저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Tesla 콜옵션 단기 트레이드로 약 50만 달러 수익 실현을 언급하며 코스 쿠폰 홍보. 이번 주 AMD 실적·ECI·FOMC 주목. 애틀랜타 연은 GDP나우 3.9%로 경기 견조, 실적은 예상보다 양호하다고 평가하며 현금 비중을 두고 딥 매수 기회를 노리겠다는 입장. 테슬라는 중국 FSD 라이선스 호재 있으나 AI 투자 확대(연 100억 달러 언급)와 자본 지출 증가로 잉여현금흐름 우려 제기. 미국 10년물 금리 2.44% 부근 안정, 인플레이션 브레이크이븐 하락 언급. 하우스해크 부동산 상품 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
massive Catalyst we got to talk about this week and holy smokes congratulations to those of you who went in on those Tesla calls with me on Friday uh my butt was hurting on Friday because I was buying the dip on these suckers and on Friday the stock was let's just say volatile but it gave me some really cheap entries on some Tesla call options short-term Tesla call options I was like 100k deep on these and they turned into a 500K profit this morning and I'm like it's probably going to keep going up but I'm going to take that profit right now I can always open another trade so wow congratulations to the course members who are part of that if you want to be part of the course remember coupon code expires tomorrow April 30th uh stocks and psychology money group just go to meetkevin.com you get all my trade alerts I don't promise you're always going to win but I'm just transparent with my ideas and my trades and take it from there if you got questions email at staff atme kevin.com so reminder because I tax lost harvested not only did I avoid the potential down if Tesla had missed on earnings but I also am not going to be paying taxes on that trade or quite a few of the other gains what happened this morning and what Catalyst to expect well obviously we've got earnings week uh this week we've got AMD pay attention to AMD that sucker has been trading down for a long time uh I you know and I know AI has certain certainly come off of its BB but let's see if AI uh can impress tomorrow with AMD so I'm watching AMD tomorrow is ECI I'm not actually worried about that that's the employment cost cost index report q1 uh survey says 1% the FED watches that pretty closely obviously we got the FED meeting on Wednesday I'm not so worried about q1 I'm actually more worried about Q2 because of what that's going to say for wage growth because that's when California's wage increase affected or went into effect in Q2 April 1st and so you're really not going to get an ECI move in my opinion until the second quarter that could potentially be bad for the FED uh and I don't think jpow is going to jpow us uh this week mostly because I think JP is in this position of hey we're in a good place with monetary policy yeah we've had a little bit warmer data but we expected bumps and the economy is holding up now I know we're definitely seeing some transition and joblessness uh but those numbers aren't really being represented because they're so offset by gains and Retail Hospitality uh and um government and Healthcare employment but uh and I know I do know there's some pain though in tacking layoffs in certain sectors of the economy which frustrates a lot of people but one thing that should be really frustrating is what's going on with the Atlanta fed real GDP now holy smokes have you seen what it did so remember the q1 estimates came in last week at 1.6% and everybody's like stagflation myself included I'm like that's a stagflationary report I'm like but but that was driven down by a lack of inventory buildup and exports companies aren't building up inventory right now because you don't need to we're not going into this covid situation where you need this massive Supply I think we're going to go back to Justin time inventory because it's going to help companies EPS uh and and uh helps prevent inventory obsolesence which is really what hurt a company a lot like ubiquity but you look at like the Atlanta fed real GDP Index right now this sucker is at 3.9% GDP is almost at 3.9% per the Atlanta GDP now index just crazy uh so now I'm cash right now well I'm not all cash right now I've got a good chunk of cash right now but from what I'm getting in these earnings reports it might make sense to start finding dips and allocating to dips uh because the the bad news is coming in less bad than expected which is very exciting to me uh so that creates some opportunities to now buy certain stocks lower like I was trimming Nvidia you know in the 900s uh and and now we're at eight uh something so you know it's not a huge discount be nice to see a little bit more there but uh let's take a look at this I want you to see this just a quick couple updates here uh this is a little personal but I just want to say uh look at this look at this these children you may have already seen the post that's summer right there she is home it's bittersweet because I can't be there with her uh she went through absolute hell that's Jay Violet and summer these are twins same age twins identical twins and you can see her coloring is not that good you know she's gone through some serious trauma uh I wish I could be there with them I'm doing the house hack Road Show we've got uh Toronto today uh Denver today uh Chicago today then tomorrow we have Austin Dallas Houston uh you know it's it's um medical problems are are like hellish and so I just want to say my heart goes out to everybody uh who goes through this there's just there's nothing you can do other than have faith uh and it's it's really really hard I do want to say shout out to uh here's a picture for or it's a little video clip but I won't play it it's a teer bro this was us at the T bro airport house investors over here I guess I could actually just play uh you can kind of see it sort of move around here but anyway um uh thank you for coming out to the road show this was really cool T bro folks here really fun house act 2024 cheer there um hope to see you there fundraising deadlines obviously May 1st for that day after that coupon expires but uh as far as my positioning just want to be clear the uh the only shorts uh that I have are these it's what I'm wearing right now sorry I wear I like wearing short shorts they're really comfortable but uh yeah look this is um uh this this GDP growth we have to be real about it's going to probably lead to continued growth in in earnings at companies and quite frankly delaying a recession at some point there will be a recession we all know that but the reality is these earnings are good I've been saying that for many days now these earnings are good and again well I'm not always perfect I try my best to just be transparent these earnings are good this is not bad what we've been getting I think this week 20% of the S&P 500 reports we're going to get more of this mostly good data we'll see uh but I'm looking every single day and I'm reading these earnings calls on a daily basis and I'm just not seeing the pain in the earnings calls yet which again that's optimistic not only is that optimistic but this GDP skyrocketing I don't think it's going to lead jpw to go put pow uh to where he punches Us in the face and says we got to raise rates I do not see that happening inflation break evens are coming down again they were skyrocketing that made me very nervous they're back down again we're at about um 2.44 right now which is down quite a bit uh and the 10e is sitting you know stable actually today to to down two basis points so you know we're still obviously in inverted yield curve territory so there's still some you know issues in the economy but right now at least in the near term we we may have had a dippy dudla here uh that that might start meriting some more by the dipping so that's what I'm going to be paying attention to very very closely is where can I get some buy the dip opportunities now I do want to talk Tesla so let's touch Tesla uh Tesla this buo agreement I'm I'm like I'm excited about it but I'm a little torn let me explain I'm really excited that this means we could get FSD Licensing in in China so we could get revenues from there that should show the rest of the world that if China's cool with our FSD that maybe the rest of the world should be cool with our FSD and believe in the autonomy that Tesla is investing in but I want to be clear Elon said this weekend that they're going to be investing1 billion into artificial intelligence this year that was not on my bingo card that is that is not how I've been underwriting Tesla that is way more capex uh in their earnings call mind you in their earnings call and I'm I'm bullish on like don't worry don't mind you like let me be clear I'm bullish on FSD but you know I I don't think it's going to be Robo taxi as soon as people think and I want you to see this snippet from the earnings call so the earnings call here says we had negative free cash flow of 2.5 billion in the first quarter uh the primary driver of this was an increase in inventory from a mismatch in builds and deliveries and as discussed before our elevated capex across various in various initiatives including AI compute we expect inventory builds to the inventory build problem to reverse in the second quarter and free cash flow turn positive again Elon also says yes I think we can be free cash flow positive meaningfully that's great but if if you were negative $2.5 billion of free cash flow on q1 and now you're saying you're going to spend a total of10 billion this year on AI did did you you know like H how so like I'm confused about that I'm I'm a little torn on that I'm like how how are you going to be free cash flow positive with with $10 billion of AR SP I I'm not sure about that I'm a little torn on that I think there's some cognitive dissidence there on on hopium and expectations so I'm I'm that's something I have to analyze I I'd like to hear what you think in the comments but I'm like H when I saw that I'm like what now obviously we got that good news with with China here but but I think it is offset by a risk factor uh that I think some of the Tesla Ultra bulls will ignore but I don't think it's it merits ignoring that and remember we didn't actually like nothing has changed for FSD uh it's just now going to be available in more areas if anything which is good there is another risk though consider this Buu licensing the mapping data potentially also means licensing the camera data which you realize there's this risk that when they have this mapping data they're going to be in a potential position to say uh now we're going to take all this data and use our black market h100s or whatever and we're going to come up with our own neural Nets to have full self driving because now you're giving us all the data just saying I'm not sure but there's I don't know the all the details of the buo agreement but I'm a little nervous about that that if Tesla's handing over all the camera data it's giving China a massive win uh certainly I would expect that camera data would only be in China otherwise obviously the Biden Administration would freak out and have a heart attack not that they already like Elon anyway uh but they should you know they should he is he is doing the most for climate change than more for climate change than anyone else I I could think of but anyway whatever okay so so that's Tesla that's GDP that's ECI not worried about ECI tomorrow optimistic on earnings the earnings have been good not worried about GDP I'm still a little cash heavy I I think that's going to create Bu The Dip opportunities for me over the next you know month or two uh and so you're going to see me slowly deploying and uh I I I don't need to be rash I don't need to Rush this but um thank you uh thank you so much for being here I I do want to say uh those of you who are investing in house hack uh or are considering investing in house hack read the PPM but something to know about house Haack is we are we are going to build uh what I believe will be uh a an M1 Finance Style version of investing in real estate which I'm very excited about or Robin Hood of real estate you know think about pies where you can invest in you know know uh real estate that's you know in red States that's in blue States that's uh you know commercial real estate that's that are short-term rentals long-term rentals whatever we'll have all of that um um I think that's very exciting so um stay tuned for that learn more over at house Haack uh.com 2024 again we have a deadline on Wednesday and I'm sorry about that we just have a big foreclosure coming up on May 6th and uh while we could finance that foreclosure deal we would have to forego another deal that we're doing so we're kind of like picking between the two and we'd like to buy both of them uh and so right now we're just operating on a cash basis so that's why there's a little bit of a of a rush there but anyway uh we do have a coupon code expiring as well tomorrow in the stocks and psychology of money group make sure you check that out if you have questions or need to bundle up email us at staff ATM kevin.com uh I'm going to play a little clip here of uh some of the things people were saying this morning in the stock market open live stream it's pretty incredible uh again no guarantees we can pull off trades like that all the time I just trade ideas you know you could join you could lose money I want to be very clear about that I make mistakes okay I'm not perfect but um check that out price will go up and uh we continue to add more value and we do thos quite frankly with the exception of uh days when when I'm traveling on the East Coast like today because I got to get to the airport I'm already late for my own flight I got to get to Toronto and get through C so thank you for being here I'll see youall soon I love you all thank you goodbye says Made 4K let's go congratulations good job Kevin I just ripped 20K from that trade thank you congratulations holy crap uh I made 50k thank you Kevin holy dude yes this is like the best day ever uh damn 6K on that Tesla trade thanks so much congratulations holy smokes good job y'all uh good good good good job 5K thanks to Kevin holy SP up $44,000 holy crap good job somebody here says I made $25 good job uh I made a 100 I'm at 100K no way Big Rob holy crap how dare you be human yeah I made 9k on that trade made a 7K profit I made $773,000 11k trade here made 20K holy oh I'm so happy this is so cool congratulations everyone that is so freaking fun um 26k uh 10K 11k on that Tesla call made 2K on the call made 10K 8600 made 30k uh I made 3K made 22k made 20K 6K over here 2K over here holy smokes up 20K bagged 4K made 7K $250,000 Kyle holy crap 227 Anthony oh my gosh y'all had like half the position I had you guys got balls um made 30k on that trade damn this is amazing congratulations y'all uh you went you went to the uh five oh you were on the five you stayed on the 53 calls you dirty good job congratulations uh bro you just made me $100,000 oh my God I think I need to go take a vacation 22k profit 405k 16k oh my God somebody said no you didn't stop it somebody says I made 5.5 million off no you didn't stop uh made 9k made 4K 5K made 5K wow wow this is amazing good job y'all I gez Lord it's almost 69k somebody says I made 1.2 million on it oh my God
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