저자: 누리엘루비니 · 외국인
요약 보기
루비니 교수는 연착륙보다 경기침체(하드랜딩) 가능성이 더 높다고 보며, 침체는 확실하다고 주장함. 경기 지표 측면에서 경제 둔화, 신용 긴축(지역은행 문제), 제조업·서비스업 선행지수의 수축 전환, 노동시장 연화, 소비 둔화를 근거로 제시함. 1분기 성장률 1.3%는 잠재 성장률 이하이며 2분기도 크게 나아지지 않을 것이라고 봄. 글로벌 측면에서 유로존은 이미 2분기 연속 마이너스 성장으로 침체 상태이고, 중국 성장 둔화는 미국 수출에 부정적이라고 설명함. 침체 시점에 대해서는 Q3 2023 가능성에 대한 확답을 피하며, 신용 경색의 감소 속도, 연준의 정책 등 여러 요인에 따라 달라진다고 봄. 연준은 6월 동결 후에도 7월·9월에 추가 인상이 필요하다고 봄. 근원 PCE 인플레이션이 연말 3%보다 4%에 가까울 것으로 보며, 현재 5.25% 수준 유지로는 부족하다고 주장함. 주택 및 상업용 부동산 일부에 문제가 있으며, 침체가 얕을지 깊을지는 임금·물가 지속성, 원자재 가격, 지정학적 요인(러-우크라이나, 미-중 대립, 중동/이란-이스라엘), 금융여건 추가 긴축에 달려 있다고 봄. 동료 제러미 시겔의 '경미한 침체' 전망에 대해서는 침체는 확실하며 얕을지는 불확실하다는 입장. 기업 측면에서는 과점화에 따른 가격 결정력과 원가 상승을 핑계로 한 이윤폭 확대(이른바 excuse flation)가 인플레 압력을 지속시키는 요인 중 하나라고 봄. 다만 핵심 원인은 아니라고 평가함. 투자 자산별 구체적 가격 목표나 종목 언급은 없음. 금리 관련해서는 연준 추가 인상 가능성을 언급하며 미국 금리 상승 방향성을 시사함.
다듬은 글
Tuesday's inflation print showed a continued deceleration in prices but that core figure remains sticky the question on everyone's mind can the economy stay resilient or are we headed towards an economic crash joining us now is nurio rabini NYU professor emeritus for the stern School of Business so let's get right into this are we headed towards a crash what's your outlook well if we Define it by a crash economic downturn a hard Landing I would say that the probability of a hard Landing meaning at least two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth are higher than the one of a pure soft Landing the economy is slowing down the FED is raised rates and in my view the lab to raise them more because inflation is still too high both wage inflation and core will take a pause of course in June but might need to raise rates more in July and September credit growth is the tightening because of the problems of the regional Banks the forward-looking indicator of economic activity both for manufacturing and services are entering a contractionary direction the labor market is still trading jobs but there are signs of a softening of the labor market and also consumption growth is slowing down growth in the first quarter of the year was below potential at 1.3 in the second quarter it might not be much better and globally the Eurozone is already in a recession two quarters of negative growth in Q4 q1 and now there is a sharp slowdown of growth also in China that doesn't bode well for U.S exports so my bison is still one of a recession as opposed to a soft Landing yes from what we've heard during the earnings season Bank CEOs they're looking for a Q3 2023 recession do you believe that that timing from your estimation from your Calculus is is accurate or are we looking for something a little bit more drawn out or pushed out we we don't know yet I think it's gonna depend on several factors one how much of these credit crunch is gonna reduce credit growth already these years as opposed to pushed into 2024 the FED is gonna pause for the time being that's good for risky assets and Bone yields but they may have to resume Ike's as early as July or September in my view at least a couple of more ones and that's going to lead to further concerns about the economy and then there is the global geopolitical situation that is not great if this war between Russia Ukraine gets worse commodity prices are going to go higher the Cold War within us and China is getting colder and all the economic financial and technological retaliation the whole bunch of risks in the Middle East including the risk that Israel is going to strike Iran so there are lots of things that could lead to a spike in commodity the prices they could also be the factor that pushes us into recession uh excuse so your colleague Jeremy Siegel has talked about kind of his kind of three points recently about three expectations he has so largely in general the expectation is for a pause to Jay he is expecting uh that the FED won't hike throughout this year so there's some Divergence in your viewpoints um he's expecting he is still expecting a recession but predicting it will be a mild one do you share that same prediction well I I do believe that the FED will pause but then we'll have to raise rates more because uh they're going to change our forecast about core PC inflation by year end is going to be closer to four percent than three and therefore staying at 525 is not sufficient the impact of the credit crunch on credit condition is still ongoing and it's gonna become in my viewers there are problems as we know in some parts of Housing and Commercial Real Estate so certainly there is going to be a recession whether that recession is going to be short and shallow as opposed to more severe depends on many factors how much Persistence of wage and price inflation how much are Global factors they're going to be negative what's going to happen to commodity prices to geopolitical factors and further tightening of financial conditions nurio what we've continued to try and gauge is where corporations are playing a role in the current wave of inflation that we're at right now and we've heard a new term for many come about called excuse flation or what some economists would less colloquially perhaps call profit-led inflation to what extent are corporations kind of continuing to to hold up us getting past some of the lingering inflation right now well there is some evidence that because there has been a greater amount of concentration and oligopolies in many parts of the corporate sector that corporates have first of all pricing power secondly there's been a rising cost wage cost and intermediate inputs and commodities but some corporations have taken that one as a excuse for increasing prices even in excess of their cost and therefore that the widening of profit margin paradoxically is a signal that the inflationary pressure remain because if then prices rise more than cost there's more pressure from workers to have a greater wage increases to compensate for the squeezing the real wages so there are many factors of course have led to the rise in inflation one of them is a oligopolis and concentration and a pricing power of the corporate sector it's not the key one but this is a factor
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