저자: Tom · 외국인
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Movember 기부 캠페인 시작 영상. 파브라이 포트폴리오 상위 3종목(마이크론, 세리타지 프로퍼티스, 알리바바)을 소개하고 각 사업과 밸류에이션을 설명. 마이크론은 메모리 수요 증가와 업계 과점화로 현금흐름 성장 가능성, 세리타지는 자산가치 대비 저평가, 알리바바는 전자상거래 기준 내재가치가 현재 주가보다 높다고 평가. 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
well it is the morning of the 1st of november 2021 and it's been exactly one year since i shaved off this beard in order to raise some money for the movember foundation for men's mental health and suicide prevention and it's time to do it all over again so i've got the shaving equipment ready to go and i'll be back on the video in just a sec and just like that we now have a clean canvas upon which to grow a glorious moustache now if you followed along with the channel this time last year i ran a series on the channel called monash movember basically i did uh one video per week with some sort of monish prize uh theme or investment lesson or portfolio overview uh with mojo probably been one of my favorite investors and mona's also been someone who happens to have a glorious moustache so it was a really nice fit to sort of merge raising some money for a great cause which is the movember foundation with also getting across some great investment lessons from monash babri and with the help of you the subscribers as well as friends and family and also me donating all of the ad revenue from the monash november videos last november we managed to raise just under 2 000 new zealand dollars to go towards men's mental health and suicide prevention so this year i want to do it bigger and better and that's exactly what we're going to do so the team has now expanded from just me to actually 12 of us so myself and 11 other investing and finance related youtubers are all shaving down today on the 1st of november in order to grow a glorious moustache and raise some money for a great course so i will put a list of the team over here if you want to check that out and if you're interested in donating it's going to be kind of the same format as last year so i'm going to be donating all of the ad revenue from these weekly movember themed videos if you want to donate as well i will leave a link down in the description i'll actually leave two links so the first one will be my personal november profile so you can go straight to that one and donate if you'd like to absolutely no pressure to do so but that would be super appreciated and i'll also leave a second link down in the description which will basically be our team link so that will be for the youtube team aptly named margin of shave tea shout out to karangani for coming up with that name and shout out to any ben graham fans i'm sure we've got plenty watching the video so uh if you go straight to the team page you can check out basically what we've raised as a team so far if you don't want to donate directly to me that will be the first link and any donations that come to my profile will then sort of flow through to the team link so that'll be a great way to kind of keep track on how things are going and i'll be sure to do regular updates here on the channel as well and of course the 12 of us are going to be collaborating as much as possible so keep an eye out for uh some live streams we're looking to do the first one uh this weekend so depending where you are in the world that'll be either the 6th or 7th of november so that is planned it should be a good time and hopefully we'll raise some good money for a fantastic cause as well so um to the topic of this video i thought a great way to start off the movember series this year on the channel would be to kind of go back to our theme from last year and talk about the man himself monash pro price so i want to basically take a look at all of the publicly available holdings and monash proprieties portfolio look at basically his biggest three investments right now give you sort of an overview of the business of what those particular companies do and also sort of my interpretation of what i think the prospects are like as potential investments in those stocks as well now of course don't take anything i say about these particular companies as a recommendation to buy or sell or anything this is not financial advice um but i find it really interesting to follow some of the best investors in the world see you know what they've got the most money in because i find it a really nice place to sort of source investment ideas personally so without further ado let's get straight into that topic and i hope you enjoy okay so as of filming this video monash probably's largest investment is in a business called micron technology it's a stock that he's owned since late 2018 since the fourth quarter of 2018 and whale wisdom is giving us an estimated purchase price of about 38 per share now we don't know uh that those sort of estimated prices are super accurate but we know he did buy it in the last quarter of 2018 so i'll put up sort of the rough price range around which monash probably bought into that stock uh and micron is a name that actually has a long list of super investors a little bit like another stock alibaba which i will get to later in the video there's a lot of big names that are invested in this position and this is basically what the business does and what the sort of investment case is now i have to give a shout out here to stock compounder brad kellner he's done some great videos on micron and that's helped a lot with this research and brad is actually also on our movember team so shout out to brad for the great research and i'm looking forward to the uh glorious moustache that you're able to produce so in terms of what micron does micron is basically a memory chip maker so more specifically they mainly specialize in dram memory or dynamic random access memory and basically they're one of the big three players in this industry it's a industry that's had a lot of consolidation over probably the last 10 years it used to have a lot more commodity type characteristics than it does today which is kind of core to the investment thesis and we'll get into that in a sec but if you look at sort of the dram industry today there's really only three big players and importantly micron is really the only one of those three that is based in the west it's based out of the united states whereas the other two are actually based out of korea and whenever you're investing in a business that does have sort of commodity type characteristics there's obviously two sides of the equation you need to look at so you need to look at the supply and then the demand and um fortunately for micron the characteristics both from a supply and a demand perspective look quite attractive for this particular company so if we look at kind of the demand side first uh for for chips and full memory there's kind of three main drivers and again this is something that brad's covered pretty extensively on his channel there's kind of three main drivers for dram memory for micron so the first one is the transition to 5g now when you move from a 4g device to a 5g device you actually have a massive step up and dram memory requirement so you have about a 6x kind of multiple on the amount of memory required for a 5g device versus a 4g device so that is a big kind of step up in demand that's going to come from the 5g transition that will happen obviously over the next several years and you have kind of two other big points that a lot of bullish investors and micron tend to bring up so first one is full self driving that is going to again require a lot of memory it's not something that can really be done kind of over the cloud so it's going to have to be done within the kind of unit so within the car i suppose which is going to require dram chips and also gpus and data centers and like i say this is traditionally a very commoditized type industry so the only way really that you can have any sort of advantage over your competitors if you can't sell at a premium like uh you know you're not coca-cola that can sell at a premium to any other cola brand you have to have kind of something working in your favor and traditionally with a commodity business that tends to be just being the low-cost producer of a particular commodity but over the last several years like i say there's been a lot of consolidation in the industry to the point now where there are only three big players so potentially you've got a growing demand you've got a more kind of rational and consolidated kind of supply side of this equation so to me this is a really interesting kind of structural change in in this industry it's not one that i've really been massively able to get my head around micron's not a business that is squarely in my circle of confidence at all and i don't have a position in it but this has really prompted me to maybe look a little bit harder again so if you look at some of the kind of projections that people are putting out in terms of the cash flows that micron can produce things do look really attractive micron currently trades around kind of a single digit multiple of of cash flows and they are fairly aggressively bind back stock i'll put the shears out standing up on the screen here so that you can see what's happened maybe over the last year or two and combining sort of the shear buybacks with the growth and underlying cash flows from the sort of supply demand kind of mismatch that's looking really favorable for micron you've got people projecting 20 25 free cash flows as high as 27 dollars per share now if we compare 27 a share of cash flow to a purchase price of like 38 dollars per share from owners per brick you can really start to see why this was an interesting bit for monash proprietor make and although the price of micron today is closer to about 70 per share if they can genuinely hit some of these numbers uh that's a really impressive growth in cash flows for micron and again this is one of the reasons that i want to take a little bit of a harder look at it now currently the second biggest position in monash proprietor's portfolio is business called certain growth properties it's currently about an 87 million dollar position and represents about a fraction under 18 percent of his overall portfolio now uh certain is actually one i've covered pretty extensively on the channel again kind of in conjunction with brad actually so we've done a couple of live streams on cerritos and this is one that i actually full disclosure and a shareholder in as well now uh cerritos is a stock that monis probably actually bought kind of deep in the pandemic in 2020 he was able to pick up shares very close to the bottom of kind of where the stock got to so pre pandemic uh certain was trading at about 40 or 50 us dollars per share it got all the way down to about five dollars so it went down massively and as far as we can tell monash proprietor's cost basis is probably somewhere in the seven to nine dollar per share range now in my view the investment in heritage growth properties from pobrya is one of his classic uh low-risk high uncertainty bets so when we were in the depths of the pandemic and even now there is a reasonable amount of uncertainty about heritage growth property's future um if you look into certain growth properties as a business basically they are a rita real estate investment trust so the real estate from cerritos was initially spun out of sears uh just before cs went bankrupt and uh cerritos are basically um splitting their real estate portfolio into a few different buckets so in one part of stereotype growth property's portfolio you basically have a group of real estate properties that look really attractive from a redevelopment perspective so what i mean by that is previously these were properties that were rented out by sears they were paying maybe four or five dollars a square foot in rent uh and many of these properties have sort of been revamped in order to suit a new tenant and rents in many cases have gone up as high as about 20 dollars per square foot or even a lot higher i think they're averaging around twenty dollars per square foot so right off the bat with some of these properties you've got like a four or five x or even more and the rent per square foot that cerated is able to generate and in other properties they're doing much more extensive redevelopment so they this might be an old sears store that they're basically demolishing and they're turning into a life sciences unit or kind of multi-use retail or even multi-family housing and again basically the idea here is that you increase the rent per square foot and in many cases you actually increase the number of square feet available for rent so for example if you were to just take a kind of sears box a sears store demolish it and kind of build vertically on that same uh same piece of land you'll you suddenly have a lot more kind of square footage able to be rented out and if you're also getting paid a higher rent per square foot then that does very very nice things for your revenue and finally ceretage have kind of a basket of properties that are not attractive for redevelopment so they don't think the numbers kind of make sense and effectively they are kind of selling off those properties in order to fund uh the properties that do need developing now where the whole kind of risk and uncertainty thing comes in with certain is that we really don't know for sure what a completely redeveloped portfolio looks like for certain we don't know exactly what this final square footage is we don't know exactly what the uh final sort of average rent is going to look like and we don't know for sure how many properties they're going to have to sell so it can be a little challenging to kind of figure out what the end game does look like for ceritage so in that kind of respect it is very high uncertainty and that is certainly a reason why a lot of people are not interested in this stock but we know that uh most probably has this really nice mental model of things being high uncertainty but not necessarily high risk so when brad and i have done some of these live streams on sierra turns brad again did some great work i'm stealing a lot of stuff off brad here for this video thank you brad if you're watching um brad did some great work basically doing a property by property analysis of what that piece of real estate is worth and if you take all of the value of those real estate properties you subtract the debts brad was basically landing on about 35 dollars per share as sort of a liquidation value if you were just to sell everything that ceratouch owns and return all the cash to shareholders you're getting about 35 dollars per share uh i think cerritos trades at about 15 today and uh manageable was buying under 10 per share and there's other investors that have gone through a similar exercise with heritage as well so you have people like matthew peterson whose annual meeting is here on youtube if you want to go and check it out he's gone through and done a conservative valuation of each property that sierra jones again he's done a conservative estimate of how much they're going to have to spend in order to sort of redevelop the properties that they do want to redevelop and again he's landing on a 2025 valuation of also about thirty five dollars per share and finally the third biggest holding in monash proprietor's portfolio right now is an alibaba it's currently about a 58 59 million dollar position and represents about 12 percent of per bright investment fund's portfolio now alibaba has been one of the most hotly discussed stocks that i have ever seen on youtube i think um maybe something like tesla a couple of years ago was a really controversial one um that arguably is still very controversial and alibaba is probably the closest thing i've seen to a stock that is almost equally controversial and just gets talked about all over the place now um monash program is the second i think big investor that i saw invest in alibaba just earlier this year so firstly we had charlie munger the goat um back here portellis almanac uh we saw charlie munger buy into alibaba by the daily journal corporation we then saw managed prabria also buy into it we then saw people like ice beer phil town bill miller a long long list of other super investors by alibaba as well and alibaba is a really interesting case study because if you look at the underlying business you basically have sort of three core segments as i view it so you have the core ecommerce business which is still the vast majority of the revenue today so that includes really big e-commerce sites like t-mall and taobao you then have a one-third ownership stake in ant group or ant financial which is a very very large financial services company under which alipay falls into that that group as well and then you have a really really fast growing cloud business which is compounding at about 50 per year but it's only kind of a small slither of their revenue right now and it's only just reaching profitability and if you look at the underlying revenues and cash flows for alibaba it's continued to compound at really really fast rates yet all of a sudden you've had the stock kind of follow along and then suddenly just crash and completely diverge from the underlying results of the business and anytime you've got a business that's growing really fast and a stock that's declining and valuation start to look attractive that's when you know value investors like manager brian charlie mungo clearly start to get very interested now there are some things kind of hanging over alibaba that are kind of the reason that the stock has been down so much you have uh regulatory crackdowns on tech companies from uh the ccp from you know regulators in china uh you also have this sort of looming threat i guess of of d listing from some of the us exchanges which alibaba has kind of come out and said they will they will make every effort to comply with the things they have to comply with and you know aim to remain listed uh on the current exchanges that they kind of sit on and i think you just kind of have a general fear when it comes to investing in chinese businesses there's a lot of at least perceived kind of uncertainty if you are a us investor or investor kind of anywhere but china right now but again if you focus on the business and focus on current valuations i mean i've done intrinsic value videos on alibaba and i'm getting to sort of the mid to high 250 dollar per share or per adr technically uh range just purely for the e-commerce business that's before you even add in the stake and ant financial or even the valuation of the cloud business which is not yet contributing any cash flows to alibaba so that is it for me for this one those are miners probably three largest investments right now and hopefully that gives you a nice little overview of the business and where evaluations are currently set for each so i do hope you enjoyed the video if you did please hit like and hit subscribe uh if you're interested in contributing to the movember campaign in any way like i say no pressure at all you can support by just liking the video and leaving a comment or something to push this video out a little bit more widely because i'm going to be donating all the ad revenue from this one as well but if you do want to make a direct contribution the links will be down in the description below but like i say that's it from me for this one and i'll see you in the next video cheers
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