저자: Tom · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거의 Daily Journal이 2021년 3분기 알리바바(BABA) ADR을 약 13만 6천여 주 추가 매수해 보유량이 약 80% 늘었고, 발표자는 알리바바 내재가치가 현재 주가보다 높다고 본다. [멍거·Daily Journal 매수 동향] 1분기 2021년 처음 16만 5천여 ADR을 매수했으며 당시 가격대는 약 220~270달러, 추정 평균 약 250달러이다. 2분기는 변동이 없었고 3분기 13F에서 약 13만 6천여 ADR을 추가 매수했다. 주가가 140달러대까지 하락한 뒤 추가 매수가 이뤄졌으며, 현재 알리바바는 미국 포트폴리오의 약 20% 비중이다. [알리바바 사업 개요] 핵심은 타오바오·티몰 중심의 대형 이커머스이며, 앤트그룹 지분 3분의 1과 클라우드 사업을 보유한다. 중국 클라우드 점유율은 약 40%이나 AWS의 5분의 1 수준이고 연 약 50% 성장 중이지만 아직 잉여현금흐름 기여는 미미하다. [주가를 누른 3가지 리스크] 첫째, VIE(변동지분실체) 구조의 법적 불확실성이다. 발표자는 외국 자본 필요성 때문에 구조가 필요하다는 강세 논리를 소개한다. 둘째, 앤트그룹 IPO 연기와 자본 요건 강화로 자본집약적 사업이 되었다. 셋째, '공동부유' 명목의 기부·서약 요구로 이익이 주주에게 환원되지 않을 가능성이 있다. [내재가치 추정] 이커머스만 본 할인현금흐름(DCF) 기준 가정은 잉여현금흐름 연 13~15% 성장이며, 총 가치 약 7,000~8,000억 달러, ADR당 약 260~290달러이다. 앤트그룹 지분, 클라우드, 기타 자회사는 추가 가치(상단 옵션)로 보며 구체적 수치는 제시하지 않았다. [출연자 전망] 발표자는 멍거와 다른 슈퍼투자자들의 베팅을 이해한다고 밝히고 리스크를 인정하지만 방향에 대한 명시적 단기 예측은 없다. 2021년 10월 영상이므로 현재 시점의 주가 방향은 판단 근거가 없다. [종목 언급] 알리바바(BABA, 9988.HK): 장기 관점에서 내재가치가 주가보다 높다는 긍정 견해. 앤트그룹·클라우드: 장기 상승 옵션으로 언급.
다듬은 글
massive news out of charlie munger and the daily journal corporation just today and that is that charlie munger has added to his alibaba position quite significantly now uh charlie munger was the first really big super investor that really caught my attention when he bought into alibaba in the first quarter of 2021.
uh i'd been following the daily journal corporations 13f filings every single quarter for quite a while um but as i was doing that there wasn't really much to write home about charlie munger actually hadn't made a transaction that would show up in those 13f since about 2009 when i started looking at them so when we saw alibaba turn up in the first quarter of 2021 that caught a lot of people's attention so in this video i want to give you some of the finer details on that purchase from charlie munger we can't see exact prices or anything but we can see the price range that this year's traded for uh during the quarter in which charlie munger added to his alibaba position so we'll talk through that i'll give you the number of shares or adrs that charlie munger bought in that stock i also want to just recap some of the recent issues that really have been sending the stock down for alibaba and also give you some of my sort of updated intrinsic value estimates as well but before we get into that we do have a sponsor for today's video and today's sponsor is sharesight now i must say that as an investor in the stock market there is a lot of free information out there and a lot of free tools so there are very few services that i really pay for i have some different brokers that i use and i also use sharesight so i really use sharesight for a couple of main reasons uh the main one's really been that it allows me to track my portfolio and a lot of detail so with each of my holdings and on an overall portfolio basis i can see how much of my returns are coming from capital gains how much coming from dividends and how much are coming from fluctuations in foreign currencies with me being here in new zealand and purchasing australian and u.s stocks that is really important to try and understand and i also use it at tax time so it allows me to easily extract a couple of main reports that i can ship off to my accountant and it just makes tax time really really easy i don't have to battle with spreadsheets or go through the history of all the transactions i've had with each of my different brokerage accounts i can just give that information straight to my accountant and that's kind of job done from my perspective so those are a couple of the main reasons that i really enjoy using sharesights it also integrates with the brokers that i use so anytime i do make a change in my portfolio i can log into sharesight and those you know portfolio changes have already turned up there's no kind of manual entry for me for the most part uh it picks up any dividend payments and dividend reinvestment plans that i have as well so if you're interested in checking out sharesight you'll need to go to the link sharesight.com forward slash investing on tom uh sharesight does actually have a free version that you can use for as long as you want it does have some limits on how many holdings you can set up and what reports you can actually see but if you want to sign up for one of the premium kind of paid subscriptions using that link will get you four months free off of an annual subscription okay so let's jump straight into the news from charlie mungo around the daily journal corporation so um just as a bit of a recap we first saw alibaba shears or adrs i should say show up in the daily journal corporation's portfolio in the first quarter of 2021 and uh in that quarter we saw a purchase of 165 302 adrs into that portfolio and if we kind of look at the price range uh throughout that first quarter the price fluctuated anywhere between at the absolute peak about 270 dollars and at the absolute low probably about 220 dollars so most of the estimates floating around were saying that you know perhaps charlie munger bought at about 250 dollars per adr for alibaba um and he's kind of been quiet ever since so we saw that initial big purchase in first quarter of 2021 we saw no change in the second quarter of 2021 and uh we've just had an early 13 year filing show up for the third quarter of 2021 and there were most certainly some changes in that one so if you have been following alibaba closely uh you will know that the stock is down quite substantially and even though charlie munger was buying at 250 a share which he clearly thought was a good deal at the time uh the stock has continued to drop a lot uh you know we saw a lot of super investors like manage probably and guy spear and bill miller and uh countless others kind of continue buying alibaba as it got into sort of the 230 and 220 and 210 and 200 range and it's continued to go all the way down to a low of in the 140 range so charlie munger has clearly seen that price drop and he has added quite substantially to his position so like i said earlier he already owned about 165 000 adrs he bought an additional 136 740 so that's about an 80 or so increase in his holding in terms of she account obviously the price has come down quite a bit so it's not as big an increase in the amount of dollars that he has kind of sunk into alibaba but nonetheless that is a really substantial move in his alibaba position and after that purchase and at current prices alibaba now makes up not quite 20 percent of the daily journal corporation's uh us portfolio i say us because i know that the daily journal corporation does own some overseas positions i know they certainly own byd over in china uh it's been rumored that they maybe own some other positions as well but i don't know that for sure but of the us portfolio at least it's about a 20 position now for charlie munger and there certainly have been some changes and some issues with alibaba stock doesn't really go down 50 just for no reason and um i want to recap at a high level at least some of the things that are going on with alibaba you know manga clearly thinks that even given that all those issues kind of exist you're you know he thinks the odds are kind of stacked in your favor at current prices is what i'm kind of gathering from this recent activity from him uh but nonetheless i just want to give a bit of a recap on kind of what's going on and what has set the price down so much and uh give you kind of my view on it and my estimate of where intrinsic value kind of sits and what i think alibaba is actually worth now when it comes to alibaba you have an absolute beast of a business frankly so um you have a huge huge e-commerce business some of the numbers that come out of alibaba are just insane it will blow your mind the amount of uh sales volume that these e-commerce businesses have within alibaba the big ones being taobao and tmall uh they also have several subsidiaries they have a large number of subsidiaries uh really the big ones would be ant group so they own a one-third stake in ant group and the one that also is getting a lot of attention from really bullish investors in alibaba is also the cloud business so the cloud business has about 40 market share in china um it's still much much smaller than the us counterparts so it's less than about a fifth of the size of amazon web services so there's certainly still a long runway for growth in that particular business and it has been growing at about 50 a year over the last you know handful of years and it's really only just reaching profitability so it's not really contributing any free cash flow to the business just yet um but it looks you know like a likely candidate to do that moving forward so even though the business of alibaba is really spectacular there have been uh kind of three main issues hanging over the top of alibaba stock and uh those have been basically the vie structure so variable interest entity basically if you buy into alibaba stock in the us you might notice that i've been saying adr rather than shares throughout this video that's because you're not buying traditional shares like you would in a u.s listed company you're actually buying into a variable interest entity uh in the cayman islands and that variable interest entity basically has contracts for the uh profits of alibaba's real businesses in china so that has been in place ever since alibaba was public it's been around for a long time but i guess it's been catching a lot more attention in recent times and with some recent you know regulations and crackdowns and various kind of areas of tech in china it has got some people kind of worried about whether there may be a crackdown on that particular structure and that vie structure was put in place because in theory at least with some of these kind of key assets in china uh the chinese government didn't want foreign ownership of those assets now with ant group that is basically a really fast growing financial services business that alibaba owns a one-third stake in kind of lumped into and group is also alipay which is extremely widely used in china for you know as a kind of a payments app and it's been one of the core drivers of alibaba's e-commerce business for long-term growth as well now uh one of the crackdowns with ant recently is firstly they were meant to have an ipo uh not all that long ago which was uh put on hold and uh there's also been some kind of extra capital requirements for that business as well so um and used to kind of be like a connector between a someone who wanted to uh issue a loan and someone who wanted to borrow money they used to kind of connect those people together and collect a fee along the way so they weren't doing a lot of i guess lending themselves there's been some changes so they now have to put up some of that capital and actually back some of the loans themselves so it's made it a slightly more capital intensive business and certainly will slow the growth and financial um but it's still an absolute like powerhouse financial services business and it's certainly worth a lot of money and finally the other thing that kind of is hanging over the stock i would say recently is this donation or pledge or whatever you want to call it that not only alibaba but also tencenten i haven't followed too many businesses outside of that in china but i suspect there's going to be more to follow um those businesses have basically been making donations towards what they call common prosperity in china and i put a tweet kind of up on twitter the other day explaining kind of my view of where alibaba's at at the moment i'll talk about intrinsic value shortly but i'm basically getting to the point now where i think that the intrinsic value of alibaba is a lot higher than the price but there really are a couple of things that you need to kind of get your head around and a couple of hurdles you need to get over before i think that you can be comfortable investing in something like alibaba now one is the vi structure and you know bullish investors in alibaba will argue that you know that via structure is basically required because you know chinese businesses need foreign investment they need foreign capital because there's not enough capital in china to fuel the growth that they want to try and achieve so that's kind of the first thing i think that you need to get your head around and the second thing is these pledges and these donations you know if um alibaba are just forced to donate all of their profits to common prosperity forever and the shareholders of alibaba never actually receive any of the uh you know profits that the business produces then the intrinsic value of that business is zero if a business never makes any money it's not worth anything and um that is certainly the other thing that from my perspective you really need to uh get across the line with and i don't think there's a particularly easy answer on either of those two big hurdles that i've got in my head at the moment but there's some of the things i continue to study and try to get my head around and clearly charlie munger is very positive on this whole thing and he thinks that alibaba can work through some of these issues so he's continued to buy it along with many other super investors that have bought it also and have kind of followed charlie munger into this investment so finally i just want to talk very briefly on intrinsic value i've shared this info in kind of a couple of videos before but i'm just going to give a bit of an update i really haven't changed a lot of my assumptions or any of my assumptions really since i i lasted an intrinsic value update but i just want to i guess talk through again some of my current thoughts on the whole thing so like i mentioned earlier alibaba is a collection of various businesses the core of the business being e-commerce but they also have you know the one-third stake in and group uh they actually have quite a bit of net cash on their books at the moment as well uh and they also have this very fast-growing cloud business amongst various other investments now when it comes to ant group that is something that is certainly going through a lot of changes at the moment and i really don't feel comfortable trying to put a value on ant group uh it was rumored to be ipo in at like 300 billion us dollars making alibaba stake worth 100 billion us dollars but that ipo fell over i think there's been a lot of very real changes in that business that will bring the valuation down and i'm really just not comfortable kind of putting a number on that so when it comes to trying to figure out intrinsic value for alibaba i really just stuck basically purely to the e-commerce business because that is something i think i can get my head around even the cloud business yes there's cloud counterparts in the us that we can look at but it's really uh tricky to see what level of profitability the cloud business is going to be able to get to because it's not profitable yet and it hasn't got kind of enough scale i don't think for us to get a really good feel for what future margins and so on are likely to look like but like i say i think you can make a pretty good attempt at valuing the e-commerce business it's much more mature they've actually come out and published some very clear targets that they want to achieve uh they want to reach 2 billion customers by or any elective customers by 2036 which is about a double from today there's also some pretty good data you can look up on what the growth and spending per customer has done historically over time and i've done videos on this topic uh called you know how large can alibaba grow to try and figure out you know from those numbers what do we think an annual compounded growth rate can look like for alibaba's e-commerce business and i landed in sort of the low-to-mid kind of teens for that i think there's a chance they can do a lot more particularly if you you know factor in these other businesses but if we're focusing purely just on e-commerce i think they can probably grow uh the free cash flow for their business somewhere maybe 13 14 15 a year so if we put those through like a discounted cash flow and try to understand what the present value of future cash flows look like or the intrinsic value looks like for alibaba i'm landing anywhere from maybe 700 to 800 billion us dollars which in per share or per adr terms is about 260 to 290 and again uh the ant group stake the cloud business and all of the other subsidiaries for alibaba are kind of cream on top with this in terms of future growth and cash flow and so on so um i can really start to understand why some of these super investors including charlie munger are willing to kind of take the bet and and swing at this particular pitch there's certainly some hair on it i guess and some things you need to be well aware of you know every investment has a set of risks and alibaba is no exception to that um but nonetheless it is really interesting to kind of follow along with what these super investors are doing and no doubt it will be a very very interesting case study to look back on maybe five or ten years from today so that's it for me for this one and that is some of the recent news out of charlie munger and the daily journal corporation if you're interested in the share site offer you will need to go to the link shareside.com forward slash investing on tom but that is it for me for this video and i will see you in the next one cheers
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