저자: Winklevoss형제—비트코인옹호측 · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 버블이 아니라 네트워크 효과로 가치가 커지는 화폐 네트워크이며, 비트코인 선물 상장으로 유동성과 시장 양방향성이 강화될 것이라는 주장. [CBOE 비트코인 선물 상장] - 2017년 12월 CBOE에서 비트코인 선물이 처음 거래 시작됨(현금 결제형). - 공매도(숏) 포지션을 쉽게 잡을 수 있게 되어 양방향 시장이 형성됨. - 장기적으로 변동성 감소와 가격 발견 기능 향상 기대. - 기관과 개인의 비트코인 익스포저 접근성 개선. [회피 발언 및 논쟁] - 진행자가 보유량을 묻자 Winklevoss 형제는 답변을 거부함. - 제이미 다이먼(JP모건)이 비트코인을 사기라고 한 데 대해 공매도로 베팅하라고 반박함. [가치의 근거] - 금과 유사하게 다수의 수용(collective acceptance)에 가치가 있다고 봄. - 비트코인 채굴 네트워크는 세계 최대급 컴퓨터 네트워크이며 암호학으로 뒷받침됨. - 법정화폐는 평균 수명이 약 27년이라 정부 신용 위험이 있다고 주장(짐바브웨, 베네수엘라 사례). [버블 논쟁] - 2017년 들어 가격이 약 1,500~2,000% 상승했으며, 과거 $30·$100·$500 때도 버블이라 불렸다고 지적. - 기업 주식 밸류에이션 틀(현금흐름·생산성)은 네트워크인 비트코인에 맞지 않는다고 주장. - 메트칼프 법칙(사용자 수의 제곱에 비례한 가치)으로 설명하며 페이스북 사례를 듦. [출연자 전망] - 비트코인 장기 가치에 대한 낙관적 입장이며, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
welcome back the Winklevoss twins used to be synonymous with Facebook that anymore because after investing 11 million dollars of their Facebook settlement they invested that money in Bitcoin back in 2013 they are now claiming to be the world's first Bitcoin billionaires now they would not tell me how much Bitcoin they own though and a first on Fox interview however I asked them about their new Bitcoin futures exchange at the CBOE and what it means for the currency moving forward this is the first ever Bitcoin features in the world trading right now this morning on the SIBO futures exchange so it's important because to this point has basically been a spot market and so this is the first time that people can actually express easily a short position on Bitcoin so what that's gonna do is create a truly two-sided market which should reduce volatility in the long term and also increase price discovery and just make it easier for institutions and individuals to to gain access and exposure to Bitcoin with this contract because it's cash shuttled you can buy it with cash and you settle out in cash so you don't have to actually touch the underlying or deal with Bitcoin but you can get the investment exposure to it so it's just another financial product an easier way to get accident it certainly gives you more liquidity that's our Shore and and Tyler you both made the point when you were on the morning show now people could put their money where their mouths are right because you've got people like Jamie Dimon calling Bitcoin a fraud so if you think it's a fraud go short it absolutely yeah we've been working really hard to give Jamie Dimon opportunity to short Bitcoin and anybody who says that you know it's a fraud or a bubble you can go now put your money where your mouth is and that against it yeah I mean talk is cheap and that's right now now you can actually like Cameron said you can bet against this so we encouraged Jamie Dimon and we encouraged him the personally bet against this Bitcoin take JP Morgan's balance sheet that it bet against Bitcoin we'll see what happens but but now they can do it instead of just sort of throwing stone yeah but Tyler you got to explain this because people are wondering what what bitcoin is backed by when I look at the dollar the dollar is backed by the full faith of the Treasury the full faith of the US government what Cameron is Bitcoin backed by so it's a great question so Bitcoin we think of Bitcoin as gold and I think if you look at gold some people point to an intrinsic value of gold but that really doesn't explain the value of gold it might explain 10-15 percent of the actual value of gold gold has value because we all agree that it has value and we'll all accept gold and it as a collective acceptance and value that way Bitcoin in addition to being increasingly accepted around the world and more people coming to the system by the day has the minor mining Network which is one of the largest computer networks in the world and it's backed by cryptography a lot of people would look at the US dollar or government backed currencies and say a government in has counterparty risk the average life span of a currency is roughly 27 years look no further than the Zimbabwe dollar they have I think a trillion dollar bill or Venezuela the the history of most currencies is really terrible and so yes living in the u.s.
we look at the US dollar and we say well what's wrong with that and it's a pretty decent sort of value but in reality most fiat currencies out there fail so how many how many bitcoins do you both own we're not commenting on that right now why not cuz we're gonna talk about our the Bitcoin futures contract we may discuss that later at some point look Bitcoin this past weekend opens with a thousand-dollar spike 1000 contracts trading hands in the first hour an exchange halt happen because of the volatility and the website crash all in less than than 24 hours we know that the currency has risen more than fifteen hundred fifteen hundred percent this year actually two thousand percent this year so let me ask you maybe bitcoin is real but is it a bubble yeah it's a great question people use the word bubble and we this is basically bitcoins xx bubble that you know we came in five five years ago remember when big thirty dollars Bitcoin was a bubble at $100 at 500 a thousand five thousand ten thousand now we're at about what seventeen thousand you know Gold's been a bubble for thousands of years but the bubble framework is really not correct to put against Bitcoin when you think of a company a company right in their stock price if they produce X amount of units one year and this same amount of units to next year and the stock price goes up and the economic doubles and the economic productivity hasn't changed the cash flows haven't changed of the company we say that company's overvalued but bitcoin is not a company it is a network and the value of networks is Metcalfe's law it's N squared so the amount of users on a network is is n and so if I'll only person in the world who has a phone and it's not very valuable I can't call you but if you buy a phone you've actually increased the value of my phone inadvertently or not even knowing because now all of a sudden my phone is useful same thing with the social network if you look at Facebook the first person on Facebook lonely place not much to do all of a sudden 100 people you can connect with people you can share stories share pictures I've good analysis so it's classic network effects a billion people on Facebook that's a billion squared right so that's all of a sudden the value gets exponentially greater and that's how we value Bitcoin money is a network people believe in the US dollar it has more value people believe in Bitcoin it has value people believe in gold it has value and that's not a linear increase by definition the more people they get in the Bitcoin it makes it more valuable and when we try and take like equities or stock bubble type frameworks to to Bitcoin it's really it's misguided because it's a network it's not a company
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