저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 12월 기준 테슬라 S&P500 편입(12/21) 앞두고 인덱스 매수 수요와 단기 매도 위험을 설명. 테슬라 550달러 이하 10만달러, 500달러 이하 25만달러, 450달러 이하 50만달러 추가 매수 계획을 밝힘. 니오·샤오펑은 PER 기준 테슬라보다 비싸고 마진이 낮아 리스크가 크다고 평가하나 계속 매수 중. 중국 상장폐지 위험은 약 3~5%로 낮게 봄.
다듬은 글
ev sales are expected to hit 20 of all car sales in china in 2025 that's up from just 5 in 2020 and the same is expected in the united states holy smokes this is a big industry shift hey everyone me kevin here in this video i want to break down my strategy for investing in neo x-bang and tesla many of you know tesla is my biggest stockholding and it's been my favorite obviously because it's gone to the moon it just keeps going but we've got some serious things to talk about first i'm going to talk about the s p 500 inclusion risk for tesla and my strategy surrounding tesla how much am i going to buy at what price breaks we're going to break that down in this video then i'm going to compare the values of each and my strategy so we're going to look at the difference between tesla neo and x-ping we're going to do some simple comparisons we're not going to go crazy deep here but they'll give you the bottom lines then i'm going to talk about the de-listing risk for the chinese stocks and this is an important update to some of my other videos that i've done on this so let's get right into it all right december 18th will be the last day any of us can buy shares of tesla before tesla joins the s p 500 on monday december 21st behrens believes that tesla will make up about a 1.5 weight in the s p 500 with a market cap of around 600 billion this means that index funds will have to buy up about 17 percent of tesla's outstanding shares to follow the s p 500 this is the point of index funds anyway their goal is to match the s p 500 and what it's doing now many of these shares will likely therefore be bought exactly on december 21st even though funds could buy a little bit before and after then they would in theory differentiate or sort of deviate rather from the benchmark and they don't want to do that basically if you're trying to track what the s p 500 is doing it's bad to try to make some trades before or after something changes most of them my guess are going to be trading on the 21st given that tesla has risen about 55 since s p 500 inclusion was announced many of us believe that millions of stock traders and their moms and their dads and their children and their cousins are all riding tesla into friday hoping it goes to the moon so that way they can dump all of these tesla shares to all the people investing in the vanguard funds and all the etf or index fund holders that are now going to be buying tesla that weren't buying tesla before who can buy tesla shares at these insanely exorbitant exorbitant prices potentially even as high as 700 or 750 if tesla ends up rallying on thursday and friday like some people expect dump them to these index funds on monday and who cares if tesla crashes you just made your profit and you rode the tesla wave that's that's the trader theory right now but the problem is you never know you never know what the market is going to do and it's entirely possible that the market is going to do the opposite of what we fear now i personally don't blame you if you're trying to ride the tesla wave to make some money because there's going to be a swing my guess though is they're going to be a lot of people that are going to make a lot of money and they're going to be a lot of people probably an equal amount of people who are going to get hurt but what i'm doing personally is i'm keeping money on the side just in case tesla does end up crashing after the tesla stock split on august 31st we had one or two more days of a tesla run then tesla decided hey our share price is so high let's raise five billion dollars in cash which they also just did uh last week as well but anyway back september beginning of september they go let's raise five billion in cash and starting september third tech started selling off for about three weeks it was a pretty painful september tesla ended up down about 37 from its peak and some fear that this is exactly the same thing that could happen now and if tesla falls 37 percent from 630 dollars where it is now approximately that means tesla would be just under 400 per share again at 396 dollars which is still insanely high relative to where tesla used to be but it's also a big painful drop for who for anybody basically who owns tesla shares now knowing that this is a possibility it would probably be a smart thing to short tesla stock or to play options on this uh because well i kind of think there's a greater chance that it's going to follow then it's not going to fall but i'm the idiot who's not going to do that because i don't want to tie up my money on options and short-term gains right now just not the situation i want to be in for the end of the year instead i'd rather see tesla fall and then take that cash that i had on the sidelines and use it to buy at specific price targets now i can make a whole separate video about why i'm not you know selling calls or selling puts i've been asked this regularly in the investing course in the live streams and i answer the questions in detail but for the point of this video let's make it very simple if tesla falls below 550 per share i will buy 100 000 of tesla stock if it falls under 500 i will buy 250 000 of tesla stock this means i'm not going to be bashful like if if it goes to 550 i will buy 100k total right away if it goes under for 2 500 hey dollar cost averaging down boom going in heavier 250.
if it falls under 450 per share i will throw another 500 grand into the stock which means i could literally be in for somewhere around uh you know 100 000 plus 250 is 350 plus 500 is 850 000 if tesla falls under 400 per share again i would be willing don't do this but i would be willing to do whatever i need to do including selling some other shares to put an additional million dollars into tesla stock that is how insanely maybe stupidly bullish i am about tesla and you all know i hate selling so those are my parameters we'll see what happens now i have not bought tesla individually since the day before the s p inclusion was announced i specifically remember that day thinking ah it's a little red day today all right let's do a little bit of a nipple nibble into the stock and i thought a little bit that's kind of usually what you hear me say in the live streams in the morning like oh all right it's red let's buy a little bit of this today let's buy a little bit of that today no i'm not going to buy that because of this you know i could give you my theories on long run investing here unfortunately over the last you know well this year the theories have been pretty dang profitable so i'm very grateful i mean knock on wood that that that luck continues but anyway to me 633 or wherever it is now for tesla is a great price for 2022.
don't get me wrong i'm not anti-tesla here and even though there are some quality control issues with tesla it's like please fix these things yes maybe do shut down the model s and model x line at fremont for two weeks so maybe you can fix some of these production issues who knows retool your lines whatever but uh if you want my opinions on tesla's quality just type this into youtube meet kevin teslastockdanger full details and i go through all of that i even go through a lawsuit about the quality issues watch my video on that it's really good especially if you're a tesla investor you got to know that perspective and if you agree with it that's good that'll give you a defense to kind of the quality control issues if you disagree then don't buy tesla okay for now the short answer is i'm buying the dip hardcore the more it dips the more i'm buying moving on let's talk neo and xping and then let's touch on that de-listing risk all right so first neo and xping i like these as i call them balancing stocks to my test lab they're actually my favorite ev stocks to balance tesla out with a little bit number one they produce an actual product that's good step number one i know lee autos is an option too but it's it's just not as much of a focus for me right now as neo and xbing are a separate video needed for that all three tesla neon x-wing they're obviously automotive manufacturers they are ev makers electric vehicle makers and uh they all have autonomous driving systems uh a the autonomous driving systems by the way crucial i do i will not invest in some eevee company that does not have autonomous driving it's i don't care about that anybody can do that i need the autonomous driving technology all three of these have also had secondary offerings in the last few weeks here to raise money now obviously we know that all of the ev stocks have been up substantially since the election and neo and x-bang hit well currently the eevee market where tesla is not really focused and that is on quality perfection tesla doesn't really do that and neo and xbing do try to focus on that they're trying to get that that higher end customer that's willing to pay a little bit more for that higher quality service obviously these are also chinese manufacturers they do not sell in the united states yet neo also focuses on something called battery swaps which is really cool it's something that tesla tried out but decided not to do neo might even at some point in the future sell cars without a battery so you can literally go swap a battery in and lease it and then just keep renewing your lease on sort of a monthly basis for this battery now obviously you'd probably have to start with some kind of lease to get some kind of battery when you first buy the car but but yes if you can picture a sales contract you could in theory buy a neo car in the future without a battery which would lower the cost of it and then pay for the battery as sort of a monthly subscription service so that would give you the opportunity to have potentially a cheaper loan or cheaper monthly payment on the car or maybe you pay cash for the car and it's cheaper and then you lease the battery it's kind of an interesting model separating out the battery and creating that as a subscription service now batteries are expensive so neo's potentially taking a little bit of a risk there and that it's not like it's a software as a service where you're just dealing with software and some of your expenses are like some customer service people picking up the phone these are actually batteries which decay over time obviously but the more batteries get better and last longer the less of a risk factor that would be for neo and i think that's the direction we're going so i do like that for neo uh i i don't see that as a big downfall though for tesla not having that uh tesla did try that in america and it seems like americans don't like giving other people their battery and getting somebody else's used battery right they like their own battery so maybe that was just a cultural difference as to why why it didn't really work out in america now x-bang also focuses on quality like neo but what's really interesting about x-ping is they're more interested out of all three of these in getting lidar integrated into their autonomous driving vehicles and this is something that tesla refuses to do even neo by the way has hinted at using lidar for these those sort of edge case scenarios in the autonomous driving and honestly i'm not convinced yet that we don't need lidar aka maybe we need lidar there are definitely some odd cases where when i drive my tesla on uh autonomous driving you got to take over because the car is like no no no no no you don't get it do you right uh but then again we don't have a full release yet of self-driving so you know we'll see if elon's systems can handle self-driving completely without lidar so far so good but we'll see how it ends up many say that this won't be an issue at all for tesla just give the algorithm time to learn and get better and better the machine learning is already so good and so many millions of miles are being driven without lidar will be fine i'm inclined to believe that but i you know i'd like to have a little bit of a hedge too this is also why i am not investing particularly in any kind of uh like individual lidar stock there are a few uh there are a few individual lidar stocks that are kind of like all the rage right now and i did throw those so i can read you those names here really quick so luminaire that's l-u-m-i-n-a-r is a company that conducted a spec merger and they sell lidar products but they're pretty new in terms of the company the other one that's more popular right now seems to be velodyne v-e-l-o-d-y-n-e also a lidar manufacturer i generally don't go into part manufacturers too heavily which i guess is kind of ironic because i am investing in amd in nvidia and qualcomm but uh yeah generally materials and and uh products like this i don't get into i get into more of that finished product and i'm sure there are many of you who can add some commentary about other lidar stocks you're interested in but i thought i'd mention those now when it comes to neo and explaining in my strategy both of these stocks have sold off after i made my november 23rd video saying i'd like to buy more of these stocks but they're way too pricey uh i don't know if i caused that bubble to pop which if i did and they caused do any stress i'm really sorry about that now as these stocks have sold off and apparently hit a low point on monday i did end up picking up more shares i've probably been more heavy on neo than x ping but i've got about over 300k invested in both of them right now which is still you know scratches the surface in terms of what i have invested in tesla but you know there are also foreign companies i don't own the vehicle i don't know the product as well obviously because i i also can't fly to china right now i got this thing called the pandemic going on so anyway i do have some long-term calls on neo not on xbang and if you watch my buying alerts uh you know either on this channel when i post them or immediately in the course on building your wealth through owning stocks and the psychology of money you'll get my alerts immediately if you're in any of the courses like the real estate investing course of course you'll also get the uh i'll talk about my what my trades were in the day in the live streams every day anyway all those kevin.com okay so you know i'm invested in neo and x ping but what's the scoop here in terms of valuation like how do we compare these to tesla so let's do that right now neo and x ping they both sell for a decent premium over their competitor tesla and the easiest way to estimate this first off is just to compare them based on their future price to earnings ratio and i'll just make this simple here with a simple comparison neo in my opinion sells for about 150 times their 2023 earnings their net earnings their bottom line they sell for about 150 times that earnings for the entire year uh whereas tesla sells for about 40 to 50 times their 2023 earnings so you're paying about three to four times as much money per net earnings at neo and x ping as you are at tesla now i know i kind of lump neo and x ping there we're not going to go into spreadsheets in this video video is already long enough but things look a little bit better when you look at a multiple of revenue this is a little bit dangerous though and i'll show you why behrens says that neo is projected to hit a 4.6 billion dollar revenue figure in 2021 and will hit 2.1 billion in revenue at x ping and at tesla we'll hit 45 billion in revenue now what's really cool about this is if we line them up and we'll pull them up on the ipad here take a look at this tesla has a market cap of 600 billion with 45 billion in revenue so that's about a 13.3 times 2021 revenue neo has a market cap of 61 billion with 4.6 uh billion in 2021 revenue expected which is about 13.3 times so these are actually oddly aligned that's really cool but there's a danger i'll tell you about that in a second x-man has a market cap of about 39 billion in 2021 which is about 18.5 times earnings so if if you were to rank these in terms of value you'd have tesla you know based on this multiple here you'd have tesla neo actually tied and xping being the most expensive if you go based off price to earnings tesla is the cheapest by far out of all of these and then you've got neo and then you've got xbang which is slightly more expensive on a p e ratio now uh future p e ratio that is so what makes neo potentially dangerous is margin see this multiple is gross gross revenue right that's the that's the top line number but you got to go through the funnel so to speak and tesla's funnel right now is more at scale and more efficient than neos so neo has finally gotten their automotive gross margin up to about 14.9 to 15 this is good in fact i talked about that when i first started talking about neo i'm like hey look they've only got a five percent margin right now but we know this is going to go up into the mid teens very soon i guess 12 they got up to 15 which is great tesla sits around 23 to 24 without credits now i i don't think that just because neo went from 5 to 15 that they're going to be able to go to 15 to 23 i think that's going to be the hard part like they just got the easy part now the hard part is getting that incremental increase in production margin so to speak now neo bulls say that neo is going to become more efficient and i believe that especially in their partnership with their automotive manufacturer called jac this is a company that is 50 owned by volkswagen and 50 owned by the chinese government which is very different from tesla's vertical integration model which at tesla and this is where the tesla bulls come out and they say well tesla runs everything any kind of increasing efficiency tesla gets that extra profit if jac gets more efficient at their manufacturing plan they share that profitability increase with neo uh and so you've kind of got this fundamental difference here that makes them both a little bit more difficult to compare but i will say because of this difference in margin which is just a fact that we have right now tesla out of all three of these even at today's ridiculous price is the cheapest and that might be hard to consider given that tesla's 660 and the other ones are in the 40 but remember the actual dollar sign and price number is very different from the actual amount of earnings you're getting for what you're spending and so obviously this is where uh tesla it makes sense that tesla has the best value out of all three of these but i'm bullish on ev and therefore i'm bullish on all of these for right now my strategy is putting five times as much money into tesla as i'm putting into neo and xping combined that's my rule of thumb but i am buying neo and xping i bought a bunch yesterday and i will continue to buy these i also bought some options i mentioned on neo none yet on xping both of these are higher than my price targets i said that i'd prefer to be buying these in the 30s neil briefly hit 39 which i was able to go shopping for i did buy some neo at 39 but my average cost i you know i started buying neo around 24.
i did buy some neo as it was falling in kind of the higher 40s so i'd probably say my average cost is somewhere around 35 which is closer to my target but i've been nibbling and some of my purchases have been higher closer to 50 even a share but that's okay because as the stock was falling i was picking up more and my goal is to get more money built out in this position even if my average cost basis goes up a little bit over my target now there are fears that the chinese companies like neo and x-bang may disallow access to the pcaob auditors to inspect their companies this gets a little tricky so i'm just going to bottom line this neo and x-bang are chinese firms congress just passed a bill that chinese firms that are listed on u.s stock exchanges must allow pc aob registered auditors to be audited it's kind of like the auditor is getting audited well xbang and neo use pcaob registered auditors but they don't allow another auditor to come in to check on their auditor basically but like if you just ignore that whole summary there basically unless xpig and neo change their mind xsping and neo would get delisted from the u.s stock exchange now right now neo says they're compliant and they shouldn't be delisted but they also technically have not yet allowed access to the auditors of the pcaob registered auditors it's tricky now the communist party in china does say that they are optimistic they will be able to strike a deal with biden and that none of this is going to be an issue i personally believe this to me i think the odds of neo and x-pin getting de-listed are very low maybe three to five percent so for me i'm gonna be watchful but i will not not buy these stocks because of that i'm going to keep them maybe a little smaller of a percentage of my portfolio because i got tesla instead but to me just something to keep an eye on yes there is still a problem keep an eye on that it could be a big negative catalyst it could also be in theory a very good positive catalyst once that gets solved by biden's administration and his relationship with china so we'll see how that goes so my goal right now is simply to wait for the s p 500 inclusion let's see what happens keep this in mind too this is interesting if tesla ends up crashing it's entirely possible that people are going to think something is wrong in the ev sector they won't necessarily localize that to tesla and it's entirely possible that neo and x-pin could sell off as well so i want to keep some money aside got that 35 cost basis on on neo willing to keep adding to that even if it pushes my cost basis a bit and uh ideally though have money ready for next week let's see what happens next week and you know what if they don't dip no problem next time they dip that's when i'll go shopping again so there's my pov just straight up putting everything out there on neo x ping and tesla soon you
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