저자: Kevin · 외국인
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은행권(골드만, JP모건, MUFG)이 경기침체 확률을 상향하고 있으며 소비자 신용·고용 지표가 약화되고 있다. 연준은 인플레 우려로 금리인하가 지연돼 긴축이 지속되는 셈이라 주식 위험보상이 매우 낮다고 본다. 현금 비중 확대를 권하며, AI 열풍(슈퍼마이크로 급락)은 붕괴 국면이라고 주장한다. 자신의 테슬라 풋 베팅과 플래시 세일 홍보가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
oh man it's getting worse banks are now worried about a collapse recession odds are going up Japan failed us today mind you Jim Kramer tank Tesla Taylor Swift almost got Isis and a recession is getting closer by the day I'm going to catch you up with everything that's going on here the first thing that we should really touch on though because well it's a classic it just doesn't miss it's Jimbo Jim Kramer the clip I'm about to show you took place in our free every morning Market open live stream took place at about 641 a.m.
and from the exact moment of this clip Tesla stock fell about 4.3% you could follow me at real me Kevin to see me tweet this stuff during the day but I want you to see it here ready for it here we go rather I'd rather buy Tesla thinking that thinking that demand isn't that oh no I know uh it was then that we knew Tesla was screwed for the day in fact if you look at the individual chart for Tesla I don't know how he does it but he literally matched the peak when he said I'd rather buy Tesla it was the highest candle this is a 5minute candle here of the day so naturally when that happened I couldn't help myself I bought a put I bought a $100 put for 65 and it was up almost 50% by the end of the trading day be up even actually it's up even more now because Tesla's down 1.34% and after hours so dang it Jim JY strikes again anyway of course I sent that alert to everybody in my stocks group if you want in on the alerts that I sent in my stocks Group which really it's the purpose of them is for you to get perspective on where I'm seeing Trends or trades we still have that flash sale going on through the day today that flash sale Ends Tonight you get access to all the course member live streams the archive of course member live streams the trade alerts can't guarantee you'll make money but we'll always do our best this was my p&l today uh I kept my Tesla contract so I haven't closed it out yet so that after hours is still printing on it uh anyway if you want to see those learn more at meetkevin.com again can't make any guarantees it's just for educational purposes so that's Jim CR and Tesla but what the heck happened with Japan yesterday Japan had their Central Bank bailout markets and we're not even close to the banking part yet this is a whole crisis we're going to talk banks in just a moment but yesterday the Central Bank of Japan bailed out markets I made a video yesterday and I said this is bad this is not good in fact this is a sign that the stock market and I even tweeted it here and made a video on it I said the stock market is so IL liquid the boj had to capitulate within 48 Hours not good now of course Market started Rising after this uh in after hours even in America you know futures or whatever and I'm like this is this is bad it's not going to play out good tomorrow and sure enough even though we had indices open up nicely and positively this morning by over a%c take a look on screen here the qes were at 4.49 we closed yesterday way lower than that it was like 439 that we closed yesterday so we ran up a good 2% and this just tanked throughout the entire day and guess what the qes ended up down 1.08% and they're down another per in the after hours and that's why I tweeted the following here wait so you mean the bank of Japan isn't bailing out US Stocks oh no if only someone had warned us anyway that's why you subscribe here we talked about exactly this happening yesterday but what about the banks well the banks are freaking out and I mean the big ones Goldman Sachs just lifted their recession risk to 25% which is kind of low for the year though could go into recession in 25 what did JP Morgan do today for this year in 2024 the calendar year only what five months left here JP Morgan just increased their risk of recession from 25% to 35% Jamie Diamond does say I don't think we're in a recession yet today but things are obviously slowing down there's no question of that he also doesn't see us actually getting back to 2% inflation anytime soon which is actually really bad he says there are multiple inflationary forces still ahead of us this is bad because it means higher for longer a slower fed and the slower the FED is the more they're actually tightening see as inflation slowly Falls and the FED stays here you're getting tighter because those interest rates have more of a bite as inflation Falls it's not quite a 2% even if you get a a 25 or 50 basis point cut or even 75 bips of cuts this year if inflation is significantly lower than that you're actually net net tightening more than you're loosing policy told you the banks are freaking out take a look at this mufg it's both an investment bank and A lender uh so I know an investment Bank technically isn't a bank but they also have banking services okay whatever who cares mufg this is a big one okay what do they say as the dust settles we remain Vigilant and unconvinced that the coast is clear we've said no to the no Landing narrative we didn't go soft on soft landing and our thesis remains that a bumpy Landing can turn into a hard Landing If the Fed drags out the easing cycle that's basically what I just described about how we're actually tightening as time goes on they say this time is not different the longer they wait the more they will need to cut If the Fed delivers major Cuts it's possible they could foam the runway lessen the impact of consumer spending small business financing uh falling and avoid causing damage to jobs and they go over here and mention that they actually see a 5050 risk on recession versus expansion although hard Landing views have largely receded the curve reminds us that perhaps the risk still lingers they actually suggest uh that a recession is much more likely in the new year so basically like q1 Q2 which sort of aligns with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs saying no recession right now and even though the odds are going up this year you know you start asking about next year the numbers start going up a little bit it's not it's no bueno it's no bueno at all okay uh on top of that they also see the rate cuts that we've already been expecting like the September 50 basis point cut that's mostly priced in it's priced in with like a 70% chance 100% chance of a 25b BPS uh but anyway there they argue you know it's actually a problem because the stock market is falling and we've already priced in these Cuts so when the cuts come it's like yeah we were already expecting that like what are you going a rally off of that they're not very happy here at all and I mean frankly to some extent you shouldn't be happy either there are some serious concerns consider some of these other elements of concerns uh right here I'll throw this on screen this is discover and Capital One showing their net charge off ratio something to know about these companies is is they uh cater to a lower income consumer uh and they're struggling they're they're struggling more than Taylor Swift now you might think oh Taylor Swift isn't struggling did you hear that she just had to cancel three shows because she almost got Isis yeah literally apparently two Isis followers we don't know if they actually were Isis terrorists one of them was just 19 years old but anyway two alleged adherence to Isis were planning a potential chemical weapons attack on the Ern haal Stadium during the AOS tour now this was foiled in Austria but like my goodness it's scary goodness gracious anyway it's not just these charge off ratios going up for poor uh individuals but you're starting to price in uh-oh the consumer really is starting starting to hit a wall that's what we're seeing in earnings mind you Q3 earnings aren't great they're not going to be great we get those in October and the guidance we get for Q4 I'm almost certain is going to be recessionary but in the meantime take a look at the Consumer Credit Data that we just got today again it isn't good here it is revolving credit monthly change I want you to see these little red bars right here so if we Zoom or or just look at the right over there see those two little red Nicks okay we've had those two little red Nicks now two times in the last 3 months how many times did we have that before Co well in the six years on this chart before covid we had it 1 2 3 4 five times that's it I mean maybe there's like a tiny little Nick there on the left I can't tell if that's green or red but the point is we had just had two in 3 months and we had five to six in six years so we generally only average a red maybe once a year if that now we've had two Reds on Consumer Credit in literally two months now you might be saying to yourself oh but but Kevin I mean Consumer Credit it's it's still Rose today yes it did in fact the St Louis uh Federal Reserve they talked specifically about this uh you could actually see it I I love following them I don't know how many people actually engage with this crap because it's really boring I mean they got four likes on their I still call it Twitter they X page but anyway uh in June seasonally adjusted revolving consumer credit credit cards decreased 1.7 billion while seasonally adjusted non-revolving Consumer Debt like autos and student loans Rose 10.6 billion in other words because you're still waiting for Biden student loan forgiveness uh you're you're seeing an explosion this was mostly student loan forgiveness mind you seeing an or student loan debt see an explosion in student loan debt you're actually decreasing credit card spending which is bad for GDP it's recessionary now it's good for people individually because hopefully they're trying to balance their finances but the reality is most people aren't using their credit less because they have balanced finances they're using their credit less because they're out they're tapped out they fully maxed out their credit I actually think one of the first companies to go bankrupt in the next recession is going to be a firm I got puts on that sucker just to be transparent I have a full thesis on that that I talked with course members about but I'll just give it to you straight here they hold over5 billion of their crappy debt their buy now pay later debt on their books and then they finance more like getting more cash to do more of these garbage loans against those assets they have like six billion dollars of debt secured against those crappy loans so you you are literally borrowing assuming that asset is good but the asset is like a rotten basket of trash it's the first thing that people are going to stop paying their stupid buy now pay later loan it's not like they're going to repossess your flight that you buy now pay later or your pelaton or your groceries maybe maybe they might ding your credit maybe there have been a lot of issues reporting buy now pay later on credit anyway that's like the first thing people should stop paying and I suspect likely will stop paying it's crazy absolutely crazy so anyway these are really really bad figures from uh Banks uh and what's going on with consumers but then you got to look and see okay well what's going on with pay like pay and employment like are are people at least able to get hopefully pay raises and make more money well not according to the Wall Street Journal pay rates for new hires across Industries are 7% lower than they were for new recruits for the same roles in 2022 the biggest drops have been in White Collar jobs especially in finance new higher pay rates down 99.2% since last year those are quotes from The Wall Street Journal and I think this is going to keep happening most of these companies are just going to keep offering lower pay raises lower initial salaries they're going to advertise fewer jobs they're going to cut hours and eventually they'll just lay off excess staff and I think this is going to get worse before it gets better now a lot of people are like oh but Kevin you know the Federal Reserve doesn't want unemployment bro do you know what the historical unemployment rate is I I really I want you to think about that right now we are at 4.3% what do you think the historic average unemployment rate is in other words how much buffer do we think the Federal Reserve has before you're actually like higher than normal unemployment well the average is roughly 5.5% in fact you could look at this chart right here I'll hide myself for a second so you could see it a little better uh I drew this line right here where I think you sort of have the best fit for it uh but it sits roughly at about 5.5% and you can see see all that spread over there on the right where I'm scribbling right there yeah that's all of the room they have to potentially go up with the unemployment rate and still be at the historic average that's crazy uh understand that if if we go every million we go up that's like 1.5 million people out of jobs at any given time that's not good now I mean there is a little bit of relief like McDonald's which had its first sales declin since 2020 well you know they introduced a $5 value meal so if you want to you know basically die off a food I shouldn't say that uh don't sue me McDonald's okay $5 value meal unless you're in France then you'll only get a Happy Meal for €4 which is about $5 I haven't checked the exchange rate recently so fact check me on that but anyway You' also go to Jack In The Box who's now doing Munchies under $4 Hershey's craft Proctor and Gamble Amazon all of them say sales are weakening AI Euphoria is collapsing I mean did you see what happened to Super Micro trash today oh my gosh complete Insanity and we talked about this yesterday but I want to show you something I mean look look at this absolute trash stock right here okay down 20% on the day yesterday and after hours it was up at like $720 $730 so it literally had like a 40% swing over the last 24 hours which is crazy it's at $480 right now but take a look at this I want you to see this three weeks 3 weeks uh you can see that right here cuz this is a screenshot these are two screenshots here of my February 14th course member live stream archive uh that's what people really like the courses for by the way that's that's what you're paying for the lectures the course member live streams you know we throw in the occasional trade alerts uh when I trade on a daily basis sort of for free but these course member live streams this is really I think where my like real value and perspective comes from the trading is fun too but look at what we said 3 weeks after course members asked me to analyze super micro computer remind you again February 14th okay 3 weeks after super micro Computer stock peaked and then collapsed 56% within 5 months why did I not invest based on what I saw February 14th because I did not I said comps in 2025 will be insane in other words the comparable sales comparing to 2024 and management will blame High comps for faltering growth so basically I drew this out I thought thought that their growth rate was going to collapse and then I wrote does this justify higher prices when the industry gets to that level of normalized growth does enthusiasm Wayne and then I wrote uh tough comps next year will be very real and margins are going to compress which is really interesting because if you look at what they just said I wrote margin compression will come and management literally just complained about margin compression yesterday I wrote this back on February 14th you know I'm not trying to pretend I've got a crystal ball here I'm just saying we do fundamental analysis this is some of the stuff that you get and you get if you join today using the flash sale You' get our archive going all the way back to like I don't know 2017 live streams depending on which of the courses you got but anyway all my analysis is there it's included uh does peak and growth justify valuations no of course not and when growth normalizes will enthusiasm Wayne and valuation collapse well I mean you tell me it's down 56 plus% now it's probably down 60% now the writing was on the wall for very very long time so the AI Euphoria is really rolling over but then you have to understand that the Federal Reserve really has problems here uh you know the Federal Reserve is in this position where if they cut quickly maybe they avoid a recession but then if they reignite inflation they're going to lose all credibility we talked about this yesterday if uh they do cut by the way they're actually going to likely push down the value of the dollar oh my gosh why would you be worried about the value of the dollar going down well if the value of the dollar goes down and the Japanese Yen stays stable then the spread widens oh no the carry trade becomes a problem again oopsies remember yesterday we talked about how Reuters reported that there's still 50% unwinding to do on the carry trade and and then you also have to look at just the massive imbalance that there is in selling pressure I mean on on the stock market right now you know some tweeted uh tweeted I I'm just so used to that somebody tweeted uh here reminder there is a record 6.1 trillion of cash sitting on the sidelines they're buying the dip uh and and I wrote no they're not buying the dip with that pool investable cash is at record low levels we have not seen since 2001.
era most right before the crash right most of this money on the sidelines is probably Cash Cash equivalence at Mega caps Banks and corporations it's not investable oopsies we talked about that because that was re research from uh I think it's BR research is what it's called or is RCA I I can't remember what they're called but anyway um this is a problem you know add to this what we saw uh with uh mufg uh and uh what you're seeing with the fed you really have a problem here because you've got an amplified carry trade that's possible people who can't buy the dip because they're already allocated this is why I've been screaming for weeks increase your cash allocation do what Warren Buffett's doing uh and the long longer the FED weights the more tightening you're getting at the same time as banks are freaking out this is all good this is all like it's all worsening I don't know why I said good it's all worsening all not good is what I meant to say you know but you have to remember there is something worse than a recession a recession is going to destroy stocks like a recession is a stock killer because you know growth collapses at stocks which is what you're paying for at a lot of stocks is growth even value stocks you want them to grow something cuz otherwise they're just burning your Capital if they're not growing so they just grow less but anyway uh there's something worse than a recession for the fed that's inflation it destroys Central bank's country's currencies so the Dual mandate is actually skewed towards recession because we can afford for unemployment to go up another 1.2% and it would still be within historic Norms so it's easy for the FED to justify that we still have pricing pressures Disney just raised prices uh insurances are still Skyhigh ISM service numbers on Monday indicated pricing pressure still Rising Jamie Diamond says we still have pricing pressures ahead of us in terms of rising prices don't get me wrong I personally think the inflation problem is is like gone I I think the FED should cut I think inflation will die uh we're going to get back to the great moderation of disinflation over the last 40 years but the one way you can guarantee that is with a recession so the fed's going to bias towards that so anyway my strategy remains very clear if there's no recession uh by the election then based on whatever data we have then I'll probably Bu The Dip right before the election because that's when you'll be at Peak uncertainty and probably high volatility if there if there is a recession by the election then I'll probably wait until the Federal Reserve capitulates uh and by that I mean like we're going back to uh zero rates we're going back to quantitive easing or quantitative easing uh anyway now the big takeaway here is the consumer is so weak and the FED is still tightening by doing nothing right now that you are literally getting Banks warning of a bumpy path ahead and if not a recession this year than next it's not a great place to be right now so I I'm nervous I still think the uh risk reward for being in stocks is very very low uh anyway if uh if you do want to take advantage of the flash sale it's still going on uh tonight we'll probably uh you know swap that price out uh closer to midnight give you a chance to get in there if you have any questions you can always email us at staff atme kevin.com if you have any issues but otherwise it's all at me kevin.com again none of this personalized Financial advice I just try my best to provide perspective what you do with that information is totally up to you anyw and folks seriously good luck out there
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