저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 인도 Goldilocks 성장 국면과 강세장이 길게 이어질 것이며, 지금은 대형주·중소형주를 가리지 말고 좋은 아이디어를 찾아 투자해야 한다는 낙관적 견해. 미국 금리 측면: 미국 10년물 금리가 두 달 전 5%에서 현재 3.97%로 하락. 금리 하락은 주식 밸류에이션(PER)에 우호적이나, 4%대 변동은 사이클 수준이라 큰 조정은 불필요하다는 입장. 미국 경제 측면: FOMC 점도표에서 물가 전망은 하향, 성장 전망은 상향 조정되어 금리 인하 횟수 증가 → 연준이 Goldilocks를 승인하는 셈이라고 평가. 인도 경제 측면: 직전 분기 성장률 7.6%로 세계 성장률(1~2%)을 크게 상회. 중앙은행 등이 내년 이후 성장도 긍정적으로 전망하나 시장은 아직 연 7% 성장을 가격에 반영하지 않았다고 봄. 인도 주식시장 측면: 강세장 초입이며 기업이익은 연 15~20%대 성장, 2년 복리 성장률 약 18~19% 전망. 리테일 자금 유입(월 약 300만 계좌 증가, 현재 1억3천만~1억3천5백만 계좌)이 지속되며 5~10년짜리 상승장이 예상되나, 강세장은 결국 나쁘게 끝나므로 대비 필요. 외국인은 지분 3% 축소(약 3조 루피 매도)했고 되사는 가격이 더 높아졌다고 언급. 밸류에이션: GDP 대비 시총 비율 기준 완전 반영 상태이나 아직 과열은 아니라는 입장. 섹터/종목: PSU 은행(공공은행)이 신용사이클 개선, 경영 전문화, 이익 개선으로 상승 여지가 크다고 제시. 대형주 지수가 중소형주 대비 부진했으나 자본 규모보다 좋은 아이디어와 적정 가격이 중요하며, HDFC은행 등 대형주와 더 작은 은행 모두 매력적일 수 있다고 봄. 기업 증권 발행(IPO·블록딜·사모 엑시트) 증가는 민간 투자 확대의 신호로 해석. 리스크: 강세장 말기의 급락 가능성, 과도한 유동성 쏠림, 디지털 규제 및 감시 필요성.
다듬은 글
it's a huge day for the markets and we have vas well should I say hugest or the biggest of Market veterans ramd Agarwal of motilal oswal his team has just completed their 28th wealth creation study and over the past many years I have noticed each study gives you a gem of a lesson to find wealth creating companies this time ramdev says don't just look at accounting profit look at economic profit look for where sector Trends and the company's own endowments gives you a hocky stick return now I'm really excited about the hocky stick return more from the man himself RVE thank you very much for dropping in into our studio good morning well first up I you know look at the ambience where we are meeting you know the markets uh two months back five % risk-free return in the US uh us yield today it is below 4% is it gone below yes 3.97 when I last checked so should we actually prepare for higher multiples now you see markets are not mathematics I mean yes uh kind of a significant reduction in the interest rates would warrant uh you know reating in terms of higher P multiples for the stocks which is is a logical thing but if it is you know cyclical upturn downturn from said 1 half% to 4% 4% again so this is a cycle I think stock markets they are already priced in this kind of Ms unless this 4% goes to 10% 12% obviously uh the multiples will fall but I don't think this requires any kind of a major adjustment in the P multiples so we are at about 2022 in India so if by chance they the interest rate comes down to 3 and half% or 3% that doesn't mean that that we deserve to get 30 or something like that oh no not that much well I thought one standard deviation higher even that will help because somewhat yeah you know if you're going to grow at 15% earnings it's a Tailwind for business valuations and how much I don't know but it definitely is Tailwind okay what has come from the fomc you know the the Dot Plot they vote on GDP and inflation they've all brought down their inflation forecast and hence the rate cut number of rate cut has increased but they have not brought down their GDP forecast in fact for the current GDP forecast has been adjusted higher because the last number from us was 5.2 so therefore fed is endorsing Goldilocks you think of course they are I mean they themselves surprised the strength in the economy despite inflation and whatever difficulties they had so clearly it's a terrific time for US economy but India has despite all the difficulties world over we have brilliant time gold loock is on in India even earlier than us so yeah by ourselves we are in a last quarter 7.6% when the world is at 1 or 2% so the gap between the global growth and Indian growth is distinctly higher this time and uh uh now the knowledged people RBI and all they projecting even next year to be exciting and even after that also so if by chance Indian economy actually grows at about closer to 7% in 2425 I don't think that's there in the market no that's not priced yeah that's not priced yeah we are still talking about 6 and a half I'm to come to your hocky stic returns as you say in your study think stocks not markets but today you know we have to talk markets for a little bit more does this look like 2004 to 2007 to you now yeah I mean I have seen four bull runs see welcome to the Bull Run okay we are properly in the bull run and uh so we had the the biggest of the Bull Run was 1992 Hasa bull run when the market went 7x in 19 months from 6700 to 4200 so that time it was a liquidity L bull run it was there was no support in terms of corporate earnings and all but it was just a liquidity L and liquidity suddenly went out this time we have the we have the fundamental reason where GDP is growing well cerate profit is growing at about anywhere between 15 to 20% right now my analysts are saying for next 2% this year and 14% yeah so they saying about 18 19% compounded two years return sorry growth so we have a very good support of the corporate earnings growth and uh we have amazing amount of retail liquidity just pouring in and in a predictable way my sense it's a 5 to 10 year kind of run and uh it's a I mean Grand Finale is ahead in the stock market so we're in bull market and bull market always ends badly so be uh ready for some kind of a you know I mean though we have a fantastic regulator we have uh I mean all kinds of digital surveillance they can always control it I hope they control it on in time but uh the the the size of liquidity which is entering because of this almost 3 million accounts coming every month now we we have crossed 130 we at about I think 133 or 135 million accounts every month it's climbing my senses be headache for 250 300 million accounts in next 3 4 years so till this journey continues I think we'll have enough local liquidity now foreigners they have to decide they lost 3% share in they sold at 16 17,000 18,000 they sold to 3 lakh cres worth and now when they want to buy back that same quantity you know it's coming at 21,000 yeah so they have to pay that price we I think we earlier discussed that uh so I think uh but then I think real fund will be that money will be taken away by the companies you see how many IPOs are there how many block deals are happening how many private exits are there so now money will at at some level promoters will find it uh attractive for the unlisted companies to get listed listed companies to go for aggressive expansion and create infrastructure and give a good kickart to the private C cycle so my sense is that we are in a fantastic government is having fantastic time and getting the tax and hence they are blowing it in the infrastructure and if the private C starts they'll get more taxes and so I think you know we are in a virtuous cycle yeah so that kind of thing looks right and valuation is also at about see another thing which can go wrong in the market is that your is are you crazily priced so yes at 4 trillion to 3 trillion GDP we are fully priced but still okay okay no I take your point but but uh who are the beneficiaries I mean now to come to your study itself before I come to the hockey stick you say that PSU banks are one party that look uh you know ripe for uh gains it's not only PS yeah PSU Banks uh for sure because they have been bitten on so badly and uh they have size they have brand Equity their distribution they have the deposit franchise so everything goes for for them just that their past is very bad so obviously Market will remain skeptic about what will happen in the future but uh since uh the management style has changed in the sense that interference from Delhi has almost gone or gone totally and uh they are being managed in professional way credit cycle is very good credit cost cycle is kind of very favorable banks are actually they have a net posi I mean their recovery is more than slipage so apart from yeah so this is a cycle I generally these are the typically end of it see one year you have more recovery than slipage almost you coming end end of the cycle so I don't have good understanding of where the economy is you know I mean is it getting last time the good cycle lasted for 10 years you remember they started cleaning up in 2002 2003 and then till 2013 the banking cycle was but 20078 I think it just picked out at least in stock market it ped so it was about five five years six year kind of thing we started in 2021 we already done 2 years I hope we have 3 4 years in our hand for the grand finale Fair Point now let me come to the large caps uh you know it's common knowledge now that the small caps and the midcaps have done very well it's the large cap index which is lagging the uh do you think that uh therefore it is safe to go with the large caps and in particular uh I think we are running along when you speak the fastest uh in The Last 5 Years the largest weth now you point out in one of that HDFC bank for the first time is not there in the fastest most consist biggest biggest so do you think its time has come should we therefore look for those kind or because it's not there don't go there see this is a proper bull market everything is going perfect you have to be a good investor the being good investor doesn't mean midcap small cap large cap it is about finding the right idea right investment idea at reasonable price see if you're finding a big bank to be very reasonably priced at less than one peg or something like that HDFC I quota whatever you like that's also a good idea but if you finding a smaller Bank in the same parameter even more attractive you must buy the smaller one also or there are some businesses which are fundamentally mid and small like small is also not anymore small the small is now I think about 18 20,000 cres this biggest small is about 182,000 crores and mid is the smallest mid is 182,000 so we are not talking about some yeah so so you have now enough size so let's not discuss this C classification for investing investing must be at the I mean uh it's it's unfortunate that because it should be cap agnostic yeah this this cap has become very important because the mid and small index has done 30 40% whereas the large G is done 12 13% It is purely because of the movement of the FI interest in India they typically buy and sell large C and since they were absent in fact they were selling the uh large cap remain remain depressed and uh all the money went into M and small and they kind of uh so my sense is that uh one should look for a good idea there because large cap has say 100 100 companies mid Gap has 150 but small cap has thousands yes so you'll always get some spot where you'll find ideas so I think you should chase a good idea and this study is actually a framework to find those ideas okay Ram hold on I've asked you quite a few questions on today's uh fed positioning but I have to ask you about your hocky stic idea of picking stocks all those questions on how to pick hocky sck moves and stocks on the other side
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