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of fundstrad global advisors tom always good to have you back you have definitely kept your head about you through delta and it's paid off but as rahel points out geopolitics are a larger part of the conversation looks like we're finally there on on taper these supply crunches are not going away is any part of you looking for more chop rather than less uh carl that's great question all the things you've described are wall of worry and markets actually do better when investors are worried and hesitant because it is keeping cash on the sidelines and therefore stocks can react to positive news i think that's a situation we're in today um you know we wrote about it earlier this week but if you look at money market funds raised by both retail institutions retail investors were raising cash in august at a piece you haven't seen it at all in 2021 and then if you look at things like sentiment they they got more bearish than any time in 2021 so i think we are definitely in a risk-on environment it's healthy to see this wall of worry but it's also important for things to be on the margin better and that's what we're seeing right now yeah i wonder where you are too on on 2022 s p earnings uh baml today uh does 215 dollars they say we see downside risk to consensus eps amid rising inflationary pressure dan niles a friend of the show says he's looking for multiple rate hikes in 22 why is that not a liability if it plays out uh those are definitely things to keep an eye on inflation can be both earnings friend and a headwind and then as dan's talking about there there are other sort of external events that could take place but when i look at 2022 um i think people are overstating the risk from labor cost because uh where we're seeing inflation is really in the travel and leisure space where that might be 25 of employment but it's less than seven percent of labor income so so there can be inflation there but it's actually very mild on in aggregate and from an earnings perspective i'm surprised bama's number is so low i mean i think if you look at the operating leverage talked about by companies today smb earnings next year could be as high as 240.
so i think it could be way above consensus and and of course tech is going to be a big part of that tom you're bullish on crypto you're bullish on the overall markets what would change your mind what would it be a big rally and a shift in sentiment so that more people got as positive as you are uh that's right john if uh if short interest were to collapse and people were bullish then we know that a lot of the firepower is used up on markets but i would guess that we'd be at much higher levels if that was the case and i think if if covid and sort of our comfort level that deteriorates so that the economy faces downside risk i think that's a headwind but so far uh it really looks like the soft surveys like the sentiment have dropped a lot more than the actual data which means people have overreacted on the market side to covet thomas here joe i always have to ask you about bitcoin after touching 50 000 it's below 47k this morning what's the next catalyst for the crypto ecosystem at large uh well there's a lot of i mean foremost i'd say bitcoin and digital assets have really performed admirably in the face of what looked like a pretty big crackdown from china and from us so i think there's true underlying resilience and of course bitcoin now i think is technically recovered to some key levels i think that there's quite a lot of catalyst into urine because you know number one it looks like products like nfts which really do improve the usefulness of crypto have grown in adoption i mean some of the numbers are really impressive and you're starting to see some crossover investing and then more importantly i think that you know when you look at outside the us crypto is your risk on assets so i think that the fact that both china equities and crypto or rallying shows you that outside the us there's actually a risk on appetite as well two more questions from me tom i think one of your best calls of the year was really nailing that bottom on the 10-year yield around 120 we did have a few different desks this year now bring in their year-end forecast uh b of a today goes from 190 to 155 i wonder where you are on the 10-year if you think that chart's going to continue to go up to the upside and then also on chop in august you said seasonality made it difficult to be a hero and i wonder if that narrative changes as we work our way into the fall uh yeah both good questions and uh on the yield we've been watching it closely it does seem to me that uh economic outlook is actually more resilient than consensus i think people overreacted to like you know the consumer sentiment surveys and so i we think there is upside to the yield and i think the one five might even be low and then with regard to chop uh i i think that the move in the tenure along with the drop in the vix and then now with oil recovering pretty steadily and now we're getting into september which historically is actually a great month for equities when you have a strong first half i think that the sort of chop is ending i think september should be a really strong period for market so i you know i'd expect to rally at least for the next six weeks a pretty strong rally oh interesting finally you've done as we've said before a lot of great high frequency work on on delta and covet in general uh you've been highly attuned to the rollover that we're starting to see in the south do you worry about um a surge in the north as kids go back to school uh yes carl i mean i think one of the big risks is the transmissibility of delta um i think in the northeast it does look like schools are really pushing towards either restricting activities for those who aren't vaccinated or trying to use some sort of mitigation measures i think that should help but you know back to school is uncertain but if we look at the southeast last year there wasn't much mitigation taking place and there wasn't really a back to school surge in the southeast so i i'm somewhat hopeful that this what we're seeing is a peak of delta now across almost 18 states maybe 20 now uh it is really the last surge we'll see for the year yeah well the governor of illinois just a few moments ago announced a statewide indoor mask mandate regardless of vaccination status so maybe the mitigation will be different in parts of the country closer to where we are tom appreciate it always very much thanks a couple of other
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