저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
코로나 위기로 대출 심사가 강화되며 주택 구매 수요가 줄어 가격 하락 압력이 생길 수 있다고 진단. 위기 시 가격 하락을 노려 할인 매물(웨지딜)이나 하락 반등 주식을 매수하라고 권하며, 연준의 화폐 발행이 계속된다고 가정해 자산 매수 전략을 제시함. 본인은 붕괴 시 주식을 매수 중이며 필요하면 주식을 팔아 부동산으로 옮길 계획이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
this is exactly what I'm doing to survive this crisis hey everyone Kevin here things are pretty frustrating right now when it comes to the whole mortgage crisis and the world of money because see the way things are supposed to work is when times are good we make a lot of money and we save it so that when things go bad we can go buy a bunch of real estate and a bunch of stocks but the problem is now a lot of us are left without jobs a lot of us can't make our rent payment a lot of us can't make our mortgage payments and because of that banks are now tightening up like crazy and then look lor don't want to give money to anybody else either because we're hurting too and the government's trying to print money like crazy to go no no it's ok banks it's ok but the bank's like no this is the pretty crappy and so the effect of this is we're sitting around going wait a minute we're supposed to be able to buy stocks at the bottom of the market we're supposed to be able to invest in real estate when prices are cheap once prices fall if there's gonna be a wave of foreclosures but what now banks are making it harder to get loans except of course for rich people or people with a lot of money if you've got a lot of money the banks will still lend to you but if you don't and you're trying to get started it's getting a lot harder so today I'm gonna break this video down into a few parts number one what the heck is going on then we're going to talk number two what the impact of this problem is and we'll talk pricing and real estate and so on and so forth then we'll finish off by talking about what we should do how are we gonna get through this how can we make money at a time when it seems like the only thing that's happening is the rich are getting richer and people without assets or wealth are getting left behind again because let's be real a $1,200 stimulus check isn't gonna turn us into millionaires and if you take to Twitter you'll see that most people seem to be spending their money on shoes and sunglasses which both of those don't seem to make a lot of sense given that we're stuck at home JPMorgan Chase just announced that quote due to economic uncertainty we are making temporary changes that will allow us to more closely focus on serving our existing customers aka they are making it harder to get a loan a chase right now in fact unless you are already an existing customer the odds are you're gonna have to be coming in with 20% down payments and a credit score of at least 700 to be able to buy a house through Chase now Chase has never been one of the most competitive mortgage lenders I've never really seen them chase business out in my area here in California I've seen other banks like Bank of America or Wells Fargo chase the mortgage market a whole lot more so it's not super surprising that Chase is tightening because they've already been kind of tight but unfortunately it's not just Chase or Wells Fargo is tightening lending standards and you know what if we just zoom out all of the way look at this according to the mortgage credit availability index your ability to get a mortgage as declined by a total of sixteen point one percent in March but we can break this down even further and then things look even nastier it is now twenty four point two percent harder to get a conventional loan and thirty six point nine percent harder to get a jumbo loan if you're going for a loan like an FHA loan there's only a decrease of about six point six percent and mortgage availability for these but overall the entire mortgage industry is tightening up which is like the worst time for this to happen because realistically if good opportunities come up now and you still have a job and you're able to buy something or you're able to go back to work within the next month or two and then you could go buy something now's the time to do that when there's fear in the marketplace and there are opportunities to be had but unfortunately getting a mortgage is getting more and more difficult by the day in fact a lot of people who are already in escrow are finding that lenders are now doing what are called a last day final VOE or final verification of employment which means the very last day before the lender actually sends your bank's loan money to the escrow company so you can close on a property they're calling up your boss going yo that's Kevin still work here we're about to send over some money to Kevin oh he does he got load em bank loan denied yeah that's literally happening right now and I mean in some senses you can't really blame the lenders because the last thing lenders want right now is people getting a bank loan for a house then the last day they lose their job and the bank doesn't find out and then as soon as the loan closes as soon as the person buys the house they get right on the phone with a lender I go hey I need mortgage forbearance and then the lender goes no problem we got all these options for you that are gonna screw you and set you right up for foreclosure I've made videos on exactly the kind of crap these banks are pushing I'll link some of those down below so if you're thinking about getting mortgage of forbearance watch those videos before you do this kind of loan tightening and these last-minute cancelations are going to have a massive effect on the marketplace because we're gonna lose buyers and any time you lose more buyers than you lose sellers you end up with a basic supply and demand problem you end up with more people who want to sell then can buy so in order to sell sellers must have to drop their prices this is only exacerbated by the potential of foreclosures and short sales hitting the market now right now I personally do not expect us to see a wave of foreclosures and short sales as long as this whole disaster and ideally by July or August if it continues on beyond that yeah we're gonna have more issues this is exactly why I told everybody in my real estate investing course in our live streams and in lectures that I'm releasing for this pandemic that if you are buying real estate right now the only kind of real estate that you want to be buying right now is either off market real estate where you're getting a deal because it hasn't even tested on the market because yes some places are still getting multiple offers when they hit the market or you're somehow buying a property below market value which is generally the easiest way to build massive wealth in real estate getting a wedge deal something that is worth $300,000 that you could buy for 200 because it needs some paint carpet it's got some smelly mold and mom and dad who go look at it with you go oh this place that's gross why would you buy it and that's exact why I would buy it because people that look at places that are stinky and gross go oh yes I can't move into that place exactly that's where the money is that's the kind of place you buy right now is not the time to buy land to buy apartment buildings to buy commercial real estate all of these things well first of all apartments are priced to perfection they had been for quite a while many more commercial tenants are refusing to pay their leases for their office spaces because they're working at home and they don't have the money to pay for their mortgage and their commercial lease for their work like insurance agents or real estate agents or people working in strip malls or whatever these things are all shut down and I certainly wouldn't be speculating on land development or flips right now you need to insulate yourself against the potential of prices shifting downwards which by the way some of you have asked me hey Kevin I heard you mentioned that you got life insurance for yourself and Lauren are they actually still issuing life insurance policies during the outbreak and surprisingly I checked with them the answer is yes so if you want a free quote use that link it down below but should also get your two free stocks with weeble because why not just make sure you deposit $100 and that way you'll get the best two free stocks possible of course it's a random draw which means some of you get $15 some of you get $10 some of you get $100 some of you get $1,000 it's like a lottery ticket here's just an easy way to picture insulating yourself with your money if you buy a place for 200 you put 20 grand into it and you're into it for 220 it's worth 300 today even if it falls 10 percent to 270 or it falls 20 percent to 240 you're still up in value those are the deals you want to look for right now those are the deals we analyze every day when we go live in the private live streams but here's exactly the data as to why we might see some more issues 43% of people put 20% or more down when they buy real estate that means if they buy a house for $100,000 they're putting at least $20,000 down but that means 57% of people are putting less than 20% down that means they're putting down 5% 10% 15% three and a half percent down FHA now while it's still possible to get these lower down payment moans it's harder that means for this 57% group of people the majority it's becoming much harder to get alone on top of that that 43% that I told you puts 20% or more down a lot of those people get that money from the house they currently live in by either refinancing taking out a credit line or selling the property which means a lot of money is tied to real estate in terms of the new buyer pool people either have 20% down which a lot of those people are getting it from either stocks or their home that they already own or they're putting less money down but those standards are getting tighter so your entire buyer pool is getting reduced dramatically on all angles here and so what are we to do about this why don't we just save cash sit on the sidelines and do nothing well you might do that but there are really two paths to go here to make sure that you could build wealth during a crisis like this number one is the path you take if you believe the Federal Reserve is going to stop printing money if the Federal Reserve stops printing money we might enter a deflationary period where prices go down and in which case you'd be best served by having cash and potentially a mix of gold and Bitcoin option number two if you believe the Federal Reserve is going to keep printing money and even though inflation is reducing we're seeing less inflation we believe we're still going to be in the positive territory of inflation that is we still think prices will go up we think more money will be printed and we think the Fed will continue to prop up the economy then the only way not to get left behind aka the only way to get ahead is to get into assets here are three ways to get into assets I'm going to go through the number one the super easiest way to do it but not my preferred way then I'm going to talk about the next easiest way also relatively safe and then we want to talk about the more aggressive way to do it let's talk now remember only go through one of these three options to buy assets if you believe that the United States is going to keep printing money the Federal Reserve and you think prices will go up in the long term like stocks will go up in the long term or real estate will go up in the long term if you think in the long term that in like 15 years prices are going to be lower than a Hodel bitcoin look I'm not I'm not a proponent and I'm not anti Bitcoin I just don't know enough about Bitcoin to talk about Bitcoin let's talk about these three asset purchases though especially if you're a total beginner total beginner safest possible way to get into assets though not my favorite dollar cost average index funds on red days here's the easiest way to know if the markets down type into Google D o W space stock hit enter if you see green it's generally a Green Day if you see red it's a red day and it could be a good day to buy then you want to log into something you can actually buy index funds with like chase you invest if you have a bank with Chase or alternatively go to met Kevin calm / m1 so that you could really appreciate it if you did it by the way use my referral link to join m1 Finance where you can easily invest in index funds automatically great platform by the way they also have a checking account that gives you a 1% yield and I have my little debit card here although I haven't used it yet because I've been on lockdown and generally not the biggest fan of using debit cards the next safest option in my opinion is keep your money in cash and get pre-approved to buy a wedge deal a wedge deal is going to generally be in this market a single-family house that you can rent out for something similar to your monthly payment and the property is in a distressed cosmetic condition and appears to be selling for below with everything else in the neighborhood is selling for I just did a walkthrough on a two-bedroom one-bath house in Santa Barbara and I know these prices are crazy so you know don't flame me in the comments for saying these prices is just honest like this this just happened I went through a two-bedroom one-bath house that was listed for $589,000 needed cosmetic work every 2-bedroom 1-bath in the neighborhood is selling for 800 thousand to $1,000,000 these deals exist yes you're going to have to be competitive yes other people make offers don't get discouraged though if other people are making offers it's a sign that you're actually getting a good deal below market value see if I buy that two-bedroom one-bath house even if I pay six hundred twenty five thousand dollars for it and even if I spend thirty forty thousand dollars fixing it up and I'm into it for six sixty or whatever real estate prices would have to fall almost twenty five percent for me to be breakeven like I'm still protected from loss because I got a good deal that is a great way to buy an asset and obviously the goal is not to flip the goal is to hold these properties for the long term so that way the next recession you could use the equity in these deals to again go shopping for more deals so if you're thinking real estate the only option on the table right now is something that's substantially below market value now here's the third and more aggressive option this is what I'm mixed between I'm between number two and number three this is exactly what I'm doing to survive this crisis every red day in the market I am buying bounce-back stocks stocks that I believe are selling substantially below market value and I am buying these like crazy some of these examples are Tesla when it was selling for $400 that I was buying when it was 40 to 45 fifty dollars fifty eight dollars a share these are trades I talk about not only on this channel but also in my private live streams every day at 9:00 a.m.
when the market is open so plenty of opportunities there but the reason I'm buying stocks aggressively right now is because I think a lot of them have been substantially oversold so every time there's a red day I buy as that equity is building I am looking for good deals and as a good deal a good wedge deal from number two comes up I can move money out of stocks and into these good deals in real estate so if I don't find a really good deal in real estate I'm at least writing the stock wave if I find a great deal in real estate which deals regularly come up and I'm expecting even more deals to be coming up soon as this crisis evolved I could move money from stocks to real estate now I have not sold stocks in over 10 years the very first time I sold stock was when I was sold stock at 18 years old to fund my down payment for the house that I bought when I was 19 years old with Lauren the stock move here is obviously much more aggressive the real estate move in my opinion is still very safe seeing that's the basic reason I love wedge deals so much is because I know I'm gonna get some comments that are like oh well Kevin the market is not gonna fall 25% it's gonna fall 35% or 40% fine but if that happens worst case scenario I would rather have bought a house 25% below market value so that way if the market value does fall say 35% I'm only down 10% rather than having paid market value for something and then seeing it go down 35% so get deals either off market or only buy wedge deals I'm not touching any kind of speculative opportunity is no land no development no apartment buildings no commercial I don't see opportunities in any of that right now if you can find a panic to seller though that thinks we're going for the big double-dip that's the person you want to buy from and look I get the fears that there might be a double-dip recession I heard literally the same words in 2010 and 2011 when I started getting into real estate when I bought my first house with Lauren we each combined the $9,000 we had used $18,000 to buy a foreclosure for $300,000 and since then we were able to turn that $18,000 into over $250,000 in net worth on just that one property that enabled me that start enabled me to build a and I'm only 28 years old which means you can do this as well these are the principles I teach in my investing program but think about it this way now if we have no assets it's very difficult to go shopping for good deals it's very difficult to buy bounce-back stocks it's very difficult to buy real estate deals if we don't have a lot of cash I don't have a lot of cash sitting around because I usually invest my cash but what I do have are a lot of assets with a lot of value in them and be cuz of that I could borrow against that value and go shopping that's the name of the game in the United States if you believe the Fed is going to keep printing money obviously if you think we're going to go in a deflationary direction you don't want to go with this direction but if we look at history there's no indication the Fed is gonna stop printing money so I'm going to keep buying wedge deals I'm gonna follow my mix of method two and three let me know which one of these you prefer method 1 2 or 3 or if you're in the deflationary camp and you think everything's gonna go bankrupt and the bubble is gonna explode and the world's coming to an end I want to hear from you as well let me know what your thoughts are down in the comments
Comments 0