저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준의 Main Street 대출 프로그램(최대 6,750억 달러, 4년 만기, 금리 2.5~4%)이 직원 1만명 미만 또는 매출 25억 달러 미만 상장사에 안전망이 될 수 있다고 주장. 대상으로 Dave & Buster's, N-Phase, Marcus Corp, Tupperware, Denny's, Redfin, Yelp, Spirit Airlines 등을 언급하며 일부 종목 매수 관심을 밝힘. 확정 수익이 아니라고 단서를 달았으나 개별 종목 상승 기대를 반복함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here boy with all the crazy news going on it is a wonder how we're possibly gonna keep track of it all well that's what you subscribe to the channel for today I'm gonna talk to you about a crazy and new program that the Federal Reserve announced that could actually skyrocket a few stocks that I found that perfectly line up to use with the Federal Reserve just announced now no guarantees that those stocks are going to skyrocket but let me introduce this program to you because it's not being talked about much in the media right now in fact a lot of us are focused understandably so on ourselves our stimulus Jack where's our AI DL grant come on our one to ten thousand dollars that was supposed to be ten grand right and then then we've got small businesses focused on the PPP companies with less than 500 employees well the Federal Reserve just approved something for all companies between one employee to ten thousand employees and a lot of companies under ten thousand employees are listed on the stock exchange I guess I shouldn't say a lot I should say a lot of companies over five hundred and under ten thousand are listed on the stock exchange which creates some opportunities for us given that they're about to get some of that sweet sweet helicopter money - all right let's get into this oh and also I'm expecting Monday to be a crazy day in the stock market so make sure you click the link down below and join me in my live stream that I'll be doing on Monday morning so we can cover the market together and talk about it the Federal Reserve just announced the main street a lending program where they will offer up to six hundred seventy five billion dollars in loans with four-year terms with interest rates between two and a half to four percent depending on what the Federal Reserve's rate is that's why I put plus but it's zero right now so two and a half to four percent for any company with less than ten thousand employees or less than two and a half billion dollars in revenue which then we start thinking to ourselves hmm which companies qualify for this and since it's a loan which companies qualify with these criteria here less than 10,000 employees in less than 2.5 billion in revenue that are also listed on the stock exchange that are also in desperate need of cash and that have also been pummeled with the risk of bankruptcy in other words here's a potential safety net for those companies let's get into those oh and just a heads up even though this is called the Main Street lending program you have to borrow at least 1 million dollars and on top of that you have to pay it back so this is not another paycheck protection program where you get a forgivable loan to maintain your payroll this is more or less for the companies that you would find on Main Street they're not talking about the house you live in so here's how I began the search and then I'm gonna break down with some of my favorites from this the easiest thing that I started with is I went to the Russell 2000 index that is in index of a bunch a small cap stocks so it's kind of like shooting fish in a barrel because most of these companies qualify most these companies have less than 10,000 employees and less than two and a half billion in revenue now just a heads up this is revenue not net income which if it was net income way more companies would qualify for this but unfortunately this is revenue so let me start by possibly the elephant in the room because there's a particular company whose stock is basically going to zero because there have been a lot of news articles about them potentially going bankrupt AMC Theaters so here's what happens these days when you just google the letters AMC like the movie theater chain AMC Theaters in talks to higher bankruptcy law firm as shutdown lingers AMC movie theater chain faces bankruptcy blah blah blah blah more and more the same this does not look very good for AMC and if we pop in the stock the stock has been quite punished selling for 2 dollars and 60 cents which puts it in penny stock region and look at this ever since they listed in tooth and 13 they have lost 86.7% of their value Wow and so this was the first company that came to mind I thought to myself okay if the feds printing money usually that increases asset prices and equities which happen to be exactly what stocks are so and if not many people are talking about the Main Street lending program then maybe there's an opportunity to invest in some companies that potentially qualify because they have less than 10,000 employees in less than 2.5 billion in revenue and potentially invest in those companies buy some stock because they now have a safety net not saying they need to necessarily take on more debt or want to but at least you have this as a safety net well unfortunately for AMC in 2019 they brought in 5.4 billion in revenue which disqualifies them from this program that does not mean the Fed is not going to swoop in and rescue them anyway but this program not looking good for AMC so here's the list of stocks that do look interesting number one my second childhood home Dave & Buster's Dave & Buster's stock was originally listed in 2014 for $17.48 it's been up and down on a rollercoaster going as high as almost $70 per share it's had its share of ups and downs but it's usually been around $40 a per share at least in the last year year and a half and even before that it really has an average below $40 since around 2016 but recently it has plummeted in value almost 70 percent down to 14 point 68 dollars we can actually see here the Motley Fool has an article that says Dave & Buster's has slashed cash outflow so their expenses to 7 million dollars each week so that's their burn they say they have a hundred million in cash right now but here's the problem Dave & Buster's is a place you go to and you touch everything a hundred million divided by seven million a week and burn leaves Dave & Buster's only 14 week of cash which is just over three months in other words dave and buster's potentially has a safety net with this Main Street lending program because they only got three months of cash and then they're essentially out so that actually makes dave and buster's stock a potential opportunity we'll see how it performs on Monday if there is an actual buying opportunity or if everybody watches this video and it skyrockets now dave and buster's does also offer a dividend but if you were to accept one of these loans the Federal Reserve does attach some strings they say borrowers must follow compensation stock repurchase and dividend restrictions that apply to direct loan programs made under this act which FYI a business could like Dave and Buster's could take out the paycheck protection plan and a Main Street loan if they wanted to the Main Street loan seems to be a little bit larger a little bit more of an opportunity longer term play so you could use the Paycheck protection program as a business like Dave & Buster's to keep your employees employed which is good because then you have staff once this is all over the last thing you want is to have to furlough your staff your staff goes and finds a different job then it's hey let's reopen oh crap I don't have any employees left because they all went somewhere else to do work at home gigs or start three D matter port scanning businesses like the video I made the other day now I'm always the fan of doing a quick little fact check so you could type something in quickly like how many employees does Dave & Buster's have oh ho there we go 2,200 so they qualify there and then of course we could do how much revenue did Dave and Buster's have in 2019 and we had 1.3 billion in revenue around in 2019 which is great that means they qualify for Main Street loans so we need safety net more helicopter money but hey you know what look whether you like helicopter money or you're one of the people on Instagram going man this helicopter money is a ripoff it's bailing out companies like I'm not trying to debate with you whether it's right or wrong I'm just thinking about where to put my money talk about some other stocks by the way if you want to completely free stocks make sure you use that link to weeble so you can get your two free stocks just remember to deposit at least $100 and you get those two free stocks here's a stock that has risen to massive popularity over the last year it is a company taking advantage of the solar industry and I actually have their products on my roof and it is and phase energy and phase energy creates a solar products their stock has done very well over the last year which to me doesn't make them as exciting to potentially invest in because I'm not seeing those fat declines I mean from their peak here to where they are now they've lost about 30 percent in value so maybe there's still an opportunity here but we have to ask ourselves you know is it better to dive into something like dave & buster's that has lost significantly more than n phase and phase by the way creates these awesome little micro inverters for solar panels I have those on my roof they are a wonderful product I have the N face app on my phone I do love the company I will say though that Tesla solar does not use n face and n face also creates a direct competitor to Tesla's solar wall so if we see more of a prominence and Tesla soul or we might see a little bit of a decline or some more head winds for n face to be able to grow it does qualify with having less than 10,000 employees and its revenue is also significantly under 2.5 billion dollars so we have a safety net for n phase if you're interested in and phase now in the event that you're vying for a theater chain you can forget about the first second and third place which is AMC e regal and Cinemark all three of these have substantially more than 10,000 employees and substantially more than 2.5 billion in revenue well I guess with the exception of Cinemark which comes in at 3.3 billion in revenue but unfortunately that means they don't qualify for Main Street lending but if we go to position number four we will find the Marcus Corp here's an example of a Marcus Corp theater just a heads up if you're interested Marcus a theaters you have to buy the stock Marcus Corp which means you're also getting their hotel holdings however they appear but I mean all of this I believe I believe all of these companies would qualify for Main Street lending again not saying they'll definitely going to take it but this is a nice safety net to protect from bankruptcy and here we go Marcus Corp currently trading at thirteen dollars and seven cents substantially lower than even their 2016 stock price around twenty five twenty to twenty five dollars however you know we've seen some lows here coming out of the recession we've seen some of these prices before eleven twelve thirteen eight so only recently did we really see a run-up in the Marcus Corp stock they also have a dividend which might get slashed if they needed to take this Main Street lending program but hey you know what if AMC goes bankrupt and they go into restructuring realize - that's gonna look good for regal Cinemark and the Marcus group asks people have less choices to go to theaters assuming that while this restructuring happens the AMC Theaters are like pop pop pop all we just lost most of our employees now we're restructuring the corporation when can we open our doors way later than everybody else now in case you're interested in speculating in real estate KB Homes might be an option for you however I will say rather than speculate in new construction homes which I don't recommend anybody buy right now I would much rather see you join me in my zero to millionaire real estate investing program where you could actually learn how to go from a net worth of zero to a real estate millionaire because that's what I did you'll also get to join me in my private daily live streams every single day that the market is open or I talk about stocks where I talk about things like this where I talk about real estate and where I help you analyze your deals look forward to seeing you there use that coupon code down below now if I convinced you to stay away from KB homes and join my courses instead here is the Tupperware brand for you if you wanted to get yourself involved with an MLM you could look at the Tupperware their stock has absolutely been look at this in 2009 at the depths of the recession top we're brand was selling for $13 a share back in 2003 they were selling for $16 a share right now they are selling for $2 a share which is down from their 2008 peak by over 96% absolutely insane temper wares revenues in 2019 were 1.7 billion dollars which means that they would qualify for hey Main Street bailout and I guess they're not really bailouts they're just loans that the companies have to repay but there's a cash crunch right now because of this disaster going on companies need access to cash to stay afloat it's just like the CEO of AMC who went on multiple news stations on March 23rd I believe it was mentioning hey we need cash there's no question of our ability to repay but without cash we will be forced into bankruptcy essentially he didn't use the be K word that long ago but he basically implied that so this was actually one that really surprised me I thought for sure they might not qualify but I guess it makes sense the denny's corporation is selling for 9.99 4 cents per stock they are down from their peak in 2019 over 56% however what I don't love is that they've been at this pricing as recently as 2014 and 15 you know they've had some growth recently but I mean look at this history here they were selling for under $1 at some point when they first IP owed they were selling for nine dollars and just promptly plummeted not one that I'm super confident in but here's another one that I am confident in red fin red fin stock it appears would also qualify in the event that they needed more cash on hand red fin stock IP owed for 21 dollars and they have had a little bit of a volatile ride at 18 dot 52 cents I'm not super bullish I have made a video a few weeks back buying them for $10 a share which I'm very grateful for here's Yelp who just laid off and furloughed over 2,000 people yelp has had one heck of a ride they have had such a hard time getting a start out here in the market and they were really specked out shortly after they first IP owed but they have been on a roller coaster ever since it is interesting though Yelp would qualify in the event that they needed cash their revenue and employee count both line up although remember this new Main Street lending program only requires that you have either of these criteria match so either you have less than 10,000 employees or you have less than 2.5 billion in revenue now the last one of the bunch here has also been severely hammered in their stock price and they need a lifeline much like in the event that you need a lifeline or a free quote for life insurance I think is what I was supposed to say you could do so using the link down below you get a quote within five minutes super easy to use app I personally have this insurance lauren has this insurance I check that link out down below but here it is Spirit Airlines Spirit Airlines yes I might be able to access some of that sweet sweet bailout money from that twenty five billion dollars in the cares Act that was approved for Airlines but you better believe Delta American United and some of these bigger airlines are going to be fighting for every dollar of that over and above Spirit Airlines so this is actually like a safety net to the safety net for a Spirit Airlines Spirit Airlines is a discount carrier though so they might get smacked by lower prices coming from United Delta and American as well so they're gonna have quite the price war once we all start flying again but we look in here it looks like at fourteen dollars we are selling for around two thousand eleven pricing we have not seen this kind of pricing since the beginning and end of 2011 which means all of these gains have just been eradicated selling for fourteen dollars well I guess now fifteen dollars in after-hours look at that that's almost a 20 percent gain on Friday and after hours alone but still at fifteen dollars and 20 cents and with a second parachute or safety net so to speak the stock looks dramatically discounted from what it was trading for just two months ago Wow look at that down 67 almost 68 percent just to note by the way Southwest Airlines has 60,000 employees Allegiant has 4,000 JetBlue 22,000 and spirit has 7700 which I believe their revenue is over the 2.5 bill but they qualify on employee count for this safety net now obviously if you choose to invest in any of these companies and they go bankrupt it's a not my fault I am wearing my beserker helm I am protected don't sue me bro so 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