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hello and welcome to this special program I'm sitting down with someone who needs no introduction he is the most powerful Banker in the world the biggest by far uh he's also one of the most recognizable American businessmen in the world Jamie Diamond is CEO at JP Morgan Chas Mr Diamond great to have you with us here thank you very much for your time ran th thr to be here uh how how does it feel to be back here it's wonderful I mean when you get out you meet your own people and the clients and I was uh mentioning before we've gone since I've been here we've gone from 6,000 employees here to 60,000 uh and they're across all things data scientists engineering we cover 150 companies in research and banking 850 multinationals come in here custody Asset Management uh we just been growing with the country and your country's been growing quite well and I'm quite optimistic about the future of India and markets have been booming as well markets yeah uh I'm get to markets in a bit but I just want to start with the first bit which which news which just came out a government to government deal between us and India to set up a semiconductor Fab unit in the country right there are elements of Technology transfer Etc That's The Cutting Edge semiconductor and sort of PL plans to localize production I just wanted your thoughts I think it's great I look I would love to you know India's quote a non-aligned nation and I don't think we should be asking to line but I think it's great that we're reaching out to each other helping each other investing in each other and I would love to to see far more of that and and this this has two elements one is the National Security part which of course all countries have interest in the second is just you know better economic relationship over the last 2 three years we've seen the rise of the so-called industrial policy across the world uh National Security is being prioritized as you said do you see this as part of that in the context of that yeah so industrial policy you know I'm a little cautious about I think to combat some of these things and to do things in your country's own interest which are hard do economically you're going to need some economic policy industrial policy like the United States has you know for for Rare Earth and things like that and lithium every country is different so the National Security needs of India are going to be more around energy I think for everybody it's going to be semiconductor chips so I do think that's industrial policy I would caution industrial policy when it's used for regulations bureaucracy politics votes social and it doesn't have you know uh the twin of Permitting it's not going to work so you got to be a little cautious when you when you use it but yeah we're going to have to have some and I like I said I think it's very important that America and India have a great economic relationship would you agree though that uh you know in the the fal part of what you described industrial policy is kind of taking the lead businesses and you know who you align with who you want to do business with Building Supply chains a lot of that is now it seemingly is led by that I mean what governments really want to do well no it's twoo different governments have always negotiate economic Arrangements stuff like that if you look at the United States the industrial is a very teeny part of the economy so it isn't like it's taking over the economy in other parts of the world is obviously a much bigger part of the economy so uh but yeah Nations because of National Security and because of what some people might consider unfair competition there will be forms of industrial policy if I was a government I'd be very very careful it should be very targeted very specific it shouldn't be to protect local industry it shouldn't be to just create jobs it should be for very specific reason and and uh but you're going you're going to see it and hopefully it's well done us has been uh trying to reduce it dependence on China India has been and it's expected to be a big beneficiary of it do you think we are sort of uh using that full potential right now or there's a long distance to go well look this going to China okay National Security America was overly riant has not being angry at them you should ask why we didn't do it before but in terms of rare earth semiconductors uh uh penicillin ingredients for pharmaceuticals obviously Every Nation look at and say we can't rely on someone who might one day be an ADV AR that doesn't make him an adversary today for Supply just like JP Mo has always have multiple diverse Supply chains we don't rely on anything the second one is around disagreements around policy like you know company countries are aiding to betting Industries to dominate Global industry and begger Thy Neighbor that's not going to work either so you you're going to have people you know these going to be hard fought uh it's not going to cause deglobalization but it's important that country do that and so and it's just starting it would take years the semiconduct you're talking about 5 10 15 years so even if it's going to take place it's going to take a long time but companies are doing it on things like iPhone I know you iPhone production so some things can move quick some will take years huge opportunity for China I mean for India a huge opportunity for India uh that people called the China plus one strategy now that companies that RI solely on China are we look at India Vietnam uh Malaysia Indonesia Etc uh you know uh we got us elections and I think one thing which both Democrats Republicans agree on is China uh you you'd agree with that I mean in that sense what's happening is in a way irreversible uh you know the the break in relations sort of a Cold War I think you have to be very specific in this one I think National Security everyone's going to do uh unfair trade everyone's going to do I think because the Ukraine the terrorism in Israel Russia Iran a Ab betting China's kind of on the other side of America that one so that's causing a lot of the tension I think the better thing do is get fully engaged which they've done our government to try to protect ourselves in National Security unfair trade and yeah I think if the war goes on yeah there will be contentious issues between the far more contentious because of that uh so both sides I think will be fully engaged both sides are going to be tough but I don't think either side is talking about you know disconnecting uh what can India do Mr Dion to attract more FDI foreign direct investment the conditions are right as you said the economy is doing very very well markets are booming what else can we do to accelerate this process I think first all you've done a lot the Prime Minister that odd par program I think I'm saying that right the change in the GST the tax system among the states national infrastructure your schools graduating a lot of extremely bright talented people those are the things to do reduce regulations you know here you know regulation bureaucracy does foreign direct investment so make it easier for foreign direct investment to come here and then you have to do industry by industry but I do think you should be attracting it it'll help you grow much faster uh let's talk about uh you know the big uh event from last week which is interest rates coming down the FED cutting by 50 basis points do you think it was a bit excessive given the fact that GDP is expected to grow at 3% stock markets at at alltime highs I mean there's no issue with credit spreads Etc indicators are all pretty good and you get a 50 basis point cut what do you make of it I think it it's lot more ink than it deserves I think they they raised raage to five very quickly they were a little late which they acknowledged raised to the five the economy is slowing down inflation is coming down and relative to infl even if inflation is 3% you know the five is maybe a little bit too high so they you know they made a big step to get it close to what they think it might be they've got plenty of room to go down uh and hopefully you you will'll continue exhibit you know growth with you know inflation coming down I'm a little more skeptical than other people about that but it is happening and they're just reflecting reality you you've been cautious in the past uh about prospects and said well one has to be prepared for things going wrong are you a little more positive now I mean this is not a cut when you're facing a recession or things are looking weak it's it's like a happy cup so I mean are you a little more not I so my question is all geopolitics which may determine the state of the economy okay but it's really the geopolitics that these things you know they're getting worse they're not getting better there's chance for accidents and in energy Supply God knows other countries get involved you you have a lot of War taking place right now you have American warships being attacked almost every day in the Red Seas that's my biggest caution you know the economy fluctuates I'm not I don't worry that much about the fluctuation of the economy and uh you know obviously the Federal Reserve will try to do its job to to uh you know to moderate you know the vicissitudes of the economy but we are spending a lot of money and you know in my view that spending the money causes growth it also causes inflation uh and whe it all moderates I think it's true for countries around the world we got to like really think through how much debt countries can put on before it causes a real problem so uh so you know long term Optimist short run I'm a little more skeptical than other people that everything's going to be great markets are pricing things like they're pretty they're going to be great I'm I'm put be on the cous side of that one right I mean uh Rising interest rates did not hurt markets will Falling interest rates be an impetus I mean can there be a further impetus yeah again so you talk about Rising you know things are sometimes history Rhymes was not always the same I think when rates went from Z to 2 and A2 that was barely Rising rates that's just kind of norm normalization and we had very strong growth coming out of Co so you know 5% was probably needed to slow things down just a little bit Yeah underneath the rate there's a real economy no one knows what that real economy is going to do next year no one and so I don't look at it like you know they're panicking to you know maybe the econom gets stronger maybe it's going to get weaker and so they're trying to just they remember they're reacting to data they see today you know and then you can try to predict what the data is going to be a year from now I think there's more underlying inflation because of things like the green economy fiscal spending remilitarization of the world demographics uh those things will drive inflation down the road and you know even AI in my view right now it's little inflationary we adding a lot of talent around data it's not the deflationary part may happen but that may be several years down the road yeah right you you want when you say you are a bit more skeptical is that the economy you're skeptical about or markets and what they're pricing in both both no I think the you know the stock markets and the bond markets are pricing in a soft Landing okay and and but you also look at the stock markets are generally very high uh and bond spreads are very low and you know that's kind of Goldilocks and that may very well happen I mean I'm hoping for that I just give it a lower odds than the market does of that happening yeah you said geopolitics is still the biggest worry for you uh who in the White House in the next 2 months is best place to end the war in Ukraine uh Russia Ukraine I don't think it can be ended the next two months I think it's getting worse and you know look I'm sure the Biden Administration you know I have tremendous respect for Anthony blinkin and Jake Sullivan I think they're doing the best they can but remember there are adversaries there are other people say this is not a unilateral action America can take and then you know America's got some tough decisions to make just like Europe and the so I think the Allies need to really get prepared for a longer War more military uh unfortunately more military help the ukrainians and then that is the only theal Adventure lead to some kind of peace or Armistice in Ukraine's interest are you throwing your weight behind I mean uh people listen to you people look at what you say are you I mean who are you supporting if I can put it bluntly I'm not endorsing anyone at this time okay I I I I spend more of my time on policy what's the policy we need that can really help both the world that's foreign policy and domestically right and I I would have a negative income tax I would have better permit I do certain regulations I'd have I would love schools to judge themselves and what when the kids high schools and Community College when they graduate what kind of job do they get you know and so you're focusing on the outcome not just you know the input there's been a talk that uh if Mr Trump and in an interview he said this that he may tap you to be the treasury secretary Mr Diamond I just wanted to ask you this you said like the next day definitely not so I don't expect to be the treasury secretary well there's Mr musk who's also been sort of you know he said openly that well I'd love to be part of a a trump Administration I I just wanted uh okay so Elon uh this idea about having an efficiency commission I actually like the idea I mean I think governments have to become more efficient more confident and look at you know when they take money what do they get for right and I actually think it's a very good idea it's kind of like remember Alor had the Reinventing government we really need to do it and in America we need to do it I'm sure a lot of other countries need to do the same thing thank you so much for sitting down with usk you very much folks thank you thank you so much
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