저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인/금 비율이 바닥을 형성했고 비트코인이 변동성 있는 상승 추세를 재개할 것이라 주장. 근거로 실질 인플레이션(트루플레이션 약 1.75%, 근원 1% 초반)이 공식 CPI(4.2%)보다 훨씬 낮고, 연준 워킹그룹이 민간 데이터 활용을 늘려 정책이 바뀔 수 있다고 봄. 달러는 금리 차이로 강세가 예상되며(Kalshi 104.9 전망), 이는 비트코인에 역풍일 수 있다는 모순도 지적됨.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin has bottomed out. This is Katie Wood's prediction, and she is confident in it . It came almost as a random phrase at the end of a lengthy analysis, between the gold chart and the credit spread chart. But it's worth highlighting and considering this separately, because Wood doesn't just make predictions about Bitcoin.
Ark has spent years building an entire investment thesis around this asset, despite downturns that have silenced many of its more vocal critics. So when she says that the bottom formation process is complete, it carries much more weight than a simple comment. The difficulty is that this forecast does not exist on its own.
It is part of a broader macroeconomic argument about inflation, the dollar, and the Fed. And you won't be able to understand why she believes Bitcoin has bottomed out without first understanding this bigger picture. So that's how we'll break it down. We will start with the Bitcoin prediction itself , and then move on to the forces that she says will determine the further development of events, verifying each of them, rather than simply repeating what was said.
Let's begin. We watched the S&P relative to everything else. This is an indicator of well-being. We believe that oil is a leading indicator of another indicator. You can see that welfare collapsed in the 70s early 80s, according to this measure. And recently it has been under threat again due to the Strait of Hormuz and the war in Iran.
But he is recovering well. And on the next page, an even stronger indicator of true well-being. The S&P collapsed again relative to gold in the 1970s. This threatened to happen again here. It did come out below the range, which made us a little wary. Although the S &P to crude oil ratio did not confirm this.
Nevertheless, we are happy to see it on the rise again , and we believe it still has a long way to go in this technological revolution. Here is Bitcoin to gold. Gold is falling. Bitcoin was also falling. It seems to be in the process of forming a bottom right now. We believe that on this basis it has bottomed out and will resume the very volatile but overall uptrend that you see on this chart.
And just two more graphs. Are credit markets warning us about something ? No, everything is calm, even despite the outflow of capital from private loans. I saw that Blue Owl had to cap two of its private credit funds at 5% again. I think one of them had about 40% withdrawal requests. So even despite this, they remain calm.
These are bank credit default swaps. And, in essence, this means that events in the world of private lending do not affect the banking system, and therefore will not become a systemic problem. Gold continues to fall in price. Bitcoin also fell, moving in parallel with it for some time. Wood believes that Bitcoin's decline on this basis is over.
She describes this as a bottoming out in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and says she expects a resumption of the long-term volatile uptrend the asset has been exhibiting for years. This is a short and direct prediction, but the context behind it is important. She doesn't see this as a new discovery. It's more like a confirmation of a position she's held during much more difficult market periods, now that the chart is giving her a signal she's ready to react to.
However, it is worth separating observations from evidence. The claim that the ratio is supposedly bottoming out is just a signal on the chart, not a confirmed reversal. Similar patterns have broken and re -formed many times in Bitcoin's history. What makes this particular forecast noteworthy is not just the graph itself.
It's all the things she puts out around him. Because that's where the main argument really lies. And if Wood is right that the bottom has already been reached, then a scenario is possible where prices start to rise before most people are ready for it . This was the case in every previous cycle. Bottom never feels like bottom the moment it is reached.
And by the time this becomes apparent, the cheapest coins have already been snapped up. What you definitely don't want is to be scrambling to figure out storage while the market is taking a beating . That's why I use Bitbox 02, developed by Swiss engineers and a security team, completely open source so every line of code is auditable, and it sets up in less than 5 minutes with a backup on a micro SD.
They also released the Bitbox 02 Nova. Connects via , any platform, no adapters. The tedious work of setting up a system is easiest to do when nothing exciting is happening. Bitbox makes it simple. The first link in the description will give you a 5% discount. The macro justification for Wood's Bitcoin prediction begins with a number that may surprise you, as it suggests that inflation is already much lower than official data shows.
Now on to the next chart, which we have shown many times before. This is a comparison of core CPI and core PPI. Core PPI inflation is higher than core CPI inflation. This indicates one of two things. Either consumer goods companies are suffering from shrinking margins, or they are using artificial intelligence and automation in general to improve efficiency and preserve profits.
This is a phenomenon, and we believe it will continue for some time. On the next slide, you can see an inflation indicator that has been in use for a long time. This is not a new measure of inflation. It has been around since 2010 and tracks tens of thousands of products in real time every day. You can see what he's saying about overall inflation now.
It indicates a level of around 1.75%. This is significantly lower, in fact, less than half of the CPI rate of 4.2%. In the following graph, you can see that core inflation, as measured by Trueflation, is just over 1%. Maybe this is what long-term Treasuries are looking at, or this is one of the signals they are targeting, and that is why the yield curve is flattening again.
On the next slide, we'll move on to employment issues. These employment figures were crazy. Household employment fell by approximately 500,000 people. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000, half the rate economists had expected. So from that perspective, it was a very weak report . This graph shows that this employment rate rarely declines without a recession, which you can see in the shaded areas.
What may be happening is that companies are not hiring as quickly as they used to and are relying more on artificial intelligence. Wood is referring to an inflation indicator that tracks tens of thousands of prices in real time every day since 2010. By this measure, headline inflation is currently around 1.75%.
This is less than half of the official CPI figure of 4.2%. Core inflation according to the same private indicator is even lower— just over 1%. This is a significant gap, and it's worth pondering it for a moment, rather than quickly passing by. If the real inflation rate is closer to 1–2% rather than 4%, this fundamentally changes the entire discussion around interest rates that is currently ongoing.
Lower real inflation means less reason for the Fed to remain tight-lipped and less reason for long-term yields to remain as high as before. This also directly impacts her view on Bitcoin, as falling real interest rates and real inflation tend to create favorable conditions for longer- dated, higher- risk assets.
But it's fair to ask why there is such a big gap between these two indicators in the first place. Government inflation data is based on a fixed consumer basket, which is updated slowly and inherently lags behind real price changes. A real-time data feed is more responsive, but it can be more chaotic and less representative of what a typical household actually spends money on each week.
The honest answer is probably that the real figure is somewhere in the middle, not at one extreme, and that nuance is more important than taking any one side. So, I'd like to talk about Kevin Warsh's five working groups . I think he's going back to basics, and I like that because we need significant improvements in monetary policy.
His first working group is on Fed communications. Regarding the Fed's communication, I believe he means that the constant speeches by Fed governors almost daily, which disturb the markets, are completely unnecessary. And we completely agree with that . This provides jobs for high-frequency traders, but in reality, in my opinion, does not benefit the markets at all.
The second group focuses on the Fed's balance sheet, which still stands at $6.7 trillion. That's less than $8.5 trillion . But I believe he will resume quantitative easing at the appropriate time to further reduce the balance sheet. And I just don't know when that right moment will come. He doesn't want to scare the markets.
We know this. And I've often said that quantitative easing is more symbolic to me because it's just reducing the bank reserves at the Fed that haven't been activated in the form of loans. Wood is also noticeably inspired by the work of a number of groups operating within the Fed, one of which is focused entirely on how government economic data is produced and measured.
She expects this to lead to the involvement of private data sources in the process , cross -checking with official government figures, not a complete abolition of government data, but a real improvement in the methods of its creation. This detail is more important than it might seem at first glance.
Much of her broader argument is based on the belief that current government statistics do not reflect what is actually happening in the economy, especially regarding productivity and the labor market during the rapid adoption of AI. If the Fed itself starts to rely more on faster and more detailed private data sources, it could change policy decisions in ways that markets are currently completely oblivious to.
The question of time remains open. Working groups need real time to achieve concrete results, and monetary policy does not change instantly just because the review process begins. This is something to keep an eye on over the next year or two, rather than expecting changes next month. This is important in terms of direction, but it is not an immediate catalyst at all.
We see that currencies around the world, as I mentioned in Japan and Korea, for example, the Japanese yen seems to be at a 40- year low. Approximately 162 yen to the dollar. So they are likely to take more concerted action. We saw that Japan appears to have sold $ 76 billion in Treasury bonds in April in an attempt to support its currency.
This turned out to be not enough. It has fallen to a historic low . We hear this argument, but I wanted to show this graph because there is no mass abandonment of US Treasuries. So, on the next chart, we'll focus on the dollar, and you'll see that this is our Kalshi chart. How high will the dollar be this year ?
You see the number 104.9. It was higher before today's employment report. We'll get to the employment report in a moment. It turned out to be much weaker than expected in many ways . So the dollar forecasts have declined. Most forecasts for monetary tightening have been revised down, and since most people believe that higher interest rates support the dollar, that is true.
The dollar does attract more buyers when interest rates are higher here. But if you notice, you don't see that on this graph. You will see this in the following graph. The dollar is actually at the level, this is yesterday's data. Today it is around 100.5 , somewhere in that range. So bets are being made that the dollar will rise, at least that's what Kalshi's forecast markets believe.
As for the dollar, this directly contradicts the currently popular narrative. The story is widely shared that central banks everywhere are getting rid of US Treasuries and the dollar's dominance is rapidly fading. Her own data tells a different story. The volume of Treasury assets abroad overall continues to grow, even taking into account actual documented sales by countries such as China and India.
She also points to forecast markets that are currently pricing the dollar higher through the end of the year. And she says she agrees with this prediction, attributing her reasoning to the higher return on invested capital in the US compared to the rest of the world. This is the aspect that requires the closest attention, as the strengthening of the dollar and the forecast of Bitcoin reaching the bottom are in some contradiction with each other.
Historically, the strength of the dollar has been a drag on Bitcoin, as a rising dollar typically makes assets denominated in it relatively more attractive and can pull liquidity away from riskier assets in general. Wood nowhere directly addresses this contradiction in his analysis. Her implicit argument for both views simultaneously seems to be based on the idea that stronger growth in the US lifts almost everything at the same time, including Bitcoin, as a long-term bet on technology and monetary changes in the country’s favor.
Whether this logic holds up if the dollar continues to rise through the end of the year is the real test of this entire thesis, and it is worth watching most closely. So what does this actually lead to ? The question we started with was simple. What is really behind Wood's prediction that Bitcoin has already hit its bottom?
The factors she points to are a private inflation indicator that is significantly lower than the official government figures; the Fed, which could move to faster and more accurate data over the next year; and the dollar, which she expects to strengthen, contrary to the popular narrative of its decline.
Overall, its position is a bet on lower real inflation and stronger US growth, which will lift risk assets overall, and Bitcoin will ride this wave. The biggest gap in the argument is the contradiction with the dollar. Strong dollar conditions have historically not been favorable for Bitcoin, and she does not fully address this contradiction in her analysis.
In any case, it is clear that her prediction regarding Bitcoin does not exist in isolation. This is just one part of the much broader macroeconomic picture it paints. And whether this bottom holds likely depends far more on how these global forces resolve themselves over the coming months than on what happens in the crypto market itself.
That's the whole picture for today. Let us know what you think in the comments, and we'll continue to closely monitor developments.
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