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결론: 이 영상은 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측을 담지 않은 찰리 멍거 발언 리액션 영상이다. 찰리 멍거 발언 소개: 경영대학원의 이론(효율적 시장, 현대 포트폴리오 이론) 비판, 시장 가격 오류가 가치투자자의 기회가 된다는 주장. EBITDA 비판: 감가상각 등 실질 비용을 제외해 이익을 부풀린다며 EBITDA 대신 실제 주주 환원 가능 현금을 봐야 한다는 견해. 자사주 매입: 내재가치 이하에서 매입하면 주주 가치를 창출하지만, 과도한 가격에 매입하면 가치를 훼손한다는 견해. 손실 기업·투기 자산: 막대한 적자 기업이나 암호화폐 등에 시간을 쓰지 말고 단순한 가치 판단에 집중하라는 조언. 뮤추얼펀드 업계: 대부분 지수를 추종하면서 높은 수수료를 받아 투자자에게 실익이 적다는 비판. 파생상품·보험·코스트코: 파생상품 시장은 사회에 해롭다는 시각, 보험업은 어려운 사업이라는 평가, 코스트코는 고객·직원·주주 모두에게 이로운 사업 모델이라는 평가. 보상 컨설턴트: 이사회가 CEO에게 종속되어 보상 컨설턴트를 고용하는 구조를 비판하고, 보상은 주주 가치와 경영진 인센티브를 맞추는 단순한 문제라고 주장. 언급 종목·자산: 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측이나 매수·매도 조언은 없음. 암호화폐는 투기적 대상으로만 언급됨. 리스크: 영상 자체는 교육·리액션 성격이며 특정 투자 조건이나 리스크 제시는 없음. 출연자 전망: 특정 시장 전망 없이 장기적 가치투자 철학을 강조함.
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a few days ago i was scrolling through youtube on my phone as i like to do looking for something to watch uh and i saw a new video pop up from a channel called the swedish investor and the video was titled charlie munger roasting people for five minutes straight now i'm a big fan of charlie munger as you can probably tell by poor charlie's almanac kind of sitting up here behind me and i'm also uh quite a fan of charlie munger's kind of woody one-liner type answers as well so i thought this would be a fun video to react to here on the channel uh it's pretty entertaining and there's also a lot of actually really important uh investment lessons in there as well so let's get straight into it i do hope you enjoy if you want to watch the original video i needed to no reaction or anything like that that will be down in the description below as well uh but without further ado let's get straight into it and i hope you enjoy those of you who are about to enter business school or there i recommend you learn to do it our way but at least until you're out of school you have to pretend to do it their way people don't seem to get that point you have any idea why charlie lauren if people weren't so often wrong we wouldn't be so rich yeah now what charlie's getting at in those first couple of comments the first one about business schools uh and the second one about people uh being wrong and then being so rich charlie munger has commented over the years a few times on business schools basically saying that there's a lot of economic theories and um you know things they say about valuation and so on that just don't make any sense to warren and charlie and there's also theories like you know efficient markets and modern portfolio theory that they're really not big fans of you know people can get market prices wrong and they can value businesses inappropriately they can be buying and selling the minimum in the market for way too high price or they can be buying and selling them at way too low price and the more people make those mistakes the more people like warren and charlie are able to take advantage of that and value investors are able to buy stocks below intrinsic value and sell above intrinsic value and so on so that's what charlie's getting out there i think you would understand any presentation using the word ebeda if every time you saw that word you just substituted the phrase earnings so charlie's commented several times on ebitda over the years as well um you know the certain financial metrics that that have a place and so on um i can really get the use of ebit ebitda is one i really do struggle with and charlie clearly does here as well you know what you're really trying to understand when you analyze a business is how much cash can be returned to shareholders over the lifetime of that business and ebitda if you don't know is earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization so if you take off very real expenses like depreciation you can suddenly make the earnings of the business look a lot stronger than they might be otherwise so um ebitda has kind of gotten out of control i would say over the years it's it's used almost everywhere and you even have like adjusted ebitda where people are pulling out one-off so-called sort of one-off costs in a business and that sort of thing as well um so i'm fully on board with what uh charlie mung is getting at here what you really want to understand is how much real cash kind of drops out of a business that can be returned to shareholders if you're trying to particularly in like a really capital intensive business where you're constantly replacing equipment and so on if you exclude depreciation from a business like that it really skews the picture like depreciation is the worst kind of expense warren buffett has described it as the opposite of float like they have in the berkshire insurance companies where you give away all the cash up front to pay for a particular asset and the value of that asset just declines you know steadily over time and it depreciates right so um yeah i think that's pretty good advice from charlie on substituting uh ebitda for for earnings anytime you hear that phrase oh no i'm i'm optimistic about life i can be optimistic when i'm nearly dead surely the rest of you can handle a little inflation and of course that's the other advice the best way to get what you want in life is just to deserve what you want how could it be otherwise it's not crazy enough so the world is looking for a lot of undeserving people to reward everybody wants fiscal virtue but not quite yet they're like that guy who felt that way about sex was willing to give it up but not quite yet well you don't want to be like the motion picture executive in california and they said the funeral was so large because everybody wanted to make sure he was dead it was investment banker aided fraud yeah not exactly novel uh charlie has a few peer peeps in life uh one of them is compensation consultants which i think he may comment on shortly later uh he doesn't have a soft spot in his heart for investment bankers either does not mean we approve of every buyback at all i mean we've said no no no i think some people just buy it to keep the stock up and that of course is insane and they're moral but apart from that it's fine that's actually quite good advice from charlie bunga buybacks are a topic that gets over complicated they're really straightforward if you're trying to do them rationally and create value for shareholders if you can buy out your partners which is all you're doing when you do a share buyback and you can do it at attractive prices you know at prices that are below what are private you know informed business owner would would buy shares in their business for if you can buy it below that intrinsic value it generates a lot of wealth for shareholders over a long period of time if you weigh over pay when you're doing your share buybacks it can destroy a lot of value over time for shareholders and that's about all you need to know when it comes to share buybacks listen to so many nonsensical cost to capital discussions that i've never heard of an intelligent one yeah charlie's big on lowering expectations absolutely that's the way i got married my wife lowered her expectations he dug himself out of that hole sure there are a lot of things in life way more important than wealth all that said some people do get confused i play golf with a man he says what good is health you can't buy money with it well there are a whole lot of things i don't think about and one of them is companies that are losing two or three billion dollars a year and going bubbly um yeah i see a lot of people kind of getting caught up in discussions about the latest cryptocurrency or um latest ipo from some money losing business and i think it really uh is a good idea to do what charlie mung is talking about here we are it's just not spin it's not worth spending brain power on it can be very uh those companies can be very divisive and you know cryptocurrencies and so on can be a very divisive topic as well and uh you know i see a lot of people sort of cheering when some of those investments go south if they went on board with them and vice versa and it's just a kind of crazy thing to do in my book we're all trying to sort of get to the promised land of the investment world and we have different approaches and so on um but if you're a value investor trying to make rational decisions about buying you know below intrinsic value and all that sort of stuff um it's probably not worth wasting brainpower on a lot of these obvious businesses that you should just be kind of discarding and focusing on on simpler equations accounting you can do things like they do in italy when they have trouble with the mail you know it piles up and irritates the postal employees they just throw away a few carloads and then everything's flowing there folks that happened in some unnamed international company country yeah italy the general system for money management requires people to pretend that they can do something that they can't do and to pretend to like it when they really don't i think that's a terrible way to spend your life but it's very well paid um so there's a sort of common three theme through a lot of these comments with the business school approach and um you know people being wrong creating opportunities for buffett and munger he's getting out another one here with kind of a dig at the mutual fund industry so the average mutual fund is pretty diversified a lot of them more or less are just the index you know if you own 50 50 or 100 or 200 stocks or something it's pretty hard not to get the results that basically mirror the stock market indices um so you know they're promising clients they can beat the market when they can't because they basically are the market they've also got a structural disadvantage in trying to beat the market because they're often scraping a lot of fees off the top so kind of right off the bat you're one or two percent a year kind of behind the index before you even you know get get started um but it is very lucrative you know if you can take one or two percent off the top of a multi 100 million or billion dollar funded as it is pretty lucrative but it's a weird industry that doesn't add a whole lot of value to you know the average investor most people would really be better off buying an index then um paying some mutual fund fund manager one percent or two percent a year to basically do the same thing well i can't give you a formulaic approach because i don't use one if you want a formula you should go back to graduate school they'll give you lots of formulas that won't work as samuel johnson said famously i can give you an argument but i can't give you an understanding it's extraordinary how resistant some people are learning anything another great charlie munger quote is that if you go through a full year without undestroying one of your most strongly held beliefs or ideas that's kind of a failed year so i really appreciate that even though mung is well into his 90s at this point he's still able to keep an open mind and and kind of learn new ideas and so on no the board at luber's hall did not breach its duty because we were not going to participate in the transaction if they didn't do it our way has anybody else got an easy question and yet it's perfectly obvious at least to me that to say that derivative accounting in america is a sewer is an insult to sewage it's it's another one of charlie among his pet peeves uh interestingly berkshire hathaway have actually made um pretty good use of derivatives over time so whether it be selling put options to receive premiums as they uh look to maybe enter into positions and that sort of thing they're actually some of the larger options traders going around but um at a higher level at least munger and buffett have described i think buffett in particular has described uh derivatives and options markets as kind of financial weapons of mass destruction and they tend to think that uh humanity would probably better be better as a whole if those things just didn't exist but you know it is a marketplace and particularly in the earlier days buffett especially was making good use of of options markets to um you know add a little bit of kind of cream on top for entering and exiting investment positions it's not that great a business as a business casualty insurance it's a tough game there are temptations to be stupid in it it's like banking and but competency is a relative is a relative concept and what a lot of us need including the one speaking what i needed to get ahead was to make meet against idiots and luckily there's a large supply reminds me of another thing manga always says which is to fish with the fisher when it comes to investing as well uh he's spoken about investing in the early days or for him you know in like the the 50s and 60s and 70s and so on and just being able to basically flick through moody's manuals and stumble across a company that's actually a pretty good business and it's straight into pv2 or something and you know you buy a position in it um after kind of doing some due diligence and making sure that it's not a complete fraud or anything and those kinds of opportunities are largely few and far between particularly in really highly developed markets like the us so um it's no surprise that he is really back to people like lilu who are um you know going over and investing in china where there's maybe not quite as much competition so uh or there's you know there's other less uh less developed markets where there's a larger supply of idiots i suppose in the in the words of charlie munger i don't like multitasking i see these people doing three things at once and i think god what a terrible way that is to think i like crypto currencies a lot less than you do and i think the people who are professional traders that go into trading cryptocurrencies it's just disgusting it's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide i can't be left out that comes reminds once i asked the man i just left a large investment bank and i said how does your firm make its money he said off the top off the bottom off both sides and in the middle well i would rather uh that is one of the reasons that charlie munger is a big fan of business like costco it's really like a win-win-win kind of system uh the customers do well because they're getting their cheapest groceries imaginable uh the employees do well because the business is doing well and they're able to return some of the economies of scale to employees as well as customers and then shareholders do well because you've got this big beast of a business that's you know kind of a compounding machine and it's pretty hard to stop at the scale it's currently at so i can certainly see what munger's getting out there either throw a viper down my shirt front then hire a compensation consultant um uh potentially charlie munger's biggest hate as uh compensation consultants clearly uh you know manga buffer have been on compensation committees at public companies in the past as well and they've uh you know really not enjoyed that experience they've talked pretty negatively about it to be honest you know the ceo is hiring the board of directors and most of the people on the board of directors require these board fees to live like there's not a huge number of them that can just go off and do other things and you know not collecting those board fees really doesn't matter to them because it doesn't move the needle for them that much so when you have that kind of arrangement there's really not a lot of challenging that goes on when you know ceo's asking for a pay rise or whatever it might be so they bring in compensation consultants and you know manga and buffer not a big fan of those types of people and they see you know compensation as a fairly straightforward you know activity you align the incentive of the management team with the um you know needs of the shareholder trying to grow the wealth of shareholders over time so with some businesses maybe it makes sense to incentivize managers on return on equity and that's something that uh the berkshire managers of various businesses as i understand it or incentivize on maybe in other types of businesses it makes sense to um you know incentivize the manager on having a low cost of production in a commodity business or something but um it's not that complicated of a task you just kind of got to match it to the to the business that manages operating i think i've offended enough people there's two or three in the balcony well they have it that's my reaction to charlie munger roasting people for five minutes straight i do hope you enjoyed it if there's any other videos that you'd be keen to get my reaction to definitely drop them down in the comments below if you did enjoy the video please hit like and also subscribe to the channel if you haven't already but that's it for me for this one and i'll see you in the next video cheers
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