저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프의 재무장관 후보(스콧 베센트 지목) 지명을 호재로 보고, 장단기 금리 역전 및 주가 과열 경고. 러셀2000 사상 최고치 속 단기 투기 우려, 소형주보다 펀더멘털 강한 금리민감주·TLT를 헤지/반등 수단으로 제시. 홈에퀴티 credit line 활용도 권유.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here this is great news Donald Trump's latest pick for treasury secretary is an absolute Game Changer and in this video I'm going to talk about what you should be considering when it comes to investing but also your personal finances let me actually start with that and then I'll talk about why which is the more boring part the person and the background and all of that first thing you got to do the bottom line okay and and look I've got a ton of FAL licenses real real estate broker license uh Financial advisory license all these if there's one thing I can tell you to put all this together as not personalized advice hashsum bro get a home equity line of credit ASAP so for the 70% of you that own a home please consider the following when markets are high which in many markets they are it's easier to refinance or or or get a home equity line of credit rather uh at a higher level to get a higher valuation for your property even if valuations do not decline if we go into a harder economic time with tighter lending conditions or recession it's going to be nearly impossible for you to get that Equity out of your property now I know what you're saying Kevin this is stupid why do I want a home equity line of credit at 8% well this is the beautiful thing that maybe you just don't know about and that is totally understandable nobody teaches this but this is why I'm making this video along with all other things we're going to talk about the stock market and who this guy is that Donald Trump just picked home home equity lines of credit are variable they're not going to replace your first mortgage they're second mortgage they're variable interest rate which means yeah even if you sign up for home equity line of credit right now at 9% don't use it to pay off your credit cards or your car or other stuff just leave it there leave it and then in a year or two if let's say we're in a recession or we're trending towards one and rates all of a sudden have fallen and your variable interest on this credit line has fallen substantially as well you could pull it out at that point see you only pay interest when you actually draw on it it's kind of like having a credit card attached to your home it's crazy it's a really really good deal educate yourself on that maybe if you're interested I can make a more detailed video on this but I think it is a really good hack yes they can freeze credit lines so usually what we do is right when things are starting to poop the fan you take the money out and you put it into like a savings account so that way it's drawn but that's things aren't hitting the fan right now it's more like the opposite you know things are doing really well right now which is the perfect time to establish that kind of debt now the next thing that's happening is you've got the Russell 2000 at alltime highs which is great but this also comes with a little bit of a warning see a lot of enthusiasm is getting priced into markets right now because of Donald Trump's appointments especially his appointment of Treasury secretary today which is actually rein verted the yield curve yeah how freaking crazy is this the 10year treasury right now sits at 4.3% the 2 years sits at 4.31 this is the bond market screaming that we are literally in 2006 and 2007 where we're vacillating between inversion and uninversity poopy just not now in the future remember it's usually not until you're between 50 to 90 basis points uninverted that markets really actually hit the tank like or you know blow up basically things really go bad so for now the party can keep going one of the reasons the party keeps going is because uh Steve basson the the treasury secretary appointing he's seen as anti- tariff it's cuz he's a hedge fund guy okay he's kind of like a short seller you know he'll short interest rates he'll make macro moves he used to actually work for George Soros then spun-off and did his own hedge fund which was really kind of incredible is he's a macr Trader and yeah he shorts but he knows economics he understands macroeconomics he knows what happens with a strong dollar a weak dollar what happens with tariffs how bad tariffs are and so people think he wants to f fast walk taxes uh tax cuts that is and slow walk tariffs it's literally the best case scenario yes Trump these tax cuts are great in fact let's make the 2017 tax cuts permanent let's have more percent tax cuts let's come up with a three arrows policy and that's going to be 3% GDP by 2028 3% regulation reduction every single year and three count of three more million barrels of oils we going to drill baby drill every single day so people are looking at this and it's like if you look at the numbers it's like yields down because inflationary fears are down gold down oil down all of those are telling you inflationary fears down which is great you know this is like you know if if you're Steve you should be happy right now because the market is basically cheering you the Market's really happy about you and it's it's it's like it's really flattering for Steve uh but so from a personal point of view look this is great lower taxes slower walking tariffs but I want to be pretty clear about this I personally think a lot of the Tariff talk was overblown anyway and so so this just sort of reiterates that and kind of more confirms this and I personally think that unfortunately markets can get very very exuberant in good times and they kind of assume that the Trump Administration is going to get everything done perfectly and and while I I hope they can get their initiatives through I I I hope that just you know because they' they've got great plans uh for for especially business right usually things just move slower than you expect so markets just aren't pricing in a hedge for that and this is why I think the best hedge is actually what's blowing off its bottom support line right now of $90 the best hedge right now I'm sorry to shill it again but it's TLT I mean consider that TLT right now it's bouncing off of that 90 level it's at 92 right now it's your longer uh bond duration fund you can get options on it use it as a hedge be careful you know if there's a second wave of inflation it could tank or if there are even fears of a second wave of inflation which I think are unrealistic anyway uh but the more yields fall the more that goes up and actually gives you money to potentially buy the dip if there's a market correction as markets realize oh darn all of our hopes aren't coming true as fast as we thought with you know business skyrocketing in 2025 oh no maybe there's a little bit of a Slowdown and more layoffs in 2025 oh no this is recessionary right TLT should do exceptionally well in this case I have a price target of $130 for it maybe I'm biased I'm not sure what came first my interest in it or my bias I'm not sure uh but other than that another one that's like fundamentally undervalued still is end phase okay I've been talking about this since it's HED $60 floor it's now at $72 in just the last week it's up 9% today this has the potential to keep going I've been talking about super micro going from $22 uh up to where it is now it's at $37 it's up 11% on the day it's probably going to keep going these have fundamental support rather than only momentum support this is something to pay attention to today and I mention it in my Alpha report you know how to get that already meet kevin.com Alpha but we talk about how you know when you have fundamental support on something the stock could fall you know super micro fell 7% one day last week on Nvidia earnings day and recovered all of that and way more because it's it's not just a momentum play it's really a fundamental play that has momentum keep that in mind the momentum could obviously slow but watch that at the same time you've got Nvidia topping out and you're going to find this with some of the mag sevens is people are rotating out of the mag 7 they're rotating out of the highest cash flow stocks like the Facebooks uh and and the invas and they're rotating away from these which are actually generating massive cash flows they're really good companies really good companies and I'm not in them I'm just saying they're very very good companies but people are rotating out of them and they're rotating into the higher risk smaller cap companies like pelaton you know pelaton stock has doubled over the last month but its revenues are flat it's losing money and its margins are stable which means it doesn't have much hope of getting out of losing money anytime soon so you have this sort of like dare I say looniness that oh every small company is going to do great in 2025 I actually think the opposite is true I actually think you're going to see more bankruptcies than ever before in 25 and the smallest companies were actually your highest risk companies and this is true under a Steve Bassin uh you know treasury Administration as well mostly because you have to also remember the treasury secretary uh operates under the direction of the president yes but also via interpreting Congressional law so when for example the inflation reduction Act is passed under Biden who interprets the rules of the inflation reduction act to actually create the tax benefits and and and you know what vehicles qualify the treasury Department great so in other words you have to pass Bills first which probably won't happen until May or June then you have to interpret them at the treasury which probably won't happen until the end of 25 or 26 which is probably also when you get your tax cut so in other words you going have to have some patience for this treasury secretary but in the meantime it does seem to be reiterating a floor on yields or sorry a floor on bond prices which is dropping yields and if yields continue to drop as we unwind some of these tariff fears which is great I'm all for it I'm really bullish for it then in my opinion you want to be bullish some of these interest rate sensitive sectors that have really sold off a lot lately rocket mortgage United Wholesale Mortgage Company Lan Depot red fin uh TLT Nas super interest rate sensitive but also tariff sensitive and also energy tax credit sensitive right all sort of trump issues these stocks in my opinion have strong fundamentals that actually get better if yields fall more and uh markets slow down and people get into a little bit more of a oh okay I need I need to find you know we need to go back to a valuation correction state where the euphoric valuations come down yeah it's possible that some of the mortgage companies or other these other Investments could also go down if there's a market correction as well but in my opinion they go down less because they have a fundamental support especially in an environment where yields are falling and you're being supported there so that's just another thesis but um look just to wrap that up he worked for George Soros he has goals to deliver on the various tax cuts from Trump he actually you know Elon Musk was pushing for lck and he did not get chosen lutnick uh didn't get chosen instead uh this guy got chosen and uh this guy compared to some of the other people other people were like I don't know maybe we could do a phased in approach for no tax on social security where you know if you're just retiring you pay the regular tax but if you're older you pay less tax or whatever this guy he's like nah man all in eliminate taxes on tips Social Security benefits and overtime pay he's all in on all of that and he sees a grand economic reordering coming like very Pro business friendly Pro business uh this is a makes sense he's a hedge fund guy he's a markets guy but you also have to be careful because markets guys they are really bad at at like insulating themselves for a recession and so you tend to like you get bigger Highs but then you get bigger booms and bus Cycles right so that's kind of the tradeoff that you get with a more Market driven person uh so um you a couple things to note also uh is next Tuesday we expect to send out uh which of you who have applied for roboh hack.
a uh will be accepted in we've only got 99 slots so that's at roboh hack. uh we are having still an issue with our docu sign signup link so just email us at invest roboh hack. if you're interested in that and you can learn more over at roboh hack. a uh anyway thank you so much for being here I love you all uh and now it's time to hit the slubs we'll see you soon goodbye and good luck let's go skiing
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