저자: Kevin · 외국인
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8/12 주차 지정학 리스크(이란-이스라엘 공격 가능성, 미 항모·잠수함 이동)와 경제 캘린더(PPI/CPI/소매판매)를 점검. 인플레이션 둔화 기대 속 Fed 25bp 인하 가능성 언급. 주식은 헤지된 net long 포지션 유지, 현금 일부 확대. 비트코인 지지선 이탈을 약세 선행지표로 봄.
다듬은 글
this week is expected to be absolutely crazy with the potential for war in Israel expanding with a massive attack coming from Iran with Now new information suggesting the attack could be occurring between August 12th which is tomorrow Monday you might even be watching this on August 12th uh and August 16th and Iran's already starting to Signal movement suggesting exactly this might happen plus a lot of actual economic catalysts we want to really be prepared for so let's go through all of this in this video the first thing I'd like to bring your attention to is the following from the Department of Defense they indicate that there's a call out of a phone call which sort of implies a transcript but it's really just sort of like a little memo uh between the secretary of defense of the United States and the Minister of Defense of Israel and axios is reporting that after this phone call Israel is alleging a larger scale attack is being prepared right now in Iran in other words maybe Israel's satellite monitoring or drone monitoring or their spies or whatever are noticing more uh Munitions being delivered to defensive missile Bays or to offensive missile Bays or maybe uh attack drones are being moved from side of hangers to outside and these are the sort of preparations that are usually observable from the sky and generally attacks happen in uh you know from Iran at night so do remember that you know right now it's I'm filming this at 8:00 p.m.
in California time 11:00 p.m. eastern time Israel is at 6: a.m. right now so you've got about a 7-hour spread there from Eastern time going forward and a 10-hour spread from California time going forward so keep that in mind for when you're thinking about Israel usually the attacks occur at night which would be sort of like a late afternoon for us over here early evening for uh State side but anyway if you go to this call out right here this is really interesting secretary Austin reiterates the United States's commitment and in light of escalating Regional tensions has now ordered the US Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group basically um aircraft carrier strike group and they travel with destroyers and and obviously other cruise missile uh ships but anyway uh this strike group they're asking it to accelerate its transit to the centcom area this is to go to provide assistance to a uh an aircraft carrier and strike group that's already there the Theodore Roosevelt the Theodore Roosevelt is expected to be done with its Tour of Duty soon it's possible that tour might get extended if there is a larger conflict and it looks like they're trying to double up over there which is kind of interesting uh it does seem like they're getting a little nervous about what Israel is seeing and I'm sure we're observing what Iran is doing as well to be prepared but it does sound like something's coming especially since the secretaries now uh sent the USS Georgia over there as well this is a guided missile submarine and that's heading over to the centcom area so it does definitely seem like things are getting a little bit more intense unfortunately and that the strike May indeed be imminent again we're expecting it now between and we've heard stuff like this before so we just knock on wood and hope that Iran you know gets talked off a cliff basically sometimes I feel like they talk up okay we're going to do it between the 12th and 16th and it's really just an attempt to try to negotiate but what I thought was really interesting is Hamas was being sort of asked to negotiate with Israel a new ceasefire deal uh at a meeting on August 15th and now they've refused to enter those negotiations which isn't good uh on top of that it's worth noting that Ohio class submarine is armed with 150 Tomahawk land Tac cruise missiles uh and that has been uh immediately repositioned from its location in the Mediterranean that's the USS Georgia this what's C crazy about that is these Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles the they're not defensive weapons they're we're going to blow the crap out of you Iran and the reason people are nervous about that which obviously geopolitical nervousness can often lead to short-term sell-offs and markets they're often actually by the dip opportunities unless of course you're walking into a recession you know like if you bought the dip after Russia invaded Ukraine you know we still sold off for another four months because markets didn't really botom until the summer to fall of 2022 you if you bought after the 20 2001 uh you know 911 attacks you were basically buying into the dotcom bubble so usually geopolitical doesn't really move the market in a way that uh is lasting It's usually the underlying currents that hold lasting you know either pain or or Euphoria for markets but uh you know some people are going to expect a lot of volatility in the event that uh you know there is a strike from Iran not mostly because we don't think we're going to be able to ward off the attack from Iran but the question of what happens if Israel gets pummeled for so long it's the time that's going to matter here right the strike could start within the next four four days uh but what if it lasts 3 months and then all of a sudden Iron Dome Munitions run out and people start running out of food in Israel or uh Israel decides that they've gotten pushed so much to the edge and the United States isn't helping Israel enough that they end up launching a nuclear like a strategic nuclear weapon against Iran Israel has nukes they're expected to have at least 200 nuclear weapons uh so uh you know this this is this is tricky I think this is exactly why the United States is moving a submarine with 150 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles to the region because they're like all right if Israel is going to you know to yoink out the nuke uh let's at least use our tomahawks first but then the problem is if if Iran is getting pummeled to crap so badly what happens if Russia steps in you know we've already seen this uh these these talks about potential Russian Uh Russian air defense uh Munitions getting sent to Iran see here's one from literally the Moscow times now keep this in mind this is also coming from the New York Times so this has been reported in Us Media everybody's basically saying the same thing so but anyway the idea is that Russia has started sending Advanced Air Defense systems and radar uh systems to Iran as Iran threatens to retaliate for the Israeli assassination of hamas's uh you know political leader the New York Times reported on Monday uh and so this isn't good because it shows you that this is more than just Iran this is potentially Iran and Russia and then potentially North Korea maybe even China could get involved so not great this this is where a lot of people are really worried about the potential for World War III I mean Donald Trump reminds us of this on almost a daily basis and his campaign speeches so this attack is expected to be larger uh and potentially lasting many many days to even potentially weeks and it does look like the you know while there was an initial thought all right the threat imminent okay Iran isn't doing anything maybe cooler heads are prevailing they're backing down now all of a sudden it looks like oh gosh here it goes they're moving stuff into position it looks like it's actually coming this week I don't know I mean I was on edge all last week and nothing happened knock on wood I don't I we don't want anything to happen but it is going to be a risk factor this week and that comes on top of all the other catalysts that we've got going on so well let's go through a little bit of the calendar here and then we got to talk inflation a little bit so Catalyst we watching uh oh yeah okay well Monday we got monday.com that reports earnings that's pretty much it PPI producer price inflation on Tuesday is expected to come in at 2% across the board you get about 33 estimates here both median and averages come out to.
2% standard deviation of just 8% so you're not really expecting a hot report here really any kind of big big movement uh same thing for CPI we got 0 2% expected across the board 48 estimates average estimate is .19 standard deviation of only 0.4 so this really suggests that markets are expecting inflation to come in either at expectations or low personally I think there's a good chance CPI PPI coming low I don't actually really think inflation is that huge of an issue right now anymore obviously prices are still high I'm just saying new inflation uh and the closer you get to 1.6 to 1.7 the better because if you multiply that by 12 you get to 2% and that's what you want that annual number and you especially want that because Bowman was yapping this weekend uh she says that inflation remains comfortably above our 2% Target that she will remain cautious and that much of the unemployment we've been seeing has been due to weaker hiring not necessarily because of high layoffs this is true usually layoffs come like halfway through a recession so it's kind of a lagging indicator anyway but the question here that I have is if she so concerned about inflation still she somewhat suggests a bias of the fed towards a 25 BP cut rather than a 50 so a lot of people are thinking the fed's going to give us a 50 incept I don't think so in fact she even went as far as saying that uh oh yeah here was she's not confident that inflation will decline in the same way as it did in the second half of last year so the second half of last year which is what we're in now you know the July to December period inflation really plummeted she doesn't know or doesn't have the confidence that that's going to happen happen so you definitely have some dissent over at the FED in terms of how quickly you're going to move on cutting rates I know that a lot of people are like oh when the FED starts cutting rates the market crashes part part of the reason you get stuff like that is because people post charts like this I mean I've been addressing this chart for years and uh it's really misleading because what they're doing is they're purposefully just looking at recessionary Cuts but there are two types of cuts there are recessionary cuts when yes the market collapses because of recession uh and then there are not recessionary Cuts Like what we had over here in the mid 90s your sort of mid90s soft Landing I mean you had you had Cuts over here and five years basically of no recession after Cuts began and they happen to just leave that totally blank that soft Landing because it ruins their narrative and the stock markets skyrocketed during those 5 years so uh you know whatever you know people want to spread their their fearmongering I guess I you know I I'm just a believer that it makes a lot of sense I hear people on both sides here some people are like look just buy the dip go all in other people kind of like the positioning that we've taken is uh it's not a suggestion or recommendation it's just telling you what we've done so it's it's just very clear and and unbiased here uh net long in the market but definitely hedged with options for especially like this week uh but probably will stay that way going into the election uh and you know kind of kind of reducing exposure as well or or have reduced explo exposure I I don't think uh there're any plans to reduce exposure anymore at this point kind of see as the data comes in but uh certainly have increased cash and sort of trimmed uh at some of the higher valuations but again that's all historical stuff so we'll see how this data plays out uh so another thing that you're seeing people talk about is this you know question of hey where did this bad jobs report where did these bad job numbers come from for the uh July report and Nick T was talking about this a little bit he uh quoted Goldman Sachs and who suggested that 70% of the rise in July unemployment came from temporary layoffs with no big jump in Texas which you may have expected from Hurricane Barrel the biggest layoffs were actually in Leisure and Hospitality Education and healthc Care and what I align this sort of with what we're seeing in the rest of the market and also what Goldman Sachs elsewhere noted they noted that travel has clearly been deteriorating in the second half so far you know July basically is the first part of the second half Airbnb Expedia Disney moderation and the question now that they're asking is is this the normalization or are we going to go uh below Trend here are we going to really slow down the one place obviously we're still seeing spending like crazy is artificial intelligence we'll see Goldman Sachs personally says they well gold man Sachs I I shouldn't say personally I mean they're sort of an institution but anyway Goldman Sachs suggests that def the defensive sector like defensive stocks May outperform uh as they usually do when the Federal Reserve Cuts I kind of put a little asterisk on this and suggested that the problem with defensives is they they usually rely on pricing power which a lot of companies don't have right now people like oh you know defensives could be like a Costco for example or an aneis or bush or you know whatever at least those are consumer defensives and uh people think uh oh well you know people got to buy there anyway right but a lot of those companies have lost so much pricing power that I I just don't know if they're going to see that Revenue growth markets are expecting unless people are just going to buy the stock regardless of growth I I I don't know I don't know that there's really if we do go into recession I don't really think there is a safe place in the stock market at all I I think whatever whatever exposure you know goes down because historically that's just what happens uh gold goes up and all stocks go down now some stocks go down a lot more right high growth companies tend to go down substantially more rapidly you can see 50 to 90% declines and uh the defensives like a McDonald's for example might only go down 15% but who knows you know past performance doesn't guarantee what the future is going to hold may maybe defensives will do well this time I don't know uh then um that's when so Wednesday we get that CPI the bigger one to me is actually going to be retail sales I think that one's going to come in really low and it's going to make people fearful of uh well frankly a recession so retail sales are are already expected to grow slowly at just 0 2% average estimate is actually even lower than that at just 1.2% that comes out Thursday the day before the 16th I wouldn't be surprised for you to just have an ugly Thursday where like you know if Iran decides to strike and you get bad retail sales the markets uh aren going to aren going to be very very happy uh anyway so um on Friday you get ghoul spe to speak uh so we'll see what happens with ghoul spe he's an interesting one uh he did oh my gosh I'm getting so many messages I'm trying to mute this stuff too uh but anyway gouby was interesting because he uh he actually ended up chatting on I think it was Friday or Thursday and he wasn't as optimistic as I thought you like I remember when he first kind of came on the scene you know people joke they're like oh it's fools again I feel bad for his last name but uh the last time he spoke oh it was it was uh on the 5th uh he says that uh we will maintain Financial stability forecasts are volatile and we will not respond to the uh stock market financial markets are more volatile than the FED uh we have to pay attention to weakness in jobs but we're not seeing that yet and then he said he was asked could the stock stock market selling off cause a recession uh and he says it could but it didn't happen in 2015 so he sort of balances it kind of interesting and uh and then he just reiterates that uh uh employment and price stability are the only thing that matter right now not the stock market so we'll get him again on Friday we also get University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations those are generally pretty benign and boring so I'm not so worried about that I think really the biggest wild card this week for me retail sales and what happens with Iran now I'm also watching Bitcoin as sort of a leading indicator I regularly do this uh we we've lost the 617 line and we're kind of this is on the 30-minute chart and we're running back over here to 57580 so we'll see which way this goes to me I like to use this as sort of a leading indicator of okay you know which which way might stocks go it doesn't always work uh so you know back test it yourself fact check it yourself use it however you want uh but usually I see Bitcoin as a bit of a sort of a bearish leading indicator when it's falling and I don't know why but uh it it lost its support uh actually today uh of that 6,700 level that sort of been bleeding a bit today just got back from uh San Diego with Lauren which was really fun if you want to see uh some stories of the kids by the way make sure to follow me on Instagram at real meia Kevin and actually I'm just @ meetkevin on Instagram and you can follow me on X or Twitter @ real meetkevin on that one all right folks thanks so much for watching good luck this week
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