저자: Kevin · 외국인
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선거 전 불확실성이 가장 커서 헤지가 유리하다고 주장. 선거 후에는 불확실성이 줄어드는 경향이 있다고 봄. 개인은 가치 제공과 기술 향상으로 소득을 늘리는 것이 최우선 헤지라고 강조. 포트폴리오 현금 비중 확대, 콜옵션 활용, 실적 발표 전 일시적 현금화 및 세금 손실 수확(tax loss harvest) 등을 제안. 본인 교육 콘텐츠와 강좌 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
should you hedge your portfolio going into the Trump versus Biden election the answer to that in my opinion as broad advice is yes absolutely but what usually happens after elections is actually generally surprisingly benign so in English let's go through this generally leading up to an election uncertainties Mount that either the continuation of an Administration or a shift to a new Administration whether it's Trump or Biden is going to lead to massive change after their beginning the beginning of their term usually you have your election and then people believe rapid changes are going to take place and the economy is going to take rapid turns very very quickly based on which person is elected president as companies decide whether or not to hire based on which person became elected as president I personally have found ironically the opposite to be true that most of the uncertainty of an election actually happens before the election and that by the time an election actually occurs companies and people are able to make decisions about the future in what they believe is a more certain way and unless we're already in a recession at that point usually it's easier for companies to hire and to make decisions and to plan because they know or at least they expect they know what kind of administration they're going to be up against so let me simplify that and then let's talk about some strategies so uh oh and and quick note I'm in uh Florida to we've got uh Miami right now Orlando uh and Tampa coming up and then we're uh we've got Boston New York uh Toronto Chicago Denver bunch more locations coming oh Atlanta's in there as well well for our house hack Road Show see house hack so if you haven't gone yet to house hack.com click the little investor Tab and then press the uh come to our road show button to RSVP consider doing that okay so to put that simply that means I think the roughest time period to invest is actually going to be before the election not afterwards now don't give me wrong I understand that there are a lot of uh politically divisive issues uh and this video isn't about that this video isn't about saying oh the stock markets get a moon if we get the same president or a different president or or whatever excuse me instead what this video is is that usually before the election people are most fearful about what could be whether you have the same president or a change of the Guard different president and so usually if you get more Market tumult before the election rather rather than after it makes sense for people to do something known as hedging hedging doesn't have to be like you're operating a hedge fund although it can be you some people will take advantage of complex strategies like they will buy uh put options they'll short stocks uh they'll buy really out of the money but all that stuff is very very complicated uh for a lot of folks and I think the simplest thing to think about between now and the election is what can you do to make more money yourself what can you do to set yourself up not rely on anybody else to make you more money what can you do to set yourself up to make sure you have more money how are you providing more value to your community or to your employer uh to make sure that either you're getting paid more by providing more value or you're providing more value in the hopes of getting paid more at some point in the future I know a lot of times people feel like oh I'm working my ass off of my job uh and I feel like my boss doesn't recognize it and that that creates frustration and in fact it actually often turns into this sort of you owe me attitude like I worked so hard for you you owe me more money the reality is generally the opposite is true in America we're sort of in this environment where you have to push yourself as frustrating as it is to work harder make more and then if you're not recognized that the current place of employment you have or the current business or whatever then then you take these skill set that's that you've grown and you go to another place where now you have more experience you have more licenses you know maybe you became a lender a CPA you let's say you're doing bookkeeping now and you became a CPA or you're working at a brokerage as an assistant and then you go get your Series 7 or your 14 your 24 your 27 these are hard things to graduate up to or maybe you're a realtor's assistant today and then you become a real estate agent uh or you become an investment banker by getting IB license which is I think one of the series 7s or whatever uh or you go from pargal to attorney by going to like all of those are the level up things that let you make your own reality and see I'm a big fan of if it's meant to be it'll happen but I'm also a really big fan of if it's meant to be it's up to me so yeah sometimes that just means much like in video games you got to put the freaking grind in now the cool thing about video games is when you put the grind in you know like eventually you're going to get to that new piece of armor or that new level The Experience bar grows life isn't as linear as that but I personally have always treated it as if it was and it's always ended up being true I'm not saying that there aren't setbacks or people go through I mean like I've had massive setbacks as well but how do you hedge going into uncertain times number one if it's meant to be it's up to me cash in increase your income potential to make sure you're making as much money as possible uh and one of the ways you do that is you provide more value so for example and then I'm going to get into like portfolio construction uh as a financial adviser but not as personalized Financial advice so I uh create educational content on the Internet it's all listed over at meetkevin.com like I have an inperson event in June or I've got you know stocks and psychology a money course where uh we give Buy sell alerts for trading for people who like trading but there are so many actual amazing money lessons in those courses or zero to millionaire real estate investing those have a coupon expiring this Tuesday by the way meet kevin.com H my goal is always how can I provide more value there give more value in my course member live streams give more value to the different types of people some people come for the lectur some come for Traders some come for the course member lives what can I do to make sure everybody's always getting more value uh and that way I'm providing more of a service how can I continue to make more YouTube videos and provide more value what can I do to make myself have the licenses that I need that I can expand my business and create a stock brokerage or real estate uh company that you know I think will will be the real estate company of real estate companies okay very excited about it obviously which is good to have a passion for what you're doing as well so providing more value number one if it's meant to be it's up to me number two though is Cash increasing cash positions in a portfolio in uncertain times makes a lot of sense a lot of people get frustrated by this idea because they think oh well you know then I'm going to miss out on stock in this that or whatever uh I've gone into a substantial cash position over the last about two months here I really started at the beginning of about March uh and so for example uh there are uh certain stocks or ETFs or whatever that uh you know I've I've been very exposed to uh and uh both those stocks or ETFs uh have have basically transitioned into substantial cash positions this is an advertisement for any kind of ETF but for example let's say an ETF happened to have a 40% cash position there's a reason for that there's there's a way that now that ETF is positioned to really buy the dip uh and and minimize downside while hopefully trying to maximize upside now yes there is an element to that of timing the market but when Market signals are suggesting elevated levels of uncertainty that may continue it makes sense to reduce your exposure to an from an all-in to a little bit more of a cash basis that is one of the easiest ways to hedge you something else that you can do is let's say you had I'll just make up a number here let's say you had uh $100,000 in a stock before and now you have $5,000 in that stock you might take another $5,000 and buy a one-year call option or a six-month call option on that so that way hopefully if the stock moves rapidly and quickly you don't sort of get left behind on gains because you're paying for that option to upside hedge yourself see sometimes hedging is just a matter of sitting on the sidelines and being ready to move in with cash I'll give you an example here with Tesla see when Tesla earnings happened there was a real risk that margins for that company would drop to somewhere around 14% there was a real risk and possibility of that and that would have taken that stock from where it was at the time of earnings of about 140 probably down to 120 or down to 101 that's very risky so it's almost better to have been unexposed for earnings been uh proven that okay we have avoided the worst case potential and then move back in without missing out on any potential gains while also potentially taking advantage of a tax loss Harvest uh that's one of the benefits of potentially going a little bit to cash for a 30-day period especially in uncertain times setting yourself up uh if you have some tax losses to take advantage of some for the rest of the year since I personally think when most people do it in December or November the market could actually be a little bit more euphoric and you might not have as much of an opportunity that's just my belief I could be totally wrong but let's think about this in summation here number one increase your cash income in uncertain times number two think of the election as usually a turning point that actually removes uncertainty rather than creates more uncertainty before the election you have the uncertainty of both presidencies after the election you only have the uncertainty of one presidency then consider in a portfolio if you're worried about things running away to the upside look into and educate yourself about call options uh and to avoid some downside potentially just consider increasing your allocation to cash you can always buy back in that's one of the beautiful things about stocks and you don't have to go all the way back in especially especially especially in uncertain times look the good news is I think this week we got pretty dang good earnings from companies does that mean all C uncertainties are gone no absolutely not are there still going to be fantastic opportunities to invest in the long run AB absolutely but if your future is going to be affected your ability to buy a house or to build a business or or just pay your bills is going to be affected because you're all in on let's say the stock market and you're not properly hedged going into uncertain times then maybe this video is for you thanks for watching check out that House Road Show I got to go present in one minute see you bye
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