저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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미국 경기 호황과 AI·생산성으로 인플레이션 하락 전망, 달러는 재상승 가능성 언급. 한편 일본·터키·중국 등의 미국채 매도와 환율 방어에 따른 달러 유동성 증가와 신흥국 위기 가능성 경고. 비트코인은 장기적으로 73만~150만 달러 목표(2030년 기준) 제시, 토큰화·DeFi 확산 전망.
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So now we'll get back to why we think things will continue to improve. I gave you a hint, and not just a hint, back in the opening remarks. I essentially said that the economy is on the rise right now, and that's exactly what's happening here. And this is exactly what we expected. So, regarding the dollar: how high will the DXY index go this year?
Again , the way this is read could refer to an average for the year. We meant any moment during this year. You can see that Cal-She is betting or forecasting 101.9, which is down from the previous reading of around 103. Hello everyone, welcome to Everyday Finance. While cryptocurrency may already be in the midst of another major bull market, leading Wall Street investors like Katie Wood and Tom Lee believe the biggest gains are yet to come.
Katie Wood predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million as it transforms into a global monetary network, with Ethereum and Solana powering network assets—a trend supported by traditional finance giants like JP Morgan and BlackRock, which are rapidly adopting blockchain technology. Complementing this long-term view, Tom Lee expects the bull market that began in 2022 to continue through 2026, noting that temporary sharp corrections due to Fed uncertainty, AI repricing, and policy changes will eventually give way to even stronger market performance.
Their views collectively highlight that the crypto ecosystem is still in its early stages, characterized by accelerating institutional adoption, expanding tokenization, and deeper integration into the global financial system. This economy is entering a phase of rapid growth. We've been talking about this for quite some time.
But the markets are falling rapidly. What the hell is going on? Well, we think we know the answer. I think it has to do with Kevin Warsh, our new Fed chairman, who is not saying anything, at least not yet. And I really hope he says something soon. Although he may not do it. But if I understand who he is correctly, he leans much more towards supply-side politics.
And he doesn't think high employment and strong growth are bad news. In fact, people who believe this follow a theory called the Phillips curve. They believe that when growth accelerates, inflation also increases. But that's simply not true. In fact, the most dynamic periods of growth were accompanied by much lower inflation than expected.
Why? Thanks to productivity. And I think the same will be true now. But we have a lot of "hawks" in the Fed, and they can't say as much as they did under Chairman Powell. And I think Kevin Warsh will hinder that a little bit, because it just causes unnecessary volatility. But they still talk about it in whispers.
And many fear that they will again make an interest rate decision that will not contribute to growth and reduce inflation. Believe it or not, this will mean higher interest rates. Now we believe that all of this will end with a clear understanding, and we will show on the graphs what is happening. It is clear that productivity is driving this economy and that inflation will decline .
And if the war in Iran ends soon, we can already see oil prices peaking and starting to fall. So there is such an expectation . That inflation is likely to turn negative sometime this year, and that will be, first, because of falling oil prices, and second, because of the impact of productivity, which allows companies to lower prices, and we see some companies doing that.
I know a couple of months ago I mentioned Frito-Lay, which is owned by Pepsi, cutting the price of some of its products by 15%. And we're hearing from other companies like Walmart and Costco that they're not raising prices as much as one might expect because they're seeing productivity efficiencies increase, largely due to AI and robotics.
Here we are . I think the graphs tell a very good story, and hopefully Kevin Warsh will look at them when we put them together and give his opinion. So, I'll start with the Kensho chart. We learn a lot about what to do and what not to do when formulating questions or statements. In this case, we have understood that the budget deficit to GDP falls below 5% in fiscal year 2026.
Our intention, and again, we need to articulate these things better. We wanted to say that the budget deficit-to- GDP ratio falls below 5% at any point in fiscal year 2026, while this actually reads as an average for 2026. So we knew it wouldn't be average, but we believe it will fall below 5% by the end of FY26 , which is September 26 .
And let me give you a few reasons why that is the case. So, in other words, we're learning, we're going to refine our ideas in terms of how we express them. And, you know, this is very important. I, I think those of you who follow Cal-Shay and the prediction markets are aware of the big controversy surrounding Polymarket regarding the first sale of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy, or Strategy as it is now called.
And this caused a big uproar. You can read about it, but it was related to, you know, explaining what exactly the statement was trying to say. And again, we made the same mistake. So, it won't fall below 5% in fiscal year 2026, but here you can see why we think it will or could happen by the end of this fiscal year, in September.
You can see that there has been some improvement over the last month, to around minus 5.3% . Despite what you see, corporate income taxes fell sharply due to accelerated depreciation in last year's tax package. This benefits corporations, which can now invest significantly more in this new era of artificial intelligence.
But that should hurt the deficit, right? Like this. This is a refund of individual taxes. They grew , as you can see from the black line, by about 17% year-over-year. So this should also have a negative impact on the deficit. And yes, but he has improved a little. Now we'll get back to why we think it will continue to improve.
I gave you a hint, not even just a hint, in the opening statement. I essentially said that this economy is booming, and that's what's happening here. And this is what we expected to happen. So, relative to the dollar, how high will the DXY go this year? Again , the way it's written could mean an average for the year.
We meant any moment this year. Now you see Cal-Shay is betting or predicting 101.9, which is below the 103 level where it was previously. As one of Bitcoin's early institutional supporters , Katie Wood recognized its potential as a global store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account back in 2015, building on the enormous growth potential of its tiny initial market relative to the world's money supply.
Today, ARK Invest maintains this unwavering confidence, projecting a base price of $730,000 and an optimistic target of $1.5 million by 2030, based on a fixed Bitcoin supply of 21 million coins and growing institutional demand fueled by spot Bitcoin ETFs. As pension funds, asset managers, and corporations gain direct access, Wood sees bitcoin not as an experiment but as an emerging global financial asset whose greatest gains are yet to come as it integrates into the broader, rapidly expanding crypto ecosystem.
But you can see here where the dollar is. It is just above 99. So, Kalshi, or prediction markets, expect the dollar to rise, despite all the talk about the dollar being in a " death spiral." I mean, it's a bit of an exaggeration, but many forecasters are predicting a further decline in the dollar, and you can see here that it has actually stabilized, although it has continued to fall due to, whether it's the end of American exceptionalism or our twin deficits—the budget deficit and the trade deficit .
But if we are right , the dollar will rise sharply this year as the impact of the tax package that began last year seeps into robust economic growth and returns on invested capital in the United States continue to rise relative to the rest of the world. Now, one more thing I'll say about the dollar: high energy prices usually help the dollar.
Er , and therefore it should stabilize, if not rise, since oil is mostly priced in dollars. Um, that didn't happen, and we have to admit it. But look what's also happening on the other side. Here are the treasury securities holdings of countries around the world. We have China, Japan and India. And we also have Turkey.
Turkey is marked in green. And I saw a headline a few weeks ago that said Turkey had actually depleted its treasury reserves to almost zero because it was propping up its currency. So what does she do? It sells Treasury securities, gets dollars for them, and then sells dollars and buys Turkish lira to try to support the currency.
Well, they're almost at the end of that road, and they're also selling gold, just like Japan. Sorry, Japan didn't sell gold. Japan sold Treasury securities to support its currency. She doesn't want the yen to depreciate below 160. Um, well, it's actually lower, actually higher than 160. So it's 160 yen to the dollar.
So we are getting more and more yen per dollar. He is trying to hold on to the 160 mark, as that is where Japan's economy began to collapse in 1989-1990 . The problem is that they sell Treasury bonds, get dollars, go to the market and buy yen. Since they cannot control their currency, inflation rates are rising, and they, like the US, will make a monetary decision in mid-June; maybe they will raise the rate to 1% , which is still below our 3.75% Fed rate, but the gap is narrowing significantly.
So, uh, and here you can see other countries. Japan, uh, it's highlighted in purple there, and we just got, uh, the data for the last month. They sold $76 billion worth of Treasury bonds. You can also see China and India, uh, reducing their Treasury bond portfolios. And yet, our, uh, bond yields, uh, are staying pretty stable in the range of 4.4 to 4.5 –4.6%.
This is in the long term . These Treasuries are typically short-term, but we are surprised that there has not been more pressure on Treasury yields given the volume of their sales. Now, there's another point worth noting: when they sell dollars and buy their own currencies, what's actually happening?
Dollar liquidity in the market is increasing. And many are wondering why the US market continues to reach historic highs. Today, it is worth noting, is an exception. But I think one of the reasons is that there is more dollar liquidity in the market. On the other hand, and I remember this from the 80s.
I was very young and very impressionable. I remember all of this. When we saw developing countries particularly aggressively support their currencies, as Turkey is doing now, it often signaled a crisis brewing. We saw this in the 80s. We saw this in the 90s during the Asian crisis. So, I'm watching this closely because crises could be brewing if these countries are forced to sell Treasury bonds or, as in the case of Turkey, sell gold.
We saw Russia selling gold recently, I think this week. Uh, someone, uh, I don't know if it was the Kremlin, but someone in Russia was saying, " Hey, we can't afford this war anymore." So, uh , you know, it's very interesting for us. And of course, in the case of China, uh , China is experiencing an acute shortage of oil.
They were getting a lot of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, uh, and they had to cut back on supplies, so maybe there's something going on there that's, um, causing some unrest. Um, so keep an eye on these changes in the currency markets. They are important. Katie Wood argues that the next phase of cryptocurrency expansion goes far beyond Bitcoin, fueling growth through decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization, and infrastructure upgrades supported by networks like Ethereum, Solana, Hyperledger, and Hyperliquid.
Despite initial skepticism, when, for example, the purchase of Bitcoin in 2015 was considered a mere PR move, large traditional institutions such as JP Morgan and BlackRock have embraced blockchain technology, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has called tokenization the future of financial markets. Rather than chasing hype , ARK Invest is betting on long-term growth by supporting direct blockchain integration and tokenization of real assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, expecting these direct, intermediary-free networks to create powerful network effects as the broader digital economy takes shape.
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