저자: JasonBrown · 외국인
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AI/기술주 중심 상승장 지속을 전제로, 마이크로소프트·브로드컴·메타 3종목을 장기 콜옵션 전략으로 추천. 마이크로소프트는 클라우드 성장(분기 매출 764억달러, 클라우드 중심)과 555 신고점 대비 조정 매수 기회를 근거로 함. 브로드컴은 AI 맞춤형 칩 수요와 2027년 AI 매출 전망(600~900억달러)을 근거로 함. 메타는 광고 매출 성장(분기 475억달러, +22%)과 800 근접 고점 대비 조정을 근거로 함. 각 종목 2026년 6월 18일 만기 콜옵션 제시.
다듬은 글
It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks, three charts, and three trades. Rick DuPree will take us through the charts and here to take you through the trades today is Jason Brown from the brownreport.com and the author of five-year millionaire. Jason, great to have you with us again. Rick, of course, always wonderful to have you in studio.
Jason, can we just start with a big picture thought on the market and you know and how we've seen it perform so far this week? Yeah, good to see you guys. Big picture, the market continues to march ahead higher. The story specifically uh is all about tech and AI and the deals that you see coming out like the new one that was just made with AMD.
And so, tech is still the story on the streets pushing the market higher, but you're also starting to see other sectors participate like energy. Uh you saw also a pop from the healthcare sector and some other sectors are starting to give the market a lift, but tech is still the major story that's pushing the markets higher.
Yeah, tech continues to be our driver. That AI trade, which of course brings us to your first trade, which is Microsoft. You know, Morgan Stanley just came out, said they think and I quote that Microsoft remains the clearest beneficiary of gen AI spend. Does that have anything to do with why they're your first trade?
Yeah, well, primarily Microsoft is my first trade for two different reasons, which I'll talk about the technicals in a second. I know Rick will walk through it, but first just from a big picture, Microsoft is the number one player inside the corporate space. And when you look at the people that are spending money on AI, it's corporations.
It's not the end consumer that's spending this money. It's the corporations that are spending this money. And when you look at their most recent quarter, 76.4 billion in revenue, which was up 46.7 billion of it was cloud-based business. And so, they're just crushing it with respect to the cloud and that's just with their corporate customers, let alone what could happen once they roll it down to the end users and consumers.
The second thing is, when you look at companies that are working and tried and true like Microsoft, they had earnings and then the stock popped up to about Let me pull up the chart here. Microsoft popped up to 555 after earnings and then you have that pullback back to the $500 price level. So, you're getting about a $55 discount and different from stocks that are making all-time highs, we we don't know how high they can go before they end up reversing.
We know that this one can get back to 555. So, I like it from a technical and a fundamental standpoint. All right, Rick. So, with that, let's take a look at the technicals here on Microsoft. Hey, as long as they don't mess with Excel, I'm happy, I'll just say. But, you know, Jason's shirt, you never go broke taking a profit.
The question is how big can you let your profit get when you're hoping for an experience of these runaway gains? So, that's one of the difficult questions to answer in trading here. But, for now though, that upside boundary in the shorter term would probably be around this area is where many traders will be looking.
That was our best closing price near 535. So, we did have intraday highs far beyond that point as Jason said near 555, but that might be one place to consider going forward here. 520, our low point here well after it was broken through to the downside here became a resistance area. So, old support became new resistance.
520 is about where we've bottomed out so far today. So, another supportive area to watch out for. You could draw a shorter term trend line going like this as well. We're still roughly in line with that area. But, to me, the broader pattern was this more gradual symmetrical triangle here that we see with our 500, our green line, being a notable low point.
Once again, one of these uh areas where price seems to have found some footing. We can look at our moving averages now. We can see that between 500 and 520, we have our two moving averages, yellow 21-day, orange 63-day. So, those are other areas to consider. Uh but, RSI, mostly just like price, hanging on to that shorter term trend line here.
So, look for price to break downward and RSI to break downward in tandem uh for signs of a potential trend shift here. But, for now, as we said, you know, holding on to that supportive area. If we were to look at volume profile, we have cleared the heavy volume area here near 510. That also includes our yearly linear regression line, our fair value line of best fit near about 508.
So, that also stands out as a supportive area on that road back to the the highs near three or 535 in terms of the closes. All right. So, Jason, we've taken a look at the fundamentals. We've taken a look at the at the chart here. We've seen the technicals. Walk us through your trade here for Microsoft.
Yeah, so I'm looking at long going long call options out to June 18th, 2026. I like to give it some buffer so you can get through a couple different earning seasons. I'm looking at the strike price of 480. You're going to pay about 78 uh debit for that. It might be a little bit lower since the stock's down $3 today.
Your break even, you're looking at 558. More importantly, you got 252 days for that stock to be above 558. We already know it can get back to the 550 level and obviously if it gets there before the time expires, that's where we lock in our profit. And again, being cautiously bullish in this market, you want to look at stocks that are tried and true, but that have pulling back a little bit that are giving you a second chance chance entry.
And Microsoft is one of those stocks. All right. So, now let's talk about your next one here. Another performer, Broadcom. We're seeing Broadcom up about 86% from its April lows. Why is this your next pick? So again, with AI being all the all the rage, you see the deals that's been happening with AMD, the deals that happened with Nvidia.
Broadcom is still in that playbook as well because companies want their own custom chips for their own custom application and Broadcom is the company to go to for that. When you look at it from a fundamental standpoint, they're up 15.95 billion, up 220% year over year. And then they have 7 billion of free cash flow.
But, here's the kicker. When they looked at their projections for AI, they're projecting that this could be a 60 to 90 billion dollar industry just for them by 2027. So, that's a lot of upside to go with the chip making and semiconductor space. And then when you take a look at the stock, it pulled back from 372 to as low as 330.
So again, we got another tried and true name that's in an uptrend giving us a support back and giving us a second chance entry in a bonafide uptrend. So, that's why I like Broadcom here. All right, Rick. So, what is the chart telling us in Broadcom? Sure. So, uh Broadcom is one of these names that maybe not exactly a household name, but one that is worthy of one of the upper edges of that that magnificent seven stock group here.
So, we can see now that after a brief pullback here, we had our earnings gap to the upside here. We established a relative low near about 325. That's about where things bottomed out. So, we didn't fill the gap, but we did take out the the post gap low that we formed initially around that 330 level. So, for now, those are the boundaries to watch to the downside.
You could also consider 308.78 to be exact here. That's where the gap began. So, maybe around 309 or so. The ceiling for right now, 348, our red line here. That's our short-term range where price has topped out repeatedly here. But, you know, really this type of price activity is something that really stands out here because we had our big gap up.
We had now our brief period of horizontal to downward consolidation. We are testing it to the upside. This is usually regarded as kind of a bull pennant, bull flag type of activity here. But, you know, it's it's a question mark a little bit still because we still have not crossed above this threshold near 348.
So, that would be the potential tipping point in the short term. So, if we were to consider RSI, our momentum study here, trending upward here, bounced off of our the 50 midline, downward sloping red trend line is broken, matching up with this breakout from our short-term downward price trend line here going off those highs.
We're above our moving averages, they're trending upward here. We're seeing momentum accelerating. So, the breakout seems like we could be primed for a push above that level. Then we get the cascade of orders that triggers the runaway price activity or so the bulls would hope. Volume profile shows that the heavy volume is right around here, 340, right around where the prices are right now.
We're starting to drift through the upper edges of that. So, that's what you would want to see if you were hoping for a push upward. Plus one standard deviation channel though comes in quite close to those old highs. 370, that general area is about where things have topped out. Downward looking more toward the supportive side here around 300.
That's the next volume node that really sticks out. All right. We're trading just about $4 below that 348 level you highlighted right about 344 right now. Jason, walk us through your trade for this one. Again, another one I'm sending out to 2026. I'm looking at the June 18th call option strike price 300.
You're going to pay about $82 per contract. Your break even is 382. You got 252 days for that stock to get back above 382. And when you look at the charts, again, Broadcom, it is just was just at 374. You got a whole 'nother year for it to come off that 10, 20, 50-day moving average that it's bouncing off of and head back higher.
I think we get there maybe by the end of the year, but we'll see. We got time on this one. So, I like to have time. I never like to give a trade without my I'm wrong level. I didn't give it on the last one, but on this one, you want to still be cautious. If we get a breakdown below 330, you either want to roll into put options or you want to consider taking a small loss because the trend has changed.
All right. And your last trade is Meta, which is up on the day despite the rest of the broader markets being under pressure. Why is Meta a pick for you today? So, I like Meta. It's a little bit of diversification from the AI trade. We're not caught up in what happens with China or who's going to be spending more on semiconductors or who OpenAI is going to be making an announcement with.
This is just good old blocking and tackling with a fundamental company that does marketing and everyone needs a place to get their ads, their product in front of people and Facebook is that company that has everyone's attention from threads to Instagram to obviously the the regular Facebook platform.
And when you look at their revenue, 47.5 to billion up 22% last quarter and from a technical analysis standpoint, the stock gapped up back in August and ran just shy of $800 and so we got a pullback down to about a 719 level. So you're talking about $80 pullback and I know Rick's going to go through the chart.
The stock is kind of in a nice well-defined channel. So it's giving us a low risk high reward entry of where the stock can get back to if it can run back up that 80 points to the top of resistance. All right, Rick. So where is the top of resistance here as we look at the technicals and then what are they showing us?
Yeah, you know, unfortunately I went a bit more granular. I can't, you know, show you exactly what Jason was referring to. But for your question about where the top is, right around here, this level near about the high 790s, 795, 796, that's about where things were topping out notably here. And if we were to backtrack a little bit and dissect the price action more, you can see we had a notable gap upward here.
If we were to start with the low point that was formed afterward, you could connect these trend lines here. Then we had a breakdown. Price had some consolidated behavior here near 725, our red line. You can see that was highs then lows. Now it is resistance once more in the shorter term. You could also have said there was another shorter term trend line here, our downward sloping channel between our two blue dash lines.
You can see here as well though, even though we had some fluctuations below that level on an intraday basis, the closing price lines up quite well. The closing prices are typically regarded as more important than intraday prices here. Nevertheless, our our channel line lines up quite closely with that resistance area here.
So 725 sticks out once more. When we look at our other studies here, our moving averages here, they are clustered together closely right in that general point near 735, 736. That could be another short-term speed bump if we were trying to retest some of these other levels here, 745, which represents some shorter-term relative low points before we had our breakdown.
RSI pretty low here, 41 is where we're coming in right now. Trending upward though, making new relative highs and showing even perhaps a little bit of bullish divergence here. We can see RSI making a new relative high even though price has not made a higher close relatively speaking here. So a sign of potential momentum building up in this name.
Our volume nodes come in here near about 714 and here near about 760. So those are the the potential congestion areas as well. 690 here, a repeated low point. That's where things could start to go awry if we get too far below that level. All right, trading about 10% lower than those high points you pointed out to us right now.
So Jason, is this one another long-term trade or is this a shorter-term trade for Meta? Absolutely, we're going long-term because you got we're going into earning season not not too long from now and so we want to have time for this to play out despite what might happen in earning season. So we're looking at June 18th, 2026, 660 strike, paying about 129 for those contracts.
Your break even is at 789, but again, the stock ran up to just below 800. So we know that it could potentially get back there at least that's our target place and then we got 252 days on the time frame. My I'm wrong level as Rick pointed out, that 690 level is where, you know, you got a broader range of support.
I have a I'm wrong level at about 700. So again, a breakdown below that 700 level, we want to start to question if the trend is changing, if the stock is breaking down. All right. Well, thank you both for being with us to do the big three today, Jason Brown for the picks and Rick DuPreez, of course, for walking us through the technicals every day.
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