저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
AI는 장기적으로 생산성과 성장에 도움이 되지만 효과가 나타나기까지 약 15년의 시차가 있어 2~3년 내 성장 급등은 과장이라는 결론. AI 생산성 효과: 1990년대 인터넷 혁명 후 생산성 성장이 2%에서 3.5%대로 오르기까지 약 15년 소요. 현재 미국 생산성 성장률은 약 1%에 그쳐 아직 집계 수치에 반영되지 않음. 장기적으로는 낙관하지만 단기 파급은 제한적. 거시 역풍 요인: 탈세계화, 이민 제한, 고령화, 지정학적 갈등, 기후변화, 사이버전, 팬데믹 등이 공급 충격으로 작용. 중장기적으로 기술은 디플레이션 요인이지만 본격적 효과 전 약 10년간 스태그플레이션 가능성 언급. AI 규제 필요성: 과점 집중, 허위정보·선거 영향, 블루칼라·화이트칼라 및 창의 계층의 기술적 실업, 자본 소유자에게 유리한 소득·부 불평등 확대 우려. 대응으로 사회안전망 확충, 승자 과세, 재분배 필요. 2024 대선 리스크: 정책 불확실성은 경제에 부정적. 트럼프 집권 시 대러시아 태도(우크라이나 관련)와 중국 정책이 더 공격적일 수 있고, 유럽 동맹 경시, NATO 확대 반대 가능성, 국내 분열과 폭력 위험 우려. 기후 및 투자: 기후변화 심화로 대응 필요. 유망 기술로 풍력(태양광보다 더 투자 필요), 탄소포집·저장(CCS), 그린수소(중기 경제성 가능), 핵융합(중장기 게임체인저 가능성) 제시. 미국 IRA로 수천억~1조 달러 인센티브가 녹색 전환을 가속할 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
scenario let's talk a little bit about AI there's been a lot of hype around this but a major driver of markets so far this year just about every company is mentioning the technology as much as they can within their earnings reports uh are you on this hype train is it helpful for economic growth what do you see well eventually it will be helpful for potential growth productivity economic growth but usually there are significant lags you know where the first digital revolution in the 80s and then where the internet revolution in the early 1990s but was not until the second half of the 1990s that was uh 1896 and 2000 we saw a significant increase in potential growth and productivity growth from two percent towards three and a half and so on so it took about 15 years for that to happen so yeah there is a lot of talk about technological innovation AI machine learning robotic automation cloud computing and Quantum Computing and you name it but we don't see it yet in the aggregate productivity number relatively growth in U.S has been barely one percent slightly lower will in 10 years are we going to see a significant increase is in productivity I'm quite optimistic I'm a productivity Optimist and a technology Optimist but I think there are meaningful lags and the idea will be a surge in economic growth in the next two or three years because of AI and Technology to me seems to be sort of far-fetched at the time where actually there are many other forces that are negative aggregate supply shocks including the globalization decoupling the risking restriction to migration uh aging of population geopolitical depression climate change cyber warfare Global pandemics and you name it so there are many factors that actually are speculationary the reduced growth and increase cost of production in the medium long term technology is going to be deflationary but we might be facing a decade of stagflation before we see the bright light of technology and AI increasing growth and reducing inflation doctor I need a drink after all that um you know even as we think about all of these risks specifically as you were looking at that timeline for when productivity will ensue over these next two to three years plus the longer term effect over the 10-year time span that you had laid out where does where does regulation step in well we know that we may need to regulate AI because there are a number of side effects one of them might be excessive oligopolistic or dual-polistic concentration the second one may be misinformation and this information and affecting elections and other stuff that there are other side consequences you know AI may increase the economic pie but might lead to permanent technological unemployment initially among blue-collar workers than white collars and even some of the creative classes and it might also increase income and wealth inequality because these Innovations are capital intensive skilled by the labor saving so if you own the machines or the cabalones the machine you do well if you're the top 10 distribution of skills education and human capital AI makes you more productive if you're a low value added or media value-added blue color and white collar increasingly your job in is going to be threatened by technology so we'll have to have a bigger social safety net and tax the winners and then redistribute income to those who are left behind to address also the socio-economic consequences of technology so there'll be also these negative side effects that require intelligent types of regulation of course while we have you here we're also looking to and perhaps through another major event that could greatly impact not only us the economy but the global economy and that's the 2024 presidential election it's already starting to ramp up I would love to get your thoughts as you kind of game out what could potentially take place here and what impact it could have certainly that political uncertainty is going to lead to policies and certainty not just policy and certainty about economic policies of course the economic policies of Trump would be very different from those of uh Biden but also the geopolitical consequences uh you know if Trump had been empowered this time around I would say that Russia would already have taken over all of Ukraine and his policies towards the Russia Ukraine conflict are kind of we don't care about it uh is it going to be more aggressive even more aggressive than Biden on China possibly so where the Cold War getting colder where to find a modus revending with China uh if we escalate this conflict eventually there could be you know a hot War so there are both differences in economic policies in taxation policies in regulatory policies but also in foreign policy and job politics they're going to have a meaningful effect of course on the economy on the markets and overall policy uncertainty is not good for the economy uh nurio I want to ask you with uh former president Trump as the leading Contender for the Republican Party despite the allegations being levied against him given where that stands and what could potentially happen what does that do to the U.S in terms of its superpower status um well I would say that it challenges their superpower status of the US in a several Dimension Dimension number one is that we need to cultivate our allies and when Trump was in power we have an attitude towards Europe that was uh condescending to say the least even spoke about being in favor of a breakup of the Eurozone and the European Union I'm not sure that he would have supported the expansion of NATO I'm not sure that he would have supported uh being aggressive the way we are right we are against the brutal Russian invasion of uh of Ukraine and his attitude has always been of causing up to dictators and not actually be friendly with liberal democracies that have to be our friends and allies so that we have not only hard power but also soft power so I worry that uh uh Trump presidency first might lead to further divisions within our own country more partisanship there is even risk of unfortunately violence but you can also divide the US in terms of his own self-power relative to allies relative to the global South and relative to the world that's a risk that we're facing just lastly while we have you here a lot of Us coming off of what we saw last week especially in the Northeast in the U.S in the wildfires that took place in in Canada and ultimately really wreak havoc on air quality here in New York and some other states as well when we think about where BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has emphasized that climate plays a risk and the priority investors in business should kind of really kind of put out on investing in Sustainable Solutions how much importance do you believe that these Solutions play as as an economic overhang as well well it's clear that climate change is becoming worse and worse and we need to do something about it you know the good news is there are some technologies that are showing promise one of them of course is renewable and we have to invest even more into wind than solar a second one is uh carbon capture and sequestration three over time clean and then green hydrogen might become economically viable and maybe over the medium term the killer technology might be Fusion that might allows us to create unlimited amount of energy and low cost with net zero emissions but we have to invest into these new technologies the good news that the passage of the IRA is going to provide hundreds of billions of dollars some people say up to a trillion of dollars of incentives to invest into a variety of design green renewable and other Technologies they're going to be accelerating the green transition we need so things looked pretty ugly and we need to do more but we do have the technology and now the tax incentive to accelerated this needed green transition all right we will have to leave it there always great to have you on our thanks to you noriel rabini NYU professor emeritus for the stern School of Business we appreciate you
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