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Nifty analysis. We'll wait a few minutes for more people to come. And then let's get serious. Okay, let's get started. Oh my god, I can't believe I'm saying this. I can't believe I said that. We talked about how bullish call spreads or put spreads are a good deal. I still don't know how this will work.
But did we miss the moment of takeoff? Is there still potential for growth? Look, in the long run, I have no hope, okay? But in the short term, what if there was still momentum for growth left? So, uh, okay, let's focus on Nifty, shall we? You see, if he was supposed to sag, and he didn't sag when he had the chance last time, then I don't think he's going to sag anytime soon.
It may eventually sag, but the likelihood of that happening is lower. Nifty is holding support confidently and this is the second bounce. Look, if it was "yaha pe" (here), I would have my doubts, because this is just the first bounce, right? This could be a false rebound. But it's not...So, imagine it like this.
Let's say someone dropped the ball. Sorry , ball. What am I even talking about? What kind of accent is that? Someone dropped the ball and it bounced, right? Ahem. The first bounce will be a little higher, and then it will fall. But if the second bounce is higher than the first , we can't assume it's just a bounce off the floor, right?
We have to assume that someone is throwing it, because the laws of gravity, friction, conservation of energy, and much more confirm that if the second bounce is higher than the first, then it's not a bounce, it's something else. So, if we get a higher high above 23,200, which is very, very likely. Then, boss, it's not a rebound anymore.
That was a rebound. This is not a rebound. So, I don't want to open "short" positions considering this. I always said I didn't want to go short, but now I only have the confidence for small "long" positions. So, I will give a few theories as to why I will not open "short" positions here. First, it was a “bearish” breakout pattern, or what sophisticated people call a “curtain of dark clouds,” right?
This "curtain of dark clouds" did not work . Okay, and it was canceled. I mean, technically the clear reversal is 23,160, but more importantly, it was not confirmed and the price bounced off support, and "dark clouds" usually form at the top of an uptrend . So, it was a false signal: "dark clouds " formed at the bottom of the downtrend and were not confirmed by a "bullish puncture." I mean, technically this candle would be a "puncture" if it opened below the low.
So, by the classic definition of a "pierce", the opening price must be below the low of that candle, but it is below the body. So, how to put it...This is not a classic "bullish breakout", you know? Because it should open below the low of the previous candle. But we have what we have, and it is a very good candle of a strong rebound.
This is not some random candle. Bank Nifty is not as bullish as Nifty, but Nifty looks very strong indeed. So, the weekly Nifty candle is a bullish candle. If the previous high and the exact number is around 23,160, or the 23,150–23,200 zone is broken, we can expect a stronger rally. At that point, I wouldn't call it a rebound.
I'll call that a worthy buying interest. Is n't that right? Er... That's true, Amite. Kartik says, "Bro, check your mail." I haven't seen this letter. Unfortunately, many of the emails I receive end up in spam. I need to check spam more often. I will do it. Thank you, Paul. Thank you. We will be making more videos about IV.
Uh... Some kind of agreement was made between Qatar and Iran . We will get to that too. Bank Nifty has a green candle. So I don't know if it's any kind of figure at all, you know? Because... look, for this to be some kind of candlestick pattern, it has to have...well, what is it? This is nothing. This is not "haram" because a body is not inside another body.
This is not a "puncture". This is not a " takeover". This is nothing. This...this is "doji". This is a candle of uncertainty, but we have to consider that there were several... So, let's forget about this giant "head and shoulders" for a moment. But it's hard not to notice this support here. And the "head and shoulders" is not confirmed.
Ideally, the head and shoulders would be confirmed if we closed below the level around 53,500, but that is not happening. So it is not a weak Bank Nifty. Is n't that right? RIL will "explode" tomorrow, so Nifty is set for strong growth. Ompom asks, am I serious about job losses due to AI? I'll get to that, okay.
I'll tell you something about AI. Oh my God, people who have no idea about... Look, I don't consider myself a big tech expert or anything, but I'm surrounded by people who are, and they've all said to me, "Boss, we're lost." Is that true? So don't believe me, but I promise , the people around me are really smart, and they say we're lost, and I don't know what to say.
But, anyway, going back to the market, we'll check the open interest, but yes, it's very strong. Open interest is very strong. 23,000 is reliable support. 23,000 is good support. Yes? And the PCR is a bit overheated: over one near ATM, and 1.6 overall. A little overbought. 1.6—this is, frankly, a slightly overbought indicator.
It's a little overbought, but look at the structure...sorry, the distribution of this option chain. There is no resistance there until 23,500, and that is very telling. Whereas at 23,000, 22,900, 800, 700—there is support everywhere. So I don't think this open interest is going to break anytime soon, and I'd be very surprised if FI data doesn't confirm this.
And they contradict them. Okay. Changing customers. FI and pro traders are bullish. Clients—for growth. Now let's look at the participants' futures data . Still short positions. FIs sold futures worth less than Rs 500 crore. FIs bought shares worth Rs 3,500 crore. Someone tell me this is a block deal .
Please tell me this is a block deal. Jayakrishnan says he's expecting 23,800. I would n't be surprised, bro. I wouldn't be surprised at all. Look, gold...yeah, I think it's going to hit $3,300, honestly. I mean, we've been saying all along about gold and silver: short, short, short. I didn't wear shorts.
I hope some of you shorted and made money. Please tell me whether you shorted silver or gold. Dipankar, this is my name, then dog, sensible dot com. The whole point of starting your own company is to get your mail with your name on it. Block deal. This is a block deal. What? Block trade is...okay, we'll also look at...now let's look at USDT sales on Binance.
Okay. 102. So that's down from Friday's 104, but still pretty high . So, let's look at all the markets . Small cap is falling, mid cap is falling. But the weekly candles show that things are not so bad. Both small cap and mid cap look confident on weekly charts. USD INR is now below 95. And 10-year bonds are at 7.40.
Uh-huh. Gold...You see, I would be very surprised if we don't see 3500–3300. Maybe there will be a temporary respite here. We need to see what happens at that moment. Now silver is down 6%, we were drawing it , and it, uh, broke through that. And, like an idiot, I just watched without opening short positions.
I don't know what was going through my mind. At level 58, I remember our regular viewer Gaurav and I were saying a lot: "Bro, yes, line, yes, line, and yes, line." And this line came, and we, like idiots, just watched. Uh, the 10-year US bond yield is below five, and that's a really big headline because at that point everyone was saying the world was ending at 5.40.
You see how quickly...So if you want to look at this 50 point drop in U.S. bond yields, 50 basis points, 0.5%. Er, EDVs are up 7-8%. So they talk about a wild rise in bond prices when it happens to long-term bonds. Uh , so, yeah. So what are we planning to do again? Fragile talks about a $6 billion robbery.
I don't know if this is a robbery or something else. Good. Block deal worth Rs 982 crore in Swiggy. Oh, I understand. Uh-huh. I can't believe Swiggy fell from 280 to 180. I remember playing a little bit of intraday trading with Swiggy, bought around 270, sold around 285, felt like such a hero. And then I realized that I should have played for a draw from 280, which I didn't do.
My God, how stupid I was. But, anyway, back to the topic... So what's our verdict, huh? Uh, a lot of people are asking about AI, so let me share my perspective on AI, okay? Not that it matters, because I'm not an AI expert. But I'll give you a little hint. You see, for some reason I was a big fan of AI in 2022 or 2023.
Probably about three or four years ago, maybe. By the fourth year, I already remember that I was even planning my travel routes with the help of AI. I was asking, you know, I have a lot of projects related to artificial intelligence right now. I, uh, used AI to draft legal briefs, to respond to them, to help prepare some financial directives for parliament.
I used AI to monitor my health and the health of my family . I used AI to work on my hobby—a weekend car project . I used AI to create a website to monitor the vital signs of my entire family. I used AI for a project to detect candlestick patterns. Maybe it's worth making it open source now. I used AI to make a prototype for that candlestick-based algorithmic trading system.
The first version of our website for us. My team now writes code only with AI, Claude. There is not a single engineer on our team who does not use AI. We had 40 people, that's our maximum. We don't have a sales department, an operations department, nothing but engineering. This is our conscious choice.
So, in 2023, we had a team of 40 people. And people were fired for various reasons. We have a policy of not firing people unless they've done something really, really bad, you know? As far as I understand, you have to try really hard to be asked to leave Sensibull, but... Sometimes people leave for better opportunities, but it's happened that when someone leaves, we never replace anyone.
And just like that, our team size decreased from 40 to 30. And even now we understand that we have more people than we need, but we will not fire them. We know that we can do much more with fewer people . We were a very compact team, right ? Well, look, imagine. If you think Microsoft, Oracle, or Infosys is a brontosaurus that eats 10,000 burgers a day.
Sensibull is the complete opposite, a very compact team. We are so compact, how can we explain it? We probably... In China, there are so-called weight loss camps. If you're fat, you can go to a camp where they literally starve you, right? They won't give you food. They restrict calories until you lose weight.
It's like a prison. This is a prison for fat people, right? So, we're so frugal that if Microsoft looks like a brontosaurus eating a million burgers a day, then we're someone who spent 3 straight years in a Chinese weight loss camp, right? We've lost so much weight that we look like people who just came out of...we look like Christian Bale in that movie where he's just all, you know, skin and bones .
And despite such frugality, after the advent of AI, 25% of our team left, and we still think: "Boss, we still have too many people," right? Now imagine an average company and consider that we are not doing primitive IT work, right? We're doing something a little smarter. I'm not saying we're doing some brilliant IT work, but we're a little to the right of the median on the normal distribution curve in what we're doing .
Now imagine all the IT companies you can think of. Yes, a mechanic. This is that movie. This is what we are talking about. And look, I don't go to the physical therapist anymore because of AI. I no longer have a lawyer because of AI. I think my accountant is probably the best I've ever seen. AI picks up on nuances in tax law that it sometimes misses, right?
AI found a loophole in the tax code that the highest authority on tax in India, who I can't name because, you know, that would be slander, but even that guy didn't know the nuance of a certain segment of the Indian tax code. I mean, forget about it. I asked several people who worked in the tax service, they couldn't point out this exact nuance, but the AI noticed it, right?
And that's why I'm talking about...we use Claude Opus, Sonnet. You can change the model, but I'm saying that if anyone thinks it's unrealistic, they're in for a very rude awakening. Dude, people think I'm saying this because I don't care about my job, right? But the point is, you see, I know we're all going to lose our jobs, and there's a certain hierarchy to this process.
For example, people who write copywriting will go first. Paralegals, paramedics, etc. who don't do physical work can go first. Then low-level programmers, then middle developers, then seniors, then product managers, and then people like me. I too will be fired thanks to AI. I was talking to another friend of mine from Silicon Valley.
The dude launched 10 companies where all the employees are AI agents, you know? And yes, last week he appointed another AI agent as the company's CEO. And each of these 10 companies earns about $100 a day. Well, imagine, right? He has 10 completely hyped imaginary companies with AI bots as employees and an AI bot as CEO, and he earns $100 a day from these 10 companies.
He's just a dude sitting in Silicon Valley with a laptop, right? And this is a side project, meaning he has a real job at a real company, but he just wanted to experiment with the system. So, he founded 10 companies with AI employees. Each of these 10 companies earns $100 per day . So you can do the math yourself.
This is just madness. And people think it's not real. I mean, it really is. The dude is resting while $100 a day is deposited into his bank account from 10 different companies. That's $1,000 a day, $7,000 a week. And 28,000, sorry. Yes, $28,000-30,000 per month. That's $300,000 a year. Isn't that right?
How many people do you know who actually make $300,000 a year? 10 imaginary AI companies together earn over a quarter of a million dollars a year. So you know, oh my god, I think I need to talk to this dude and ask him, "Bro, please tell me how you built these companies, and I'll ask him to teach me.
Maybe I can make $300,000 a year too." Right? But that's exactly what I'm talking about. So this is reality. This will definitely happen. So how will our portfolios depend on this? I think if you look at the broader picture of the stock market , right? You'll see if many people lose their jobs, and there are approximately 800 million knowledge workers in the world.
This is probably 10% of the world's population. I don't know what percentage of their work will be automated. And if there are 800 million knowledge workers—even 10% of job losses among those 800 million workers will have serious consequences for the global economy. And I'm not saying this is a recession, a downturn, or a pullback, okay?
I'm talking about something that's changing the world, as I call it—the script for the movie "The Matrix" unfolding before our eyes. So, if this happens, a lot of people will lose their jobs. If many people lose their jobs, they will not have money to spend. If they don't have money, companies won't be able to sell them anything.
If companies cannot sell their goods, their profits decline. If their profits fall, they are forced to lay off more people. Their stock price is falling. It becomes a spiral. So, with that in mind, you can't be too optimistic about any of the current industries that are being automated, right? If there are a lot of people…look, look at Bangalore.
If the AI situation gets complicated, the entire real estate sector of Bangalore will face serious difficulties. So, if you're planning to invest in real estate indices, REITs, real estate companies—there are so many of them listed on the stock exchange. The auto industry, right? Because people buy cars when they have money, at least in this part of the world.
IT workers are the main buyers of cars. You get the point, right? This has a profound impact on stocks, your portfolio, what the world will look like in the next 5 years, blah blah blah. I say this because I have spoken to many people who have only seen the free version of ChatGPT and believe it is not a threat.
If you take the latest cutting-edge model , the most expensive paid version, your opinion will take a dramatic hit, right? So, um, the point is that…yeah, you get the idea. So forget all that. Now the question is what do we do with Nifty? Nifty looks strong so far, despite everything I say . This cannot be avoided.
If Nifty breaks the 23,200 mark, then expect further growth. So, the verdict: Nifty is likely to test 23,200. If this level is broken, let's see where it goes. This is a gap, 23,600. A gap. The bearish trend is now just below It's a very distant target, but 23,500. I don't think there will be any bearish trend until this support level falls.
I keep the agreements. In fact, I opened both positions. I opened both a "bullish call spread " and a "bullish put spread" for November, the second day, that is, not for the first weekly , but for the second weekly expiration date. Ahem. Oh, we're already settled. So that's our agreement to, you know, move with it.
So. This is our analysis for today. See you again tomorrow. Thank you very much for joining.
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