few years ago I debated Jim Grant who called me an apostate amongst Valley managers or hedging about this time is different I maintain that the former dangerous words this time is different should be replaced by the five most dangerous Words which is this time is never different that is a very dangerous idea to think that you can never have important permanent changes and I think almost everything has changed since 2000 so the certainties that we used to have no longer exist but that was five years ago that was before the most massive move against value on any way you care to measure it now we're off the scale so I don't think a value is as dependable and useful a weapon as it was for for 70 years prior to 2000 but I think it's a very handy weapon when you push the parameters so far that it hits historical lows against growth stocks that we may not snap back the 120 I would have calculated 20 years ago but we are going to have a very big reversal in favor of value stock sooner or later I think we can be pretty safe about that and one of the things comes down to the nature of the facts I don't recommend necessarily going short but I do recommend owning as few U.S equities as you can face emerging equities emerging markets are not only at an unprecedented low relative but they are actually quite cheap absolutely compared to the US on their own and who are they they're China who is going to represent according to the World Bank over 30 percent of the entire world's growth over the next 20 years in India which is going to be an increasingly important player and then you have the Brazil and so on collectively they are much the bigger right now of the global GDP these things move very fast I think about on Emerging Markets is really betting the future against the past and the only thing that makes life interesting outside emerging are the Fangs intellectually interesting but when they've gone up 10 times in a hurry you have to say it's intellectually more interesting than it is financially interesting and the reason I recommend not going short shorting is a desperately difficult game you can never be certain that they don't that the fangs and the growth stocks put in one last push that will shake you loose you simply will not be able to take the pain as a short sale government spending done correctly very good for the economy very good for workers but in the U.S have not had a real increase per hour work since the mid-1970s can you believe where even Dopey Europe has more than doubled in China and Vietnam has more than 10 people than so on it is a bit of a pickle my advice really quite simple you emphasize Emerging Markets you de-emphasize the us if you have to own the US you go for deep value I did not say that three years ago five years ago but if I had to choose between doing that and avoiding the US entirely I would do the latter you only need one big asset class by the way to get rich Emerging Markets as I said is way over half of the global GDP it is growing far faster and because of eyes of China it's guaranteed to do that it's going to have a much better growth rate this year under stress much better than the GDP growth of the development and it's got 26 countries it covers every industry you would want why would you be moaning and groaning when you have such what do you think can we see Mayhem within 21 days Jeremy Grantham is a chief strategist who knows the market more than we do and he really is declaring that this time the stakes are high and the situation is haunting tell us do you think the world economy and especially the U.S economy is safe from all this or are you also seeing things worsening in prices reaching their highest levels to collapse within a few days ]
Comments 0