저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 관세는 협상 도구로서 실효성 논쟁이 있으며, 관세 수입 1달러당 약 1.5달러의 비효율이 있다고 주장. 일론 머스크의 DOGE 예산 삭감은 14년 전 모로코 도자기 등 오래된 사례를 과장한 측면이 있어 신뢰도를 해칠 수 있다고 비판. USAID 지출 논쟁(콘돔, 세르비아 DEI 등)은 일부 사실 확인이 필요하다고 봄. JOLTS 구인·이직 지표 약화로 노동시장 연착륙 우려, 주식시장은 아직 버블 단계는 아니라는 시각. 팔란티어는 성장성은 높지만 밸류에이션(시가총액 약 2350억 달러)이 매출 대비 부담된다고 평가. 테슬라 유럽 판매 부진과 비트코인 10만 달러 지지 어려움도 언급.
다듬은 글
well Trump will go to the Super Bowl an executive order may be coming to end the Department of Education the Mexican and Canadian tariffs were a big fugazi for about the first hour that the market was open yesterday and then of course even uh Canada came to an agreement with the United States after Mexico came to an agreement with the United States now sure the tariffs are only delayed for 30 days and they could come back but let's be real this was all part of the art of the deal or as some people are now calling the farce of the deal that is we had a whole lot of bullying and bark with very little bite but then again Donald Trump is able to argue hey now we're getting not only our troops on the border but we're getting 10,000 troops on the border of Mexico on their side to help us fight cartels we're getting border troops on the Canadian side because 1% of all the fentol that comes into the United States comes in through the Canadian border so obviously we've got to really seal that Northern Canadian border but is interesting because to Donald Trump he never actually really saw tariffs as a tool that he would rely on longterm although some feared that he would really like the revenue from them a lot of people always saw them as a negotiating tool and I think that's exactly what Donald Trump got now there were hopes from people that Donald Trump's tariffs would end up leading to so much revenue for the United States that maybe we wouldn't even need a federal income tax but let's be real tariffs as we calculated yesterday and saw through research yesterday cost us somewh around a buck 50 for every dollar of tariffs we collect so they're pretty dang inefficient things that are also inefficient and things that are just ah you know I always want to let you know when my opinion is coming through as best as I can but things that piss me off are when you have people like Joanie ER constantly throwing stuff at Elon Musk and Elon Musk is picking it up hookline and sinker there is never a question from Elon Musk about what Joanie earns to say when Joanie says something's bad it's bad because it makes doge look good now don't get me wrong I love what doge is doing and I hate government waste just as much as an ex person okay like let's be real about that we're we could all agree on that we could all have you know a coffee over that or or yeah I don't know whatever croissant unless those are tariffed over that but the point is this Joanie stuff with Elon is just getting out of hand just like the f focus of this camera man what is this crap that's probably okay I'm not going to say it anyway uh so take a look at this Joanie says despite the fact that Moroccans have been making Pottery for thousands of years USA spent more than $2 million for America uh Moroccan pottery classes and promotion Elon Musk replies to this and says good grief with a quote Tweet now this would make you think that this $2 million drama was new like oh my gosh thank goodness do is exposing this madness and and hardworking Senators like Joanie Ur are are pointing out the flaws and the ways of the government spending and after all it is true it was spent this it was a problem in fact it was so much of a problem that the program was exposed by the New York Times and many other political reporting agencies all the way back in 2011 this Moroccan Pottery drama I remember from back in the Obama era yeah the Obama era that's when this drama was happening and yes it was a mistake it was wasteful spending it was exposed and it was a huge embarrassment for usaid but Joanie doesn't tell you that that is a 14-year-old issue and Elon is eating it hookline and sinker like this is why we're putting USA ID in the wood chipper okay but wait a minute did you didn't ask her when that happened or where the details were you just bought it uh and she didn't offer any of those details because it would kind of make her look silly like are you just Googling or like honestly I feel like she's honestly doing something like a chat GPT give me a hundred examples of wasteful spending uh that the government has has done over the last 20 years a and then she's just tweeting out a bunch of old crap like give me new stuff okay like let's talk about condoms going to Gaza oh wait even that is probably wrong we'll talk about that in a moment but the IMC who received that money is is not spending the money on condoms going to Gaza at least not $50 million of it or potentially even any of it we'll talk about that in just a moment but yeah again I'm not here to say that the government spending is right there are plenty of examples of poopy doopy for example NOS that are doing nothing trying to bolster climate change in African countries why okay they have more problems than climate change right now uh and yet they're receiving millions of dollars that is real waste but now we're distracting real waste and conflating real waste with old news that's been dealt with 15 years ago and it just hurts Elon musk's credibility and it hurts Joan's credibility so like there are a few ways you could look at this one is you're somebody who's going oh Kevin you just sound like a sh for your government okay that's like the low IQ answer okay then there's like the the like smart person who's watching this going yeah I mean like it's still not good that the government wasted that money Kevin and I'm like I agree it's some bull crap like Moroccan pottery classes $2 million is stupid right absolutely but I mean it does weaken their credibility if it's so hard for them to find waste that they're having to go back 14 years and they're probably using CH GP to help them it just makes them look weaker at what they're supposed to to be doing which is finding current waste that we could actually save money on see I am so in support of what Elon is trying to do with do that I don't want them to look like clowns and fail and this is clownish and I think smarter people look at that and go yeah you know they shouldn't be using the old stuff maybe they should be a little bit more critical and double check things first now I want to really talk about jolts and China tariffs and what's going on with the FED B out and all this good stuff but since we're on the topic I may as well just quickly hit USA ID look really quick primer okay JFK founded usaid in the Cold War they did this to counter Russian propaganda this is really simple you go into broke areas and you help American farmers by buying their rice us made rice did you know we grow rice Sacramento you know where the Delta smelt is yeah we grow rice over there okay just saying we also grow some in Louisiana and some other places but point is we then take that rice from our American farmers we probably overpay for it which is fine because it's a form of supporting Americans which I'm all for then we slap a giant us logo on it we send it to Africa and it's it's it's part of a a US Government propaganda campaign I'm not saying this is how money should be spent I'm just saying what I'm solely going through what the point of the program is see look saxs of rice with us Aid on it okay it's all part of the psychological manipulation again I'm not saying it's necessary or how effective it is I don't I don't know uh but anyway you do get some crazy things which are indeed egregious and this is the stuff we should be pointing out like this 1.5 million doll this activity aims to advance diversity equity and inclusion in Serbia's workplaces and business communities by promoting economic empowerment and opportunities for lgbtqi plus people in Serbia it will Foster an environment that increases employment potential for lgbtqi plus persons persons okay uh expands opportunities for entrepreneurs uh lgbtqi plus entrepreneurs and reduces workplace discrimination okay so $1.5 million for this now that's the kind of waste we should be talking about because this seems crazy okay sax of rice you could sell me on that Dei in Serbia N I don't know about that anyway all right so uh this this quickly wrapping it up this this 50 million a wrapping it up I need more coffee and I need something in this coffee $50 million in condoms uh this is an argument that has been made by the Trump organiz trump Administration that uh we have sent $250 million buckets of money to Gaza to the international medical corpse and they're spending it on condoms first of all usid gets condoms for like 5 cents and if they were able to just buy condoms they would be buying billions of condoms and we really don't need that uh so uh actually I think 50 million is basically exactly 1 billion condoms and that's that's not needed that's also been what's reported as false uh it's just sort of taking a quick look at what IMC at least does IMC argues that they've received this is their POV so it could be biased you know maybe they don't want to tell you about the money they're spending on condoms I don't know just saying their po is that they received $68 million from usaid to support operators in Gaza since the War Began uh in particular they they had two hospitals that they're running with this money with a capacity of 250 beds 20 emergency rooms 170 surgical departments uh facilities to provide 247 Medical Care to roughly 33,000 civilians per month largely fueled by the US government safe deliveries of 20 babies per day blah blah blah okay look also get it Americans are going to be like yeah but bro $68 million you know that could that could renovate some nice hospitals here in America well I totally agree the argument that the government makes is that well you know when all the bandages that they're getting over there and the kids are getting taken care of by us products hopefully they don't turn into terrorists I don't know what the ROI of that is okay that is something we could debate but again it just goes to show that the the deeper you dig on this stuff P usually past what I call the Twitter or X level uh the more it's kind of like all right like it's not as salacious as they say uh it's you know like there's probably some rationale to at least some of it not saying it's good but I think that's why Marco Rubio is now taking over usaid and he's saying oh we just have a few bad apples so rather than killing the entire program now all of a sudden it's oh we just have a few bad apples in subordination by some of the people inside USA this is very different from what Elon Musk alleged which is that usaid is an evil and criminal organization and it was time for it to die and that I'm feeding it to the wood chipper some people say he's got like a Vengeance against usaid because of his time growing up in South Africa I I don't know if any of that stuff's true I I do think that something that is sus is like why does the BBC get you know 2.6 billion pounds of us aid aid I don't know maybe the BBC then's going to write nice stories about the United States or so I don't know that that it to me it just screams government propaganda but then again that's what JFK created the damn thing for he created it for government propaganda so like if you were going to look at a government propaganda organization then you're going to expect to find government propaganda in it then then it makes you wonder though what again is the ROI the return on investment I think that's what everybody's sort of focusing on now of course this is leading to people like um AOC freaking out saying that Elon is putting 19-year-olds in the treasury that he's morally vacant he's one of the most unintelligent billionaires I've ever seen other people are responding saying you're a bartender who became a representative and you wouldn't know intelligence if it bit you in the never mind so people have a lot of critical things to say uh what I do know with almost certainty is that there will be a lot of lawsuits around this and I think Elon Musk is finding younger people I I don't have an issue with younger people I I I remember being you know in my early 20s and like come on like agism sucks and I think younger people can do some incredible things but honestly I think elon's picking some younger folks because he knows it's just a matter of time until there's some kind of legal injunction against what doge is doing until courts can sit around for two years and figure out what they want to do with Doge and by then it's too late anyway uh and so I think elon's like yeah let's let's get as much done as we can ASAP and treat it like a startup because the clock is ticking not a bad idea honestly something else that's not a bad idea is paying attention to what's going on with the jolts data we just hit a 3-month low on job openings in labor turnover 7.6 million versus the 8 expected 8.16 revised for November below all estimates but one professional business services pulled back finance and insurance pulled back H hiring rate is just at 3.4% this is the lowest in a decade and the quits rate is just at 2% which might explain why only 20,000 people have accepted Donald Trump's Federal buyout so far he was targeting 100 to 200,000 people to quit from the government and so far it's only been 20K now that number could grow and the hiring freeze is still in place but it definitely suggests there's a little bit of softness in uh in the good old um labor market which then people start wondering like oh does that mean the stock market's overvalued and Howard marks had an interesting point on this he's like you know buying at these values is buying at a poor valuation however we're not at a bubble yet in fact if you buy today you're sort of betting on the market bubble he's basically saying the Euphoria Is Yet To Come ooh this sounds delicious uh anyway China's tariffs are like puny okay these are like the smallest like PP tariffs I've ever seen pricing power tis um China you know clearly is trying to seek some sort of Leverage against Trump they're opening investigation into Google they've already had an investigation going into Nvidia for a few months now they want to potentially launch one into Intel because the vast majority of Intel's Revenue comes from China these have seen as sort of like pre- retaliatory but they only named like 80 products worth about $14 billion in trade and you know we are planning on tariffing like $525 billion worth of their stuff which is you know I mean jeez I can't even do that math in my head it's going to be like a lot it's like what 80 times 525 ID 14 billion oh yeah see it just it's it's too early for this 37.4 times the amount of tariffs wow yeah so anyway uh okay so then we've got um paler to talk about wow so paler is an interesting one obviously the Deep seek moment is something that could benefit a company like paler in fact as we've been talking about for the last couple weeks the commoditization of llms is a big boost to service companies and I've specifically mentioned companies like paler but also Google meta Amazon and otherwise because it makes sense like it basically just lowers the cost of you providing your service now yes that could lower the barriers to entry for other companies to come in and compete with you but Palante here has so much freaking cash their ability to adapt is going to be really incredible so this is phenomenal the problem that you really have is the valuation of this company right and it's been a problem for a while except it's such a retail favorite and nobody really cares about the valuation that the stock just keeps going up because people aren't selling it and people are only buying it because it keeps going up which is incredible it's like congratulations this is awesome commercial revenu is up 52% year-over-year which is great and and it's expected to grow 54% which is an acceleration of growth which is fantastic it's music to every once a years and government revenue is even up 45% people were worried that was going to slow down now Palante a a whole lot more sexy than Salesforce but just think about this for a moment Salesforce has a net margin which means you know when they bring in $100 their net their bottom line is about 16.1% so they bring $16.1 to the bottom line problem is their revenues are only growing at like 8 to %.
so a lot slower growth right paler net margin is actually a chunk lower at 11.2% on net that's the bottom line that's not gross all the gross margins at these software companies obviously are always very very high but anyway that's 70% lower than what you have at Salesforce uh in terms of net margin now they're growing yes at you know combined with government revenues they're growing at somewhere between they're estimated to grow somewhere about 30% over the next 9 years let's assume for a moment I'm going to be generous that they're grow at 36% over the next 9 years well if they grew at 36% compounded for the next 9 years they would finally reach the revenues that Salesforce has which is interesting because if you compare the market capitalization of these companies paler is trading for about 235 billion Salesforce trades for a uh market cap of 325 billion which means Salesforce has 9x the revenues and it costs you let's see two 35 it cost you 38% more so 38% more money into Salesforce for a company with 9x the revenues and higher margins by a good chunk net margins at least now the net margins the reason people don't love those is you know you look at the net margins versus the cash flow the company pays a lot uh paler a lot of their money out in uh stock based comp which obviously then when you look at adjusted ebit is added back in but you know that that pisses people off you can kind of you could see it yourself here okay so here's the revenue figure the 8 27 you've got net income of uh what is what is this net income here 779 attributable to shareholders over here uh actually that might even be less than the 11% I calculated I think from the annual figures so uh slightly on the lower side now again the assets are amazing I mean we're sitting on $2 billion in Cash Plus another three in marketable 5 billion in cash is freaking amazing you've got current liabilities of uh a billion so whatever so you've got 4 billion of free cash which is is remarkable right here's the stock-based comp which is well in excess of their net income so when you add the stock-based comp back into their their net income and you sort of do some other cash flow adjustments over here the net cash that they're actually earning in a year is around a billion bucks which is really cool but you know then what you have to also be careful of is you take a billion dollars and divide it by 235 you know this is this is a return on your cash uh like cash flow divided by market cap your return on cash here is not 1% it's like 46% which if you go to investor relations you can do this with any company I'm actually a big fan of doing this you go to like end phase I'll just give it to you really quick you go to end phase your return on cash right now because the stock is fallen so much your return on cash right now at that company is somewhere around like 12 to 14% it's so good now I'm not saying you should buy M instead of paler not trying to give you advice point is that is an interesting metric you might consider comparing like Tesla even has a better return on cash than this this is an interesting one uh but then again you know there's no sign right now of paler stopping this kind of keeps cranking sure the valuation but uh they're certainly beating I mean they beat expectations so you got to give it to them speaking of expectations Donald Trump has expectations of creating a sovereign wealth fund now this is interesting because usually companies with surpluses do this see Norway has a sovereign wealth fund of 1.7 trillion it's the largest in the world China 1.3 trillion Saudi Arabia 925 billion that's the one you keep hearing about investing into companies like Lucid excuse me uh and then you got Singapore at $770 billion these are usually companies with a surplus like they make more money or collect more money than than they actually spend and so then they go invest it and the benefit of investing it is that you potentially earn money on your Investments and then you have to tax even less it's it's kind of cool right it's it's a great thing um Donald Trump is now potentially suggesting maybe the wealth fund could acquire Tik Tok uh and then that way it's like pseudo government controlled I don't know how I feel about that government controlled social media but then again we basically have that oh I'm sorry I didn't mean to do that uh anyway so uh yeah that's interesting uh then you've got uh Elon Musk freaking out about some people getting exposed their identity is getting exposed working for Doge and he calls us a crime so we started going on a Banning spree whatever apparently there was even one person who and I thought this was kind of brilliant they made a substack where they they wrote why Doge and you know their author name is one of the people whose names was leaked so if you Googled their name it would come up and uh in order to see the substack you had to pay a th000 bucks uh and so if you did and then you subscribed to the substack you would see that it was actually blank it's just why Doge why I gave out my seven figure salary to save America and it's literally blank there's no discussion other than some comments that say poetically blank very interesting now uh it's unclear if anything other than the Cyber truck is going to be affected by China's tariffs but there are potentially some downsides people say to Tesla from elon's politics given European sales for Tesla vehicles plummeting in January you can see Nega 18% in the UK 63% France Sweden 46 Denmark 40 I mean these are low numbers though so I I don't know how much this really matters I do think it's interesting that whoever put this chart together didn't include Germany in it they're trying to highlight Europe but they didn't include Germany in it is it potentially because Germany is positive year-over-year in January and that just went against their thesis I don't know but Germany should have been in there so I thought that was a little weird uh El Salvador apparently is willing to accept some of our political prisoners or Not Sorry necessarily political prisoners just American criminals for a small fee these are scary jails to be in by the way these are like 80 to 100 person jail celles yeah they're they're pretty bad so you might consider uh like looking on YouTube El Salvador prisons like you don't want to be sent to one of those hey might deter some crime though uh and then the latest micro strategy uh preferred stock option did get a little bit of push back had to sell for about a 20% discount to get those preferred stock options out there some people are wondering you know maybe micro strategy was just shooting too high on a potential you know future price or uh uh you know appetite is slowly slowing because uh slowly slowing Bitcoin is slowing down a little bit you know it's struggling to stay over 100k here I know that Don Jr is really excited about ethereum and said that everybody should buy ethereum I think he forgot the hashtag not personalized Financial advice but um certainly sounded like he was trying to give a give a good little hint there here go buy some ethereum kind of interesting how politics has mingled in with finance and now we have politicians saying things that as a dude on YouTube who's also a financial adviser has lots of licenses would just not ever say but anyway so is the world we live in so if you find this content helpful make sure to subscribe to the channel and V C Cal anali
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